532
FXUS62 KJAX 201812
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
212 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Direct Impacts from Tropical Depression #2 Not Expected

- Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms this
  Afternoon. Widely Scattered Strong Thunderstorms Possible.
  Hazards: Gusty Winds 30-50 mph and localized Flooding due to
  training activity. Lesser storm coverage is expected Tuesday
  and Wednesday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through Monday, Possible High Risk
  Tuesday

- Small Craft Advisory headline will be posted for area waters
  starting Tuesday afternoon

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
- Seasonably Hot Summer Conditions

- Scattered Thunderstorms with a few strong storms capable of heavy
  downpours and strong outflow wind gusts

- Brief periods of training thunderstorms may lead to localized
flooding in urban areas along the I-95 corridor during the late
afternoon.

TD#2 is over the Gulf this afternoon, and still on the forecast
track of a general northwest movement today, but very slow at about
3 to 5 mph. A tropical-like airmass over the region, though
there is some dry air in the mid levels that is rotating around
TD#2 that is located in the eastern Gulf. In addition to that,
there is some negative vorticity advection which will act to
suppress some of the convection during the afternoon and
evening. However, this will be compensated somewhat by strong
heating, and developing instability with 2500-3000 MLCAPE values
around 2-4 pm. As anticipated, most of the activity will be
inland initially, but we should see convection fire up along in
the St Johns River Basin and the I-95 corridor area this
afternoon where moderate to locally strong low level convergence
develops. General scattered to numerous showers and storms are
anticipated, but some pretty low chances near 20-30 percent are
noted around the Altamaha River Basin. All convective activity
will be capable of strong wind gusts of at least 40-50 mph at
times, with locally heavy rainfall as well given the high PWAT
air and pretty deep warm cloud depth (about 13500 feet). We
should see isolated to scattered showers and storms this evening
around 7-8 pm, but most activity is expected to fade by
midnight. Possible isolated showers may move toward the wester
zones late tonight, but nothing too impressive at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier Conditions Overall Tuesday and Wednesday

Tropical Depression 2 (TD2) will continue to slowly drift
west/northwest away from the region Tuesday and Wednesday, as high
pressure ridging in the low levels builds across the Florida
Peninsula once again. A modest pressure gradient will persist
between the two features during the short term but especially
Tuesday, with a south to southeasterly flow around 10-20mph with
gusts up to near 30 mph at times.

Guidance is rather split on the extent of diurnal convection on
Tuesday, as guidance like the GFS is more aggressive with a dry
slot aloft cycling into the area, in addition to more
subsidence being introduced as TD2 pulls away and ridging moves
overhead. Have essentially tried to "meet in the middle" with
respect to PoPs, with a general 30-40% chance of showers and
storms from well west of the I-95 corridor and around 15-30%
closer to the coast as the Atlantic sea breeze should be enough
for at least some isolated to widely scattered convection to
develop. Wednesday, overall better agreement that the primary
chances for rain will be over far inland GA and parts of the
Upper Suwannee Valley.

Southerly flow and some subsidence will allow temps to rise a few
degrees above normal each day once again, with mostly mid 90s
expected except some lower 90s for far western areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon Thunderstorms, Especially Friday &
into the Weekend
- Potential Heat Advisory Conditions Late Week & Weekend

A frontal boundary will drop southward towards southeast GA
Wednesday Night and into Thursday before becoming nearly stationary
for the next several days thereafter. This will rather quickly bring
widespread higher moisture back into the area, especially Friday and
into next weekend. This will therefore increase chances for showers
and thunderstorms from south to north accordingly for the end of
work week and into the upcoming weekend. As the flow direction
becomes more southwest to westerly, temperatures are expected to
rise a bit above climo. With the increase in moisture, this could
allow for conditions to reach near heat advisory criteria late week
into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Scattered t-storms are in the forecast and may affect most of the
TAFs with some storms potentially strong with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. Primarily MVFR conditions are shown in the TAFs, but short
period of IFR is possible with the activity. We indicated some
showers and storms lingering with vicinity wording around 00z,
and still looks on track ending generally by 03z or 04z for the
TAFs. Otherwise, VFR expected tonight and Tuesday morning. For
sfc winds, south- southeast winds will be 10-15 knots with gusts
of around 20 knots this afternoon outside of showers and
storms. Winds will trend down after 00z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Breezy southerly winds continue across the waters as a tropical
depression in the Gulf strengthens into a Tropical Storm later today
or tonight. The pressure gradient between the tropical system and
the Bermuda high will lead to a long duration of breezy south winds
to Exercise Caution level today and tonight. There`s good potential
for south winds to increase to Small Craft Advisory levels (SCA),
or around 20 knots and up to 25 knots, by Tuesday afternoon so
SCA headline is in effect. The prolonged south winds will
elevate seas further to about 4-6 ft by Tuesday. For the second
half of the week, winds will decrease in strength as the
tropical system moves farther west along the northern Gulf
coast. While winds slowly decrease, a shift to offshore flow
will develop as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest
by the end of the week and then stalls just north of the waters
this weekend. Isolated strong thunderstorms with gusty winds may
impact the area waters later this afternoon and again on
Tuesday, mainly within 20 nm of the coast.

Rip Currents:

Breezy longshore flow will keep breakers around 2-3 feet and result
in a solid Moderate Risk of rip currents this afternoon as the sea
breeze pushes onshore. Increasing surf Tuesday will elevate breakers
to near 3-4 feet and may be necessary to have High Risk for rip
currents for Southeast GA and Northeast FL beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Through Midweek Inland

Ample moisture associated with Tropical Depression Two well to our
west will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, with the highest chances being between about
3 pm and 7 pm. Outside of any showers/storms, a fairly breezy
southerly flow will be expected, which will shift more southeasterly
later this evening as a sea breeze tries to push inland. Dispersions
will therefore be in the good range away from the coast today and
through the next several days as well, with areas of high
dispersions possible - especially between about I-75 and HWY 301 in
north FL, and inland north of I-10 in GA. No significant concerns
overnight tonight before chances for showers and storms are expected
to be overall lower on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday as well as a
breezy flow continues. A frontal boundary drops southward Wednesday
Night and Thursday, returning elevated chances for showers and
t`storms for many.

Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not
expected for the next several nights. Gusty and erratic winds will
be possible in and near thunderstorms, with occasional outflow
boundaries capable of producing sudden wind shifts well away from
ongoing convection. No significant impacts expected from TD2.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  75  93  75 /  50  30  40  10
SSI  92  81  93  81 /  20  20  20  10
JAX  95  76  95  77 /  50  30  20  10
SGJ  93  78  94  77 /  50  20  20  10
GNV  92  76  93  75 /  70  20  40   0
OCF  91  76  93  75 /  60  20  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 5 AM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$