Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
362
FXUS62 KJAX 241151
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
751 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Strengthening Northeast Winds & Increasing Marine Hazards through
Sat. High Risk for Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory at All Area
Beaches. Frequent Wind Gusts of 30-35 mph at Coastal Locations
through this Evening. Small Craft Advisories through Early Saturday.
Minor Coastal Flooding Around Times of High Tide from Thursday
Evening. Minor Tidal Flooding Around Times of High Tide within the
St. Johns River Basin. Minor Beach Erosion Possible at Area Beaches
Around Times of High Tide.
- Brief Heavy Downpours Possible through Tonight for Coastal
Northeast FL
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:
- Scattered Coastal Showers with brief heavy downpours along
Portions of the Northeast Florida Coast
- Breezy onshore winds and dangerous rip current/surf conditions
Breezy winds 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph along the coast early
this morning have backed from northeasterly to northerly as a cold
front has pushed south of the area into central FL. Dewpoints are
lowering slowly into the upper 60s along the SE GA coast and inland
NE FL north of Gainesville with mid 60s over inland SE GA. With the
drier airmass and northerly surface winds continuing through
sunrise, moisture levels will continue to gradually fall to the
low/mid 60s over inland SE GA to low 70s along the NE FL coast with
temperatures lowering into the upper 60s along and north of I-10
away from the coast, low 70s along the SE GA coast and mid 70s along
the NE FL coast. Low stratus will also sink southward from the SE GA
coast and Altamaha river into I-10 and the NE FL coast to the St
Johns river.
Today, a mid to upper level trough over the southern appalachians
will dig southeastward through this evening as an Omega ridging over
southeastern Canada persists. At the surface, breezy northeast
onshore flow will increase as strong high pressure extending from
Quebec and New England wedges down the southeast US coast while low
pressure deepens east of the Outer Banks of NC to our northeast.
Scattered coastal showers, due to coastal convergence, will move
onshore the NE FL coast mainly from the JAX beaches southward into
Flagler Beach and the southern St Johns river basin. Cloudy, cool
flow will limit highs to the upper 70s over SE GA and the NE FL
coast from the JAX beaches northward with broken, mostly cloudy
skies will allow highs to reach the low to mid 80s near I-75 over
inland NE FL. Winds will be very breezy 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35
mph along the coast and into the St Johns river basin, diminishing
slightly inland to 12-18 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Tonight, drier air will continue to filter into the area from the
north with lower dewpoints and mostly cloudy along the coast and
partly cloudy inland. Winds will remain very breezy 15-20 mph with
gusts to 30 mph along the immediate coast and 10-15 mph inland. Lows
will fall to below normal levels in the low 60s over inland SE GA,
moderating to near normal levels in the low 70s along the NE FL
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Gusty North to Northeasterly Winds Will Maintain Marine and
Coastal Impacts on Friday and Saturday.
- Minor Coastal Flooding Likely Around Times of High Tide Along the
Atlantic Coast Beginning through Friday. Tidal Flooding Possible
within the St. Johns River Basin Beginning on Friday.
- Much Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected, Especially on Friday
and Saturday Nights as Winds Diminish at Inland Locations.
An intense shortwave trough diving southeastward across the
Carolinas on Thursday night will pivot off the Carolina coast on
Friday, resulting in an increasingly negatively tilted long wave
trough positioned along the U.S. eastern seaboard that will
strengthen surface low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure building over the Great Lakes region
will expand southeastward, keeping a tight local pressure gradient
in place locally and driving a cold front southward through the FL
peninsula towards Cuba. A few showers over the Atlantic waters may
brush the northeast FL coast on Friday morning, mainly for locations
from around St. Augustine southward. An unseasonably dry air mass
already in place across inland portions of southeast GA will advect
across the rest of our area on Friday afternoon and evening, with
dewpoints forecast to fall into the 40s across most of interior
southeast GA, with values falling into the 50s for locations along
the I-10 corridor and the lower 60s south of I-10 by late afternoon.
Skies will also clear from northwest to southeast as the day
progresses, allowing inland highs to range from around 80 across
inland southeast GA to the mid 80s for north central FL. Lingering
marine stratocumulus through early afternoon and north-northeasterly
winds sustained at 15-20 mph and frequently gusting to 25-30 mph
will keep coastal highs in the upper 70s.
The strengthening coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast will
nudge northward towards the coastal New England on Friday night and
Saturday, allowing our local pressure gradient to gradually loosen.
Winds at inland locations will decouple after midnight on Friday
night, with radiational cooling dropping lows to the low and mid 50s
across inland southeast GA, with values generally falling to the 55-
60 degree range for inland locations in northeast and north central
FL, which could approach daily record low temperatures for Sept. 26
(see "Climate" section below for details). Northerly winds will
remain sustained at 10-15 mph overnight at coastal locations, which
will add an extra chill to the air, but will keep lows in the low to
mid 60s.
Dry northwesterly flow will prevail across the southeastern states
on Saturday and Saturday night. Our local pressure gradient will
continue to gradually loosen, but breezy northeasterly winds will
continue at coastal locations on Saturday that will keep highs in
the upper 70s to around 80 despite full sunshine. Heights aloft will
begin to rise from west to east on Saturday, with a very dry air
mass featuring dewpoints in the 40s and 50s again allowing highs to
climb to the low and mid 80s inland. Winds will decouple early on
Saturday evening at inland locations, and radiational cooling may
extend to coastal locations by the predawn hours on Sunday as
weakening high pressure shifts over our region. Lows will fall to
the 50s at inland locations, ranging to the lower 60s at area
beaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Minor Tidal Flooding is Likely Around Times of High Tide within
the St. Johns River Basin through Early Next Week.
