546
FXUS62 KJAX 250502
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Very Hot & Humid Weather Continues Today  Heat Index 106 - 112.
Heat Advisories Possible again Next Week for Portions of Our Area

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening TStorms Sat through Mon.
Strong Storms, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Locally Heavy Downpours
Possible

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Tues & Wed

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Strong Storms and Locally Heavy Downpours Possible This Afternoon
  and Early Evening from I-95 to US Highway 301

- Heat Advisory in effect from Noon to 7PM for Northeast FL and
  portions of Southeast GA

Last of remaining showers from Brunswick west southwest to Live Oak
have diminished with mid and high level debris clouds from the prior
evening`s convection remaining over the area with mostly clear skies
over north central FL. Temperatures are cooling slowly inland into
the upper 70s and low 80s along the coast with a trend to mid 70s
inland and the upper 70s along the coast with very light south winds
becoming southwesterly by sunrise 3-5 mph. Shallow ground fog may
form over inland areas early this morning which received briefly
heavy rainfall yesterday.

Today, a ribbon of shortwave energy between a strong mid/upper level
western ridge and a trough over the Mid Atlantic states will move
east southeastward across the southern Appalachians to the Carolina
Piedmont through the course of today. This energy will remain just
north of the area, but serve to sharpen the trough to the north
further southward over the southeast states and begin to nudge a
nearly stalled cold frontal boundary south and east from north GA
into central GA and SC. Ahead of the front, very high PWATS shifting
over SE GA by midday and over NE FL late in the afternoon hours with
values ranging 2.0-2.4 inches. West to northwest flow will slow the
progress of the convectively active Atlantic seabreeze across I-95
to near or just past US-17 where scattered showers and thunderstorms
will become more numerous by mid afternoon as outflow collisions
spur additional updraft growth amid strong diurnal heating. The
favored coverage area for numerous afternoon thunderstorms will be
between I-95 and highway 301 with the Gulf seabreeze arriving late
over Ocala National Forest. West to northwest winds 5-10 mph will
turn southeasterly 8-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph behind the Atlantic
seabreeze.

Stronger storms will be possible along cell mergers and outflow
interactions with the Atlantic seabreeze. An increase in shear late
in the afternoon and Water loading will support a threat for
isolated strong to locally severe gusty downburst winds 40-60 mph.
Storm motions will slightly increase as well from the west or west
northwest, so a localized flood threat is in play with storms
affecting the urban areas along I-95 and other low lying areas.

Most thunderstorms will begin to fade after 10PM with isolated
storms through midnight, then a few showers may roll into inland SE
GA as shortwave energy filters into the area late overnight with the
front still north of the Altamaha river.

Highs today will rise to the mid and upper 90s along and west of I-
95 with mid 90s at the coast. Expecting a little higher humidity
values today compared to yesterday which should keep our inland
dewpoints in the low/mid 70s with upper 70s at the coast. These
conditions will lead to peak heat indices 108-110 with isolated
values up to 112 and therefore will post a Heat Advisory for NE FL
the SE GA coast and portions of inland SE GA near the FL/GA state
line including Echols, Clinch, and southern Ware county. Lows
tonight will be muggy in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to
near 80 along the coast

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coverage and Intensity of Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms
Increases Sunday.

- Strong Storms and Locally Heavy Downpours Possible.

Frontal boundary still on track to sag southward into SE GA on
Sunday which will increase PWATs to over 2 inches across the local
area before frontal boundary dissipates across NE FL on Monday. This
will bring numerous to widespread showers and storms on Sunday which
will interact with the East Coast sea breeze and expect isolated
strong to severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph along the I-95
corridor along with heavy downpours which could bring localized
flooding in the more intense, slow moving storms, mainly impacting
urban areas. Slightly drier air mass builds in aloft across SE GA on
Monday, with only isolated convection during the afternoon, while
lingering deep moisture across NE FL will interact with sea breeze
fronts during the afternoon and evening to still help produce
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms with locally
heavy rainfall still possible in slow moving storms, mainly along
the I-95/US-301 corridors once again. Isolated strong/severe storms
will continue to be possible with gusty downburst winds of 40-60 mph
across NE FL. Flood watches still not likely due to the recent drier
stretch of weather this past week.

