060
FXUS62 KJAX 121236
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
836 AM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Beneficial Rainfall and Embedded Thunderstorms Continue
  through Wednesday. Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms for
  North Central and Portions of Northeast FL this Afternoon.

- Breezy Northeasterly Winds Today with Hazardous Beach
  Conditions. High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches
  through Wednesday.

- Small Craft Advisories Posted for Our Local Atlantic Near
  Shore Waters from St. Augustine Northward Today and for the
  Offshore Waters through Tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Breezy onshore Northeast Winds Today with Hazardous Beach
  Conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions through this
  evening along with a high risk of Rip Currents at all area
  beaches.

- Beneficial Rainfall and Embedded Thunderstorms through
  Tonight, Especially Across Northeast and North Central FL.

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms this Afternoon for
  North Central and Portions of Northeast FL.

Showers will become widespread through the late morning hours
along and north of I-10 to US82 and numerous over NE FL south of
I-10, then become widespread this afternoon as the front sags
into north central FL midday to early afternoon. Embedded
scattered T`storms will enhance rain rates within the shield of
ran as the low pressure area moves east near the coast of the FL
panhandle towards the Nature coast. An isolated strong to
severe elevated T`storm is possible across Flagler/St
Johns/Putnam/Marion counties as 35-40 knots of 0-6km shear and
PWATs above the 90th percentile may support gusty wet downburst
potential. Otherwise breezy NE winds 15-20 mph will remain at
the coast with gusts to 30 mph and trending 10-15mph inland with
gust to 25 mph. Highs will be below normal due to the clouds
with upper 60s to low 70s over SE GA, low 70s along I-10, and
mid to upper 70s southward with isolated low 80s south of Ocala
to Flagler Beach line.

Tonight, widespread showers will slowly shift off the Atlantic
coast into the coastal waters with scattered to numerous
coastal convergent showers ongoing well into the predawn morning
hours Wednesday as the mid/upper level trough axis shifts into
the waters to the east of the FL peninsula. Widespread rainfall
totals will be 1.00-2.5 inches across the areas well north of US
82 near the Altamaha river. Skies will remain mostly cloudy
with low stratus clouds through sunrise Wednesday. Winds will
remain NE 5-10 mph inland and 10-15 mph along the coast where
winds will turn more easterly by dawn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Widely Scattered T`storms Wednesday along the Atlantic
  Seabreeze.

Drier weather conditions will settle into place after Wednesday
as weakening high pressure moves off to the east and an
advancing cold front presses in from out of the northwest and
crosses over the forecast area by Thursday. Clearing skies,
northwesterly winds, and drier air will be in place on Thursday
as high pressure conditions settle in over the region by
Thursday afternoon. High temperatures for midweek will rise into
the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temperatures dropping
down into the lower to mid 60s for inland areas and in the upper
60s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

- Dry Conditions late this week into the Weekend.

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend.

Predominantly dry weather conditions will continue through
Friday and Saturday with potential for isolated to scattered
showers to increase on Sunday as high pressure drifts towards
the northeast and prevailing flow shifts about to become more
onshore from out of the east. High temperatures going into the
weekend and the beginning of next week will rise to be well
above the seasonal average with max temps expected to rise into
the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...

IFR conditions will prevail through at least 04Z Wednesday at
the northeast FL terminals. MVFR conditions at SSI will likely
deteriorate to IFR by 14Z, with IFR conditions then expected to
prevail throughout the rest of the period. Potentially strong
thunderstorms may impact the GNV terminal after 19Z, and a TEMPO
group for brief wind gusts up to 35 knots was included in the
TAF from 20Z-00Z. Periods of heavier showers are forecast at the
rest of the terminals through at least 03Z Wednesday, and a few
embedded vicinity thunderstorms will be possible at the Duval
County terminals and SGJ. Heavier showers may continue at the
regional terminals past 04Z, but confidence was too low to
indicate anything other than vicinity coverage at this time.
Northeasterly surface winds will become sustained at 10-15 knots
at the inland terminals by 15Z, with sustained speeds at the
SSI and SGJ coastal terminals increasing to 15-20 knots by 16Z.
Frequent gusts of 20-30 knots outside of thunderstorm activity
will be possible through around 03Z at the regional terminals.
Surface speeds will diminish to 5-10 knots at the inland
terminals towards 06Z, while speeds at the coastal terminals
will subside to around 10 knots towards 09Z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front over the Southeast Georgia waters will move into
the Northeast Florida waters through the morning hours today.
Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will overspread our
local waters into this afternoon and this evening with periods
of heavier downpours possible at times. High pressure will build
to the north today with a surge of northeasterly winds with
Small Craft Advisory conditions developing throughout the waters
this morning north of St Augustine and expanding southward this
afternoon. Winds will turn easterly into Wednesday morning with
decreasing winds and seas. Showers may linger through Wednesday
before another high pressure center builds southward from the
Great Lakes region late this week with drier weather conditions
into the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents:

A high risk is forecast at area beaches Today due to breezy
onshore winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30 mph surging along the
Northeast FL and Southeast Georgia Beaches. Surf heights will
build to 2-4 feet on Today at the southeast GA beaches and 3-5
feet at the northeast FL beaches. These surf heights will
persist into Wednesday, keeping an elevated risk in place at all
area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- High Afternoon Dispersions Thursday

- Near Critically Low Humidity Values During the Afternoon Hours
  on Thursday and Friday Across Inland Southeast Georgia.

Showers and storms will continue to develop through today and
tonight as a cold front pushes through the area. Winds will
primarily be from the northeast-east today, with stronger winds
along the coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely
along the sea breeze mergers during the afternoon hours. Activity
will begin to lessen by this evening, with coastal showers/storms
expected to build overnight tonight and into early Wednesday
morning with isolated showers/storms expected to build along
the Atlantic seabreezes over the US-17 and I-95 corridors. Dry
cold front moves through Thursday, high pressure will build
overhead Friday and Saturday. Drier airmass arriving on Thursday
and increasing transport winds ahead of and behind the dry cold
front will create widespread high afternoon dispersions. MinRH
values will fall to near critical levels Thursday and Friday
over inland Southeast Georgia.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Gusty and erratic winds
expected in and near thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  60  81  61 /  70  30  20   0
SSI  72  69  79  67 /  90  80  60   0
JAX  73  65  81  64 /  90  80  70   0
SGJ  74  69  81  68 /  80  80  70   0
GNV  75  65  83  64 /  90  70  60  10
OCF  80  67  83  66 /  90  60  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-
     452.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ470-472.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for AMZ474.

&&

$$