673
FXUS62 KJAX 061640
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1240 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Danger at Inland Locations this Afternoon. Near
Critically Low Humidity Values Expected Along with Ongoing Drought
Conditions

- Near Record High Temperatures Today & Thursday

- Fire Weather Watch for Locations East of U.S.-301 on Thurs
Afternoon & Evening. Gusty Southwesterly Winds, Near Critically Low
Humidity& Ongoing Drought Conditions

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms on Thursday Afternoon &
Evening. Main Impact Area: Locations Along and North of the
Interstate 10 Corridor. Main Hazards: Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph,
Frequent Lightning Strikes & Isolated Tornadoes

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms from Friday Afternoon through
Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Very Warm Temperatures This afternoon

- Fire Danger remains high in the breezy southerly flow

Rest of this afternoon: Mostly sunny and dry with above normal temps
pushing into the lower 90s inland and 80s along the Atlantic
beaches. Breezy SW flow around 15G20-25 mph will become SE along the
Atlantic Coast as the sea breeze pushes into the I-95/US-17
corridors. These above normal temps and breezy winds this afternoon
and evening will keep fire danger at high levels.

Tonight: High pressure ridge axis will get shunted southward ahead
of approaching frontal boundary across the SE US states. This will
lead to a slow increase in high clouds along with light SW winds at
5-10 mph which will keep Min temps elevated, only falling into the
mid/upper 60s inland and around 70F along the Atlantic Coast. Some
patchy fog will be possible along the I-75 corridor/Suwannee Valley
during the overnight hours in the more moist flow off the NE Gulf.
Across far inland SE GA...some pre-frontal showers and/or isolated
storm activity may push into local areas to the NW of Waycross
towards sunrise, but confidence/timing in this occurrence still
remains on the low to moderate side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday, with
greatest chance north of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine


A cold front will move southeast across SE GA Thursday. Showers and
thunderstorms and are expected to develop along and ahead of the
boundary. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. The
storm chances will decrease Thursday evening, as the front moves
into NE FL, as better energy is north near the surface low.

Ahead of the front, temperatures will be well above average, with
highs over NE FL in the lower to mid 90s. North of the front highs
in the 80s will be more common Thursday.

The front will move into central FL Thursday night as high pressure
builds to the north. This front will waver north around the FL/GA
line Friday and Friday night, providing a focus for additional
convection. Temperatures Thursday night through Friday night will
vary widely from north to south due to the location of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Unsettled weather pattern with rounds of showers and thunderstorms
over the weekend into early next week

The stalled front will linger near the FL/GA line over the weekend,
continuing to be a focus for showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front will move southeast across the area early in
the week. High pressure will build behind this front, bringing more
settled weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures will trend a little below normal following the front
Tuesday, otherwise above seasonal readings are expected this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions through the period with mainly just high
clouds at times. Breezy SW to SE winds this afternoon at 10-12 knots
with gusts to 15-18 knots at times, these will fade to 6 knots or
less after sunset tonight as VFR conds continue. Light SW flow off
the NE Gulf may lead to some patchy fog at GNV/VQQ in the 07-11Z
time frame, but probs remain less than 20% at this time and will
leave out of the forecast for now. Breezy SW flow at 12-15 knots
will develop late in the TAF period after 15Z Thursday with gusts to
20-25 knots possible towards 18Z Thursday. Any pre-frontal shower
and/or storm activity is expected to occur just after the current
TAF period on Thursday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure centered near Bermuda will weaken as a cold front
enters the southeastern states tonight. Southerly winds with speeds
to Caution levels are expected through tonight. The cold front will
slow its forward progress as it approaches our area on Thursday,
with breezy southwesterly winds expected across our local waters
through Thursday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible
from late Thursday afternoon through early Thursday evening ahead of
this front, with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible,
mainly across the Georgia waters. This front will slow its forward
progress on Friday morning and will then stall by Friday evening
across the northeast Florida waters. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will be possible from Friday afternoon through the
weekend, with another round of strong to severe thunderstorms
possible on Sunday afternoon and evening, well in advance of another
cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. This front
will sweep southeastward across our local waters on Monday, followed
by high pressure briefly building over the southeastern states on
Monday night and Tuesday.

Rip Currents:

Southeast winds will become breezy this afternoon, with these winds
combining with a slowly fading easterly ocean swell to create a
lower end moderate risk at all area beaches. Breezy southwesterly
winds will yield a low risk at area beaches on Thursday. Winds will
shift to northeasterly on Friday, likely resulting in a moderate
risk at area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas Of High Dispersions Thursday
- Patchy High Dispersions Sunday, Monday And Tuesday

A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday. This front will then stall, providing continued convective
chances through the weekend. Another cold front will move through
early next week, bringing another round of showers and storms. High
pressure will build toward the middle of next week ushering in a
period of drier weather.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog Tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for:

Wed, May 6:
JAX: 96/2012
CRG: 96/2012
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 95/2012

Thu, May 7:
JAX: 94/1977
CRG: 94/1977
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 93/1962

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  84  62  79 /  10  90  10  20
SSI  71  87  68  76 /  10  40  20  20
JAX  68  95  70  84 /   0  30  20  20
SGJ  69  97  72  84 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  66  93  72  91 /   0   0  20  30
OCF  66  91  72  91 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for FLZ024-038-124-125-132-137-138-140-225-232-
     233-237-325-333-425-433-533-633.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$