950
FXUS62 KJAX 181759
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1259 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Foggy Mornings Through the End of the Week. Wednesday:
  Potentially Areas of, or Widespread, Dense Fog south of US-82
  and Most Probable for NE FL (40-60%)

- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Be very cautious with
  outdoor flames check for local burning bans. Severe to Extreme
  Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

A weak and subtle front/trough just offshore to the east today
will lift off to the northeast tonight as the area remains under
the influence of hte western periphery of a surface ridge. Some
scattered low level clouds are streaming towards the coast and
just onshore at times thanks to the coastal trough, but otherwise
a mostly sunny and mild rest of the day will be expected with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s inland. The more onshore flow
will keep conditions a bit cooler near the coast as highs stay in
the low to mid 70s range. Very weak flow overnight and a bit more
low level moisture thanks to the onshore flow today will up our
fog chances tonight, especially south and east of about the
Waycross area. Patchy to areas of fog will be likely as well as
patchy dense fog with visibilities under 1/2 mile at times. Low
temps will range from the upper 40s to low 50s inland and the mid
to upper 50s closer to the coast and St. Johns River.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

After a foggy morning, skies will clear and pave the way for above
normal temperatures as high pressure remains overhead. Highs will
climb into the 80s inland and the immediate northeast Florida
coast, while the southeast Georgia coast peaks in the upper 70s.
Another round of morning fog will be likely Thursday morning over
most of inland northeast Florida as lows drop into the 50s to low
60s near the water. Thursday will again be above average for
temperatures in the 80s inland, with coastal temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s as a light coastal breeze develops.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Dry and warm conditions continue on Friday with inland highs
reaching the 80s again with partly cloudy skies as more moisture
influxes the area from an approaching front. The front will bring
isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Saturday
afternoon over far inland southeast Georgia. The front will pass
through this weekend leaving dry conditions, but will not lower
temperatures much, keeping highs above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

No significant operational concerns for the next 6-12 hours, with
VFR ceilings and winds just under 10 knots expected through after
sunset. Some MVFR ceilings have been streaming onshore with a weak
coastal trough which could drop ceilings briefly mainly at
SSI/JAX/CRG this afternoon. Will continue to monitor trends to
determine if duration will be long enough for any TEMPO groups.

Guidance overall continues to be quite aggressive with respect to
fog and low stratus developing overnight for most if not all
airfields as low level moisture increases today. Have included
prevailing IFR/LIFR conditions at all terminals away from the
coast, and TEMPO groups at SSI and SGJ. Will adjust accordingly
with upcoming updates.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

A weak and coastal trough over the waters will lift northeastward
tonight, with a a few isolated showers possible off the northeast
Florida coast through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, high
pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the end of
the week resulting in light winds and low seas across the local
waters. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible within about 10
miles of the coast each morning over the next several days. Over
the weekend, winds turn offshore and become breezy as a cold front
approaches and passes Sunday night. High pressure building in
behind the front will move offshore to the northeast early next
week setting up onshore flow and development of a coastal trough.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk is moderate today with onshore
flow. This risk falls slightly Wednesday and through the rest of
the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1241 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Record High Temperatures For The Rest of The Week:

Wednesday, November 19:
KJAX: 84/1958
KAMG: 82/1942
KCRG: 82/1984

Thursday, November 20:
KJAX: 86/1988
KGNV: 88/1906
KAMG: 83/1942

Friday, November 21:
KJAX: 84/1991
KGNV: 86/1973
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 82/2004

Saturday, November 22:
KJAX: 84/1973
KGNV: 86/1906
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 81/1997

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  82  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  57  79  59  77 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  54  83  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  57  81  57  81 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  54  84  54  86 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  54  83  53  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$