736
FXUS62 KJAX 041635
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1135 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Possible Early on Thursday & Friday Mornings Inland.

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today at Northeast FL Beaches.
  Moderate Risk at the Southeast GA Beaches. Moderate Risk at
  All Area Beaches from Thurs through the Weekend.

- Minor Tidal Flooding within Portions of the St. Johns River
  Basin. Minor Flooding During Times of High Tide in Putnam and
  Western Flagler Counties.

- Isolated Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorm Potential through
  Friday. Main Impact Area Later Today: Suwannee Valley and
  Inland Southeast GA.

&&

.UPDATE...

Late morning surface analysis depicts slowly weakening high
pressure (1028 millibars) stretching from Atlantic Canada
southward to Bermuda, to the east of Cape Cod, with this feature
extending its axis westward along the southeastern seaboard.
Meanwhile, coastal troughing remains situated over our near
shore Atlantic waters. Otherwise, a lengthy cold front stretches
from the Upper Midwest southward through the Tennessee and
Lower Mississippi Valleys, with a pre-frontal trough progressing
slowly eastward across the FL panhandle. Aloft...ridging aloft
remains in place along the U.S. eastern seaboard, with this
feature deflecting a potent shortwave trough northeastward
through the Upper Midwest, while another shortwave was moving
eastward across the Intermountain West. Latest GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a moist air
mass prevails across our region, with PWATs generally ranging
from 1.5 to 1.75 inches across most of our area. Deeper moisture
is located just west of the Suwannee River along a pre- frontal
trough and for locations south of Interstate 4 in the FL
peninsula. Brisk southeasterly flow and the presence of the
coastal trough was driving light showers and sprinkles inland
along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor, mainly for locations north
of I-10. Otherwise, convection firing along the pre-frontal
trough was moving northward from Apalachee Bay and onshore along
eastern portions of the FL panhandle and Big Bend region.
Unseasonably warm and humid conditions otherwise continue across
our area, with temperatures at 16Z rising through the upper 70s
and lower 80s, with dewpoints mostly in the upper 60s and lower
70s.

Ridging aloft along the southeastern seaboard will continue to
deflect a potent shortwave trough east-northeastward from the
Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes states through tonight.
This weather pattern will tend to slow the forward progress of
an associated surface cold front and pre-frontal trough through
tonight, with a low level jet remaining positioned to the
northwest of our region across central and northern portions of
AL and GA, extending into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
Convection pushing northward from Apalachee Bay across the FL
Big Bend / eastern FL panhandle and southwestern GA will tend to
encounter a more stable air mass over inland portions of
southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley this afternoon. However,
enough moisture and potential interaction of convective outflows
with other mesoscale boundaries such as the Gulf sea breeze and
the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze should develop scattered
showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms this afternoon,
mainly for locations along the I-75 corridor in the Suwannee
Valley and north central FL as well as locations west of the
U.S. Highway 301 corridor in interior southeast GA. Cirrostratus
cloud cover emanating from the ongoing convection over
Apalachee Bay will migrate eastward across our area this
afternoon, also limiting instability at inland locations. Highs
will climb to the mid 80s at most inland locations, with breezy
east-southeasterly winds keeping coastal locations in the upper
70s to lower 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

Main Highlights:

- Dense Fog Possible Early on Thursday Morning Inland.

With a relaxing local pressure gradient, winds will be allowed
to decouple tonight. Lighter winds combined with lingering
boundary layer moisture will result in the potential for fog
development for much of the area by early Thursday morning.
Above seasonable temperatures continue, with overnight lows in
the mid to upper 60s area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Dense Fog Possible Early on Friday morning.

Warm and unseasonably humid conditions will persist through the
end of the week. An upstream cold front will stall well to the
west, leading to warm and a marginally unstable airmass
Thursday afternoon. Generally light low level flow will be in
place with diurnal winds driven by the Gulf and Atlantic sea
breeze. While the airmass will be somewhat unstable, dry air
aloft should generally mitigate any deep convection from
developing; however, widely scattered low-top showers will be
possible during the afternoon.

