128
FXUS62 KJAX 270508
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1208 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Long-Duration Cold Weather Outbreak through the Weekend.
  Dangerously Low Wind Chills this morning, Cold Weather
  Advisory in Effect. Hard Freezes Inland & Light Coastal
  Freezes this morning, Tonight & Wed Night. Additional Light
  Freezes and Frost Possible Inland on Thurs & Fri Nights. Very
  Low Wind Chills (Single Digits & Teens) Possible Sat Night &
  Early Sun. Protect People, Pets, Plants, and Practice Safe
  Heating

- Gale Warning for the Northeast FL Waters Early Today

- Snowfall Probabilities Increasing on Saturday and/or Saturday
Night. Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) of 20-25%
Across Southeast GA

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Strong high pressure will build from the west northwest early this
morning. As the gradient between the departing front and building
high weakens, winds will diminish this morning, but remain somewhat
elevated. The elevated winds will keep low levels stirred up enough
to limit frost development despite the expected cold temperatures.

Lows this morning in the 20s will be common all the way to the
beaches. With winds remaining elevated, wind chills in the teens are
expected.

For Today, high pressure will build close to the region. Skies will
remain clear. Cold advection will continue on a flow from the
northwest to west. Temperatures Today, will be well below normal
with highs ranging from the mid 40s over inland SE GA to the lower
50s over north central FL.

High pressure ridge will remain over area Tonight from high centered
to the west northwest. An upper wave will move across region,
bringing an increase in cloud cover. The added cloud cover will
result in a little bit higher temperatures than this morning, but
still unseasonably cold with another widepread freeze expected.
Frost potential will be significant Tonight as winds will be on
the light side.

Will leave watch in place for Tonight, and day shift can upgrade
this to warning as needed, once current one for this morning expires.
A few locations in NE FL may also reach criteria for cold
weather advisory again Tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A gradual moderation in temperatures begins Wednesday, though values
will remain well below seasonal normals. Afternoon highs will reach
the lower to mid 50s across southeast Georgia and the mid to upper
50s across northeast Florida. Partly cloudy skies are expected with
light NW winds at 510 mph.

Despite the very modest daytime warming, cold conditions persist
Wednesday night. Clear skies and near-calm winds will support strong
radiational cooling, with overnight lows falling into the mid to
upper 20s inland and the mid 30s along the coast. Wind chills are
expected to remain just above advisory criteria; however, sub-
freezing temperatures will once again necessitate freeze products,
along with widespread frost.

Cold and dry conditions continue Thursday under persistent surface
high pressure. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s SE GA and
upper 50s to lowers 60s NE FL with slight and modest uptick from
Wednesdays high temperatures. Clear skies and light winds Thursday
night will allow temperatures to fall back into the upper 20s inland
and the lower to mid 30s near the coast, supporting another round of
Freeze products and widespread frost.
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unseasonably cold and dry conditions persist through the end of
the week into the beginning of next week. Freeze products are
expected to be needed most nights through the period, with Cold
Weather Advisories potentially returning by the weekend as sub-
freezing temperatures continue.

High pressure shifts eastward Friday, allowing for modest daytime
warming. Highs will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s north of I-10,
and lower to mid 60s though cold air remains entrenched.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s SE GA, low
to mid 30s NE FL, with widespread frost likely and Freeze products
remaining probable for inland locations Friday night.

Potential Weekend Coastal Storm this Weekend

Global and ensemble guidance continue to suggest the development of
a coastal low-pressure trough off our coast the first half of the
weekend though considerable uncertainty remains regarding its
strength, track, and timing. Confidence remains low in precipitation
coverage and thermal profiles across southeast Georgia and northeast
Florida.  With the potential for a coastal storm developing in
addition to cold temperatures expected during the upcoming weekend,
we could see some winterly precipitation for portions of our region
north of I-10 particularly Saturday and Saturday night.

A reinforcing surge of arctic air is expected to accompany and
follow the system, with lows Saturday night into Sunday morning
falling into teens and lower 20s. These temperatures, combined with
breezy winds, could result in dangerous wind chills of single digits
and teens and support Cold Weather Advisories and Freeze Warnings
regardless of precipitation type. Any wintry precipitation potential
would depend heavily on the eventual track and timing of potential
coastal trough.

Sunday and Monday:

Following the departure of the coastal low, very cold conditions
persist. Sunday highs will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s SE GA
and lower to mid 40s for NE FL with overnight lows in the 20s. Wind
chills will generally be in the teens Sunday night into Monday
morning. A slight moderation is expected Monday, with highs
returning to upper 40s and the lower 50s; however, overnight lows
will remain cold enough to support additional freeze products.

The severity of the arctic cold for our region pertaining to planned
outdoor events remains a big concern this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail this 06z TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through Friday.
Elevated winds and seas will continue this morning. Gale Warning
will transition to a Small Craft Advisory this morning.

A low pressure system is expected to develop near the area over the
weekend, then move off to the northeast. Small Craft Advisory to
possibly Gale conditions possible this weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate NE FL Today, Low SE GA Today

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Critically Low RH Values Area-Wide Through Thursday

Dispersion values will trend downward on today and Wednesday across
the region, with generally poor dispersions expected area-wide by
Thursday as near-calm winds develop. Despite lighter winds,
increasingly dry air will overspread the region, resulting in
critically low minimum afternoon relative humidity values on today,
falling into the upper teens to lower 20s across much of the area.
Relative humidity values will recover slightly by midweek but are
expected to remain near or below critical thresholds as dry
conditions persist through the end of the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Frost and freeze conditions are
expected during the overnight and early morning hours through much
of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
.CLIMATE...Daily records due to the arctic cold air
outbreak are below:

-------------------------------------
RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
-------------------------------------

January 31:
- KGNV: 47/1909

-------------------------------------
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
-------------------------------------

January 31:
- KCRG: 33/2019

February 1:
- KJAX: 24/1977
- KGNV: 25/1977
- KAMG: 22/1977
- KCRG: 29/1977

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  26  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  47  32  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  50  27  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  48  32  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  52  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  52  27  58  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-
     023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-
     225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-
     533-633.
     Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
     140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
     433-522-533-633.
GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Freeze Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ450-
     470.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ452-454-472-
     474.

&&

$$