Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
128 FXUS62 KJAX 280652 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 238 AM EDT Thu May 28 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Scattered Thunderstorms This Afternoon. Main Strong Storm Hazard Area: I-95 Corridor to the Beaches. - Several days of Showers and Thunderstorms between today and the middle of next week. Heavy Rainfall & Localized Flooding will be a Concern into Next Week. Widespread 3-5 Rainfall Totals Forecast through next Wednesday, with localized Totals in excess of 6 inches possible. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, with a few strong storms possible High pressure will weaken and shift slightly further southeast of the area throughout the day today as a frontal boundary nudges towards northeast GA. The primary impacts with this change will be a more southwesterly flow regime today, keeping the Atlantic sea breeze pinned closer to the coast. The southwesterly Gulf sea breeze, interacting with the nearly pinned Atlantic sea breeze, will be the primary drivers behind diurnal convection today, with the I- 95 corridor area being the main area to watch where this convergence occurs. PWATs increasing to 2+ inches will further add to the heavy rainfall threat across the region today, in addition to the "usual" gusty wind potential with any stronger storms. Despite some scattered to broken higher cloud cover, temperatures will still rise well into the 80s to low 90s across the region again today. Tonight, some remnant convection will likely linger through around the 10 pm to midnight time frame, especially across interior GA as the aforementioned frontal boundary reaches just to the north and east of the region by early Friday Morning. Min temps will be mild once again, mainly in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Numerous to widespread thunderstorms each day with potential for localized flooding, mainly along the I-95 corridor Wet, storm pattern continues Friday and Saturday as a a parade of weak upper shortwaves traverse a stalled, wavy frontal boundary lying across southern GA. A weak surface low forming off the coast Saturday will depart offshore as an upper trough sinks down from the north, pushing a more robust cold front toward the region late Saturday. Amid a tropical-like airmass, the aforementioned features will lead to waves of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day with activity lingering well into the evening Saturday as a second shortwave impulse drifts over the region. Given the deep moist profile, the potential for heavy rain fall and localized flooding will be the primary threat. There will be a better chance for thunderstorms to produce strong wind gusts Saturday afternoon and evening as sufficiently steep low level lapse rates develop. A mean southwesterly steering flow will lead to a dominant Gulf breeze resulting in a focused area of thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor Friday and Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be tamed a bit by the thunderstorm activity and cloud cover and it`s possible that some locations don`t reach the forecasted maximum; however, it is generally expected that temperatures will push in the upper 80s to near 90 across NE FL and the mid 80s in SE GA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms Expected to Continue, with Beneficial Rainfall Totals Forecast Area-Wide. - Clouds and Cooler Temperatures Expected Early Next Week. The aforementioned cold front will likely sink into NE FL through Sunday and be the primary focus for showers and thunderstorms through Monday as a shortwave energy pushes in from the west, essentially along the stalled frontal boundary. There`s some uncertainty in where the front will ultimately stall and the forecast may be a bit "heavy-handed" for some areas given the potential for drier air to move into SE GA by the middle of next week. Main concerns will still be heavy rain, especially with potential for training convection along the stalled front next week. Accumulations over this period are expected to be higher along and south of the front where an additional 2-4" of rain is possible over the weekend and through next week. A surge of northeasterly will accompany the front as it pushes into the area, renewing risks of rip currents next week. Temperatures will moderate toward the middle part of next week with temperatures in the low/mid 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Convection has come to an end early this morning, with only some remnant light SHRA or VCSH possible over the next few hours with minimal operational impacts. Mostly VFR is expected through at least the next 6 to 9 hours, though IFR FG will be expected at VQQ for a few hours towards sunrise. Some SCT MVFR cloud decks around the area could briefly become BKN through the next few hours as well as any RA threat winds down, though probability too low to include in the forecast and/or as TEMPO groups at this time. Otherwise, convection is expected to ramp up once again during the midday/afternoon hours, with TEMPO groups for TSRA impacts included for all airfields given higher confidence. Mainly southwesterly flow expected, with the Atlantic sea breeze not expected to reach further than more immediate coastal sites. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure will shift south and eastward while weakening today as a cold front sinks southward from the Mid-Atlantic states into the southeastern states. Winds shift from southerly to southwesterly with diminishing speeds today. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will impact our local waters this afternoon through at least the middle portion of next week as the frontal boundary stalls over our local waters, with weak waves of low pressure expected to develop along the frontal boundary that will traverse our local waters from west to east. West to southwesterly winds may strengthen to Caution levels early next week, especially offshore. Rip Currents: Flow shifts offshore today, which will drop rip current risk to moderate across northeast FL beaches, and low at southeast GA beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... A shift to southwesterly winds will allow for the Gulf breeze to push further inland by the afternoon to evening hours on Thursday and Friday, with convective activity pushing towards I-95 and the Atlantic coast. With increased moisture coming from the Gulf on westerly transport flow, widespread waves of downpours are forecast area-wide into the weekend, which may be followed by a late season cool front early next week. No low humidity concerns or fire weather threats are expected. through the weekend. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into early next week, but patchy morning fog will be possible in areas where heavy rain fell during the previous afternoon. Erratic winds and heavy downpours are expected during periods of thunderstorms over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 86 70 84 68 / 80 30 90 70 SSI 89 75 85 74 / 70 60 80 60 JAX 91 72 88 72 / 80 40 90 60 SGJ 92 73 88 73 / 70 30 80 40 GNV 90 72 90 72 / 70 20 70 30 OCF 89 73 89 73 / 60 20 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$