423
FXUS62 KJAX 200007
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
807 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerously HOT Weather Continues through Thursday. Heat Advisories
from 11 AM  8 PM Today for Locations South & East of Waycross. Heat
Advisories Likely Again on Thursday & Possible on Friday

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Each Day.
Main Impact Areas through Thursday: Along & South of FL/GA Border.
Afternoon & Evening TStorm Coverage Increases Friday through Sunday.
Strong to Isolated Severe Storms are Possible Each Afternoon &
Evening. Primary Hazards: Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning
Strikes, and

- Torrential, Slow Moving Downpours that Could Create Localized
Flooding

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Highlights through Tonight:

- Near Record High Temperatures with Dangerous Heat Indices for
Portions of Our Area. Heat Advisories from 11 AM through 8 PM today
for Locations South and East of Waycross, GA.

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible this Afternoon
and Evening Across Northeast and North Central FL. Wet Microburst
Potential within Stronger Storms, Possibly Creating Wind Gusts of 40-
60 mph, along with Frequent Lightning Strikes and Localized Flooding.

Mostly sunny skies for most of the morning have allowed temperatures
to rise into the 90s so far, expected to reach near 100 degrees for
portions of southeast Georgia today. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect for most of the area through 8pm for hazardous heat index
values, with the same area under another advisory tomorrow.

Plenty of instability and moisture is present across northeast
Florida this afternoon, posing a threat to some isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms, mainly from boundary collisions through this
evening. Primary concern will be damaging winds up to 60 mph,
although heavy downpours may cause localized flooding problems,
especially near locations that received decent rain yesterday, we
also can`t rule out some small hail again. This morning, the Storm
Prediction Center placed northeast Florida and the southern portions
of southeast Georgia in a `Marginal` risk of severe winds for today.
Overall, storms will begin to dissipate after sunset, but we may see
some lingering showers and isolated storms through the late evening.
With the drier air in place over southeast Georgia closer to the
front, precipitation is unlikely north of Waycross today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period (Thursday and Friday):

- Potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms each
  afternoon

- Heat Advisories will be issued for Thursday, and may be needed
again on Friday though may be more limited in area

A weak frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary from low
pressure over the Carolinas to central parts of GA and AL. Our area
will remain in weak west or southwest low level flow each day with
hints of weak troughing in the flow over the region. An upper trough
will be in place over the area this period.

The combination of weak low level flow and diurnal heating will
allow sea breezes to push inland each day. Diurnal heating and sea
breeze convergence will yield scattered to numerous showers and
storms each afternoon and evening for this period. Best chances of
showers and storms will be over northeast FL on Thursday where the
best low level moisture will be. For Friday, there may be more
uniform coverage as moisture starts to expand in areal extent so
generally expected afternoon and evening scattered to numerous
showers and storms for the entire area. Guidance also suggests
isolated convection may be around well after midnight each night
which seems reasonable given the lingering instability at nighttime.

Model guidance shows the potential for cooler temperatures in the
mid levels which will enhance instability for the region. In
addition to more coverage of storms, this may lead to somewhat
better chances of isolated severe, pulse-type storms with
strong/damaging downburst winds. At this time, SPC has placed part
of our area in a marginal risk of severe storms for Thursday.

Temperatures will remain above average this period. In fact, record
highs may be set on Thursday and possibly on Friday. Heat advisories
will be going into effect Thursday and may be needed again on
Friday. But on Friday, more precip is likely and the extent of heat
advisory criteria looks more limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period (Saturday through Tuesday):

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm chances each afternoon and
evening

The pattern from Thursday and Friday lingers into Saturday with
general low level troughing from the Carolinas southwest into
central GA and AL. With more than enough moisture around the area,
likely to see afternoon and evening scattered to numerous showers and
storms for Saturday.

We start to see the upper trough over the area dig southward on
Sunday which will shove the low level trough and moisture further
south and east. This should place the higher chances of rain over
northeast FL area (generally scattered coverage) with more isolated
convection for southeast GA.

From Monday to Tuesday, there is not much appreciable change except
for the PWATs just near average. We see weak low level troughing
extending southwest to northeast over the southeast states and weak
sfc ridging over the FL peninsula. Unfortunately, moisture does not
appear to be high and may in fact be a little below normal. Given
this, coverage of convection looks isolated to scattered at this
time.

Temperatures will trend from near average to a little above average
this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue through NE FL into the early
evening hours, with activity dwindling around 02Z/03Z.  VFR
conditions will develop across the TAF sites, with lower vsbys for
inland sites of VQQ and possibly GNV due to lingering low-level
moisture from earlier showers. Showers and storms will again be
possible by 17Z/18Z with diurnal heating and inland moving sea
breezes.

&&

.MARINE...


Weak high pressure situated over the northern Gulf will maintain a
northwest to westerly wind flow across our local waters today. The
Atlantic sea breeze will push slowly inland this afternoon, shifting
surface winds to southeasterly this afternoon and then southerly
this evening, with speeds briefly surging around sunset before
diminishing overnight. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary
positioned just north of the Georgia waters will remain in place
during the next several days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may impact the near shore waters adjacent to northeast Florida this
afternoon and evening and again on Thursday afternoon and evening.
Coverage of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
will then increase from Friday through the upcoming weekend
throughout our local waters as southwesterly winds prevail, with
afternoon sea breezes developing each day.

Rip Currents: Offshore winds and low surf heights will prevail
during the morning hours at area beaches during the next several
days. However, the afternoon sea breeze will coincide with the
outgoing tide during the next few afternoons, with breezy onshore
winds likely creating a lower end moderate risk at all area beaches
through Friday. Low surf heights and later outgoing tide times this
weekend could lower the risk at area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patch High Dispersion This Afternoon
     HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA REST OF TODAY AND
- Thursday

A frontal zone will remain stalled over south and central Georgia
through Friday. Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours through Friday.
Hot weather is likely to continue into Friday with above average
temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 90s each day - around 100
over inland southeast GA. Min RH over inland southeast GA today and
Thursday may dip into the lower to middle 30s, however, winds will
remain light each day. Patchy high daytime dispersion expected this
afternoon over most of southeast GA south to near the I-10 corridor.
Generally lower daytime dispersion expected Thursday and Friday.

Fog Potential: Significant fog formation is not expected. Gusty and
erratic winds are expected in and near thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures are possible at some of our designated
climate sites during the next few days:

Wednesday, August 19th:
KJAX: 99/1900
KGNV: 100/1954
KAMG: 103/1995
KCRG: 97/2010

Thursday, August 20th:
KJAX: 101/1900
KGNV: 99/1900
KAMG: 104/1995
KCRG: 98/2016

Friday, August 21st:
KJAX: 101/1900
KGNV: 99/1983
KAMG: 100/1980
KCRG: 99/2016

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74 100  75  96 /   0  10  10  70
SSI  79  95  79  93 /  10  10   0  40
JAX  75  97  75  94 /  20  30  20  60
SGJ  77  95  76  93 /  30  30  20  50
GNV  75  95  74  93 /  30  50  20  60
OCF  76  95  75  93 /  20  60  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ021-023-
     024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
     232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
     633.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ153-154-
     162-163-165-166-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$