By Friday, the stalled front will regain momentum as an upper
trough pivots into the deep south. Progressive trough will
sweep across the region through Friday night pushing the
prefrontal trough and trailing cold front southeastward through
the region. This appears to be a dry frontal passage with
moisture being limited along it but cannot rule out a couple of
showers across SE GA during the afternoon and over NE FL
overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Before the front pushes through, there will be favorable
conditions for early morning fog and low stratus on Friday
morning, which could be locally dense.

Unseasonable warmth will continue with highs in the mid 80s to
close out the week and overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected this Weekend.

Drier west-northwestelry flow will usher in drier and noticeably
cooler air this weekend. Though there is some uncertainty in the
upper level pattern evolution, the consensus is dry conditions
with bouts of high clouds Sunday into early next week as
trailing shortwave energy passes over the deep south.
Temperatures will fall below normal behind the front with highs
dropping into the low 70s by Sunday while lows fall into the
mid/upper 40s in SE GA and Suwannee Valley and into the low 50s
for NE FL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the daytime
and evening hours. As the Atlantic sea breeze moves inland a few
showers may develop near the KGNV terminal but chances remain
less than 20%. Otherwise, easterly winds will prevail through
the afternoon with gusts around 15 knots. Winds will settle down
around 22z and trend calm through the overnight hours. While
widespread fog doesn`t appear as likely to impact area terminals
Thursday morning, shallow ground fog may develop at inland
airfields after 06z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure shifts further eastward into the western Atlantic
as a cold front moves into the southeastern states today into
tonight. Coastal troughing over the area weakens with winds and
seas subsiding to caution levels for the offshore waters today.
The cold front slows its progress allowing winds to shift to
southeasterly on Thursday then southwesterly on Friday. The cold
front moves through the area late Friday into Saturday with
winds shifting to northwesterly then northerly in its wake this
weekend. A reinforcing cold front will then cross our local
waters on Sunday night and Monday morning, with high pressure
building into the southeastern states providing a surge of
breezy northerly winds in the wake of this frontal passage.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

A high risk of rip currents continues this afternoon at the
northeast FL beaches, while a higher end moderate risk is
expected at the southeast GA beaches. Surf heights are only
gradually decreasing, with 3-5 foot breakers expected to
continue through Thursday at the northeast FL beaches. Onshore
winds will weaken on Thursday and will shift to an offshore
direction by Friday. However, a lingering easterly ocean swell
will still yield a moderate risk at all area beaches from
Thursday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Winds will continue to decrease through the end of the week as a
cold front approaches. Today, easterly to southeasterly winds
are expected with the Atlantic sea breeze developing this
afternoon. As winds ease up Thursday, dispersions will fall to
poor or low levels, especially at the coast. A weak and mostly
dry cold front will push across Friday night, ushering in a
drier and cooler airmass over the weekend and into early next
week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas to widespread
fog will be possible during the predawn and early morning hours
on Thursday and Friday across the area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Water levels within most of the St. Johns River basin continue
to gradually decline with each successive high tide cycle,
with gauges now reporting peak levels mostly in the action stage
(below minor flooding) from around Racy Point northward. We
have thus discontinued the Coastal Flood Advisory for all but
Putnam and western Flagler Counties, where tides continue to
reach 1.5 to 2 feet above normally dry ground during times of
high tide (minor flooding). Recent heavy rainfall over central
FL may allow elevated water levels to linger for locations along
the St. Johns River and its tributaries near Lake George and
Crescent Lake during the next several days as the floodwater
drains northward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  66  84  66 /  40  40  10   0
SSI  79  68  79  66 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  84  67  84  66 /  20  20  10  10
SGJ  82  69  82  67 /  10  10  10   0
GNV  85  67  86  67 /  40  30  10  10
OCF  85  67  86  68 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for FLZ038-137.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$