932
FXUS62 KJAX 271802
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
202 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Local Beaches Today

- Minor Tidal Flooding for Atlantic beachfront locations and St
  Johns river basin through tonight

- Isolated Thunderstorm Activity Returns Mid to Late week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

Dry air mass will remain in place with a westerly steering flow
in place in the low levels, while higher clouds will push in
aloft. Despite the filtered sunshine, expect Max temps to return
closer to normal levels in the middle 80s. Light and variable
winds inland, with an East Coast sea breeze development during
the afternoon hours pushing inland to the I-95/US-17 corridors,
but not enough moisture aloft for any shower activity. Cooler
than normal overnight lows will continue tonight in the dry air
mass with lows in the mid/upper 50s inland SE GA, lower 60s
inland NE FL and mid/upper 60s along the Atlantic Coast. A
slight increase in moisture filters in from the west allowing
for some shallow, patchy dense fog to develop around sunrise
across inland SE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period (Monday through Tuesday night):

- Moderating temperatures, and slowly increasing moisture this period

Dry weather conditions will continue through Monday with a potential
for scattered showers and storms to develop Tuesday afternoon over
north central Florida as prevailing flow shifts about to become more
out of the south with drier air over the region receding to the
north and high pressure from out of the east extends to influence
the flow pattern over the southeastern US. High temperatures will be
in the upper 80s and lower 90s for the beginning of the week with
overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 50s and
lower to mid 60s for inland areas by the end of the forecast period,
with min temps in the upper 60s and lower 70s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period (Wednesday through Saturday):

- Increasing chances for convection each day this period

Chances for showers and potential storms will increase through
Friday as high pressure off to the northeast brings a moist
southeasterly onshore flow over northeast Florida and into southeast
Georgia. Convection will become more widespread by Saturday ahead of
a frontal boundary pressing in from out of the northwest. Above
average temperatures will continue through the end of the week and
into the weekend with daily high temps rising up into the lower 90s
for inland areas and in the mid 80s for counties along the coastline.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
VFR conds with light W winds becoming SSE later this afternoon in
the wake of the Atlantic sea breeze. Patchy fog will be possible
between 08-11Z at VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure will shift over the region Today and Monday with
prevailing west to southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the
afternoon nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High
pressure will shift east of the waters midweek with southerly winds,
turning easterly in the afternoon over the nearshore waters from
seabreeze circulation. Increasing moisture will bring a return of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters by
midweek.

Rip Currents: Long period swells, and elevated surf heights up to 4
to 6 feet will continue high risk of rip currents today. Long period
swells will slowly subside early this week with a likely return to
Moderate Risk of Rip currents on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

     MINRH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT TODAY, MID 20S OVER SE GA
- Monday, And Around 30 Over Se Ga Tuesday

A frontal zone extending from a low off the coast of the
northeastern US will be over area through Tuesday morning. High
pressure will then build to the northeast Tuesday afternoon. The
high will gradually become centered more toward the east northeast
Wednesday through Friday. Moisture will increase this period,
bringing more seasonal levels of precipitation chances toward late
week.

Fog Potential...Significant fog is not expected this morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical higher than normal tides will continue into tonight
with Minor Flooding occurring during times of high tide within the
St. Johns River Basin and along the NE FL Atlantic coast/ICWW. Water
levels peak during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher
High Water (MHHW) Today/Tonight and may need to be extended into
Monday with the next forecast package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  88  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  68  86  69  85 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  63  89  67  89 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  64  87  68  87 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  62  89  67  89 /   0  10   0  10
OCF  63  90  68  90 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ125-132-
     137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-
     166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$