058
FXUS62 KJAX 241421
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
921 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Advisory through 10 AM. Visibility down to a quarter
  mile or less over portions of southeast GA and Northeast FL.
  Areas of fog will develop again late tonight over inland

- Near Record Highs Inland through Wednesday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious
with outdoor fires  check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme
Drought Expanding Across Inland Areas

&&

.UPDATE...
Fog and stratus are continuing to lift with the faster improvements
for the east and southeast zones, so have shaved off some counties
from the dense fog advisory. Fog and stratus should be going away
completely by the 10am to 11am time frame.

Otherwise, despite the weak front from yesterday, pleasant forecast
high temps in the 70s and lower 80s are expected with dry conditions
continuing, with the coolest temps today over the coastal areas due
to onshore flow at about 10-15 mph. Above normal highs continue
today but probably not a record for the climate sites.

No other significant changes are required at this time, but another
episode of fog is expected tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning...Light and moist onshore/NE flow has already led
to patchy dense fog development from the I-10 corridor across NE FL
northward across most of SE GA, and expect the need to issue a Dense
Fog Advisory for these areas during the overnight hours. Further
southward across the rest of NE FL, some mid clouds along the old
frontal boundary will keep low levels a bit more stirred up and
expect patchy dense fog through sunrise Monday Morning. Low temps
still on track for the 50s inland and lower 60s along the Atlantic
Coast.

Today...High pressure north of the region will shift towards the
Carolinas and expect slow lifting/dissipation of the inland dense
fog by the mid/late morning hours, along with increasing East to
Northeast winds around 15G20-25 mph along the Atlantic Coastal
areas, with generally East around 10G15 mph over inland areas. Temps
still warm to above normal levels under partly sunny skies, reaching
into the lower 80s and near record levels across inland NE FL, and
into the upper 70s/near 80F across inland SE GA, while the onshore
flow will keep Max temps in the 70s along the Atlantic Coastal
areas. The diurnal heating and old frontal boundary across NE FL and
into the Atlantic Coastal waters, may be enough to trigger an
isolated shower, but overall rainfall chances remain silent around
10 percent or less through this afternoon.

Tonight...High pressure over the Carolinas shifts east into the
Western Atlantic and this will bring a shift to a southerly steering
flow and lifting of old frontal boundary northward as a quasi warm
frontal boundary, which will likely trigger some widely scattered
showers over the Atlantic Coastal waters as this feature lifts
northward, and some of these may brush the Atlantic Coastal areas to
the east of the I-95 corridor. Further inland, increased low level
moisture will lead to another night with areas of dense fog by the
overnight hours and dense fog advisories may be required once again.
Low temps generally in the mid/upper 50s over inland areas and lower
60s along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday, high pressure will exit away to the northeast and a warm
front will lift north of the area. Winds will become southeasterly
near the coast and southerly inland while a storm system to the
northwest stays north of the area. Warmer conditions will bump our
highs in the low 80s over SE GA and the low to mid 80s over NE FL
with upper 70s along the immediate coast.

Tuesday night, the first upper shortwave will exit to the Northeast
states with a more potent shortwave trough driving ESE across the
upper Midwest, serving to deepen a large trough across the central
US. A strong cold front under this upper feature will move quickly
eastward through the deep south states into Wednesday morning. Moist
south to southwest flow off the Gulf waters will allow for patchy
fog to develop over NE FL areas. Lows will be in the mid to upper
50s inland, low 60s over far western counties, and low to mid 60s
over the coast/St Johns river.

Wednesday, the deep trough will continue to shift into the eastern
half of the country as the strong shortwave over the Great Lakes
becomes negatively tilted. As it does so, it will help drive the
strong cold front, in terms of temperature gradient, ESE through the
area. The strongest mid to upper level support and broad scale lift
will shift north of the region and limit storm chances to isolated
coverage over NW portions of SE GA. Overall rainfall amounts will be
under a quarter of an inch as the system will move quickly through
the area and convergence along the front weakening. Warm conditions
will remain before the cold front arrives as good mixing boosts
highs to near record levels (see climate section) in the mid 80s
over NE FL and upper 70s/low 80s over SE GA with near 80 reading
along the coast.

Wednesday night, westerly winds will turn northwesterly as strong
high pressure builds southeastward from the upper plains. Lows will
tumble into the low 40s over inland SE GA and the mid to upper 40s
along I-10 into the Suwannee Valley with 50s along the NE FL coast
and St Johns river. Winds will create wind chills into the upper 30s
over inland zones by Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday, strong high pressure will build in from the northwest.
Brisk NW winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph will make for cool
conditions despite skies turning sunny by midday over SE GA and the
afternoon over NE FL. Cold air advection will limit highs to the
low/mid 60s over SE GA and the mid/upper 60s over NE FL.

