635
FXUS62 KJAX 310624
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
224 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend,
  includes: Coastal Flood Warning for localized Moderate
  Flooding along the middle St. Johns River and a Coastal Flood
  Advisory along the Atlantic Coast and lower St Johns River.

- High Rip Current Risk and High Surf at all Area Beaches
  through Sunday.

- Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flooding Possible Sunday
  Afternoon through Monday Evening, especially along the coast
  where focused rain bands may develop.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Minor to locally Moderate tidal flooding continues along the
  St Johns River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

Backdoor cold front is currently situated over North Carolina
will continue making a southern push into the area through this
morning, stalling and weakening almost directly across the area
this evening and tonight. A "fresh" high pressure ridge will
build down the southeastern seaboard in its wake throughout the
day today, tightening the pressure gradient a bit and therefore
enhancing the onshore flow once again. Ahead of the front, a
diffuse band of showers currently streaming onshore the
northeast FL coast is expected to pivot northward this morning,
taking advantage of better lift and moisture ahead of the
front. This will shift rain chances more so towards coastal I-10
corridor and northward, though a few showers will be possible
across much of northeast FL overall with the continued onshore
flow and the weakening frontal boundary stalling near northeast
FL.

Breezier overall over inland areas today, though only a few mph
breezier on average for the coast and St. Johns River where the
onshore flow has been persistent. This will keep up/reinforce
coastal and beach hazards today and through Sunday, as a high
risk for rip currents, elevated surf, and coastal flooding will
persist. The good news is astronomical influence continues to
subside this weekend, and therefore not expecting a significant
increase in tidal flooding potential. Mostly minor flooding is
forecast (around 1.5- 2ft above normal dry ground) at times of
high tide, with moderate flooding (around or just over 2ft above
dry ground) expected in portions of the St. Johns River near
Putnam County.

Tonight, scattered showers will persist at times, especially
over north FL where the weak boundary settles. Lows will range
from the low to mid 60s north to the low 70s south and east,
after high temps in the mid 70s to low 80s for most this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal flooding and surf hazards continue.

- Heavy rain and localized flooding possible, especially along
  the coast Sunday night into Monday

Despite the persistent onshore flow in place and coastal
hazards continuing through Sunday and early next week, there
will be wetter conditions during this period. The primary
features will be a diffuse stationary front draped across
central FL while an upper shortwave gradually lifts out of the
eastern Gulf. Though the trough is trending slightly slower,
compared to 24 hours ago, the associated with it is likely to
induce a surface wave of low pressure along the stalled frontal
zone. Taking the strong ascent, deeper moisture (PWATs up to
1.75"), and enhanced convergence, it`s likely that several bouts
of heavy rain and coastal banding will develop through the late
afternoon Sunday and continuing through the overnight hours
into Monday, especially for the NE FL zones. While isolated
thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, especially
toward the I-75 corridor, available buoyancy is expected to be
marginal and be more conducive to heavy rain showers.

Spread among guidance in terms of how much rain remains a bit
wide, but reasonable expectations are around 2-3" with locally
higher amounts. As of right now, WPC has an areawide "Marginal
Risk" of excessive rainfall and focused "Slight Risk", highlight
the heavy rain/flood potential Sunday into Monday. Heavier
rainfall may continue along the coast throughout Monday as an
inverted coastal trough develops in the wake of the passing wave
of low pressure.

Damp and overcast conditions will keep temperature readings in
the upper 70s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential returns Thursday.

- Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone
  conditions.

Moist, local nor`easter conditions being to relent during the
first half of next week as trough digs across the southern tier
of the CONUS. As the system pushes toward the region steering
flow will veer to the southeast helping to alleviate the tidal
flooding with the St Johns River. There remains fair agreement
among clustered ensembles, deterministic and AI models that the
amplified upper trough will push a cold front in from the west
around Thursday next week. Trends over the last 24 hours suggest
the front may slow or stall across the southeast as the parent
trough ejects to the northeast. While the potential for severe
thunderstorms appears low, it can`t be ruled out entirely.
Temperatures will initially warm amid the southeasterly flow but
should cool slightly to seasonable readings with the front
Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

MVFR and IFR ceilings remain stubborn across the region early
this morning. This trend is expected to continue through the
morning hours except at SSI. Ceilings are expected to improve
late morning and into the afternoon as winds also pick up with
another surge of northeasterly winds. The good news is VFR is
expected to prevail at this time later today and through this
evening while this surge occurs. The other main factor through
tonight and the rest of today will be SHRA potential, especially
with a weakening front dropping southward today. At this time,
only confident enough to include VCSH with the coverage
expected, though TEMPO groups may be necessary for higher
impacts overnight and through today, especially closer to the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...

A strong high pressure ridge will build southward across area waters
today behind a weakening cold front. This ridging will then wedge
down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. A
slight surge in northeasterly winds today will return hazards across
the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary
frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida
peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local
waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region
towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the
northwest.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all
area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow
arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7
feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once
again this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will lead to strengthening northeasterly winds through
the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily along
the I-75 corridor with a passing wave of low pressure. Rain chances
stick around through early next week, favoring the coast and I-95
corridor. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then
southerly by midweek as speeds diminish. Otherwise, mild and humid
conditions continue.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible
across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for mostly minor
coastal flooding along the coast, ICW and portions of the St
Johns River through the weekend. Coastal Flood Warning only
continues for eastern Putnam County at this time for areas along
the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood
stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles.
ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse
flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river and continuing beach
erosion along the Atlantic coast. Flood levels may rise back
into moderate Sunday into early next week along the St Johns
river.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  63  76  61 /  10  10  20  40
SSI  76  65  74  63 /  50  40  50  50
JAX  79  66  76  63 /  40  30  50  60
SGJ  79  70  77  66 /  30  30  50  70
GNV  83  69  79  65 /  10  20  50  50
OCF  84  70  80  66 /  10  20  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124-
     125-132-138-225-233-325-333-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ137.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ450-452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$