738
FXUS62 KJAX 271625
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1225 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend.
  Coastal Flood Warning Widespread Moderate Tidal Flooding along
  the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway & St. Johns River
  Basin through Thursday. Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal
  Flooding within the St. Johns River Basin. High Surf Advisory
  through Thursday Night at the Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk
  for Rip Currents at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming
  Weekend. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through
  Friday. Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters through
  at least Friday. Gusty Northeasterly Winds Continue at Coastal
  Locations through Friday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights: Through Tonight

-Coastal hazards remain in place this period

The region will remain between strong high pressure to the north
northeast, and an inverted trough to the south southeast this
period. This pattern will continue the elevated onshore flow. A few
spotty showers possible over NE FL coast through this afternoon.
Temperatures will be near average Today. A broad range of
temperatures is forecast Tonight due to the onshore flow, with lows
over inland SE GA in the lower to middle 50s, and upper 60s to
around 70 NE FL coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Minor to Moderate
Flooding During Times of High Tide Continuing Along the Atlantic
Coast and Within the Intracoastal Waterway and the Entirety of the
St. Johns River Basin.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf
Advisories Continuing at the Northeast FL Beaches. A High Risk for
Deadly Rip Currents will Persist at All Area Beaches. Pounding Surf
During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major Beach Erosion.

The upper level cutoff low situated over the Bahamas will gradually
ascend northward on Wednesday prior to shifting eastward on
Thursday. Concurrently, reinforcing surface high pressure will
continue wedging southward along the southeastern seaboard,
maintaining a tight local pressure gradient as well as persistent
coastal troughing across the adjacent Atlantic waters. This
atmospheric pattern will sustain robust northeasterly flow across
the forecast area, with the most pronounced winds anticipated along
the immediate coastline and within the St. Johns River basin.

Northeasterly winds will intensify Wednesday, featuring sustained
speeds of 20 to 25 mph alongside frequent gusts reaching 30 to 35
mph across coastal northeast Florida. Breezy conditions will expand
further inland toward the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Strengthening low level convergence along the northern periphery of
the coastal trough, coupled with persistent onshore flow, will
facilitate the inland transport of Atlantic moisture, promoting
increased shower activity along the First Coast from Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. Showers will initially move onshore
south of Mayport before expanding westward into portions of the St.
Johns River basin, particularly south of the Interstate 10 corridor.
Forecast guidance indicates precipitation probabilities ranging
between 20 and 40 percent across areas extending from southeast of
Mayport to southeastern Marion County, with chances diminishing
considerably further inland and becoming minimal to nil west of
Highway 301. Despite the anticipated increase in shower coverage,
overall accumulation is expected to remain predominantly light.

Persistent onshore flow will keep Wednesday daytime highs in the mid
70s along and east of the Interstate 95 corridor, with upper 70s to
lower 80s observed further inland. A comparable temperature
distribution is expected Thursday, with coastal highs reaching the
mid to upper 70s and inland temperatures rising to the lower 80s,
alongside localized mid 80s across north central Florida. Wednesday
night lows will generally range from the upper 60s to lower 70s
along the coast and across eastern portions of the forecast area,
dipping into the lower to middle 60s further inland.

On Thursday, surface high pressure will gradually weaken and
reorient over the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians,
allowing the local pressure gradient to slowly ease. Nevertheless,
persistent coastal troughing and convergent east northeasterly flow
will continue to carry isolated to scattered showers onshore across
coastal northeast Florida south of Neptune Beach and into the St.
Johns River basin. Winds will gradually abate inland Thursday
evening while remaining breezy near the coast. Continued moisture
advection will favor the development of low stratus across much of
the region during the predawn and early morning hours Friday.
Overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s across
inland southeast Georgia, whereas persistent onshore flow will
maintain temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across northeast
Florida.

Coastal Hazards: Persistent strong onshore flow, combined with
elevated astronomical tides associated with lunar perigee, will
sustain widespread moderate tidal flooding along the Atlantic coast,
Intracoastal Waterway, and St. Johns River basin through Thursday
night. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect. Hazardous surf and a
High Risk of Rip Currents will persist at area beaches, with
significant beach erosion likely around times of high tide.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues During Times of High
Tide Within the St. Johns River Basin.

- Dangerous Surf Conditions Persist, with an Elevated Rip Current
Risk Likely Continuing through the Upcoming Weekend.

- Increasing Chances for Showers and a Few Thunderstorms on Sunday
and Sunday Evening.

