Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
839 FXUS62 KJAX 160448 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1248 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Weak low pressure center will continue to move westward across the Florida Panhandle through tonight, which will continue a moist south to southeast flow across NE FL/SE GA. This will allow for the East Coast sea breeze to push inland to the US 301 corridor, then interact with the lingering tropical moisture in place across NE FL where PWATs will remain above 2 inches and expect numerous to widespread showers and storms again this afternoon/evening, with heavy rainfall the main threat, although a few isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph will still be possible, along with some weak rotation possible in some of the more intense storms since area will remain on the East side of the departing low pressure system. Slightly lesser convection expect along the NE FL coastal areas and across SE GA, where scattered showers and storms are expected. Max temps should rebound into the lower 90s over inland areas and upper 80s/near 90F along the Atlantic Coast, and dew points temps into the mid/upper 70s will still push Heat indices to 100-105F, but still below heat advisory criteria. Convection will linger over inland areas along the I-75 corridor through the evening hours with heavy rainfall threat until midnight, then just a few isolated showers possible during the overnight hours in the humid airmass. Low temps in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80F along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure will build to the east Thursday, with ridge extending across forecast area. The ridge will move toward the southeast Friday, as a trough develops over the southeastern US. A flow from the south/southwest will provide moisture for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The region will be between high pressure to the southeast, and the trough across the southeastern US over the weekend into early next week. A moist flow from the southwest will keep chances for mainly diurnal precipitation in the forecast. An elongated area of low pressure may develop along the southeastern US Tuesday. The development of this low will increase precipitation chances. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 South to Southeast winds will continue at 5-10 knots this morning, and with the moist airmass will need to keep at least VCSH at the regional terminals with rainfall chances in the 10-20% range through the morning hours, along with TEMPO MVFR CIGS at times. Diurnal heating today will allow for scattered showers to develop for coastal terminals later this morning and will need to keep PROB30 groups at CRG/JAX for TSRA during the 16-20Z time frame, while much higher rainfall chances at VQQ/GNV as the East Coast sea breeze pushes slowly inland triggers numerous TSRA and expect to need TEMPO groups from the 18-22Z range at VQQ and 20-24Z range for GNV. Convection will fade at coastal TAF sites towards the end of the TAF period, but will continue to be possible at GNV until the 04-06Z time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A broad area of low pressure will continue to track westward across the Florida Panhandle today and tonight with south to southeast winds continuing at Caution levels. Atlantic high pressure will extend across the southeast states through Thursday. The high will shift south and extend across south Florida late Friday into the weekend as a surface front lingers across Georgia. Rip Currents: A solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Thursday as gusty South to Southeast winds will keep surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 73 95 74 / 30 20 40 10 SSI 87 79 90 79 / 30 20 20 10 JAX 92 76 94 76 / 40 30 50 10 SGJ 90 76 91 76 / 50 20 60 10 GNV 92 73 94 74 / 70 50 70 10 OCF 91 73 92 75 / 80 60 80 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$