719
FXUS62 KJAX 132244
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
544 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extreme Drought Expanding Across our Region. Moderate Wildfire
Danger Throughout the Region. Lightning from Storms on Sunday Could
Cause Ignitions

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Sunday through Monday. Localized Heavy
Downpours, Especially Along & North of I-10

- A Few Strong/Severe TStorms & Windy Conditions Possible

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Through Saturday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Northeasterly flow persists through the rest of the day as high
pressure remains along the eastern seaboard and a coastal trough
over the offshore waters. Similar pattern in temperatures Today as
was observed on Thursday with onshore flow  continuing to advect
cooler air onshore. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s for locations
north of Waycross, GA and along the coast. The rest of the area will
be in the lower to mid 70s. By the evening, clearer skies over SE GA
will allow for temperatures to be cooler than NE FL. Overnight Lows
will dip into the upper 30s to lower 40s across SE GA, with mid 40s
to upper 40s across NE FL, the upper 40s to lower 50s across coastal
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, surface high pressure will shift of the coast of the
Carolinas and into the western Atlantic slowly veering winds from
east to southeast. Meanwhile, a potent upper shortwave trough and
its associated surface low move through the southern Plains and
begin to lift the stalled frontal boundary over southern FL back
northward as a warm front. Temperatures will trend around seasonable
with highs ranging from the low-mid 60s along the SE GA coast to the
upper 70s along the I-75 corridor. Lows Saturday night will be more
mild as winds turn south-southeasterly, with widespread lows in the
50s expected.

On Sunday, the warm sector develops as the warm front lifts across
the area. The surface low pressure will slowly weaken as it migrates
across the SE US dragging its cold front across the Gulf coast
states. Southwesterly winds strengthen ahead of the system
potentially producing wind gusts up to 30-35 mph. Will need to
monitor if we get close to Wind Advisory conditions (>=40 mph).
Strong warm air advection will push highs to near record for NE FL
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Moisture increases across
the area with PWATs in the 1.3-1.6 in. range. Pre-frontal showers
with embedded thunderstorms spread in from the northwest late Sunday
morning and overspread the area Sunday afternoon into night. This
will bring beneficial rain with rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch
range. Best instability continues to be over far SE GA to inland NE
FL, or basically influenced by Gulf moisture in the southwest flow
ahead of the front with MUCAPE of about 300-450 J/kg. A few
thunderstorms could become strong to marginally severe given robust
bulk shear values (40-60 kt). Stronger storms may be capable of
producing downburst winds of 45-55 mph and small hail. SPC has
placed much of the area in a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
for Sunday. Instability will fade on Sunday night, but a few rounds
of downpours and embedded elevated thunderstorms should continue
through the night and the early morning hours on Monday. Min temps
will only fall into the 50s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The potent mid to level shortwave trough will be pushing just east
of the area Monday morning, with the cold front extending southward
from a low pressure system just off the southeast U.S. coast. Some
post-frontal troughing from southwest to northeast over northeast FL
and showery precip is expected to continue Monday. We kept a low
mention of t-storms over northeast FL mainly for the morning hours,
with lapse rates likely to be a bit steep, thereby supporting some
instability. Precip chances should diminish late Monday aftn to
evening. The front should make it well south of the area by midday
Monday. Cloudy skies will clear from north to south Monday evening
and overnight into Tuesday, with sfc high pressure building in from
the north. Breezy northeast winds Tuesday will keep the coast cooler
with highs in the 60s while inland is the 70s for highs.

Surface high pressure will further build into the area Wednesday
into Thursday with a much drier airmass and dry conditions once
again. The ridge drops south of the area by later in the week.
This should result in a warming trend with highs Wednesday and
Thursday above normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overall, lows
will be above average during the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions persists for majority of TAF period. Patchy fog still
possible from 08-12Z at the inland TAF sites of GNV/VQQ with MVFR
VSBY chances in the 20-40% range, which is enough to include a TEMPO
group at this time. SCT Cu clouds in the 3000-5000 ft range expected
to develop Saturday afternoon, along with E-NE winds around 10 knots
with gusts to 15 knots at times.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure ridging will persist along the southeastern seaboard
through tonight as a frontal boundary remains stalled just south of
the area. A northeast to easterly onshore flow will persist through
Saturday. High pressure then moves east of the region Saturday Night
and Sunday as a frontal system approaches the area Sunday Night,
moving across the area waters through Monday. Showers as well as
isolated thunderstorms will be expected Sunday Night through Monday
as the system moves through. South-southwesterly winds increase
ahead of the front to small craft advisory conditions over the
offshore waters Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure ridging
will then build back down the southeastern coast on Tuesday
before weakening by mid week.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for all beaches with a
persistent onshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
- Northeast Florida This Afternoon
- High Daytime Inland Dispersions Sunday

Long durations of critically low relative humidity values are
forecast this afternoon for inland portions of southeast Georgia and
 northeast Florida. Low-level moisture gradually increases this
weekend. Otherwise, surface and transport winds will become breezy
at times from the northeast along the coast and shifting inland
toward US 301 by this evening. Surface and transport winds will
shift to easterly by Saturday, with breezy conditions developing
during the afternoon hours. These breezy winds will combine with
elevated mixing heights to create good daytime dispersion values.

Increasing cloud cover is expected Sunday ahead of cold front, with
chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms. This activity will
then overspread the rest of our area Sunday night, possibly
continuing into Monday morning. A few strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms will be possible. Strong transport winds, breezy
surface speeds, and elevated mixing heights will create high daytime
dispersion values on Sunday throughout northeast and north central
Florida, with marginally high values possible for southeast Georgia.
Beneficial rainfall overspreads the region Sunday into Monday.
Rainfall amounts of up to 1-2 inches, with locally higher totals
possible.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not
expected during the next several days. Localized visibility
reductions are possible during the predawn and early morning hours
for locations near active or ongoing wildfires or prescribed burns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  35  71  50  75 /   0  10  10  90
SSI  47  62  52  70 /   0  10  20  70
JAX  43  71  53  80 /   0  10  10  60
SGJ  48  70  56  77 /   0  10  10  50
GNV  43  78  57  81 /   0  10  10  60
OCF  44  80  57  82 /   0  10  10  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$