376
FXUS62 KJAX 111334
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
934 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Nor`easter Conditions through Sunday, Improving Monday. Coastal
  Flood Warning for Moderate Tidal Flooding continues through
  Tonight. Moderate Tidal Flooding to Continue within the St Johns
  River into Early Next Week. Minor Tidal Flooding for the
  Atlantic Coast Sunday. Wind Advisories for the Coastal Counties
  through 8 AM, then only NE FL Coast. Gale Warning for Atlantic
  Waters through Tonight, then Small Craft Advisory

- Conditions Sunday and Monday. Deadly Rip Currents and Rough
  Surf Continue through Sunday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

No major changes to the ongoing forecast with current marine and
coastal warnings and advisories on track. Did adjust rain chances
down based on drier NNW flow and very subsident airmass aloft with
a slower warm-up trend with temperatures still in the lower 60s
for many coastal locations.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

A local nor`easter is developing into a "true" nor`easter this
morning as a coastal surface low organizes off the central Florida
Atlantic coast. As the circulation establishes beneath a cutoff
upper low, it will begin to move northward along the Gulf Stream,
eventually becoming stationary off the coast of the Carolinas
while deepening. There is some uncertainty, given the upper
cutoff, on exactly how the low and its associated frontal features
will meander tonight. This continue overcast skies with some
mixed-in drizzle tonight. A narrowed diurnal temperature range is
expected with lows in the 60s, warming only about 10 degrees this
afternoon to produce high temperature readings in the mid to upper
70s.

STRONG WINDS:

The primary concern today will be the strong winds associated
with the deepening coastal low. Winds will shift to a
predominantly northerly direction today as the low begins to move
north, turning northwesterly tonight. Strong gusts are likely
through today and into the evening, with gusts around 3540 mph
expected along the beachfront and coastal areas. These stronger
winds will become more focused along the Northeast Florida
coastline as winds turn to the north.

A Wind Advisory remains in place through 8 AM for the entire
Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia coast. It then continues
only for the Northeast Florida coast through the rest of the day.
The pressure gradient will relax tonight, allowing for a
decreasing wind response.

COASTAL FLOODING AND RAINFALL:

Widespread coastal flooding is expected to reach Moderate Flood
Levels again this afternoon. Timing will be early this afternoon
along the Atlantic coast and during the late afternoon to early
evening within the St. Johns River basin.

Contributing to the flood threat, strong convergence along a
developing warm frontal zone will continue to direct bands of
light to moderate rain into the coastal areas through the rest of
the morning before shifting offshore. There could be localized
flood concerns, mainly around the times of high tide, due to the
combined effects of the moderate tidal flooding and these
prolonged bands of rainfall. Rainfall accumulations overall are
generally expected to be highest along the coast where up to an
inch could accumulate.

Winds are likely to turn offshore tonight, allowing tidal levels
along the Atlantic coast to subsequently decrease.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday night)

Pattern of rain and gusty winds will come to an end by Monday as
high pressure ridging and drier air builds in over the region from
out of the west, bringing gradually clearing skies and mild
winds. Scattered showers and gusty winds will affect southeast
Georgia and locations along the coast on Sunday, but will
gradually lessen over the course of the day as the area of low
pressure continues to move off to the northeast. High temperatures
for the end of the week and into the beginning of next week will
rise into the mid 70s over southeast Georgia and in the upper 70s
and lower 80s over northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures
will drop down into the upper 50s and lower 60s for inland areas
and in the mid 60s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)

Dry weather conditions, milder winds, and mostly clear skies will
continue over the course of next week as high pressure ridging and
dry air continues to dominate the weather pattern through Friday.
Temperatures for next week are expected to remain near the
seasonal average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 712 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Prevailing IFR to MVFR ceilings will persist through the morning
with some lifting of clouds bases from west to east into the
afternoon. GNV has the best chance of breaking out to periodic
VFR at this time afternoon while coastal terminals including SSI,
CRG and SGJ remain socked in under at least MVFR conditions.
Blustery NNE winds to slightly NNW prevailing today with gusts of
25-35 kts at times at the coast in brief passing showers, with
less rainfall coverage today compared to yesterday. Farther
inland, gusts of 20-25 kts expected. After sunset this evening,
winds back more NNW to NW after 06z. Guidance showing shower
potential near SSI overnight with dry conditions at other
terminals with lowering stratus to MVFR to IFR inland through 12z
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

Nor`easter conditions prevail today as coastal low to the south
lifts north-northeastwardward, trailing along the Gulf Stream. As it
deepens, northerly winds will strengthen with Gale force winds and
gusts reaching up to 45 knots and combined seas around 8 to 12 feet
this afternoon. Gale Warnings remain in effect through tonight with
winds decreasing to Small Craft Advisory levels on Sunday. Winds
will relax behind as high pressure builds from the north behind a
cold front trailing the coastal low pressure system.

Bands of heavy rain with isolated thunderstorms continues to be a
possibility through this afternoon along a developing warm front
with decreasing thunderstorm chances tonight and through Sunday.
Elevated seas are likely to linger offshore for through Monday. A
dry cold front passage on Wednesday will bring another period of
breezy northeasterly winds and elevated seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for the entire coast
and the St. Johns River basin through this evening due to ongoing
moderate tidal flooding.

For the St. Johns River Basin and Intracoastal Waterway: Strong
northerly winds will continue to trap water within the St. Johns
River from Jacksonville southward to Lake George. Consequently, it
will take several tidal cycles for water levels to fall below
Moderate/Minor Flood stages (1.52.5 ft MHHW). The Coastal Flood
Warning will remain in effect for the river basin overnight and
through Sunday due to these trapped tides.

For the Atlantic Coast: The Atlantic coast will likely experience
one more cycle of Moderate tidal flooding this afternoon.
Afterward, high tides are expected to decrease to Minor Flood
Levels through Sunday. Moderate bands of rain this morning may
slightly exacerbate tidal flooding this afternoon, especially
along the Northeast Florida coast. Overnight and through Sunday,
the warning for the Atlantic coast will be downgraded to a Coastal
Flood Advisory.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  60  76  58 /  20  20  20  10
SSI  74  62  76  63 /  40  20  20  10
JAX  74  62  78  62 /  30  20  20  10
SGJ  75  62  78  64 /  40  30  20  10
GNV  78  60  81  61 /  20  10  10   0
OCF  77  62  81  61 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038-
     124-125-138-225-233-333.

     Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038-124-125-
     138-233-325-333-433-533-633.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-225-233-333.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ132-137-325-
     633.

GA...Coastal Flood Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-
     166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Sunday for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
     474.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 5 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ452-454-470-472-474.

&&

$$