347
FXUS62 KJAX 241613
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1213 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extended Duration of Coastal and Marine Hazards. Coastal Flood
  Warning - Moderate to Potentially Major Tidal and Coastal
  Flooding around Times of High Tide Along the Atlantic Coast
  and Within the Intracoastal Waterway and the Entirety of the
  St. Johns River Basin. Wind Advisory for the Atlantic Coastal
  Counties this Afternoon & Tonight. Windy Conditions Continue
  at Coastal Locations on Sunday and Monday. Gale Warning for
  the Atlantic Waters Saturday Afternoon through Monday. High
  Surf Advisory & High Risk for Rip Currents through most of
  Next Week. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide
  through most of Next Week. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible for
  Coastal Northeast FL this Afternoon through this evening

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- Moderate Coastal/Tidal Flooding Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River

- Wind Advisory Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River gusts to 45 mph

- Locally heavy rainfall at times NE FL Atlantic Coast/I-95

The local pressure gradient continues to tighten this afternoon as
strong high pressure centered over New England wedges down the
eastern seaboard and an area of low pressure develops northeast of
the Bahamas. This will develop and sharpen coastal troughing over
the nearshore Atlantic waters bringing gusty north-northeasterly
winds. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this afternoon into evening
where gusts could reach up to 40-45 mph along the SE GA and NE FL
coasts. Breezy conditions linger overnight with the continued tight
pressure gradient. Waves of numerous coastal showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms will shift onshore through the evening hours
mainly for coastal NE FL and then into the St Johns River basin. A
few convergent bands may form along the northeast FL coast bringing
heavier downpours and localized flooding. If these bands coincide
with this evening`s high tide cycle, this could exacerbate the
already significant tidal flooding expected. Shower activity wanes
overnight and shifts to the NE FL coastal areas, mainly south of St.
Augustine. Overnight lows will range from the mid 50s in SE GA to
the upper 60s along the NE FL coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Peak on Sunday and Monday, with Coastal
Flood Warnings in Effect Along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal
Waterway and St. Johns River Basin. Moderate to Possibly Major Tidal
Flooding Will Continue Around Times of High Tide.

- Wind Advisory Conditions Likely to Continue at Coastal Locations.

- Gale Warnings Continue for the Atlantic Waters.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf
Advisories and a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents at All Area
Beaches. Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major
Beach Erosion.

- Locally Heavy Downpours Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night.

An initially tight pressure gradient situated over the forecast
area, between high pressure ridging to the north and a sharp coastal
trough to the east and southeast, will act to keep wind speeds of 25
to 30 mph on Sunday, with wind gusts potentially increasing up to 35
to 45 mph on Monday. Rain showers are expected to develop over the
region with the onshore flow, with a possibility for heavier
downpours capable of causing localized flooding, more likely over
northeast Florida with chances dropping by the end of the day on
Monday as drier air from out of the north advects southward. High
temperatures for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of
next week will be in the mid to upper 70s for inland areas and in
the lower to mid 70s for areas along the coast. Overnight low
temperatures will drop down into the 40s and 50s for southeast
Georgia and in the 60s for northeast Florida, with min temps as high
as the upper 60s and lower 70s along the shoreline.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Moderate Tidal Flooding
Likely  Around Times of High Tide on Tuesday Along the Atlantic
Coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and St. Johns River Basin. Minor to
Moderate Tidal Flooding May Continue for Much of the Upcoming Week
Within the St. Johns River Basin.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Persist, with a High Risk for
Deadly Rip Currents and Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area
Beaches throughout the Upcoming Week.

Northeasterly flow will persist through the week into Friday which,
along with coastal troughing and astronomical high tides, will
result in a continuance of coastal and marine impacts through the
week. Drier air over the region will reduce the amount of
precipitation for the beginning of the period with chances for
showers increasing later in the week as more moist air advects in
over the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to rise to be near
or slightly above the seasonal average by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
MVFR area-wide this afternoon after 18Z except for GNV terminal as
local Nor`Easter conditions develop, which will include increasing
NE winds to 15 to 22 knots with gusts to 25 to 32 knots at times,
highest as the Atlantic Coastal terminals of CRG/SGJ. MVFR CIGS will
predominate with periods of lower MVFR VSBYS in SHRA activity moving
onshore and mostly impacting CRG/SGJ with lesser chances at other
inland terminals and will need to include at least PROB30 for the
SHRA activity pushing onshore. TSRA chances still remain at 10
percent or less, so will likely keep out of the forecast for now.
Strong NE winds will continue through the TAF period at Atlantic
Coastal sites but will weaken at inland TAF sites of GNV/VQQ after
sunset tonight. MVFR CIGS after sunset this evening will become VFR
at SSI/JAX/CRG, but will continue at SGJ as shower activity slowly
shifts further southward and likely only impacts SGJ through Sunday
morning and the remainder of the TAF period. NE winds will slowly
increase again at inland terminals after 15Z back into the 15-20
knot range with gusts to 25 knots or so.

