843
FXUS62 KJAX 171315
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
915 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 859 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Another day of afternoon and evening sea breeze convection
preceded by seasonally warm highs in the lower 90s with heat
index values in the 100-105 deg range. Early morning satellite
derived precipitable water (PWAT) shows lower values < 1.6 inches
across SE GA and edging northward from central FL under a 1000-700
mb ridge axis, while a ribbon of deeper PWAT of 1.8-2 inches
extended from coastal SE GA, across the JAX metro area and toward
GNV and Trenton. As daytime heating ensues, anticipate first sea
breeze and airmass t`storms to pop where this deeper moisture
resides with weak southerly steering flow of around 10 kts
enabling both west and east coast sea breezes to develop and move
inland. Boundary collisions will focus the higher chances of
afternoon and early evening storms in the 4 pm to 9 pm time-frame
across interior locations near Highway 301 and I-10 corridors.
Deeper convection will drift NNE into the early evening toward the
SE GA I-95 corridor while fading in coverage and intensity with
loss of diurnal instability and forcing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 745 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR conditions expected through 17z under SSW winds 5-8 kts. Winds
become SE at SSI, CRG and SGJ early afternoon as east coast sea
breeze develops and presses inland. VCTS conditions this afternoon
most favorable at GNV and VQQ where TEMPO groups were added (probabilities
50-60%) between 19-23z and adjusted VCTS for other terminals in FM
groups based on latest CAM guidance timing. Convection fades after
02z with dry conditions by 04z. MVFR fog potential increases at
VQQ and GNV after 07z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  72  93  73 /  30  20  20  10
SSI  91  76  90  77 /  30  10  20  10
JAX  94  74  94  74 /  50  20  40  10
SGJ  92  75  92  75 /  30  10  20  10
GNV  95  73  95  73 /  50  20  40  10
OCF  94  74  94  73 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$