581
FXUS62 KJAX 160524
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
124 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1026
millibars) centered to the southeast of Bermuda, with this feature
extending its axis westward across central FL. Meanwhile, a wavy
frontal boundary extends from the Southern Plains eastward across
the Ozarks, the Ohio Valley, and the Delmarva region.
Aloft...deep-layered ridging extends from the southwestern
Atlantic waters across the FL peninsula and into the southeast
Gulf, while a de-amplifying trough was progressing eastward
across the southern Appalachians, with the base of this decaying
trough positioned over the Deep South. Latest GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep tropical
moisture blankets our region, with PWAT values generally in the
1.8 - 2 inch range. Thunderstorms have erupted along mesoscale
boundaries this afternoon, especially along the I-95 and U.S.
Highway 17 corridors, with widely scattered storms elsewhere
across inland southeast GA and north central FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east this period, with
the ridge extending across forecast area. An upper high will also be
centered to the east this period. As a result of this pattern,
the flow will remain from south southwest. The east coast sea
breeze will move inland each afternoon, but the flow will limit
its progress. Convection will initiate across the area in the late
morning to early afternoon hours, with this activity then
tracking east northeast across the area. The greatest coverage
during the afternoon/evening hours of Monday and Tuesday will
likely be over eastern counties due to sea breeze interactions.
The upper ridge will help to reduce instability, limiting severe
potential. With loss of diurnal heating, convective activity will
diminish during the evening hours, with dry overnights.

Highs will be in the lower 90s Monday, and a few degrees higher
Tuesday. Heat indices will reach the 100 to 105 range Tuesday. Lows
will be in the lower to mid 70s, with warmest readings near the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

High pressure will remain centered to the east through Thursday.
This pattern will keep the south southwest flow going, with
diurnally driven convection, and an afternoon focus over eastern
counties due to sea breeze interactions.

A trough will develop south across southeastern states Thursday
night into Friday, as high moves away to the east southeast. The
troughing aloft Friday will lead to added instability. Convection
will initiate due to diurnal instability in the late morning/early
afternoon, with upper instability leading to greater coverage of
storms, and an increased potential for strong to severe storms.

The trough will lift out Friday night into Saturday, with high
pressure building to the northeast Sunday. Scattered to numerous
storms Saturday and Sunday afternoon, but potential for strong to
severe will not be as great as Friday.

Temperatures will continue to run above average this period, with
the warmest days on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

VFR cigs at or above 15 kft over the area at this time and will
slowly erode. Possible MVFR vsby for VQQ, and some restrictions
possible for GNV over the next several hours. Any patchy fog or a
low stratus deck should dissipate 12z-14z, with scattered cumulus
developing by late morning. Convection will initiate west of the
TAF sites by 16z, mainly near or west of I-75. Overall for the
afternoon and early evening, good chances for showers and storms
for coastal northeast FL TAFs and at SSI so have included TEMPO
groups, and for now will leave GNV with PROB30 group. Showers and
storms should be winding down by 01z-03z with activity pushing off
to the east- northeast and dissipating.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Atlantic high pressure centered to the southeast of Bermuda will
continue to extend its axis westward across the Florida peninsula
tonight and Monday, keeping a prevailing south southwesterly wind
flow across our area. Showers and thunderstorms will impact our
local waters during the afternoon and early evening hours, with a
few strong storms possible, bringing briefly gusty winds, frequent
lightning strikes, and torrential downpours. Atlantic high
pressure will then lift its axis northward towards our local
waters on Tuesday and Wednesday, likely resulting in less
afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage as southeasterly winds
prevail. Atlantic high pressure will then shift its axis southward
across the Florida peninsula late this week as a cold front enters
the southeastern states, resulting in prevailing southwesterly
winds and increasing chances for late afternoon and evening
thunderstorms by Friday. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail both
near shore and offshore for the rest of the upcoming week.

Rip Currents: Onshore winds following the passage of the sea
breeze will combine with a persistent easterly ocean swell to
create a lower end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches
through Monday afternoon. A low risk forecast at the southeast GA
beaches beginning on Tuesday due to low surf heights, with
prevailing onshore winds keeping a lower end moderate risk in
place at the northeast FL beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1128 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Southwesterly transport winds will prevail this afternoon through
Monday, creating fair to good daytime dispersion values at most
inland locations. Breezy onshore surface winds following the
passage of the afternoon sea breeze at coastal locations will
yield poor to fair daytime dispersion values through Monday.
Elevated mixing heights will combine with breezy southwesterly
transport winds on Tuesday to create high daytime dispersion
values across inland portions of southeast GA, with good values
generally forecast for inland northeast and north central FL, with
fair values at coastal locations due to prevailing onshore surface
winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  92  73 /  40  30  40  10
SSI  89  77  90  77 /  50  30  40  10
JAX  93  74  94  74 /  50  30  50  10
SGJ  90  74  92  75 /  60  30  50  10
GNV  93  74  95  73 /  60  20  50  10
OCF  92  74  95  73 /  80  30  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$