280
FXUS62 KJAX 102335
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
735 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk all Local Beaches Today and Friday.
Elevated Risk Returns Early Next Week

- Daily Heat Index up to 107 through Sunday

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Main Hazards: Locally
Heavy Rain, Lightning & Gusty Winds Up to 40-50 mph

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Strong Storms and Localized Flooding Possible through Early this
Evening, Mainly at Inland Locations.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1022
millibars) centered near Bermuda and extending its axis
southwestward across our area. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from
New England through the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Aloft...deep-layered ridging was positioned along the southeastern
seaboard, with troughing progressing eastward across the Great Lakes
and Mid-Mississippi Valleys. Otherwise, troughing was developing
over central and western portions of the Gulf, or along the western
periphery of the Atlantic ridge axis. Latest GOES-East derived Total
Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep tropical moisture
remains in place for locations along and south of I-10, where PWATs
were in the 2.1 - 2.4 inch range, while values north of I-10 were
generally in the 1.9 - 2.1 inch range. High moisture levels and low
level flow veering to a more south or south-southwesterly direction
since yesterday have fostered scattered to numerous showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor early this
afternoon, with activity mostly isolated thus far over the Suwannee
Valley and the I-10 corridor, as well as along the U.S. Highway 301
corridor in southeast GA. Temperatures at 19Z have climbed to the
upper 80s and lower 90s outside of areas impacted by convection,
with dewpoints in the 70s at inland locations and closer to 80 at
coastal locations.

Gradually cooling temperatures aloft and the presence of deep
tropical moisture should allow for convection to increase in
coverage and intensity as the afternoon progresses. Convective
outflows should merge at inland locations during the mid to late
afternoon hours, especially for locations between the I-75 and I-95
corridors in northeast and north central FL, with outflows then
progressing northward and increasing thunderstorm coverage and
intensity over the Okefenokee Swamp in interior southeast GA late
this afternoon through the evening hours. Mesoscale boundary
collisions should allow for convection to "pulse" and become briefly
strong at inland locations, with stronger storms capable of
producing downburst winds of 40-55 mph, along with frequent
lightning strikes and torrential downpours, with localized flooding
possible due to relatively slow storm motion. Low level flow veering
to southwesterly this evening could bring at least scattered
convection back towards the I-95 corridor this evening, with
activity weakening by the mid-evening hours tonight.

Debris cloud cover will tend to thin out after midnight, with
southwesterly flow potentially developing some predawn convection
along the FL Big Bend and Nature Coasts, but activity is not
expected to cross the Suwannee River before sunrise. Fog and low
stratus ceilings could develop over portions of interior southeast
GA. Low level southwesterly flow will keep lows in the 70s area-
wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily potential for isolated strong thunderstorms and localized
flooding.

The local area remains located on the western periphery of surface
high pressure over the Atlantic with weak high pressure aloft
through the weekend. Southwesterly to southerly low level winds will
remain in place, and will continue to pump deep moisture (PWATs 2-
2.3") into the area. With ample moisture in place, the weak
subsidence associated with the mid/upper ridging will not be strong
enough to suppress convection. Expect scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms to develop each day, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours. The steering flow will allow for the Gulf breeze
to move well inland each afternoon, with mergers with the Atlantic
sea breeze occurring between the US-301 corridor towards the I-95
corridor. With the elevated moisture aloft, showers and storms that
do develop could bring periods of heavy rainfall and localized
flooding. Isolated strong storms, maybe a few severe storms, could
bring gusty winds in the 30 to 50 mph range along boundary mergers.

