158
FXUS62 KJAX 110107
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
907 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- NorEaster Conditions Continue. Highest Water Levels of the Fall
  Season into the Weekend along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal
  Waterway, and St. Johns River Basin. Coastal Flood Warning for
  Moderate Tidal Flooding, Wind Advisories for the Coastal
  Counties through Saturday Night. Gale Warning for Atlantic
  Waters through Saturday Night. Destructive Beach Erosion at Area
  Beaches During Times of High Tide

- Heavy Downpours & Isolated TStorms along the I-95 Corridor.
  Localized Flooding Possible at Coastal Locations into tonight.

&&

.UPDATE...
(Rest of Tonight)
Issued at 855 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Some minor changes for the forecast to adjust POPS and winds a bit.
Have toned down the chance of thunder which remains a low probability.
Along the coast and waterways, winds are gusting still up to 25-35
mph and so with shower activity we could mix down some higher winds,
and thus will opt to keep the wind advisory in effect at this
time. There is still some support from the NAM model guidance of
gusts of 40 mph along the coastal areas into Saturday. But, we may
be able to pair it in the areal extent of advisory or at least
end the advisory sooner given the general trend of lower wind
gusts we have seen recently. In any case, locally heavy downpours
and gusty north- northeast winds will continue along the coastal
areas tonight into Saturday. No big changes were really needed to
the temps.

Especially during the high tides, we continue to see moderate
flooding levels along the coast and in the St Johns River Basin
and so Coastal Flood Warning remains on track. Generally saw 2.4
to 2.9 ft MHHW in the gauge reports today from along the coast to
inside the St Johns River.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Persistent northeasterly winds will continue to produce gusts near
40 mph along the coast and move showers onshore throughout the
day. Training heavy showers may produce localized flooding
concerns, especially along and east of I-95. Flooding rainfall
during times of high tide near the coast, St. Johns river basin,
and ICWW may exacerbate flooding at times. With thick cloud cover,
gusty winds, and rain, temperatures will peak in the lower to mid
70s today over most of the area, near 80 in Marion county.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Changes in the persistent pattern will finally start to take shape
throughout the weekend, mainly thanks to a broad area of low
pressure forming east of the Florida Peninsula Saturday and
pulling away towards the northeast through Sunday. As the surface
low moves away and the upper low follows just behind, this will
weaken the pressure gradient while also shifting flow towards a
drier north to northwesterly direction by Saturday Night and
Sunday.

Saturday and Saturday Night will remain a breezy one, especially
near the coast where a wind advisory remains in effect. Changes
will also be gradual enough where coastal hazards will hold strong
throughout Saturday and into Saturday Night as well, including
high rip current risk, high surf, and especially coastal/river
flooding as the wind direction will help to keep higher water
levels trapped throughout the St. Johns River. As mentioned above,
the flow will shift more along shore throughout the day which will
also dial back the onshore flow rain "machine" throughout the day,
and therefore rain chances will tend to subside throughout
Saturday and Saturday Night. Still more clouds than sun,
especially the further east you go with highs remaining below
average in the mid to upper 70s. Lows in the 60s will be common
Saturday Night.

Only a few isolated showers will be possible along the Atlantic
coast and parts of southeast GA Sunday as drier air starts to get
pulled in from the northwest both near the surface and aloft. Most
of the area will not see a drop of rain at all on Sunday with a
mix of sun and clouds expected. The pressure gradient will be
strong enough on the southwest side of the departing surface low
for a moderate breeze, especially near the coast, though expecting
conditions to subside enough for the Wind Advisory to be dropped.
Dangerous beach conditions will take some time to subside and
therefore conditions such as elevated rip current risk and rough
surf will likely linger into Sunday. Flow will also be strong
enough to keep some coastal flooding concerns going through Sunday
as well, especially over the mid/upper St. Johns River area where
the most water will be trapped. High temps will be similar to or
slightly higher than Saturday, ranging from the upper 70s to near
80 across northeast FL and mainly mid to upper 70s over GA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

High pressure ridging settles in from the north/northwest for the
start of the next work week, and doesn`t change significantly for
the majority of the long term period. The ridge filling in behind
departing low pressure into the Atlantic will essentially drop a
back door type of cool front across most of the Florida Peninsula
around Monday Night and Tuesday, reinforcing drier air across much
of the vertical column and very little rain chances outside of
perhaps a few coastal showers. This does look to set up more of a
north to northeasterly persistent wind event once again as the
surface high over the CEntral US slowly nudges eastward, though
definitely expected to be weaker than the ongoing event. Temps
will rebound after the weekend to near/slightly above average for
Monday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 735 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Widespread MVFR and areas of IFR expected this evening, with even
greater chances of IFR anticipated by Saturday morning as rain showers
and northeasterly winds continue. We expect there will be chances
of IFR vsby from the showers and mist well into the night for the
coastal TAFs. Through the day on Saturday, improvements in the
cigs and shower activity expected from west to east, with coastal
TAF sites the last to see improvement during the aftn. Sfc winds
north-northeast 8-14 kt gusting to about 25 kt tonight, and
increase a bit during daytime mixing on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Elevated northeast winds will continue over the local waters into
the upcoming weekend. Showers and embedded storms will increase in
coverage through Today as onshore flow continues. A Gale Warning
will be in effect through Saturday night as an area of low pressure
along the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to our region will gradually
strengthening as it moves northward towards the Carolinas this
weekend. Strong north-northeasterly winds and building, very rough
surf will create dangerous conditions throughout our local waters
through Today and into early Sunday. Northerly winds will gradually
subside late this weekend into early next week, with elevated seas
also likely slow to subside across our local waters.

Rip current: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory
conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend as
surf/breakers build into the 7-10 ft range Today and into the
weekend. Severe beach erosion is expected during times of high
tide through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Persistent Northeasterly wind event is expected to continue across
the area today, especially closer to the coast where the strongest
winds and highest chances for rain are expected. Dispersion will be
generally fair across the area despite the breezy conditions, mainly
due to mostly cloudy skies and limited mixing. Non-tropical low
pressure will form east of the area Saturday and shift northeastward
through the start of next week, both ushering in drier conditions as
well as shifting wind direction more towards the north to northwest.
More areas of good dispersions will be expected this weekend and
into early next week as conditions become increasingly drier. Min RH
values are expected to remain well above critical values however,
especially through the weekend. A drier pattern looks to remain in
place across the area heading into mid next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Several sites reached moderate flood stage this morning and
afternoon as a Coastal Flood Warning began for the Atlantic
coast, ICWW, and St. Johns river basin. This Warning is in effect
through at least Saturday night, and may be extended depending on
trends. During times around high tide, flooding values around 3 ft
MHHW for NE FL/SE GA beachfront locations (highest since
Hurricane Nicole in November 2022) and into the 2.0 to 2.5 ft MHHW
range on the St. Johns River Basin (highest since Hurricane
Milton from last October). Strong onshore winds, elevated tide
levels, and pounding surf, featuring breakers of 7-9 feet along
the northeast FL beaches, will bring the potential for destructive
beach erosion all along the Atlantic coast beginning Today and
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  73  60  75 /  30  30  30  20
SSI  65  73  63  75 /  80  50  30  20
JAX  66  75  62  78 /  80  40  30  20
SGJ  69  76  64  77 /  70  50  30  20
GNV  65  78  61  81 /  40  20  20  10
OCF  67  77  63  80 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124-125-138-233-
     325-333-433-533-633.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124-125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.

GA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
     474.

&&

$$