148
FXUS62 KJAX 051906 CCA
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
159 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Localized Dense Fog Friday AM. Visibility near 1/4 mile or
  less possible

- Isolated Thunderstorms this Afternoon between I-75 and US-301.
  Additional Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorm Potential Friday

- Minor Tidal Flooding within Portions of the St. Johns River Basin

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through the Weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible this Afternoon and Evening, Mainly
for Locations West of I-95

- Locally Dense Fog Possible Towards Sunrise Friday morning mainly
inland areas

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Within Portions of the St. Johns
River Basin.

Warm, moist, and fairly unstable conditions exist ahead of an
approaching cold front this afternoon. The front is located from
northeast GA, then southwest to the far western FL panhandle and
into the Gulf. Low level convergence and the instability are helping
to generate scattered showers this afternoon as of 2 PM, with MLCAPE
values upwards of 1400-1600 J/kg and PWAT of near 1.75 inches.
This should be enough for isolated thunderstorm generation this
afternoon, with the best chances west of I-95 and over northeast
FL. This is supported by the RRFS guidance. Not much forcing
aloft so this is mainly diurnally driven convection. Latest runs
of some of the guidance did not do a credible job with the
current radar presentation so we needed to make some upward
adjustments in the POPs, which was carried over into the tonight
period. Overall, there should be a waning of convection this
evening through midnight, but there probably will be a lingering
shower or two after midnight. In addition, as winds diminish
tonight, there is a good chance of patchy to areas of fog, some
of which may be dense at 1/4 mile across the I-75 corridor and
into parts of inland southeast GA.

Max temps remain warm in the lower to mid 80s, and lows tonight
muggy ahead of the front in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Dense Fog Possible Friday Morning

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible Friday Afternoon

A cold front will begin to push through on Friday, clearing south of
the area by Friday Night. Southwesterly winds ahead of the the front
will veer to northwesterly behind the front. Some showers are
expected to develop ahead of the front as it pushes through the
area, mainly across SE GA and towards coastal locations by the
evening hours. Northwesterly-northerly winds will bring cool and
dry conditions across the area behind the frontal passage as
high pressure builds over the area.

Daytime highs will be in the lower to mid 80s Friday afternoon.
Behind the front, temperatures will be cooler behind the front
on Saturday with daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
with cooler temperatures across SE GA.

Overnight Lows on Friday night will be in the mid 50s across SE
GA and in the mid 60s across NE FL. By Saturday Night, cooler
air continue to filter into the area as much of the area will
have lows in the 50s, while lower 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected this Weekend and into Next
Week.

Dry conditions persist through into next week as high pressure
builds over the area. The next chance of showers look to be around
midweek with isolated chances of showers across north central FL
during the Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning time frame.

Below normal temperatures will be across the area behind the front.
Daytime Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s on Saturday will cool
into the lower 70s over the weekend and into next week. Overnight
Lows in the lower 50s across the area on Saturday will dip to
the mid 40s by Monday for SE GA and to the lower 50s across NE
FL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Ahead of a slowly approaching cold front from the the northwest,
warm, humid and modestly unstable conditions exist this afternoon.
Expect to continue to see scattered cumulus with about a 30-40
chance of showers and potentially a few thunderstorms. Overall, best
chances of convection will be around VQQ, GNV, and near JAX. Have
placed in PROB30 groups this afternoon for the showers. Less
activity is expected along the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes
inland this afternoon. Due to the lingering showers and cloud
cover during most of the night, fog formation will be limited.
However, if skies clear there could be a window from around
08-13z where low stratus and fog may quickly form. Some lingering
low-end VFR clouds expected by 14z-15z Friday as the front
continues to move toward the region.

&&

.MARINE...

An advancing cold front entering the southeastern states will slow
its forward speed, with prevailing winds south today and then
southwest on Friday. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
may impact the waters on Friday afternoon and evening ahead of this
approaching front, which will cross our local waters before sunrise
on Saturday. Winds will shift to northwest with increasing speeds
after midnight on Friday night, followed by winds shifting to north
and then northeast in the wake of this frontal passage on Saturday
afternoon and evening. High pressure will gradually build into the
southeastern states Sunday through early Monday, creating breezy
northeast winds and gradually building seas across our local waters.
Winds will weaken by Monday afternoon into Tuesday as high pressure
settles over the area.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Onshore winds and lingering seas/surf today will create high-end
moderate risk. Flow shifts to offshore direction by Friday. However,
a lingering easterly ocean swell will still yield a moderate risk at
all area beaches Friday through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Low Dispersions Across Northeast Fl This Afternoon

Winds will shift southwesterly through Friday ahead of slow-moving
and mostly dry cold front, which will push across Friday night,
ushering in a drier and cooler airmass over the weekend and into
early next week. Critically low humidity is not expected behind the
front but a multi-day period of northerly light surface and
transport winds will develop.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Areas to widespread fog
will be possible during the overnight hours Tonight into Friday
Morning across the area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels within most of the St. Johns River basin continue to
gradually decline with each successive high tide cycle, with gauges
now reporting peak levels mostly in the action stage (below minor
flooding) from around Racy Point northward.

Flood Advisory continues in portions of the river south of Racy
Point where tides continue to reach 1.4 to 1.8 feet above normally
dry ground during times of high tide (minor flooding). Recent heavy
rainfall over central FL may allow elevated water levels to linger
for locations along the St. Johns River and its tributaries near
Lake George and Crescent Lake during the next several days as the
floodwater drains northward.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We are near record highs at GNV, CRG, and JAX today and Friday,
generally within about 2-3 degrees of the record. We are also
near the record high minimum today at a couple of climate
sites. New records / ties are possible.

Record High Temperatures:

November 5th:
KJAX: 87/2003
KCRG: 86/2003

November 6th:
KJAX: 88/2018
KCRG: 87/2018

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 5th:
KJAX: 72/2015
KGNV: 70/2015

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  81  55  76 /  20  30   0   0
SSI  67  81  60  75 /  10  40  30   0
JAX  67  85  61  79 /  10  20  30   0
SGJ  67  83  64  77 /  10  20  40   0
GNV  68  84  63  80 /  20  10  10   0
OCF  67  85  65  81 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for FLZ038-137.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$