801
FXUS62 KJAX 011810
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
110 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue. Minor Tidal Flooding
  Continues for St Johns River through Monday night,. High Risk
  for Rip Currents and High Surf (NE FL beaches) through
  Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Tuesday

- Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for NE FL Coast.
  Isolated Thunderstorms Possible this evening and tonight,
  south of I-10. Rainfall amounts 1/2 to 2 with localized
  amounts up to 3 to 4 for Northeast FL south of Jacksonville

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible for coastal NE FL
  this evening and overnight.

- Minor tidal flooding withing the St Johns River basin continues

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

A tight local pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the
NNE and inverted troughing to the east over the coastal waters will
continue ENE winds 10-15 mph gusting to around 25 mph to near 30 mph
at the coast. Scattered to numerous Showers spurred by energy aloft
from a passing shortwave trough moving across the FL panhandle and
the deep south and well above average moisture levels and coastal
convergence will continue to lift across NE FL and also across the
SE GA coast closer to the inverted trough. Some instability and
cooler mid level temperatures will support isolated embedded
T`storms that may briefly enhance heavy downpours. Overall rainfall
amounts of a quarter to half inch may materialize through sunset,
but most rainfall amounts will be under a quarter of an inch,
locally higher where showers linger longer. Temperatures briefly
warmed to the low 80s in portions of north Jacksonville under a a
break in cloud cover, but otherwise still expecting temperatures not
to rise above the upper 70s for NE FL and mid 70s over SE GA.

Tonight, showers will lift more to the SE GA coast with scattered to
numerous showers lifting from central FL into north central FL. Where
any showers train over the same area, upwards of 2 to 3 inches could
fall which may lead to localized flooding concerns in low lying
areas, especially coastal low lying areas around high tide.

Skies will remain cloudy tonight with decreasing winds inland away
from the coast 6-12 mph with an occasional gust to 15 to 20
mph. But, remain breezy at the coast 10-20 mph with gusts to 25
mph. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s over SE GA and warmer
across NE FL in the upper 60s to near 70 at the coast, except
mid 60s over the Suwannee Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Slight Risk of Flooding NE FL Coast due to Excessive Rainfall Mon

Breezy east northeast onshore flow will persist into early week,
supporting widespread showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms,
particularly Monday afternoon. The greatest convective coverage and
rainfall potential will focus along and east of the Highway 301
corridor, where persistent onshore flow, coastal trough and
convergence, and anomalously high precipitable water values will
favor the potential for enhanced rainfall. General rainfall amounts
of 0.50 to 1.50 inches are expected east of Highway 301, with WPC
highlighting the potential for localized totals of 2 to 3 inches,
particularly near the coast where low-level convergence will be
maximized. PoPs will peak around 60 to 70 percent from areas east of
Highway 301 to the First Coast before decreasing to 30 to 40 percent
Monday night as an upper-level shortwave trough shifts eastward.

On Tuesday, winds will gradually veer to the east, while abundant
atmospheric moisture, with PWAT values remaining approximately one
inch above seasonal averages, supports scattered showers and
isolated afternoon thunderstorms across Northeast Florida. Coverage
will be considerably lower across Southeast Georgia, where
precipitation chances will range from single digits to 20 percent
near the FL and GA border. Rain chances will steadily diminish later
in the day, becoming negligible by Tuesday evening. High
temperatures will range from 75 to 80 degrees Monday, increasing to
the mid 70s along the coast and lower 80s inland Tuesday. Overnight
lows will generally remain near 70 degrees along the coast, falling
into the lower to mid 60s across inland areas. Breezy conditions
will persist both days, with peak wind gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential midweek

- Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone
  conditions.

- Drier conditions at end of the week and next weekend

A more progressive synoptic pattern will take shape by midweek as
high pressure shifts northeast and an amplified upper-level trough
and associated cold front advance eastward from the Mississippi
Valley toward the Southeast. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of
the approaching boundary will transport Gulf moisture northward
across the forecast area, maintaining favorable conditions for
showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday will remain unsettled, with
partly sunny skies and widely scattered to scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms, primarily during the afternoon. High
temperatures will range from the upper 70s along the coast to the
lower and middle 80s inland, with overnight lows in the mid to upper
60s.

