586
FXUS62 KJAX 021204
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
804 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Updated forecast to reflect farther east extent of training band of
showers and embedded thunderstorms extending W-E just south of the
NE FL I-10 corridor this morning. Spotty showers were also
starting to break out across interior SE GA south of an
approaching surface front.

With early start to convection and lingering cloud cover, adjusted
max temps to range generally in the lower 90s, with some sun still
expected into the afternoon. May only reach upper 80s for some
locations. Relatively `lower` high temperatures compared to recent
days combined with still high dew pts in the mid to upper 70s
create peak heat indices in the 100-106 degrees. Although `muggy`
conditions continue, today will be the first day since Friday June
25th when no heat advisory headline is expected for the local
area, ending the 7 day heat product streak.

A wet, unsettled weekend day is expected with deep layer moisture
streaming over the area from the Gulf with a broad surface low
developing along a slow moving, southward progressing surface
front currently across GA early this morning. With morning
convection streaming inland already across NE FL, the normal sea
breeze circulation will likely be disrupted or delayed. Will
monitor radar and satellite trends, but we may end up seeing a
break in convection early to mid afternoon across NE FL, while
convection breaks out across SE GA near the front. Then, more
heating across NE FL into the afternoon and early evening will
increase instability with the approach of a mid level short wave
trough, with another wave of convection breaking out potential
across NE FL in the evening near and south of the FL I-10 corridor
and focusing toward the I-95 corridor into the evening hours
between 8 pm - midnight tonight.

Satellite derived precipitable waters shows > 2 inches across the
entire forecast area with max values near 2.3 inches across SE GA.
Weak WSW steering flow < 10 kts combined with the slow moving
front, broad surface low and lingering convergent boundaries all
set the stage for localized flooding rainfall today. In addition,
heavy precipitation loading in merging cells will also bring a
localized wet downburst threat. The Weather Prediction Center
maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) of localized flooding
rainfall across SE GA today and tonight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Included TEMPO for TSRA and MVFR conditions at NE FL terminals
this morning with band of showers and storms. Light WSW winds 3-7
kts develop this morning with mulch-layered cloudiness. Continued
to indicated winds transitioning to ESE at the coastal terminals
early afternoon with the east coast sea breeze, but this may need
to be altered as current convection will disrupt typical sea
breeze pattern. More widespread showers and storms with low
restrictions expected late afternoon and into the evening
especially near SSI as surface front and broad low develop and
linger over the area. Potential for non-convective MVFR increases
at SSI after 00z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  86  71 /  90  80  90  70
SSI  89  78  87  76 /  80  70  90  70
JAX  93  76  90  74 /  80  70  90  50
SGJ  91  78  91  76 /  70  60  80  40
GNV  92  79  93  74 /  70  40  80  30
OCF  91  77  93  75 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$