266
FXUS62 KJAX 291325
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
825 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warning Early Saturday Morning for Inland Southeast GA &

- High Risk for Rip Currents at NE Florida Beaches Today

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong
Thunderstorm Potential on Tuesday

&&

.UPDATE...
High cirrus is streaming east northeast across the area this
morning with east northeasterly winds already moderating local
temperatures into the mid/upper 50s to around 60 at the immediate
coast and elevating subfreezing lows after midnight into the mid
30s over inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley. Therefore the freeze
warning was allowed to expire at 8AM.

Today, high pressure will shift east from the central appalachians
to the Mid Atlantic coast. Breezy east northeasterly winds 15-20 mph
will gust to 30 mph at times as a tightened local pressure gradient
between the high to the north northeast and weak inverted troughing
over the coastal waters heightens onshore flow today. Atlantic
stratocumulus clouds developing over the coastal waters will become
more numerous and move onshore leading to mostly cloudy skies along
the coast with a few sprinkles or a very brief shower possible.
With low level flow aloft turning more southeasterly, temperatures
along with moisture levels will increase, rebounding into the upper
60s to the lower 70s across NE FL and generally low/mid 60s over SE
GA.

Tonight, added low level moisture will give some shallow, patchy
fog potential inland/west of I-95 as stratocumulus clouds thin out
in coverage leading to partly cloudy skies overnight. Lows will be
not nearly as cold over SE GA with low/mid 40s and warmer across
NE FL due to the easterly wind fetch with low 50s south of I-10
into north central FL and along the SE GA coast and upper 40s along
I-10 west of Jacksonville. The warmest locations will be along the
first coast only lowering to the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warmer today and continued breezy with more passing clouds. After an
inland morning freeze and frost, temperatures will warm into the 60s
across most locations to lower 70s toward our north-central FL zones
roughly from Gainesville toward Palatka southward under breezy
easterly winds. Dry conditions continue, however, low level clouds
will increase from the Atlantic coast through the day as a coastal
trough forms offshore. A few light, spotty coastal sprinkles will be
possible tonight as the trough pivots northward up the coast, but
measurable precipitation is not expected.

With the influx of shallow level moisture today under east winds,
introduced patchy fog after midnight tonight for locations near the
I-95 corridor in southeast GA to the St. Johns River basin of
northeast Florida. Lows will range from the low/mid 40s tonight
across inland southeast GA to the 50s south of I-10 toward the
Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will move away to the northeast Sunday morning, with a
cold front moving southeast across SE GA Sunday afternoon. This
front will then move across NE FL Sunday night. The front will stall
to the south Monday, then lift north across region Monday night as a
warm front, as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the
Gulf.

Dry weather is expected as the frontal boundary moves through Sunday
into Sunday night, but chances will increase Monday into Monday
night, as it lifts back through as a warm front with increasing
moisture.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The low will track northeast of the region Tuesday, with the
associated cold front moving southeast across area. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage. A few strong
storms will be possible.

High pressure will build to the northwest Tuesday night, then to the
north Wednesday. The high will move away to the northeast Thursday,
as another low moves northeast out of the Gulf Thursday night into
Friday. The front associated with this low may stall over area
Friday night into Saturday, bringing a prolonged period of rainfall
beginning Friday.

Above normal temperatures can be expected Tuesday, with readings
then trending below through the rest of this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
The 12Z TAF period will feature VFR conditions. Winds from the east
northeast will pick up later this morning and turn breezy 10-15 knots
with higher gusts along the coast to 20-25 knots as strong high
pressure to the north builds more to the north northeast today. Weak
inverted troughing will generate Atlantic stratocumulus clouds over
the waters and move them onshore after 20Z with cloud heights ranging
4.0-6.0 kft. Winds will subside some by 22Z-00Z to 6-10 knots inland
and around 10 knots at the coast, then 3-5 knots inland after 05Z
and remain 6-10 knots along the coast overnight, becoming easterly
at SGJ. Some patchy fog may form after 06Z tonight away from the
coast, but probabilities too low to include at this time.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure will build north northeast of the waters today as a
coastal trough develops over the local waters. The coastal trough
will break down Sunday into Monday as a weakening front approaches
from the north then begins to stall just north of the local waters
into Monday night. This front will morph into a lifting warm front
ahead of a stronger frontal system as it approaches late Monday into
Tuesday. Southerly winds increase Tuesday near Small Craft levels
with a chance of thunderstorms. The front is expected to push south
of the local waters late Tuesday, then high pressure builds
northwest of the region mid-week as winds subside below Advisory
levels.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Sunday
              NE FL Moderate Sunday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON THE SE GA COAST SUNDAY...



Moisture will recover Saturday as high pressure shifts more to the
northeast near the Mid Atlantic coast with breezy northeast winds
turning easterly and breezy by afternoon 10-15 with gusts to 25-30
mph, but with min RH levels above critical levels. Increasing
surface and transport winds will create areas of high daytime
dispersions. Sunday, light easterly winds will turn south to
southwesterly further inland as a cold front approaches from the
west. Weaker surface and transport winds will produce fair
dispersions. Chances for showers will increase Monday night as a
cold front stalls across the area. Tuesday, a stronger storm system
will bring the potential for isolated strong T`storms with a wetting
rainfall across most of the area.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS... Significant fog is not expected
over the next few nights.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  43  72  48  66 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  53  71  56  67 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  51  77  56  71 /  10  10  10  20
SGJ  58  76  61  74 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  52  79  57  76 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  53  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$