The cold front will approach the region Thursday before progressing
through Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida Thursday night and
Friday. Ahead of the boundary, southwesterly flow will support
limited shower and thunderstorm development Thursday, with activity
primarily focused across the Suwannee Valley and Southeast Georgia.
Guidance suggests precipitation probabilities of 25 to 35 across
these areas, with generally lower to nil chances elsewhere. High
temperatures will remain relatively warm, ranging from the upper 70s
to lower 80s, while overnight lows fall into the mid 60s.

By Friday and Saturday, behind the front, cooler and drier air will
filter across Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia. Mostly clear
to partly cloudy skies and predominantly dry conditions are expected
as more stable air settles across the region. Winds will become
lighter and shift to the northwest behind the front. High
temperatures will gradually moderate into the 75 to 80 degree range
by Saturday, while overnight lows fall into the mid to upper 50s,
with lower 60s possible along the coast. Overall, a noticeable
cooling trend is expected through the weekend, with overnight
temperatures returning closer to seasonal averages following the
frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

The 18Z TAF period will begin with VFR ceilings with MVFR visibility
and ceiling restrictions for SSI/SGJ/VQQ/GNV where showers will
continue the next 2 to 3 hours. SHowers will lift from GNV and
spread north and east the rest of the afternoon. Breezy ENE winds
will be 12-15 knots with gusts around 20-25 knots. Winds will
decrease tonight away from the coast to 5-8 knots with showers
continuing along the coast with a lull at SSI late tonight before
resuming Monday with winds increasing back to 12-15 knots along the
coast and 10-12 knots inland. Lower ceilings overnight should be
inland west of SSI and to the northwest of the Northeast FL TAF
sites.

&&

.MARINE...


Strong high pressure wedged along the coast will continue elevated
seas and small craft advisory conditions through at least Monday
evening. Though winds will decrease through Tuesday, lingering
elevated seas will remain through the middle of the week. High
pressure will remain to the north but with a weaker influence
through the second half of the week resulting in lighter winds and
lowering seas. Bouts of showers and heavy downpours will be possible
through the middle of the upcoming week, especially Monday and
Tuesday as coastal troughing develops.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Dangerous surf zone conditions continue with a High rip current risk
at all area beaches through Monday and elevated to high surf for the
entire coast. The highest breakers, around 6-8 feet will be from
Ponte Vedra south through Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weakening cold front settling southward will maintain breezy east
northeast winds through Monday, particularly along the coast, where
gusts up 25 to 30 mph are possible. Periods of showers will move
across the area, with coverage increasing late this afternoon and
evening and continuing into Monday. A few afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms are also possible today, primarily south of
the Interstate 10 corridor. Despite breezy surface and transport
winds, persistent overcast skies will limit mixing heights,
resulting in generally fair to good daytime dispersion. Winds will
gradually shift to the east early next week before becoming
southerly by midweek as wind speeds decrease.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not anticipated through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible across Northeast Florida from this afternoon through Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal levels continue to trend downward after each successive cycle.
While elevated tides are expected to continue within the St Johns
River basin and its tributaries, water levels are likely to remain
in the 1.5-2.0 feet MHHW (mean higher high water), or at "Minor"
levels. Elevated tides are likely to continue through Monday and
possibly until Wednesday. As winds decrease this upcoming week,
natural flow direction will allow tides to lower gradually.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  79  64  82 /  30  10   0  10
SSI  66  76  67  77 /  50  40  30  30
JAX  66  78  67  80 /  50  50  30  20
SGJ  69  77  70  79 /  40  60  40  30
GNV  67  80  67  83 /  50  40  10  40
OCF  68  81  68  84 /  60  40  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ038-125-
     132-137-225-325-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$