480
FXUS62 KJAX 310543
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
143 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Light showers developing along the Atlantic coast will increase
in coverage as activity shifts southward across the CRG and SGJ
terminals after 08Z. TEMPO groups for IFR conditions during
heavier downpours were used during the predawn and early morning
hours at CRG and SGJ, while confidence was only high enough for a
PROB30 group overnight at SSI. Low MVFR ceilings at JAX and CRG
will expand to the VQQ, GNV, and SGJ terminals after 08Z. Ceilings
at SSI will likely lower to IFR towards 08Z, with these IFR
ceilings overspreading the Duval County terminals before 12Z.
Showers streaming over the CRG and SGJ terminals on Sunday morning
may expand westward to JAX before noon a and then to VQQ by the
mid to late afternoon hours, where PROB30 groups were used.
Isolated thunderstorms may impact the northeast FL terminals on
Sunday, but confidence in timing and coverage was too low to
include a mention at this time. Ceilings will likely lift to low
MVFR at the inland terminals by 15Z and the coastal terminals by
17Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at GNV towards 18Z. A
northeasterly wind surge will arrive at SSI during the predawn and
early morning hours, with sustained surface speeds increasing to
around 15 knots and gusty after 13Z, with these gusty onshore
winds then overspreading the Duval County terminals and SGJ after
15Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Stalled frontal boundary across NE FL, generally positioned along
the I-10 corridor will not shift much through tonight and the deep
moisture in place along with enough diurnal heating today will
help to develop numerous to widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall, with the best chances
along the frontal boundary across NE FL and in the convergent low
level NE flow along the coastal SE GA counties. Details on the
heavy rainfall threat is in the Hydrology section below. Otherwise
this convection will peak during the late afternoon and evening
hours over inland areas, then linger through the overnight hours
over the Atlantic Coastal Waters and along the I-95 corridor, with
the best chances through the overnight hours in the Brunswick
metro area, where the low level NE convergence is greatest and
will be monitored for potential Flood Watch in the next forecast
package. Max temps will top out in the upper 70s/near 80F across
SE GA and into the lower/middle 80s across NE FL this afternoon
where more sunny breaks have occurred. Low temps tonight should
still be able to fall into the upper 60s across inland SE GA,
lower 70s for inland NE FL and middle 70s along the Atlantic
Coastal areas. Some patchy fog possible over inland areas, but
overall abundant cloud cover and continued low level N to NE winds
around 5 mph or so, will lead to more of a lower stratus deck
towards morning with widespread ceilings below 1000 ft over inland
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

High pressure will ridge down the east coast, as a frontal zone
remains nearly stationary over central FL. The high will push the
front a little further south Sunday night through Monday night.

Drier air will advect south into SE GA, with the building ridge. As
a result there will be a significant precipitation gradient from
northwest to southeast across the area, with location of frontal
boundary keeping chances pretty high across north central FL.

The increasing pressure gradient, will result in a a surge of winds
along the coast. The gustier winds will be most noticeable over
SE GA coast Sunday, then all along the coast Monday.

Temperatures will trend below normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

The high pressure ridge will become centered more toward the
northeast through Wednesday, allowing the frontal zone to lift back
north across local area. As a result of frontal convergence, and
greater moisture, daily precipitation chances will increase from
south to north Tuesday into Wednesday.

Frontal troughing will then extend across the area later in the
week. Drier air will advect into the western counties on the
northwest side of the front.

Temperatures will slowly moderate this period, reaching near normal
levels by the end of this period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

A stationary front will linger across the northeast Florida waters
this weekend as strong high pressure over the Great Lakes begins
to wedge down the southeastern seaboard, sending a surge of
northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters from
north to south on Sunday and Small Craft Advisory headlines will
be posted with the upcoming forecast package. Waves of showers and
embedded thunderstorms will impact our local waters this weekend,
with stronger storms capable of producing excessive lightning,
strong winds, and waterspouts. Northeasterly winds will likely
peak at Small Craft Advisory levels on Monday and will then
gradually weaken by late Tuesday and Wednesday. Widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms will continue through midweek, with
less coverage expected ahead of an approaching cold front later in
the week. Prevailing winds will shift to offshore ahead of this
approaching cold front, allowing seas to gradually subside.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents still on track to develop
on Sunday as the Northeast surge of winds pushes down the Atlantic
beachfront locations with surf/breakers into the 2-4 ft range,
with High risk continuing on Labor Day with surf/breakers of 3-5
ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1145 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Will continue to monitor heavy rainfall potential along the I-95
corridor and Atlantic Coastal Counties through the entire Labor
Day weekend and the possibility of Flood Watch issuance as still
expecting 2-4 inch rainfall totals over the next 3 days in this
corridor with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible.
Lesser total rainfall amounts expected over inland areas, but with
daytime heating, any of the isolated thunderstorm activity will
still have heavy rainfall potential in localized convection, but
the main threat will still be along the Atlantic Coastal areas
where narrow convergent rain bands set up in the Northeast flow
pattern that is upcoming with slow or little movement in some of
these bands. This is similar to a situation which set up during
September of last year (2024) which brought heavy downpours and
localized flooding to the JAX metro area, but this weather pattern
is not expected to last as long as it did last year, but will
continue to monitor for potential Flood Watch.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  65  84  63 /  30   0  10   0
SSI  83  73  83  73 /  60  40  40  20
JAX  85  72  84  71 /  60  30  60  20
SGJ  86  74  85  74 /  60  50  70  30
GNV  88  70  86  69 /  60  10  50  10
OCF  87  72  86  72 /  70  10  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT Monday
     for AMZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     Monday for AMZ452-472.

&&

$$