807
FXUS62 KJAX 060816
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
416 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues this Week and into
  the Upcoming Weekend. A Coastal Flood Warning for Moderate Tidal
  Flood Impacts Continues within the St. Johns River Basin to the
  South of Downtown Jacksonville.

- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions through Tuesday, Returning
  Late this Week and Next Weekend. High Rip Current Risk, High
  Surf & Small Craft Advisories remain posted through Tuesday.

- Locally Heavy Rainfall & Localized Flood Risk Today, with
  Isolated Thunderstorms Possible.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Early morning surface analysis depicts persistent high pressure
(1027 millibars) stretching from the Mid-Atlantic coast to
offshore of coastal New England. This feature continues to wedge
down the southeastern seaboard, with coastal troughing remaining
positioned over our near shore Atlantic waters. Meanwhile, weak
low pressure centers were embedded along a remnant frontal
boundary near southeast FL and coastal Louisiana. Otherwise, a
cold front was pushing east southeastward from the western Great
Lakes and Upper Midwest through the Plains states. Aloft...ridging
centered along the Carolina coast continues to build over our
region, with the axis of this feature extending southward into the
southeast Gulf. Previously cutoff troughing along the northern
Gulf coast was shearing out as a longwave trough digs
southeastward from the Rockies and the northern Plains towards the
Upper Midwest.

Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery
indicates PWATs remain above early October climatology
throughout our region, with values mostly in the 1.75 - 2 inch
range. Values in excess of 2 inches prevail along the Interstate 4
corridor in central FL. Coastal troughing was currently only
generating isolated showers over the Atlantic coastal waters, with
land areas remaining dry during the predawn hours. Marine
stratocumulus continues to occasionally move onshore and across
the I-95 corridor in northeast FL, while lower stratus clouds were
developing beneath higher altitude cirroform clouds across inland
portions of southeast GA. Temperatures at 08Z ranged from around
70 across inland portions of southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley
to the upper 70s at coastal locations. Dewpoints ranged from the
mid 60s across inland portions of southeast GA and northern
portions of the Suwannee Valley to the mid 70s at coastal
locations.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Our stagnant weather pattern continues today, featuring brisk
easterly low level flow, compliments of a stubborn surface ridge
wedging down the southeastern seaboard, and persistent coastal
troughing over our near shore Atlantic waters. This trough and
strengthening low level convergence will likely create an
increasing coverage of showers and possibly a few embedded
thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters towards sunrise that will
quickly move onshore after sunrise, mainly along the northeast FL
coast. Deeper moisture currently in place along the I-4 corridor
in central FL will advect northward this morning, and we expect
numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms along the I-95
corridor by the mid to late morning hours. This activity will
shift inland across the U.S. Highway 301 and Interstate 75
corridors, with activity remaining more scattered in nature across
southeast GA, where PWAT values should remain below 2 inches
today. Embedded thunderstorms developing today will be capable of
producing torrential downpours given the tropical moisture that
will be overspreading north central and northeast FL, with brief
wind gusts of 30-40 mph also possible.

Morning stratus developing across inland southeast GA and portions
of the Suwannee Valley will lift by the mid-morning hours, with
peaks of sunshine later this morning boosting highs to the mid and
upper 80s for locations west of U.S.-301. Showers and
thunderstorms developing before noon and brisk onshore winds will
keep highs in the low to mid 80s for areas east of U.S.-301.

A few additional bands of showers will continue to advect onshore
early this evening along the Atlantic coastal counties as brisk
onshore flow persists. However, deeper convection developing today
is expected to shift west of the Suwannee and Alapaha Rivers
towards sunset, and a pocket of drier air, featuring PWATs of less
than 1.5 inches, will advect across most of southeast GA after
midnight. PWATs elsewhere will fall back to the 1.75 - 2 inch
range overnight, allowing for a decreasing coverage of showers by
the predawn hours on Tuesday. Another round of low stratus clouds
and possibly some fog may develop within the drier and more
subsident air mass that will be advecting across inland portions
of southeast GA during the predawn and early morning hours on
Tuesday. Lows tonight will again range from the upper 60 / around
70 for inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley to the mid 70s
at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Tuesday, drier air moving into the area will have precipitation
chances trend down as high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states
shifts towards the Atlantic ahead of an approaching cold front.
Continued easterly onshore flow and lingering moisture will bring
isolated to scattered showers push in from the local waters
towards coastal locations during the morning hours. By the
afternoon, showers will push towards inland locations, with a
stray storm possible.  Daytime highs will in the 80s with warmer
temps away from the coast. Overnight lows in the upper 60s over
inland SE GA and from the Suwannee Valley Region towards the
US-301 corridor of NE FL, lower 70s along the coast and north
central FL counties.

