772
FXUS62 KJAX 050625
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
225 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues Today at the Northeast FL
  Beaches.

- Unseasonably Dry Weather Continues through Monday with a
  Gradual Warming Trend.

- Breezy Onshore Winds Redevelop on Tuesday and Wednesday,
  Increasing the Threat for Rip Currents at Area Beaches.

- Gradually Increasing Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms
  from Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier Than Normal Conditions Continue.

- Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents At Area Beaches.

Dry and a little bit warmer conditions expected today with a
slightly lighter east to southeasterly flow around 10-15 mph.
This occurs as a result of surface high pressure drifting
increasingly east of the region throughout the day and into
tonight, while mid/upper level ridging and subsidence increases.
Subsidence and PWATs remaining below 1 inch will continue to
curtail any rain chances, with only some scattered diurnal
cumulus expected to develop in addition to some high clouds
bleeding over from the dirty ridge aloft. High temps will run
mostly in the mid to upper 80s, with a few spots in the low 90s
possible towards the Suwannee River Valley area. Some high
clouds look to stick around tonight which brings some
uncertainty regarding radiational cooling despite light to near
calm winds, though still opted to go a bit below most guidance
given the drier than usual conditions continuing. Some patchy
fog will also be possible inland, albeit chances are only in the
5-10% range. Expecting mainly low to mid 60s inland, and mid
60s to low 70s for the St. Johns River Basin and coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Patchy Fog Possible Early on Saturday and Sunday Mornings at
  Inland Locations.

- Unseasonably Dry Conditions with Inland Temperatures Warming
  to the Low and Mid 90s this Weekend.

Deep-layered ridging will remain in control of our weather
pattern as a reinforcing trough and cold front progress east-
southeastward from the Great Lakes on Saturday across New
England on Sunday. Surface ridging will remain centered near
Bermuda, with its axis extending across our area. Breezy onshore
winds will develop at coastal locations on Saturday and Sunday
afternoons following the passage of the Atlantic sea breeze,
keeping highs at area beaches in the mid to upper 80s.
Interludes of cirrus spilling over the deep- layered ridge axis
into our area are expected, with plenty of sunshine and an
unseasonably dry, subsident air mass resulting in highs climbing
to the lower 90s at inland locations on Saturday, warming to
the mid 90s on Sunday. Dewpoints crashing to the 55-60 range at
inland locations each afternoon will yield heat index values
below 100 degrees. Fair skies and decoupling winds on Saturday
night will allow lows to fall to the mid to upper 60s at most
inland locations, with a light onshore breeze keeping coastal
lows in the lower 70s. Patchy radiation fog will be possible
early on Saturday and Sunday mornings at inland locations, with
any fog that manages to develop expected to dissipate shortly
after sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Unseasonably Dry Weather Continues on Monday.

- Breezy Onshore Winds Redevelop on Tuesday and Wednesday,
Increasing the Threat for Rip Currents at Area Beaches.

- Gradually Increasing Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms
  from Tuesday through Thursday.

Deep-layered ridging in place over our area on Sunday will
retrograde westward by Monday, allowing a "backdoor" cold front
to shift southward across our region on Tuesday afternoon and
evening. A dry and subsident air mass will persist on Monday,
allowing afternoon dewpoints to crash to the 60-65 range during
the afternoon hours. Highs will again soar to the mid 90s on
Monday afternoon at most inland locations, with breezy onshore
winds developing at coastal locations behind the passage of the
Atlantic sea breeze boundary early on Monday afternoon that will
keep highs in the upper 80s. PWAT values will begin to climb on
Monday night and especially Tuesday ahead of the approaching
"backdoor" cold front. Gradual moistening should keep lows in
the 70-75 range on Monday night, and isolated to perhaps widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and
evening as the boundary passes through our area from north to
south. Meanwhile, high pressure building along the Mid-Atlantic
coast in the wake of this cold front will wedge down the
southeastern seaboard on Tuesday afternoon, tightening our local
pressure gradient and creating breezy east-northeasterly winds
along the I-95 corridor. These breezy onshore winds will cool
afternoon highs to the mid and upper 80s at coastal locations,
with lower 90s forecast for locations west of the I-95 corridor.
An onshore breeze could advect a few coastal showers onshore on
Tuesday night, where lows will only fall to the mid and upper
70s. Decoupling winds inland should yield lows closer to 70.

Deep-layered ridging will continue to slowly retrograde westward
to  a position over Texas by the middle portion of next week.
This evolution of the weather pattern should allow deeper
moisture over the southeast Gulf to gradually increase northward
across the FL peninsula on Wednesday, with PWATs likely
climbing above 2 inches by Thursday across our area. Otherwise,
high pressure situated along the Mid-Atlantic coast early on
Wednesday will slowly weaken as it shifts southeastward to a
position off the southeastern seaboard by late next week. Breezy
easterly winds will develop along the I-95 corridor on
Wednesday afternoon following the passage of the inland moving
Atlantic sea breeze boundary, again keeping coastal highs in the
mid to upper 80s at coastal locations, with lower 90s inland.
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast on
Wednesday, with the potential for a few coastal showers moving
onshore on Wednesday night and Thursday morning along the I-95
corridor and points eastward as low level flow veers slightly to
southeasterly. Coverage should increase to scattered on
Thursday afternoon and evening, with highs ranging from the
upper 80s at coastal locations to the lower 90s inland. Lows on
Wednesday and Thursday nights will remain in the mid 70s at
coastal locations and closer to 70 well inland.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for this period. Very low
chance for reduced vsbys inland with patchy BR/FG towards
sunrise this morning, though chances remain too low to include
in the forecast. Otherwise, the main operational impact will be
breezy onshore flow continuing this afternoon and evening at all
terminals, especially closest to the coast.

&&

.MARINE...

A modest onshore flow will continue today and through the
weekend, shifting increasingly towards the south each day as
high pressure starts to set up more east of the region.
Increased moisture with this flow will return chances for
showers and thunderstorms early to mid next week.

Rip Currents: High Risk will continue across northeast FL
beaches today where the most lingering effects of onshore flow
continue. Risk will be a "high end" moderate for southeast GA
beaches. Surf heights will drop towards the 3-4 foot range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Unseasonably Dry Weather Expected Through Monday

- High Daytime Dispersion Values Inland This Afternoon

An unseasonably dry air mass will remain in place across our
area through early next week, limiting chances for rainfall.
Minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 30 percent
at inland locations each afternoon through Sunday, with values
only slowly recovering on Monday. Otherwise, breezy easterly
transport winds developing late this morning will combine with
elevated mixing heights this afternoon to create high daytime
dispersion values at inland locations, with good values expected
at coastal locations, where breezy surface winds will develop
this afternoon following the passage of the Atlantic sea breeze
boundary. Elevated mixing heights will continue this weekend
through Monday, but gradually decreasing transport winds will
yield generally good daytime dispersion values at inland
locations, with fair values at coastal locations, where breezy
onshore winds will develop each afternoon following the passage
of the Atlantic sea breeze boundary.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible
during the predawn and early morning hours through the weekend
at inland locations. Widespread dense fog is not anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  61  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  84  72  86  71 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  87  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  86  70  87  72 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  89  64  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  89  65  92  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$