Daytime highs will be in the low-mid 90s along inland locations on
Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 along
the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. Heat
index values will hover just under Heat Advisory criteria, with
values in the upper 90s to around 107F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period Saturday through Wednesday:

- Daily Thunderstorms Potential Each Day Next Week

- Elevated Rip Current Risk Next Week

By Monday, the high pressure axis will shift north resulting in a
return to an onshore flow regime which will persist through the work
week. Deep moisture remain in place with PWAT values above 2 inches
persisting through at least Tuesday. This will continue to result in
scattered to numerous showers and storms each day with localized
flooding concerns and some potential for strong thunderstorms along
boundary collisions. As we move into the middle to latter part of
the work week, PWAT values will fall to seasonable around 1.75
inches. In response, expect rain chances to fall slightly with
coverage becoming more scattered Wednesday and Thursday.

The onshore flow will also cause afternoon temperatures to cool
slightly, generally topping out in the 85-90 degree range most
places by Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the 70s will persist.

Rip current risk will also become elevated rather than moderate as a
result of the pattern shift.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Line of storms between GNV/VQQ at the start of the TAF period will
fade this evening and bring mainly just mid/high clouds with -SHRA
at the remaining terminals through 02-03Z time frame. VFR through
the overnight hours at coastal terminals with light winds, while
near calm winds at VQQ/GNV will lead to potential for LIFR CIGS and
IFR VSBYS from 08-12Z and have continued the trend with this TAF
package. Another active day of scattered to numerous showers and
embedded storms at all terminals on Friday afternoon and for now
have placed PROB30 groups for MVFR TSRA activity from 16-22Z at GNV
and 17-23Z at VQQ/CRG/JAX/SGJ and 18-24Z at SSI. SE winds will
develop behind sea breeze at CRG/SSI/SGJ after 16-18Z.

&&

.MARINE...


Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact mainly the near
shore coastal waters through the early evening hours tonight.
Otherwise, Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda this
afternoon will shift southward while gradually weakening on Friday
as a frontal boundary shifts towards the southeastern states. This
front will stall and weaken well to the north of our local waters
this weekend. Prevailing winds will become southwesterly from Friday
through the upcoming weekend, with the afternoon sea breeze shifting
winds to southeasterly each afternoon across the near shore waters.
Showers and thunderstorms developing over coastal locations during
the afternoon hours will shift eastward across our local waters
during the late afternoon and evening hours from Friday through the
upcoming weekend. High pressure will then build down the
southeastern seaboard early next week, with onshore winds forecast
to develop by Monday afternoon, with breezy conditions and building
seas forecast towards Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Rip Currents: Diminished winds and dropping surf will tend to lower
the rip current risk toward the moderate range today. Prevailing
winds will become south-southwesterly by Friday, with a lingering
easterly ocean swell and onshore winds developing during the
afternoon hours behind the inland moving sea breeze keeping a lower-
end moderate risk at area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Winds will steadily veer to become southerly to southwesterly Today.
This will allow for the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast sea breezes to
push inland by the afternoon hours, with showers and storms
developing and increasing in coverage near Highway 301. As weaker
transport winds develop, dispersions will be Fair over the next few
days. Otherwise, RH values will sit at Good levels through the
weekend as moisture moves in from the Gulf and towards southeast
Georgia and northeast Florida.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic wind shifts will occur from
thunderstorm activity. Patchy fog is expected across inland areas
the next couple of mornings, with widespread dense fog unlikely.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As far as coastal water levels, we expect tidal water levels to peak
to near the Action stage through Friday due to the recent onshore
flow but mainly due to the new moon phase which is Friday, Sept
11th. Mostly nuisance type flooding is expected for a brief time
into the weekend, including in the St Johns River Basin.

As far as rainfall today, isolated pockets of about 4 inches are
possible mainly across an area from eastern Marion county northward
to around Baker county. These storms may cause temporary flooding,
especially in any poor drainage or urbanized areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  72  92 /  50  40  30  50
SSI  77  89  77  90 /  30  40  20  50
JAX  74  92  74  92 /  40  60  20  70
SGJ  75  90  75  90 /  30  60  30  70
GNV  73  92  73  91 /  70  60  30  70
OCF  73  92  73  92 /  50  60  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$