902
FXUS62 KJAX 031148
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
748 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Increasing Daily Thunderstorm and Heavy Downpour Coverage.
  Waves of Heavy Downpours May Increase the Threat for Localized
  Flooding this Weekend and into Next Week

- Moderate Rip Current Risk all Area Beaches through Monday

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Increase Next Week. Strong & Gusty
  Northeast Winds Arrive Monday Night. Gale Conditions Likely
  for the Atlantic Waters Tuesday through Wednesday. Deadly Rip
  Currents, Rough Surf & Substantial Beach Erosion Likely.
  Moderate Tidal Flooding Risk Tuesday through Thursday Along
  the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway & Tidal Tributaries
  of the St. Johns & St. Marys River Basins

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and into the evening; Highest coverage inland areas along
the Suwannee river and interior Southeast GA.

- Localized heavy downpours may lead to brief periods of flooding,
especially for inland areas.


Residual high clouds and light rain showers persist early this
morning as the deep tropical moisture tap remains intact amid
southerly flow. This morning`s moisture influx will "reload" the
atmosphere as upper ridging becomes centered over southern Florida.

Deep moisture, with precipitable 2-2.3", will fuel showers and
thunderstorms along the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes during the
early afternoon. Meanwhile, another embedded impulse will track
northeastward across the northern Gulf coast and toward the Suwannee
River valley and inland SE GA during the mid to late afternoon.
Convection and broader areas of rain that develop with the impulse
will likely interact with the sea breeze and the outflow boundaries
through the late afternoon and into the early evening. Like this
evening, the airmass should be worked over and coverage of showers
will dwindle through the evening.

While numerous showers are expected inland, the potential for
locally heavy rain remains a bit too spotty to warrant a Flood Watch
for this afternoon`s activity. Like yesterday, there is potential
for heavy downpours to train locally and lead to 2-4" of rain and
localized flooding. Highest concern for isolated flooding will be
across the Suwannee Valley and interior areas of southeast GA.
Slowing and veering mid level winds will also lead to more gradual
storm motion today, around 5-10 mph, and generally heading north-
northeast.

Blanketing cloud cover and potential showers through the morning and
afternoon along with showers will limit afternoon highs to the mid
80s. Another seasonably mild night in the low to mid 70s is expected
once again. Cloud cover will limit fog development but patchy light
fog may form, especially over soggy grounds in inland areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Above normal rain chances continue into next week. Localized heavy
  downpours and flooding possible.

A frontal boundary will shift south across the area on Sunday,
pushing towards southern locations by the overnight hours into
Monday. With elevated moisture aloft, PWATs from 2" to 2.5",
numerous to widespread showers is expected on Sunday as waves of
heavy downpours develop. The focus for most showers will likely be
for locations across SE GA due to the proximity of the frontal
boundary. As such, the Weather Prediction Center is highlighting a
majority of SE GA under a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (Level 2
of 4) and all of NE FL under a Marginal Risk. With the waves of
heavy downpours, there will be the threat of localized flooding with
the training showers and storms. A similar patter of widespread
showers and isolated storms is forecast as moisture levels remain
elevated on Monday.

With the passing showers and cloud cover over the area, daytime
highs in the upper 80s is forecast for much of the area on Sunday
with locations across north central FL possibly reaching into the
lower 90s. By Monday, the sinking cold front and continued showers
and cloud cover will bring cooler temperatures across the area with
upper 70s to mid 80s from SE GA and south towards the I-10 corridor
in NE FL, with mid to upper 80s across north central FL.

Similar pattern in overnight Lows with lower 70s area wide on Sunday
night, and then Monday night will bring mid to upper 60s across SE
GA towards the I-10 corridor and then lower 70s across north central
FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Strong northeast flow pattern through midweek, with potential for
Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding, Deadly Surf, and Gusty Coastal
Conditions.

- Potential for rounds of heavy rainfall, and a few strong to severe
thunderstorms can not be ruled out

A local nor`easter is expected to develop behind as an area of low
pressure develops along the stalled frontal boundary to the
northeast of the area. With a tight gradient between the low
pressure to the northeast of the area and high pressure over the
Great Lakes region,  strong winds are expected to develop over the
local waters and coastal locations of SE GA and NE FL. There could
be a need for Wind Advisories along coastal locations through
midweek. With the elevated northeasterly winds persisting for much of
the upcoming week, tidal flooding will also be of concern as the
astronomical tides begin increasing with the approaching New Moon,
with minor to possible low-end Moderate tidal flooding potentially
into next weekend. Dangerous surf conditions, Rip Currents, and
minor to moderate beach erosion will also be likely due to the
elevated winds. Periods of heavy downpours with any showers or
storms that develop during the period as moisture levels remain
elevated .

Temperatures will trend below average this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Light showers developing across SGJ and CRG this morning will lift
northward but are not expected to introduce flight restrictions.
Localized light fog at VQQ will lift in the next hour. MVFR ceilings
at SGJ will gradually lift by 15Z.

Unsettled weather will redevelop again this afternoon as the
Atlantic sea breeze develops. Embedded thunderstorms are possible
but are anticipated to be isolated in nature. Heavy downpours will
lead to occasional visibility restrictions to IFR or LIFR levels
through the afternoon. Highest TSRA chances will be at KGNV and
other terminals along the I-75 corridor this afternoon and early
evening. Residual showers may work back toward the Atlantic coast
after 00z this evening. Outside of shower and storm influence winds
will favor an easterly direction around 5-10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...


Southeasterly wind continues over the weekend with waves of showers
and thunderstorms moving from south to north. Outside of
thunderstorm activity, winds and seas are expected to remain below
Caution levels through at least Monday afternoon.

Deteriorating conditions are expected Tuesday as cold front enters
and stalls over the area waters. Following the front, a strong high
pressure building will wedge down the southeastern seaboard,
initiating a prolonged surge of strong northeasterly winds and high
seas across our local waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
likely by Tuesday, with the potential for wind gusts near Gale force
through Thursday. Northeasterly winds are expected to gradually
decrease through Friday, allowing seas to lower thereafter.

Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds and 2 to 3 foot breakers will
maintain a higher end moderate risk at all area beaches through
Monday. Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop on Tuesday
as northeasterly winds strengthen, with the likelihood for very
rough surf and deadly rip currents from Tuesday through the end of
next week, with breakers potentially building to 8-10 feet at the
northeast FL beaches and 6-8 feet at the southeast GA beaches by
midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

     AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
- Week

Waves of rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected over the
weekend and through next week, due to an inverted trough over the
Gulf, and its associated frontal boundary which will gradually sink
south across the area. Lower mixing heights across much of the area
will lead to poor Dispersions to develop through the weekend and
into next week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop just
to the northeast Tuesday, bringing elevated northeasterly winds to
the area, especially along coastal locations.

Fog Potential...Significant fog is not expected Tonight. Gusty and
erratic winds in and near thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall with
localized flooding possible each day this period.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  72  84  70 /  60  50  80  90
SSI  83  75  85  72 /  40  30  70  80
JAX  85  73  87  71 /  60  20  80  70
SGJ  85  76  87  73 /  40  20  70  60
GNV  85  72  88  72 /  60  50  70  60
OCF  87  74  90  73 /  60  70  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$