Friday morning will be chilly in the low/mid 30s over inland SE GA
and mid/upper 30s over the Suwannee Valley. During the day, the high
will build towards the TN/OH Valleys with breezy north winds
persisting. Cold air advection will further limit highs to the upper
50s/low 60s over SE GA and the low 60s over most of NE FL which is
about 10 degrees below normal.

Saturday, another chilly start in the low/mid 30s over SE GA may
bring a potential frost, through winds may remain elevated enough to
limit frost to more sheltered areas. High pressure will pivot to the
central/southern appalachians with a tight local pressure gradient
over the area as weak inverted troughing develops over the offshore
waters that will shift winds easterly with increasing low level
clouds off the Atlantic and the dry airmass eroding in the
afternoon. With flow aloft becoming more zonal, highs will warm
compared to Friday with mid/upper 60s over SE GA and low 70s
returning to NE FL.

Sunday, high pressure will shift northeast of the region as a trough
deepens over the western US and spurs a developing storm system just
east of the Rockies. Ridging aloft across the southeast states will
allow highs to warm further into the low/mid 70s over SE GA and the
upper 70s over NE FL with easterly winds and low level moisture
increasing over the area. Inverted troughing will generate isolated
to scattered coastal showers that will move onshore in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
JAX, CRG, VQQ are VLIFR currently, with SGJ, SSI, and GNV on the
cusp of lower conditions based on satellite imagery and guidance.
The main change in the latest TAF set was to extend the low
vsby/cigs a bit longer for JAX, CRG and VQQ. Some localized low
clouds of 500-1000 ft possible still at 15z, but should be gone by
16z. VFR expected by later in the morning. Further refinements to
the TAFs are likely in the next 1-2 hours. Light to calm winds will
become east to northeast at 5-10 kt by late morning. These winds
weaken after sunset (23Z) and expect widespread VFR conds through
midnight. Some potential again for areas of fog and some low clouds.
Introduced some MVFR vsby later in the night for now, and again
further adjustments likely for 18z TAfs toward a blend of guidance
on fog and stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure system will build north of the region today, resulting
in breezy onshore winds. The high builds east of the Atlantic coast
Tuesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the west. The front
will press south of the local waters Wednesday night into Thursday,
trailed by northwest to north winds approaching Small Craft Advisory
conditions, which will continue on Friday as winds shift to the
Northeast.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Tuesday
              NE FL Moderate Tuesday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...

     AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY...

     CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...


After widespread dense fog away from the coast this morning, high
pressure will be north of the area today and shift east to the Mid
Atlantic coast with northeasterly winds becoming easterly late this
morning/midday. The high will move northeast of the region on
Tuesday with fog developing inland in the early morning hours as a
warm front lifts north across the area during the day and winds
become southerly, but no showers expected. A cold front will
approach from the northwest on Wednesday morning and create breezy
southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. Scattered to numerous showers will
spread across Southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, but will
decrease in coverage to the coast with overall precip amounts on the
light side. Increasing southwesterly surface and transport winds
will produce areas of high daytime dispersions Wednesday.

A much drier airmass arrives Thursday and Friday as strong high
pressure builds in from the northwest. Very low dewpoints into the
20s inland will create critically low Min RH values over the area
Thursday and Friday. Elevated inland winds 10-15 mph gusting to 25-
30 mph will also be close to Red Flag conditions and further
forecasts will need to be updated for this potential. Good to high
level dispersions expected to end the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Areas of dense fog in place will
become widespread through most inland areas with dense fog advisory
conditions likely through mid morning before lifting. Areas of Dense
fog/will redevelop tonight into early Tuesday morning with patchy
fog Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                       MON 11/24  TUE 11/25  WED 11/26

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)  86/2014    85/1992    84/1946
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)  84/2014    83/1992    83/2020
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)  86/1948    85/1955    84/1973
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)  83/1986    83/1986    84/1973

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  56  81  60  79 /  10   0  10  50
SSI  62  77  62  79 /  20   0   0  10
JAX  59  83  60  85 /  10   0   0  20
SGJ  61  81  62  82 /  20   0   0  10
GNV  58  84  59  85 /   0   0   0  20
OCF  58  83  59  84 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-
     030-031-035-120-136-220-236-322-422-522.
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>134-
     149-162-163-250-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$