The synoptic pattern will gradually evolve through the weekend,
introducing heightened possibilities for showers and thunderstorms
by Sunday. Upper level ridging centered over the southern Gulf of
Mexico will expand northeastward across the region through Friday.
At the surface, reinforcing high pressure building southeastward
from the Great Lakes will maintain a persistent wedge along the
southeastern seaboard, sustaining breezy onshore flow and coastal
troughing through Saturday.

Friday and Saturday: Persistent onshore flow will maintain a limited
shower threat across coastal areas from south of Ponte Vedra Beach
into Flagler County Friday, with coverage potentially increasing
Saturday as low level winds gradually veer, allowing isolated to
widely scattered showers to migrate farther inland during the
afternoon. Continued maritime moisture advection will also favor
periods of low stratus development across inland locations during
the predawn and early morning hours. High temperatures will
generally range from the mid to upper 70s along and east of
Interstate 95 to the lower to middle 80s farther inland. Overnight
lows will settle into the lower to middle 60s across inland areas,
while persistent onshore flow keeps coastal temperatures in the
upper 60s to around 70F.

Sunday and Monday: A more pronounced shift in the synoptic pattern
is anticipated as a southern stream trough amplifies over the lower
Mississippi Valley on Saturday before progressing eastward across
the forecast area Sunday afternoon and evening, ultimately moving
offshore by Monday afternoon. As surface high pressure retreats
offshore of coastal New England, low level winds will gradually veer
to southerly ahead of the approaching system, facilitating the
northward transport of deeper moisture into northeast Florida and
southeast Georgia. This combination of increasing atmospheric
moisture and large scale forcing associated with the advancing
trough will favor numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
spreading from west to east across the region, primarily Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Recent NBM guidance indicates a notable increase in precipitation
probabilities, with PoPs reaching 60 to 70 percent Sunday and Sunday
evening as a wet and unsettled weather pattern advances eastward
across the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with
potential of  isolated embedded thunderstorms within the broader
area of showers Sunday afternoon. Precipitation could linger into
Monday morning, particularly along the Interstate 95 corridor,
before the system moves offshore and drier conditions gradually
return.

High temperatures Sunday and Monday will generally range from the
mid to upper 70s along the coast to the lower and middle 80s inland.
Overnight lows will remain in the mid to upper 60s Saturday night
before settling into the middle 60s Sunday night as increasing cloud
cover and precipitation overspread the region.

Coastal Hazards: Elevated coastal water levels and hazardous beach
conditions may persist into the weekend as the prolonged onshore
flow gradually weakens. Minor to moderate tidal flooding will remain
a concern, particularly within the St. Johns River basin, while
rough surf and an elevated rip current risk continue along area
beaches. The duration and severity of these hazards will depend on
the evolution of the coastal pressure pattern and the eventual
relaxation of persistent onshore winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
The elevated onshore flow will continue this 18z TAF period. Winds
will be gusty this afternoon, especially near the coast. With loss
of daytime heating, inland sites will have winds diminish Tonight,
however the coastal sites will remain gusty. Winds will be gusty at
each TAF site during the day Wednesday. A few spotty showers will be
possible along the NE FL coast this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure to the north will slowly move more toward the
northeast through Wednesday, as inverted trough slide west across
southern FL. The high will weaken to the northeast, as the inverted
trough moves into the Gulf Thursday. With the weakening high, and
trough moving away, the onshore flow will weaken into Thursday
night. Another high will build to the north over the weekend.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High risk of rip currents and high surf to
continue through Thursday. The high risk of rip currents will likely
continue through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
- Along The I-95 Corridor Through Thursday Night

Very limited shower activity will continue to occasionally move
onshore along the northeast Florida coast through tonight, mainly
for locations from St. Augustine to Palatka and points southward.
Shower coverage will increase on Wednesday and Thursday for coastal
northeast Florida and the St. Johns River basin to the south of
Jacksonville. Otherwise, dry weather will continue during the next
several days for southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley, and the
western interior of Northeast Florida.

Strong northeasterly surface and transport winds will continue along
the northeast Florida coastal counties through Thursday, with breezy
conditions elsewhere yielding fair to good daytime dispersion values
area-wide. Breezy surface and transport winds during the overnight
hours will result in elevated nighttime dispersion values for
locations along and east of I-95 each night through Thursday.
Surface and transport winds will then shift to east-northeasterly on
Friday and easterly on Saturday, with breezy speeds keeping fair to
good daytime dispersion values in the forecast area-wide.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  79  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  63  75  66  75 /   0   0  10   0
JAX  64  77  67  78 /  10  10  30  10
SGJ  71  77  71  79 /  10  30  50  40
GNV  64  80  68  82 /   0   0  20  20
OCF  66  81  70  84 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-124-125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Thursday night for GAZ154-
     166.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$