- Warming Trend Takes Shape Next Week, But an Unseasonably Dry Air
Mass Persists Across Our Region Sunday through Monday.
Flow aloft will become zonal across our region on Sunday, with a
moisture starved shortwave trough potentially increasing high
altitude cloud cover somewhat through Sunday night. An unseasonably
dry air mass will otherwise linger through Monday area-wide, with
slowly rising heights aloft allowing highs to rebound to the low and
mid 80s on Sunday and the mid to upper 80s on Monday. The dry air
mass, generally fair skies and weak high pressure over our area will
allow for additional nights of radiational cooling on Sunday and
Monday, with inland lows falling to the upper 50s and lower 60s on
Sunday night, moderating slowly to the low to mid 60s on Monday
night. Coastal lows will generally fall to the 65-70 degree range.
High pressure will then shift offshore on Tuesday, allowing for
gradually increasing moisture levels from south to north as low
level flow becomes southeasterly and flow aloft veers to
southwesterly. This weather pattern will allow PWATs to climb back
towards the 1.5 inch range, and a few afternoon showers cannot be
ruled out, especially across southeast GA as some isentropic lift
develops. Widely scattered afternoon showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms could develop by midweek as moisture values continue
to slowly increase, especially for locations south of the I-10
corridor. Highs will nudge back to the upper 80s to around 90 at
inland locations on Tuesday and Wednesday, with onshore winds
keeping coastal highs in the mid 80s. Lows will also rebound to the
mid and upper 60s inland by Tuesday night, with lower 70s forecast
at coastal locations.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will continue for most of the day at the TAF
sites, with GNV clearing up first around mid-day. Gusty
northeasterly winds will impact all the sites, with highest gusts of
25-30kts for the coastal sites. Isolated showers will more onshore
today, mainly impacting SGJ, but also CRG and JAX potentially. Winds
will remain elevated overnight, but calm slightly.
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure will strengthen well to the northeast of the
region through the end of the week, tracking further to the
north of the area through the weekend. High pressure will build
down the eastern US coastal states Today pushing a backdoor cold
front south of the waters. The gradient between the high, and
the front trailing from the low to the northeast, will result in
enhanced northeasterly winds and waves lasting through at least
Friday. A prolonged period of Small Craft conditions will
continue through at least Saturday. There is also potential for
occasional gusts to near Gale force today into this evening.
These conditions ease this weekend as high pressure weakens and
the aforementioned low pulls further away from the area.
Rip Currents: There will be several days of strong and dangerous rip
currents with as elevated risk through the upcoming weekend.
Additionally, strong northeasterly winds will increase breakers to 5-
8 feet through Thursday afternoon, increasing the surf danger.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
- On Thursday Night
Scattered showers will be possible for locations along and east of
the Interstate 95 corridor through around sunrise on Friday.
Otherwise, a drier air mass will gradually overspread our region
from Friday through the weekend. Minimum relative humidity values
will fall to around 30 percent on Friday afternoon for locations
north of Waycross in southeast Georgia, with these lower values then
expanding to inland locations throughout our region from Saturday
through Monday. Otherwise, gusty north-northeasterly surface and
transport winds will counter abundant low cloud cover and low mixing
heights today to create fair to good daytime dispersion values.
Surface speeds will remain sustained around 20-25 mph at coastal
locations through this evening, with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph
expected. These gusty conditions will continue overnight tonight for
locations east of I-95, creating elevated nighttime dispersion
values at coastal locations. Gusty northerly surface and transport
winds will continue on Friday area-wide, with decreasing cloud cover
and rising mixing heights yielding good daytime dispersion values.
Surface and transport winds will then shift to northeasterly on
Saturday, with breezy conditions persisting at coastal locations.
Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast area-wide.
Fog Potential...Significant fog formation is not expected during the
next several days.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides will continue rising through the start of the
weekend due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon that occurs on
Saturday. Very breezy north northeasterly onshore winds along
coastal locations will persist into Friday evening and combine with
these increasing astronomical tides to create minor coastal flooding
along the Atlantic coast and then into the St. Johns River This
evening through at least Saturday. Minor coastal flooding will be
possible along the Atlantic coast beginning with this evening`s high
tide, where water levels of 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High
Water (MHHW) are preliminarily forecast. Minor flooding will then
likely expand to the St. Johns River basin by Friday and will then
be possible around times of high tide through the weekend and
possibly into next week, as rising astronomical tides beyond the
date of the Full Moon result in a "trapped tide" situation, keeping
water levels elevated, generally at 1-2 feet above MHHW during each
tide cycle for most locations within the basin.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Near record low temperatures are possible at a few of our designated
climate sites in northeast and north central FL during the weekend:
Saturday, September 26:
KJAX: 55/1940
KGNV: 57/1975
KCRG: 59/1987
Sunday, September 27:
KJAX: 54/1940
KGNV: 53/1940
KCRG: 57/1982
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 77 60 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 78 64 79 60 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 77 65 80 57 / 10 10 0 0
SGJ 82 70 79 65 / 40 30 20 0
GNV 84 66 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 87 68 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
Friday for FLZ124-125-138-225-233-325-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for GAZ154-
166.
High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT
Friday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ450-470.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ452-454-
472-474.
&&
$$