353
FXUS62 KJAX 070040
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
840 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Near Record High Temperatures Thursday

- Red Flag Warning for Locations East of U.S.-301 on Thurs
  Afternoon & Evening. Gusty Southwesterly Winds, Critically
  Low Humidity & Ongoing Drought Conditions

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms on Thursday Afternoon
  & Evening. Main Impact Area: Locations Along and North of the
  I-10 Corridor. Main Hazards: Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph,
  Frequent Lightning Strikes & Isolated Tornadoes

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms from Friday Afternoon through
  Monday

&&

.UPDATE...
Made some adjustments to the current weather parameters, and
included areas of smoke that is from the South Canal Fire in
Lafayette county. Ash fall was reported in the Lake City area
from this fire. No significant change was made to the patchy fog
for the western zones, but may be a bit overdone given the winds
above the surface will be a little breezy for fog formation.
May be more stratus than fog. For Thursday, after adjusting for
winds, wind gusts, and RH, made an upgrade to the fire weather
watch for Thursday given sufficient confidence on meeting
criteria in some areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Very Warm Temperatures This afternoon

- Fire Danger remains high in the breezy southerly flow

Rest of this afternoon: Mostly sunny and dry with above normal temps
pushing into the lower 90s inland and 80s along the Atlantic
beaches. Breezy SW flow around 15G20-25 mph will become SE along the
Atlantic Coast as the sea breeze pushes into the I-95/US-17
corridors. These above normal temps and breezy winds this afternoon
and evening will keep fire danger at high levels.

Tonight: High pressure ridge axis will get shunted southward ahead
of approaching frontal boundary across the SE US states. This will
lead to a slow increase in high clouds along with light SW winds at
5-10 mph which will keep Min temps elevated, only falling into the
mid/upper 60s inland and around 70F along the Atlantic Coast. Some
patchy fog will be possible along the I-75 corridor/Suwannee Valley
during the overnight hours in the more moist flow off the NE Gulf.
Across far inland SE GA...some pre-frontal showers and/or isolated
storm activity may push into local areas to the NW of Waycross
towards sunrise, but confidence/timing in this occurrence still
remains on the low to moderate side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

-Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday, with
greatest chance north of a line from Gainesville to St Augustine


A cold front will move southeast across SE GA Thursday. Showers and
thunderstorms and are expected to develop along and ahead of the
boundary. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. The
storm chances will decrease Thursday evening, as the front moves
into NE FL, as better energy is north near the surface low.

Ahead of the front, temperatures will be well above average, with
highs over NE FL in the lower to mid 90s. North of the front highs
in the 80s will be more common Thursday.

The front will move into central FL Thursday night as high pressure
builds to the north. This front will waver north around the FL/GA
line Friday and Friday night, providing a focus for additional
convection. Temperatures Thursday night through Friday night will
vary widely from north to south due to the location of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Unsettled weather pattern with rounds of showers and thunderstorms
over the weekend into early next week

The stalled front will linger near the FL/GA line over the weekend,
continuing to be a focus for showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front will move southeast across the area early in
the week. High pressure will build behind this front, bringing more
settled weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures will trend a little below normal following the front
Tuesday, otherwise above seasonal readings are expected this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
VFR prevails into Thursday with only a few cumulus and high clouds
through about 17z-18z Thursday. There could be some low stratus near
GNV between 09z-13z Thursday that will probably show in TAF
with a scattered deck of about 500 ft. After 18z Thursday, pre-
frontal convection is anticipated, first affecting SSI near 19z
and then JAX metro TAFs thereafter. Likely to have PROB30 or
TEMPO group for SSI and JAX for Thursday afternoon and may
eventually have a VCSH or VCTS for rest of the TAFs. For sfc
winds, south- southeast 8-12 kt for SSI, CRG, JAX, SGJ, and VQQ
through 05z-06z tonight and become southwest 5 kt or so through
12z. Southwest winds will pick up to 12-16G25kt after 13z
Thursday. For GNV, southwest to west winds near 10 kt until 04z
Thursday, then become light, and picks up to 12-16G25kt after
13z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will enter the southeastern states tonight and expect
southerly winds with speeds to Caution levels through tonight.
Breezy southwesterly winds expected across our local waters through
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible from late
Thursday afternoon through early Thursday evening ahead of this
front, with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms possible, mainly
across the Georgia waters. This front will slow its forward progress
on Friday morning and will then stall by Friday evening across the
northeast Florida waters. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible from Friday afternoon through the
weekend, with another round of strong to severe thunderstorms
possible on Sunday afternoon and evening, well in advance of another
cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. This front
will sweep southeastward across our local waters on Monday.

Rip Currents:

Southeast winds will become breezy this afternoon, with these winds
combining with a slowly fading easterly ocean swell to create a
lower end moderate risk at all area beaches. Breezy southwesterly
winds will yield a low risk at area beaches on Thursday. Winds will
shift to northeasterly on Friday, likely resulting in a moderate
risk at area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Red Flag Warning for parts of northeast FL Thursday
- Areas Of High Dispersions Thursday
- Patchy High Dispersions Sunday, Monday And Tuesday

A cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday to northern portions of the area. Well ahead of the front,
hot and dry conditions are expected for portions of northeast and
north central Florida with breezy winds and low relative humidity
down as low as 27 percent. Breezy transport winds and high mixing
heights will lead to high dispersions as well on Thursday.

This front will then stall, providing continued showers and
thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Another cold front will
move through early next week, bringing another round of showers and
storms. High pressure will build toward the middle of next week
ushering in a period of drier weather.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog is possible
late tonight mainly across the I-75 corridor.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for:

Wed, May 6:
JAX: 96/2012
CRG: 96/2012
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 95/2012

Thu, May 7:
JAX: 94/1977
CRG: 94/1977
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 93/1962

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  84  62  79 /  10  90  10  20
SSI  70  90  68  76 /  10  40  20  20
JAX  68  95  70  84 /   0  30  20  20
SGJ  69  97  72  84 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  66  93  72  91 /   0   0  20  30
OCF  66  91  72  91 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ024-038-
     124-125-132-137-138-140-225-232-233-237-325-333-425-433-
     533-633.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$