&&

.MARINE...


A combination of strong high pressure to the north, and an area of
low pressure to the southeast will result in a tight pressure
gradient over area waters this weekend into early next week.
Frequent gusts to gale force this afternoon and evening are expected
to continue into Monday. The high will weaken slowly to the north
next week but winds and waves will remain elevated above headline
levels the entire week.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories have been issued
through Monday for our entire Atlantic coastline, and surf will
likely peak from Sunday through Monday, when breakers reach the 8-10
foot range at the northeast FL beaches and 6-8 feet at the southeast
GA beaches. High surf conditions may continue for the rest of the
upcoming work week at the northeast FL beaches, and a high risk of
deadly rip currents will persist at all area beaches, where major
beach erosion is likely to occur during this extended duration
onshore wind and coastal flooding event.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Marginally High Dispersion Values Inland Sunday Afternoon
     ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
- During The Next Several Days

Showers will continue to move onshore along the northeast Florida
coast early today, followed by waves of showers throughout the rest
of the weekend and into Monday along the I-95 corridor in northeast
Florida, with activity occasionally extending to coastal southeast
Georgia and for inland locations east of U.S. Highway 301 in
northeast and north central Florida. Locally heavy downpours will be
possible this weekend along the I-95 corridor in northeast Florida.
Otherwise, dry weather will prevail across inland southeast Georgia
and the Suwannee Valley during the next several days. Gusty
northeasterly surface and transport winds today will create
marginally high daytime dispersion values across the Okefenokee
Swamp and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley this afternoon,
with good values forecast elsewhere. Gusty northeasterly surface and
transport winds will continue through Sunday night, creating
elevated nighttime dispersion values at most locations this weekend.
Northeasterly surface and transport winds will gradually diminish on
Monday and Tuesday across inland southeast Georgia and the northern
Suwannee Valley, while breezy to windy conditions continue
elsewhere, yielding fair to good daytime dispersion values. Elevated
nighttime dispersion values will continue at coastal locations for
much of next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures from predicted values continue to increase as the
highest astronomical tides of the year arrive. Strengthening north-
northeasterly winds this afternoon/evening will combine with the
increasingly high astronomical tides to yield water levels reaching
moderate flood levels during the evening high tide tonight, with
water levels generally climbing to 2-3 feet above MHHW, which has
prompted the issuance of Coastal Flood Warnings along the Atlantic
Coast and within the Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River
basin. Peak water levels will likely coincide with the upcoming full
moon on Sunday/Monday Oct 25-26, and confidence continues to grow
with respect to peak water levels of 2.5-3.5 feet above MHHW during
the Sunday and Monday high tide cycles. Northeast winds will only
gradually decrease through the week, but high astronomical tides
with the lunar perigee on October 28 will maintain minor to moderate
tidal flooding from Tuesday onward, with higher chances for moderate
flooding continuing within the St. Johns River Basin.

As the astronomical tide levels increase, the combination of the
building surf and water levels will lead to significant beach
erosion potential. This potential looks higher than the prior
northeast wind event around Oct 17-18, and the long duration of this
event could produce major erosion during each high tide cycle for
much of the upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  76  55  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  63  72  61  72 /  20  10  20   0
JAX  64  74  65  75 /  40  20  30  10
SGJ  68  76  68  76 /  90  70  80  40
GNV  64  78  66  79 /  30   0  30  10
OCF  65  80  66  81 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ038-125-132-
     137-325-633.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124-125-138-233-
     333-433-533.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     FLZ124-138-225-233-333.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for FLZ124-138-225-233-333.
GA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for GAZ154-166.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ154-166.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Monday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-470-472.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ454-
     474.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     AMZ454-474.

&&

$$