968
FXUS62 KJAX 011451
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1051 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding along the Atlantic Coast Beginning on
  Tuesday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches this Weekend. High
  Risk Possible at the Northeast FL Beaches on Tuesday and
  Wednesday

- Small Craft Advisories Possible Offshore from Monday Afternoon
  through Tuesday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1051 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

Late morning surface analysis depicts weakening high pressure
(1022 millibars) positioned over the southeastern states.
Meanwhile, a cold front stretches from the Ohio Valley
southwestward through the Ozarks to the Red River Valley of
northern Texas. Aloft...a potent shortwave trough that was digging
south-southeastward from the Upper Midwest was reinforcing a
longwave trough that remains positioned east of the Rockies.
Otherwise, ridging aloft was centered over southern California.
The morning sounding at Jacksonville revealed a dry air mass that
remains in place across our region, with PWAT values below 0.5
inches area-wide. Otherwise, a 2 degrees Celsius subsidence
inversion was positioned around 875 millibars (around 4,000 feet).
Clear skies prevail throughout our region, with temperatures at
15Z generally climbing through the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Dewpoints were mostly in the 40s across our area, except around 50
along the northeast FL coast and across portions of north central
FL.

The potent shortwave trough moving across the Upper Midwest will
continue to dig south-southeastward towards the Tennessee Valley
late tonight. Southwesterly flow aloft will gradually deepen ahead
of this approaching trough through Sunday night. This system will
push a cold front into the southeastern states tonight, with high
pressure positioned over our region gradually weakening later
today and tonight. A loose local pressure gradient will allow for
a light northeasterly breeze to develop along a weak inland moving
Atlantic sea breeze boundary this afternoon, with just a few
stratocumulus clouds developing along this inland moving boundary
this afternoon across northeast and north central FL. Otherwise,
plenty of sunshine and a dry air mass will allow highs to climb
to the lower 70s this afternoon at most inland locations, with mid
70s forecast for north central FL.

A dry and subsident air mass will persist across our region this
evening, with radiational cooling expected again overnight. A few
mid and high altitude clouds developing within the deepening
southwesterly flow pattern may move overhead towards sunrise on
Sunday. Lows tonight will fall to the 40s for inland locations
along and west of the I-95 corridor, with low and mid 50s expected
at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The weak cold front and a pre-frontal trough will move through the
area Sunday and into Sunday night and may be accompanied by
scattered showers, but overall moisture is quite limited. POPs
continue to be advertised around 30 percent for now. Instability
looks too weak to continue to mention a thunderstorm for this
forecast package. Highs will generally be in the lower 70s Sunday.
There will be a gradient in temperatures across area Sunday
night, but not as significant as Saturday night, as winds will
gradually shift from north to northwest overnight. Lows Sunday
night will range from mid 40s inland to mid 50s coast.

High pressure will build from the northwest Monday. Lingering
troughing in the morning could result scattered showers, otherwise
a drying trend is forecast to begin later on Monday. With developing,
dry northwest flow a sunny afternoon is forecast Monday, but
highs will run below normal due to cold advection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The high will build more toward the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday.
An area of low pressure over the western Atlantic and the high
over the Carolinas may result in a pinched pressure gradient to
produce gusty northerly winds Tuesday and partly into Wednesday.
High pressure will build into portions of the area Thursday into
Friday. Temperatures will average below normal Tuesday into
Wednesday, then near or above for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 06Z Sunday. IFR to LIFR visibilities are then expected to
develop at VQQ after 07Z. Northwesterly surface winds sustained
around 5 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals early this
morning will shift to northerly by 15Z as speeds increase to 5-10
knots, followed by winds shifting to northeasterly and then
easterly this afternoon. Light northerly winds will otherwise
develop at the inland terminals by 14Z, followed by winds shifting
to northeasterly by 17Z as sustained speeds increase to 5-10
knots. Winds will shift to east-northeasterly at the inland
terminals after 20Z, with speeds then decreasing after 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1051 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

High pressure positioned over our area this morning will weaken
this afternoon as a cold front enters the southeastern states.
Coastal troughing will develop ahead of this approaching front
over our local waters tonight, with this feature sharpening on
Sunday and likely developing into a weak low pressure center off
the southeastern seaboard by Sunday night. Seas of 2 to 3 feet
will prevail both near shore and offshore through Sunday night.

The cold front will cross our local waters on Sunday night,
accompanied by scattered showers. Weak low pressure organizing
over the Gulf Stream waters may develop a few thunderstorms
offshore by Monday afternoon. Northerly winds will strengthen in
the wake of the frontal passage on Monday and Monday night, with
Caution conditions expected near shore and Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible offshore. Seas will build to the 3-5 foot
range by Monday evening near shore, with seas offshore building to
Caution levels of 4-6 feet on Monday night. High pressure will
then build into the southeastern states on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with northeasterly winds expected to gradually subside on Tuesday
night across our local waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1051 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

A dry air mass will persist across our region today, allowing
minimum relative humidity values to fall to the 30-35 percent
range at most inland locations this afternoon. Otherwise, light
northeasterly transport winds today will generally result in poor
daytime dispersion values. Light north-northeasterly transport
winds on Sunday morning will become variable in direction at
inland locations during the afternoon hours, with poor daytime
dispersion values again forecast at most locations. Surface and
transport winds will shift to northerly on Monday morning and then
north-northwesterly during the afternoon hours. Breezy speeds
will develop during the afternoon, yielding good daytime
dispersion values, with pockets of marginally high values
possible for inland locations.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1051 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The next perigean spring tide will occur next week, with the full
moon occurring Wednesday. Nov 4th-7th are the peak in predicted
astronomical tides. Guidance shows the combination of the north-
northeast winds and these peak astronomical tides pushing coastal
areas into minor flood levels, with total water levels peaking
around 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). Therefore,
this minor coastal flooding concern will continue to be
monitored as we move closer to the event.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  42  70  46 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  70  51  71  53 /   0   0  10  30
JAX  72  47  75  52 /   0   0  10  30
SGJ  72  55  75  56 /   0   0  10  30
GNV  74  46  76  51 /   0   0  10  30
OCF  74  48  76  53 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$