239
FXUS62 KJAX 100605
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
105 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf


- Red Flag Warning on Monday Afternoon for Portions of Northeast
  and Inland North Central FL. Elevated Fire Danger Expected
  Elsewhere and also Area-Wide on Tuesday.

- Freeze Warning for Much of Our Area Late Monday Night through
  Early Tuesday Morning. Widespread Frost and Freezing
  Temperatures Likely Late Tuesday Night & Early Wednesday
  Morning.

- Wind Chill Values Fall to 20- 25 Late Monday Night & Early
  Tuesday Morning. Cold Weather Advisories in Effect for Most of
  Our Area.

- Small Craft Advisories through Late Monday Afternoon. Gale
  Warning in Effect from Late Monday Afternoon through Early
  Tuesday Morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

MVFR ceilings will prevail at SGJ through around 07Z, with a brief
shower possible. VFR conditions will then prevail area-wide by
08Z. Northwesterly surface winds will develop by 08Z at the
regional terminals, with speeds increasing to around 15 knots,
with frequent 20-25 knots gusts expected after 13Z. Surface winds
may shift slightly to west-northwesterly after 17Z, with speeds
decreasing to 10-15 knots at the inland terminals by 22Z. Speeds
will remain sustained around 15 knots and gusty at the SSI and
SGJ coastal terminals on Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1203 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Bands of showers with embedded thunderstorms will move through the
forecast area today ahead of a strong cold front pressing in from
out of the northwest. highest chances for storms will occur over
southeast Georgia this afternoon and evening with a potential for
some storms to become severe. Winds will shift to be from out of
the northwest overnight following the frontal passage and
strengthen before Monday morning. High temperatures today will
rise into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon with overnight low
temperatures dropping down into the lower 40s over southeast
Georgia and in the upper 40s and lower 50s for northeast Florida
as cold air behind the front settles in over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1203 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Monday...Coldest and driest airmass of the fall season arrives
behind departing strong cold frontal boundary. Skies become sunny
but strong cold air advection on brisk Northwest winds at
15-25G30-35 mph will hold Max temps in the 50s for most locations.

Monday Night...High pressure will build west of the region and
the tight pressure gradient will keep breezy NW winds during the
evening hours, which will relax to 5-10 mph over inland areas
after midnight, but remain elevated near the Atlantic Coast.
Despite the above normal overnight wind conditions, still expect a
Freeze across all of SE GA with lows in the middle/upper 20s, and
Freeze expected across all of NE FL to the North and West of the
St. Johns River Basin with lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s and
will post a Freeze Watch with this package. Lower confidence in
Freezing conditions to the south of JAX and East of the St. Johns
River with lows in the lower/middle 30s, so will hold off on
Freeze Watch there for now. The elevated NW winds will push Wind
Chill values to around 20F by late Monday Night and expect the
need to issue a Cold Weather Advisory for most areas, but
confidence not high enough for the issuance of this product.

Tuesday...High pressure builds into the region from the West and
while NW winds will not be as strong as Monday, still expect well
below Max Temps only in the lower 50s for SE GA and middle 50s for
NE FL, despite the Sunny skies in place. These Max Temps will be
close to setting record low Max values listed in the climate
section below.

Tuesday Night...High pressure builds directly overhead which will
result in near calm winds setting up after sunset and temps will
crash quickly through the evening hours and expect another Freeze
under clear skies with lows in the upper 20s/near 30 over inland
areas with Widespread Frost, with lows in the 30s along the
Atlantic Coast and patchy/areas of Frost.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1203 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Wednesday...Following a cold/frosty start around sunrise with
high pressure directly overhead, temps will rebound under sunny
skies and light W-SW winds into the mid/upper 60s. Another chilly
night still on track for Wednesday Night with high pressure
overhead, but likely to remain above freezing over inland areas in
the 30s, with patchy/areas of frost expected again.

Thursday/Friday...A weak and mainly dry frontal boundary slides
southward through the region, but rainfall not expected from this
feature and temps will return closer to normal values with highs
into the lower/middle 70s under mostly sunny skies and low temps
in the 40s.

Saturday/Sunday...High pressure behind the frontal boundary shifts
offshore into the Western Atlantic and confidence remains moderate
to high in temps returning to above normal levels with high temps
into the upper 70s to around 80F under mostly sunny skies. Long
range models still differing for late in the weekend with the
latest GFS run trying to push a fast moving frontal system into
the local area by Sunday afternoon with showers/isolated storm
threat, but not buying into this solution just yet.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Southerly winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon ahead of
a strong cold front that will be entering the southeastern U.S.
Showers and a few strong thunderstorms will be possible ahead of
this front during the late afternoon and evening hours with
southwesterly winds. This strong front will then cross our local
waters during the overnight hours tonight, with Small Craft
Advisory conditions overspreading our local waters as winds shift
to northwesterly while strengthening after midnight. Strong high
pressure building into the southeastern states on Monday will
result in Gale Force wind gusts on Monday night with Gale Warnings
for local and offshore local waters. High pressure will shift
eastward and will become centered directly over our local waters
by midweek, allowing for winds and seas to gradually diminish.

Rip Currents: Low risk for southeast Georgia beaches and moderate
risk for northeast Florida beaches today, becoming moderate for
all area beaches

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

A cold front moving into the area from the northwest will produce
scattered showers and isolated storms this afternoon with a thin
line of showers moving eastward along the front after sunset as it
moves through. High pressure will build in from the northwest on
Monday with an unseasonably cold and dry airmass arriving into the
first half of the week. Northwest winds 10-15 mph gusting 30-35 mph
and falling dewpoints into the 20s and 30s will push MinRH values
into the upper 20s and low 30s leading to elevated fire weather
danger conditions Monday. High Pressure will shift over the region
Tuesday and Wednesday with very dry conditions continuing as MinRH
values plummet into the low to mid 20s each afternoon. Moisture will
slowly recover by the end of the week as high pressure weakens south
of the area. High daytime dispersions are expected this afternoon as
surface and transport winds increase from the west, then shift
northwesterly Monday as the front sweeps away from the area with
gusty winds up to 30-35 and sunny skies bringing high daytime
dispersions across the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 323 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Record low maximum temperatures for Tuesday Nov 11th

KJAX: 53/1917
KCRG: 59/1996
KGNV: 55/1953
KAMG: 53/1968

Record low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday:

November 11:
KJAX: 35/1977
KCRG: 37/1991
KGNV: 31/1943
KAMG: 27/1943

November 12:
KJAX: 31/2011
KCRG: 35/2011
KGNV: 30/2011
KAMG: 27/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  28  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  55  32  53  36 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  58  30  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  60  36  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  59  31  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  60  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this
     evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-
     137-220-225-232-236-237-322-325-422-425-522.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-
     232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ021-
     023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
     232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ132>136-149-152-153-162-163-165-250-350-364.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450-
     452-454-470-472-474.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-
     454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ472-
     474.

&&

$$