276
FXUS62 KJAX 112336
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
736 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hazardous Beach & Surf Zone Conditions this Weekend. Frequent
  rip currents all local beaches High Risk. Rough Surf, Breakers
  6-9 ft High Surf Advisory.

- Moderate Tidal Flooding Today: Coast, ICW & St. Johns River
  Basin. Extended duration of tidal flooding for St. Johns River
  next week. Minor Impacts at coast & ICW Sunday

- Gale Warning through Tonight & Small Craft Sunday & Monday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 724 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Forecast remains on track as low pressure system slowly pulls away
northward towards the Carolinas and North winds will continue to
slowly diminish tonight and become more Northwest towards morning.
Abundant cloud cover will linger with more breaks in the clouds
over inland areas towards morning. Light rain showers and/or
pockets of drizzle are expected through most of the night across
SE GA and coastal NE FL, but most areas will become rain-free
towards morning. Low temps will fall to below normal levels in the
upper 50s/near 60F over inland areas, but generally in the lower
to middle 60s along Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Satellite imagery showed the developing surface low about 250
miles ENE of the northeast Florida coast with local winds backing
more NNW and magnitudes decreasing as the pressure gradient begins
to relax a little. Recent coastal gusts over the past couple of
hours were in the 30-35 mph to 25-30 mph inland toward the St.
Johns River basin. As the low continues to form and drift
northward into the evening, winds will continue to progressively
decrease so scaled back the wind advisory to just the immediate
northeast Florida coast from Duval to Flagler County for gusts
near 40 mph through 6 pm.

Blue skies have broken out generally west of Highway 301 where
mild high temperatures will continue to warm into the mid to upper
70s, while coastal clouds continue to keep the beaches chillier in
the upper 60s.

The backing of low level NNW winds was keeping coastal convergence
and rain potential minimal this afternoon. Continued with patchy
drizzle and a low chance of passing showers mainly for coastal NE
FL through 8 pm, then prevailing dry conditions are expected
overnight, with only a low chance of drizzle/showers near the
Altamaha River basin toward daybreak Sunday morning where wrap-
around moisture could bring some light precipitation.

A much cooler night with lows in the upper 50s inland to low/mid
60s across much of NE FL and the local Atlantic coast, near to
just below average lows for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Surface low pressure will continue to slowly drift north and
eastward away from the area Sunday, with the associated upper low
slowly following behind. This combo may result in a few light
showers as they pull away, mainly from about Waycross north and
eastward. Elsewhere, drier north to northwesterly flow will fill
in as another ridge of high pressure builds southward across the
Ohio River Valley and into the southern States. Less cloud cover
in the drier flow will result in warmer temps as compared to
Saturday, though still slightly below normal with a range from the
mid 70s north to the upper 70s to low 80s south. Dew points in the
mid to upper 50s will also be common across most of the area, with
the exception of some low 60s likely inside the I-95 corridor to
the coast. Clouds continue to decrease into Sunday Night with lows
in the upper 50s to near 60 inland and low to mid 60s near the
coast and St. Johns River.

High pressure shifts further south and eastward on Monday as a
pseudo backdoor front moves across the region through Monday Night
as low pressure continues to pull away to the northeast. A few
very isolated showers will be possible Monday as this feature
moves through, especially closer to the coastal waters. Though
overall, the dry air advection should keep these chances under 10
percent, with generally more sunshine than clouds - especially
inland. With even more sunshine, expect low 80s to be more common
across most of the region, and some upper 70s near the immediate
coast. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies expected Monday Night
with lows generally in the mid to upper 50s inland and low to mid
60s closer to the coast and St. Johns River.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Dry pattern looks to persist through most if not all of the long
term period at this time, as high pressure gets reinforced around
the Wednesday time frame with another pseudo-secondary backdoor
front moving through the Florida Peninsula. The shifting
positioning of the ridge looks to return northeasterly flow to the
region by late in the week, though this regime does not look as
strong as the current event at this time. Temperatures trend near
to slightly above climo during this long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

MVFR CIGS continue at SSI/JAX/CRG/SGJ with pockets of light rain
and/or drizzle, while mostly VFR conds have developed at GNV/VQQ
but a brief period of MVFR CIGS still possible there across inland
NE FL this evening. Overall as gusty North winds continue to
diminish and become more NW overnight, most of the terminals will
see lifting of CIGS to VFR in the 06-12Z time frame and have shown
this trend in latest TAF forecast. NE FL terminals remain VFR on
Sunday with NW winds increasing to 10-12G15-18 knots, while some
wraparound MVFR and IFR CIGS will rotate back into coastal SE GA
and the SSI terminal by mid-day with lowering conditions through
the afternoon hours as per the latest guidance.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Gales continue over the local waters through tonight as an area of
low pressure offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast tracks
northward. Waves of showers with isolated thunderstorms will
continue to impact the coastal waters, with decreasing rain
chances tonight into Sunday as the low tracks away from the local
waters. Small craft advisory conditions develop Sunday and persist
through Monday due to elevated combined seas. High pressure builds
north of the region Tuesday and Wednesday, with a resurgence of
northeast winds trailing a dry frontal passage.

No changes were made to the current Gale Warning through tonight,
with Small Craft advisory conditions beginning early Sunday
through Sunday Night for local waters. Did extended the Small
Craft Advisory for our outer waters through Monday as 7 ft
combined seas linger.

Rip Currents & Surf Zone: High rip current risk continues through
at least Monday for all local beaches. High surf with breakers of
6-9 ft (7 ft this morning reported at Guana Tolomato Matanzas
NERR) will continue through this evening for all local beaches.
Sunday, the high surf advisory will continue for northeast FL
beaches with breakers 6-8 ft under NNW flow while southeast GA
beaches see more NW wind component and lower breaker heights of
4-6 ft, just below high surf criterion.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Coastal flood warning remains in effect through this evening`s
high tide for the entirety of the Atlantic Coastline and St. Johns
River Basin. Though water levels have trended slightly downward
today with general subsiding of the northeasterly flow, many
gauges remain near or at flood stage this afternoon, and many
areas are likely to see moderate flooding once again around high
tide.

Coastal flood warning becomes a coastal flood advisory for the
Atlantic coast and the mouth of the St. Johns River in Duval
County late tonight and through Sunday as water levels subside
somewhat. However, opted to continue coastal flood warning from
about the Main Street Bridge in Jacksonville southward all the way
into Flagler County where more water is expected to stay trapped
due to the more north to northwesterly flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  75  57  80 /  30  30  20   0
SSI  62  74  64  79 /  30  20  20  10
JAX  60  78  61  83 /  30  10  10  10
SGJ  62  79  65  80 /  50  10  10  10
GNV  59  81  60  85 /  20  10   0   0
OCF  60  81  60  83 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ038-132-137-
     325-633.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
     125-138-225-233-333.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-
     225-233-333.

GA...Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-
     166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
     474.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$