Despite the higher rainfall chances, still expect Max Temps into the
lower/middle 90s both days, which will combine with dew point temps
into the mid/upper 70s to produce Heat Index values into the 105-
110F range for coastal SE GA/most of NE FL and Heat Advisory
headlines are still possible, but may not be required due to the
earlier start to convection both days. Heat Indices generally peak
out around 105F across inland SE GA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Heat Advisory Conditions Possible Across Much of Our Area
During the Early to Middle Portions of Next Week.

- Increasing Coverage of Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms
Possible Late Next Week into next weekend.

Long range models still suggesting ridging aloft will build over the
region and suppress convection Tuesday and Wednesday which will
support Max Temps into the upper 90s and heat indices pushing close
to 110F area-wide and expect Heat Advisory headlines both days. Only
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected Tuesday
with some increase to scattered storms on Wednesday. Isolated strong
to severe storms still possible both days due to the extreme heating
in the lower levels and convection getting a later start both days.

Next frontal boundary pushes into the region late in the week and
stalls and dissipates into next weekend. This will increase rainfall
chances and PWATs back above 2 inches with at least numerous showers
and storms expected each day in the breezy SW flow, with best
coverage closer to the I-95 corridor and across NE FL with locally
heavy rainfall threat and isolated strong/severe storms with gusty
winds to 40-60 mph expected. Max temps drop back down into the lower
to middle 90s with peak heat indices around 105F and heat advisory
headlines are not expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

VFR conditions will remain overnight into Saturday morning with
exception of shallow MVFR ground fog localized at VQQ. Saturday,
light west to west northwest winds 5-8 knots will turn southeast at
the coastal sites including JAX from 17-19Z.

Thunderstorms will develop across the area Saturday afternoon, which
will likely affect area TAF sites. Restrictions and gusty winds up
to 30 knots in and near afternoon storms 20-24Z can be expected.
Storms will diminish after 02Z with broken to overcast mid and high
level clouds through the end of the period with very light southwest
winds.

&&

.MARINE...


A stationary frontal boundary extending from the Carolina coast
westward across the deep south will begin to drift south towards the
Georgia waters today through Sunday, pushing the axis of Atlantic
high pressure southward. This change in the weather pattern will
create a prevailing offshore wind flow this weekend and early next
week, with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms
expected across our local waters each day. A few stronger storms
will be possible during the late afternoon hours, with briefly
strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes, and torrential
downpours possible. Another front will approach the waters next week
with offshore southwest winds increasing to near advisory levels by
midweek.

Rip Currents:

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is expected today
through the weekend at Northeast FL and Southeast GA beaches due to
onshore winds from the southeast this afternoon with surf heights 2
to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersion Values Inland This Weekend

Coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms will increase
during the afternoon and evening hours area-wide this weekend. A
gradual decrease in afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm
activity is then expected during the early to middle portions of
next week. Very hot and seasonably humid conditions will otherwise
prevail, with heat advisory conditions possible across portions of
our area this weekend and next week. Surface and transport winds
from the southwest and west are expected this morning, with
transport winds shifting to northwesterly during the afternoon at
inland locations. Elevated mixing heights will generally yield good
daytime dispersion values at inland locations, while fair values
prevailing at coastal locations. Northwesterly surface and transport
winds will then prevail on Sunday, with marginally high daytime
dispersion values possible at inland locations before thunderstorm
activity increases during the afternoon hours.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not
expected during the next several mornings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  75  94  73 /  30  20  70  40
SSI  95  79  92  77 /  60  40  70  50
JAX  97  76  95  74 /  70  40  80  60
SGJ  95  77  93  75 /  40  30  70  40
GNV  96  76  95  75 /  50  30  70  40
OCF  96  77  95  75 /  50  20  70  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
     140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
     433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ152>154-162-163-165-166-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$