982
FXUS62 KJAX 021741
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
141 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Evening showers with isolated storms will quickly fade inland
with loss of diurnal heating with just passing coastal showers
expected after 9 pm mainly impacting St. Johns and Flagler
counties through daybreak Wednesday. Breezy NE winds will weaken
after sunset as well as the local pressure gradient weakens
between the broad low offshore of the southeast Florida Atlantic
coast and high pressure north of the region. Thinning high clouds
tonight will bring mostly clear skies across southeast Georgia
with mostly to partly cloudy northeast FL coastal counties
generally south of St. Augustine.

Below average lows tonight will range in the low/mid 60s across
inland southeast Georgia where some patchy early morning fog is
possible due to less cloud cover and light to near calm northerly
winds. Near to slightly above average low temperatures will range
in the low/mid 70s across much of northeast Florida to the
Atlantic coast under passing low level clouds and more elevated
NNE winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

High pressure will be northeast of the region Wednesday, with
weakening low pressure in an inverted trough south of the area. With
the low weakening, the pressure gradient over area will be less.
However, winds at the coast will remain on the gusty side. Drier air
and subsidence under the ridge will yield dry weather over interior
SE GA, while the chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
scattered to numerous closer to the NE FL coast. Temperatures will
be near normal Wednesday.

The inverted trough to the south will continue to weaken Wednesday
night through Thursday night, with high pressure to the northeast. A
few showers will be possible along the NE FL coast Wednesday night.
On Thursday, it will remain dry over interior SE GA, while scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected elsewhere. A dry night is
forecast Thursday night. Temperatures will trend near normal
Wednesday night through Thursday night.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A weak inverted trough will remain just to the south Friday, with
high pressure to the northeast. The high will move away to the
northeast Saturday into Sunday, as a weak cold front moves southeast
toward the southeast US coast and dissipates. Precipitation chances
will trend below normal through the weekend, with greatest chances
over NE FL. Temperatures will moderate to above normal through the
weekend.

The high will be to the northeast Monday and Tuesday. The moist
onshore flow will result in increasing precipitation chances early
next week, with temperatures near seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Periodic MVFR ceilings for coastal terminals under gusty NNE
winds through late afternoon and passing showers, most likely at
CRG and SGJ where TEMPO groups were included. Rain chances shift
inland toward VQQ and GNV into the late afternoon, then fade after
00z. Only a low (< 20%) of a coastal shower near SGJ with MVFR
ceilings after 00z, so left out VCSH for now but did indicated
prevailing MVFR ceilings through 06z Wednesday, then VFR. VFR for
most terminals after 00z tonight except for usual MVFR shallow fog
between 07-12z at VQQ with some possible periods of MVFR at CRG
and SGJ due to passing stratocumulus clouds through 18z Wednesday.
Breezy NE winds return mid-morning (13-15z) Wednesday, but
strength will be weaker than today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Low pressure offshore of the southeast Florida Atlantic coast
will track farther offshore through Wednesday night. Coastal
troughs will continue over the local Atlantic waters through the
weekend with high pressure north of the region. Small craft
advisory conditions subside late today.

Rip Currents: High rip current risk continues for all local
beaches today, and northeast Florida beaches Wednesday. A moderate
rip current risk is expected for southeast Georgia beaches
Wednesday. An elevated rip current risk continues through the end
of the week with persistent onshore flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Water levels rose into minor flood levels during the Monday evening
and overnight high tides within portions of the St. Johns River
basin to the south of downtown Jacksonville, as well as within the
Intracoastal Waterway (ICCW) in coastal Flagler and St. Johns
Counties.

Persistent northeasterly winds will continue to create trapped
tides at these locations, resulting in minor flooding around
times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect,
which lighlights mainly nuisance type flooding around times of
high tide.

Total water levels will continue to rise within the St. Johns
basin this week with the approach of the full moon on Sunday Sept
7th. Latest guidance indicates that water levels will generally
rise between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)
around times of high tide from this week through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  62  88  66 /  10   0  10   0
SSI  83  70  85  74 /  30  10  20  10
JAX  85  69  88  70 /  50  10  40  10
SGJ  84  75  87  73 /  60  20  40  20
GNV  88  69  91  69 /  40  10  30  10
OCF  88  69  90  71 /  40  10  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-132-
     137-138-233-333-633.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452-
     454-470-472-474.

&&

$$