Wednesday, dry air continues to build over the area into midweek
as most of the area will be shower-free aside for chances of
isolated showers along Flagler, Putnam, St. Johns and southern
Marion counties during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, highs will
once again be in the 80s area-wide and a bit warmer than Tuesday
as cloud cover will be lower than Tuesday. The cold front will
begin to cross into northern SE GA by Wednesday Night, where some
showers may development during the overnight hours along the
Altamaha River Basin. Overnight lows similar to Tuesday Night.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

A cold front will shift south across the area through Thursday and
clear south of the area by Friday while an area of low pressure
will begin to lift north-northeast over the western Atlantic
waters. With this pattern, elevated northeast onshore flow will
likely develop with winds in the 25 to 30 mph range over the local
waters and coastal locations. As this will still coincide with the
Full Moon and higher tides, the onshore northeasterly flow will
likely continue the risk of coastal hazards of rip currents,
coastal flooding, dangerous maritime boating conditions, and rough
surf during the later half of the upcoming week into the weekend.
Otherwise, scattered chances of precipitation on Thursday into
Friday as showers push onshore with the northeast flow. By
Saturday, chances of precipitation begin to trend downward again
as guidance suggests the area of low pressure shifts east-
northeast towards the Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 208 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Periods of MVFR ceilings between 2,000 - 3,000 feet will remain
possible at the regional terminals through around 09Z. Lower
stratus ceilings may develop after 07Z at GNV and VQQ, but
confidence was too low to indicate IFR conditions in the TAFs at
this time. Showers are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity across our local Atlantic waters during the predawn
hours, with this activity then moving onshore and impacting the
SGJ terminals just before sunrise, with activity then progressing
westward across the Duval County terminals during the early
morning hours. Confidence in this scenario was high enough to
include TEMPO groups for brief wind gusts up to 25 knots and IFR
visibilities during heavier downpours. Embedded thunderstorms will
be possible within these heavier showers, but confidence was too
low to include vicinity thunderstorm coverage during the early
morning hours. Activity may extend northward to the SSI terminal,
but confidence in impacts was only high enough to include a PROB30
group after 10Z. Additional showers and thunderstorms are then
expected to develop during the morning and early afternoon hours
at the SGJ and Duval County terminals, and PROB30 groups for
thunderstorm impacts featuring wind gusts up to 30 knots and IFR
visibilities during heavier downpours were used into the afternoon
hours. Activity will progress westward towards the GNV terminal
after 16Z, where confidence was high enough to include vicinity
thunderstorm coverage and a PROB30 group through around 23Z.
Showers and thunderstorms should then shift west of the regional
terminals after 00Z, with VFR conditions expected to prevail on
Monday evening. Easterly surface winds will remain sustained
around 10 knots overnight at SGJ, while northeasterly winds remain
sustained at 5 knots or less. Easterly winds will then increase to
around 15 knots and gusty at SGJ before 14Z, with speeds elsewhere
increasing to 10-15 knots and gusty before 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

High pressure centered along the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue
to wedge down the southeastern seaboard, while coastal troughing
remains situated over our near shore waters through Tuesday.
Gusty easterly winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions featuring
rough, elevated seas will continue across our local waters
through at least tonight. Seas of 5-8 feet will prevail through
tonight near shore, while seas offshore of 7-9 feet are forecast.
Meanwhile, waves of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
will continue to traverse our area through Tuesday. High pressure
will then shift further offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast by
Tuesday night and Wednesday, allowing coastal troughing to weaken
over our local waters. Winds and seas will briefly diminish below
Caution levels near shore and to Caution levels for the offshore
waters adjacent to northeast FL. A cold front entering the
southeastern states on Wednesday will then shift slowly southward
across our local waters by Thursday and Thursday night. Strong
high pressure building over New England will wedge down the
southeastern seaboard late this week as low pressure potentially
develops over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to southeast
Florida. Northeasterly winds will quickly strengthen on Thursday,
with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to extend throughout
our local waters into next weekend as onshore winds potentially
gust to Gale Force.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 416 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Water levels have remained at minor flood thresholds during times
of high tide at most gauges along the Atlantic coast and the
Intracoastal Waterway (ICCW) in Duval, St. Johns, and Flagler
Counties since Sunday, as well as along the St. Johns River and
its tributaries in Duval County. We have thus lowered the Coastal
Flood Warning for these locations and have issued a Coastal Flood
Advisory through midweek, as minor flooding is expected to
continue during times of high tide, with water levels generally
reaching 1.5 to 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during
times of high tide. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect
within the St. Johns River basin to the south of downtown
Jacksonville, where water levels will continue to reach moderate
flood thresholds (generally around 2 feet above MHHW) during times
of high tide during the next several days.

As onshore winds gradually diminish towards midweek, astronomical
influences from this week`s full "Hunter`s" moon will continue to
increase, setting up a potentially significant coastal and tidal
flood event later this week and into the upcoming weekend as a
surge of strong northeasterly winds potentially overspreads our
area. Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories will likely be
expanded by Thursday and Friday all along the Atlantic coast and
throughout the St. Johns River basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  69  87  67 /  30  10  10   0
SSI  82  73  83  73 /  30  10  20   0
JAX  83  73  86  70 /  50  10  30   0
SGJ  83  76  85  73 /  60  20  30  10
GNV  86  73  90  68 /  60  20  30   0
OCF  85  73  88  70 /  60  20  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-
     138-225-233-325-333.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ132-137-
     633.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ138-233-333.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for GAZ166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ452-454-472-
     474.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470.

&&

$$