228
FXUS62 KJAX 042343
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
743 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding this Weekend and Next Week.
  Coastal Flood Warning: Moderate Tidal Flood impacts within the
  St. Johns River Basin, Coastal Northeast FL & Intracoastal
  Waterway. Coastal Flood Advisory: Minor Tidal Flood impacts
  Coastal Southeast GA & Nassau Co.

- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions through Tuesday, and Likely
  Return Thursday and continue into Next Weekend. High Rip Current
  Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory

- Locally Heavy Rainfall & Flood Risk on Sunday and Monday. Waves
  of Heavy Downpours, Isolated Coastal Thunderstorms on Sunday
  and Monday. Localized Flood Risk at Coastal & Normally Flood
  Prone, Low-lying Locations

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Not much change to ongoing forecast as Local Nor`easter conditions
continue through Sunday. Widely scattered showers will push
onshore this evening, then are expected to become more scattered
to numerous late tonight and through Sunday morning as the
atmospheric moisture increases, along with low level convergence
along the Atlantic Coast. Isolated storms will become embedded
into the activity as well as localized flood threat along the I-95
and Atlantic Coastal Counties, which will be highest during times
of high tide as the Minor to Moderate Tidal/Coastal flooding
continues. Low temps fall into the upper 60s over inland SE GA,
around 70F across inland NE FL and lower/middle 70s for coastal
areas. E-NE winds remain breezy at the Atlantic Coast tonight
with sustained winds of 15-25G30-35 mph, but decrease to 5-10 mph
over inland areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

High pressure will remain centered to the northeast this period,
with ridging extending across the southeastern US. An inverted
trough will remain along the coastal waters. With this pattern, a
pinched gradient will be in place, resulting in a moist and gusty
onshore flow. The greatest chance for showers will be near the
coast, with this activity falling apart as it encounters drier air
further inland. A few coastal thunderstorms will also be possible.
Due to the enhanced gradient winds will be elevated and gusty Today,
especially near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Mean upper ridging will remain situated overhead to wrap up the
weekend. There will be a southeasterly shift in mid level flow as a
weak frontal feature aloft lifts northward. This will enhance deep
moisture and enhance potential for deeper, but still fast-moving,
convection Sunday afternoon. For context, mean PWATs from LREF
guidance indicates mean PWATs around 2" which is around the 80th
percentile for climo. With broken skies, diurnal heating will be
somewhat limited by cloudiness but anticipate enough for sufficient
instability. Some instability and a weak shortwave lifting north
should combine to force up a few thunderstorms along the I-75
corridor Sunday afternoon. Given the rich moisture, heavy rain rates
may lead to localized flood concerns in urban areas; however, storm
motions around 20 mph should limit flood risk.

Anomalously high deep moisture stays in place Monday but upper
flow will weaken some but breezy onshore flow and coastal trough
convergence will keep chances for showers and isolated storms
through Monday as well. Surface pressure gradients don`t feature a
lot of change through the end of the weekend and remain tightly
packed, keeping breezy to gusty onshore winds going into the
upcoming work week.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal due to the passing
showers, cloudiness and onshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A more progressive northern stream will send successive fronts
toward the area during the late part of next week. More confidence
in the arrival of the first front Thursday, bringing a renewed surge
of strong northeasterly onshore winds. This will exacerbate and
continue coastal hazards, including rip currents, coastal flooding,
dangerous maritime boating conditions, and rough surf, into next
weekend. The typical nor`easter conditions are to be expected
Thursday and Friday. Though it`s a bit far out, the gradient
compression with the incoming front may be enough to push coastal
winds toward Wind Advisory level (gusts > 40 mph) on Thursday/Friday.
We`ll assess the potential over the next few days.

There is a bit more uncertainty regarding the depth of the next
upper trough as it digs out of Canada next weekend. Clustered
guidance does lean bit toward a more amplified wave which would send
a stronger front our way next weekend, potentially sweeping out some
of the linger moisture resulting in drying and cooling conditions.
Until then, coastal troughing will keep a slight chance of showers
at the beaches next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Mostly VFR conds this evening as E-NE winds slowly weaken at local
TAF sites down into the 8-12 knot range. Expect rainfall chances
to increase through the overnight hours and have added longer
timed PROB30 groups to account for this more impactful MVFR CIGS
and VSBYS along with gusty wind potential in the 09Z-15Z time
frame and again in the 15-21Z time frame. Thunder (TSRA) chances
remain too low (less than 20 percent) to include in the Sunday
time frame, but may need to be added as coverage increases Sunday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The current pattern with high pressure centered to the northeast,
and a trough over the coastal waters will continue through early
next week. This will keep the elevated and gusty winds, along with
bands of showers in the forecast. A few thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly during the afternoons. The pattern changes briefly
mid week, as the high moves away, and a cold front moves through.
High pressure is expected to build to the north, with troughing
over the waters later next week, bringing a return to the elevated
conditions.

Rip Currents: High Risk through Tuesday

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

With very little change in pattern through Tuesday, have extended
coastal flood products into Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will
subside midweek, before another round of elevated onshore flow
arrives late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  84  69  85 /  30  70  10  30
SSI  73  81  74  83 /  70  70  20  40
JAX  72  84  73  85 /  60  70  20  60
SGJ  74  85  74  84 /  60  70  40  60
GNV  70  87  72  86 /  30  60  20  60
OCF  70  86  74  86 /  30  70  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ125-132-137-
     138-225-233-325-333-633.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$