334
FXUS62 KJAX 170000
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerously HOT Weather Continues this Week. Heat
  Advisory/Extreme Heat Warning Monday. Heat Advisories &
  Extreme Heat Warnings Possible Tuesday through Thursday

- A Few Strong Thunderstorms Possible this Evening. Main Impact
  Area: The Interstate 95 Corridor.

- Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening TStorms from Mon
  Sat. Strong to Isolated Severe Storms are Possible Each Day,
  Mainly Along the I-95

&&

.UPDATE...

Most of today`s convective coverage focused along a surface trough
north of the Altamaha River. Once convection became established it
developed a well-defined outflow boundary that pushed south-
southeastward and interacted with a stalled Atlantic sea breeze
through the late afternoon and early evening hours.

Currently, ongoing convection continues along the boundary as it
pushes into the the I-10 corridor. With only isolated showers,
there`s still ample instability available for additional scattered
convection over the next few hours. The main focus for activity will
be between outflow collisions and the remnant convergence zone
offered up by the Atlantic sea breeze, generally along the I-95
corridor in NE FL. While strong thunderstorms, capable of gusty
winds, are fairly unlikely, there`s still potential for heavy
downpours that could lead to pockets of localized flooding
especially in urban centers.

Outside of convection, the miserably hot temperatures are beginning
to cool some and the heat advisory that was in effect has been
allowed to expire on time. Unfortunately, there isn`t much relief in
terms of the heat through at least Thursday. That said, another Heat
Advisory is in effect Monday with an Extreme Heat Warning for
coastal SE GA as heat index will reach the 112-115 degree range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Monday & Tuesday
Afternoon/Evening, Especially for Northeast FL

- Heat Index Values Near or Above Heat Advisory Each Day

A frontal boundary from out of the northwest will settle in over
southeast Georgia by Monday resulting in more inhibited convection
over southeast Georgia and with higher chances for storms occurring
ahead of the boundary over northeast Florida. Prevailing flow will
shift to become more out of the west and northwest with moist air
maintaining over northeast Florida south of the frontal boundary and
north of high pressure ridging crossing over the southern Florida
peninsula, with PWAT values measuring upwards of over 2.5 inches.
High temperatures for the beginning of next week will rise into the
upper 90s and potentially reaching upwards to 100 over portions of
southeast Georgia. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into
the mid to upper 70s over inland areas and in the upper 70s and
lower 80s for coastal areas and along the St Johns River. Heat index
values during this period will reach upwards of 106 up to over
113, resulting in heat advisory and possible extreme heat
conditions through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Hazardous Heat Continues Next Week

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening,
some which could become strong

Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the northwest by
the end of the week as the stalled frontal boundary over southeast
Georgia, which had been acting to inhibit convection for portions of
the northern forecast area through much of the week,  begins to
disperses and move off to the northeast and results in a more
uniform pattern of diurnal convection going into the weekend. High
temperatures will continue to be in the upper 90s through next week
with heat index values likely to reach heat advisory levels through
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...

Ongoing convective activity will push outflow across the
Jacksonville Metro terminals and south along I-95 through 02z, which
may lead to isolated or vicinity TSRA at NE FL terminals along the
coast. Activity will diminish late this evening and fade completely
by midnight. Aside from slightly reduced visibility during the
predawn hours skies will clear overnight. Westerly steering winds
will delay the inland movement of the Atlantic sea breeze on Monday.
Latest guidance does favor higher convective potential along and
south of I-10 Monday afternoon and evening. Highest confidence of
TSRA impacts will be at KGNV and KSGJ (40-50%), so introduced PROB30
groups for the late afternoon hours, 20z onward.

&&

.MARINE...

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward
across the Florida peninsula, creating a prevailing westerly wind
pattern across our local waters. A frontal boundary will then push
into the southeastern states by Monday afternoon, with this feature
stalling just north of the Georgia waters by midweek. Chances for
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase across our
local waters during the work week. Southwest to westerly winds will
continue to prevail, with brief evening surges of wind speeds to
Caution levels through the work week.

Rip Currents: A lower end moderate risk this afternoon at area
beaches as the sea breeze creates an onshore flow that will combine
with the outgoing tide and a persistent long period southeasterly
ocean swell. Prevailing offshore winds will strengthen on Monday and
Tuesday, creating a low risk that will likely continue through the
end of the work week at all area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Heat Advisory In Effect Today
- Patchy High Dispersions Inland Southeast Ga Monday And Tuesday

Hot conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the
weekend and into at least the start of next week, with Heat
Advisories likely and possibly even Extreme Heat Warnings possible
each day for most or all of the region. This will come with a flow
direction generally out of the southwest to west through the next
several days except for a wind shift with the sea breeze generally
east of the I-95 corridor. A frontal boundary dropping southward
tonight and Monday will return more "usual" chances for showers and
storms for all today, then mainly over northeast Florida for early
to mid week as some drier air moves into southeast GA behind the
front. Better mixing and transport winds will result in good to
patchy high dispersions over inland GA, with fair to good
dispersions elsewhere. The front will linger just north of the
region by late week, with shower and storm chances generally
increasing as well.

Fog Potential: Significant fog developments are not expected,
however late-night or early-morning fog developments are expected to
be shallow and patchy, mainly occurring over areas that have
received locally heavy rainfall. Gusty and erratic winds are often
possible within and nearby any stronger showers or storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures are possible at some of our designated
climate sites during the next several days:

Monday, August 17:
KJAX: 99/1954
KGNV: 97/1954
KAMG: 104/1995
KCRG: 97/2005

Tuesday, August 18:
KJAX: 98/1954
KGNV: 98/1954
KAMG: 105/1995
KCRG: 96/2023

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  97  78  98 /  20  10   0  10
SSI  78  97  80  98 /  30  20  10  20
JAX  77  95  77  96 /  30  40  20  30
SGJ  77  95  78  96 /  30  50  20  40
GNV  76  94  77  95 /  20  50  20  60
OCF  75  95  77  96 /  10  50  10  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ153-
     154-165-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$