109
FXUS62 KJAX 251207
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
807 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The region is between high pressure to the east, and a trough to the
north northwest Today. Between these two features a fairly light,
southwest low level flow is expected. With this flow pretty light,
the east coast sea breeze will be able to move inland this
afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate late this morning on
the Gulf coast sea breeze. This activity will then increase into the
afternoon as the Gulf sea breeze moves further inland during the
heat of the day. The east coast sea breeze will become active during
the early afternoon. The sea breezes should meet well inland between
I75 and I95, where an amplification in activity is expected to
develop. With the overall flow fairly light, this convection will
then largely diminish in place, or slowly drift east during the
evening with loss of diurnal heating.

Highs above normal this afternoon, coupled with humid air across
much of the area will result in heat indices in the advisory range.
The exception will be far inland SE GA, where the temperatures will
be warmest, but drier airmass will be in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday and Thursday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Drier air will linger over SE GA, with PWATs around 1.5-1.75"
limiting precipitation coverage to scattered, whereas NE FL will
have ample moisture (PWATs 2.0"+) moving in with the help of
southwest flow. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms will
develop Wednesday afternoon/evening as the Gulf sea breeze pushes
far inland. The east coast sea breeze will not make it far inland,
however it will provide slight relief to the heat along the coast.
Highs Wednesday will again be above normal, reaching near 10
degrees for portions of inland SE GA, with highs in the lower to
upper 90s elsewhere.

Temperatures will trend downward a tad on Thursday, but still
remain above normal as southwest flow and an approaching front
from the north helps numerous showers and thunderstorms develop
area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Temperatures will remain above normal during this period, with
daily highs in the lower to upper 90s. Similar setup expected each
day Saturday onward as winds shift from SW to S/SE, allowing both
sea breezes push inland and interact, higher precipitation chances
will remain over NE FL, with more scattered coverage daily in SE
GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions expected Today and Tonight. Scattered afternoon
TSRA expected with sea breezes after 20z, decreasing in coverage
after 00z. Better chance for this at inland TAF sites than coastal
sites...so have just VCTS during afternoon for KSSI and KSGJ, with
a TEMPO group for 20z-00z period for inland TAF sites and VCTS for
a few hours after 00z. Light SW winds expected during the morning,
shifting to the SE 5-10kts with sea breeze during the afternoon,
except remaining light SW through afternoon at KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 435 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A frontal boundary will stall over the southeastern states today,
with prevailing offshore winds this morning becoming onshore
towards noon over the near shore waters as the Atlantic sea breeze
pushes inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will possibly
develop over our local waters late this afternoon and early this
evening. Outside of thunderstorm activity, southerly winds will
briefly surge this evening before shifting to southwesterly while
diminishing overnight. Speeds should remain below Caution levels
during afternoon and evening wind surges, and seas of 2-4 feet
will prevail throughout our local waters during the next several
days.

Southwesterly winds will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday ahead
of another weakening frontal boundary that will stall and dissipate
to the northwest of our local waters by Friday, with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours. Prevailing winds will become southeasterly by
the weekend as the axis of Atlantic high pressure briefly lifts
northward, with another frontal boundary then expected to enter
the southeastern states early next week, which will shift
prevailing winds back to southwesterly.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds developing early this afternoon
will combine with a lingering east-southeasterly ocean swell to
create a lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches. Low
wave heights at the southeast GA beaches should keep the risk low
through Thursday, with a low risk also anticipated at the
northeast FL beaches on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 101  74  99  74 /  20  10  40  20
SSI  95  78  90  77 /  20  10  30  20
JAX  98  73  95  75 /  50  40  60  20
SGJ  93  76  92  76 /  60  40  60  20
GNV  96  74  94  74 /  70  70  70  20
OCF  95  75  93  75 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.

GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ136-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$