385
FXUS62 KJAX 111907
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
307 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Scattered Thunderstorms Late this Afternoon and Early this
Evening. Strong to Isolated Severe Storms will Be Possible for
Locations South of I-10. Main Thunderstorm Hazards: Strong Wind
Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Hail.

- Strengthening Northeasterly Winds are Expected Across the Atlantic
Waters North of St. Augustine Late Tonight and Early Tuesday
Morning. Small Craft Advisories Will Begin After Midnight Tonight
for the Georgia Waters. High Rip Current Risks Expected at Area
Beaches on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Beneficial Rainfall and Isolated Thunderstorms Expected to
Overspread Locations Along the I-10 Corridor After Midnight Tonight.

- High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches on Tuesday and Possibly
  Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered Thunderstorms Late this Afternoon and Early this
Evening. Strong to Isolated Severe Storms will Be Possible for
Locations South of I-10. Main Thunderstorm Hazards: Strong Wind
Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Hail.

- Strengthening Northeasterly Winds are Expected Across the
  Atlantic Waters North of St. Augustine Late Tonight and Early
  Tuesday Morning. Small Craft Advisories Will Begin After
  Midnight Tonight for the Georgia Waters. High Risk for Rip
  Currents Expected at Area Beaches on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Beneficial Rainfall and Isolated Thunderstorms Expected to
Overspread Locations Along the I-10 Corridor After Midnight Tonight.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts a cold front draped from the
coastal Carolina region across southern GA and AL, with a weak
wave of low pressure developing along this boundary along the
northern Gulf coast. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1028
millibars) was building over the Great Lakes in the wake of this
cold front. Aloft...troughing was digging southeastward from
the eastern Great Lakes towards New England and the Mid-Atlantic
states, with fast zonal flow located south of this trough
across the Deep South as stout ridging remains in place over the
Greater Antilles and the Bahamas. A potent shortwave trough
embedded within this zonal flow pattern was traversing eastern
Texas, with this feature sparking a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) from coastal Louisiana and Mississippi southward through
central portions of the Gulf. Latest GOES-East derived Total
Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deeper moisture
remains in place for locations south of Interstate 10, where
PWATs were generally in the 1.75 - 2 inch range, while a drier
air mass was located over southeast GA, where PWAT values were
mostly in the 1.25 -1.5 inch range. Widely scattered convection
was developing where deeper moisture remains in place, with
activity mostly over Alachua and Putnam Counties moving slowly
eastward. A shallower cumulus field was located within he drier
air mass for locations north of the Interstate 10 corridor,
where temperatures at 19Z were generally in the 85-90 degree
range, with dewpoints mostly in the mid 60s. Inland temperatures
across northeast and north central FL were in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, with dewpoints generally in the 65-70 range. A pinned
Atlantic sea breeze boundary was slowly pushing inland from the
northeast FL beaches, where dewpoints have climbed to the 70-75
range following the passage of this boundary.

Scattered convection will continue to propagate slowly eastward
this afternoon through early this evening for locations along
and south of the I-10 corridor. Mesoscale boundary collisions
occurring in this warm, humid and unstable environment may cause
storms to pulse to strong or even briefly severe levels on an
isolated basis, especially later this afternoon along the I-95
corridor as convection encounters the pinned, slow moving
Atlantic sea breeze boundary. Stronger storms over coastal
northeast FL will be capable of producing localized downburst
winds of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning strikes, heavy downpours,
and hail. Activity should wane during the mid to late evening
hours before the aforementioned potent shortwave trough
approaches our region from the west.

Meanwhile, troughing progressing across New England and the Mid-
Atlantic states this evening will move offshore by late Tuesday
morning, with the front decelerating as its support aloft begins
to depart. The front should cross the FL/GA border towards
midnight, and the weak wave of low pressure to our west and the
approaching potent shortwave trough will result in strengthening
isentropic lift from west to east during the overnight and
predawn hours. Our local pressure gradient will also tighten
along the southeast GA coast late tonight as high pressure
building towards the Mid-Atlantic states wedges down the
southeastern seaboard, likely creating a surge of north to
northeasterly winds before sunrise for coastal southeast GA,
with this wind surge then traveling down the northeast FL coast
around or after sunrise. Deeper moisture currently in place
south of the I-10 corridor will shift northward tonight, and
beneficial rainfall will develop during the overnight and
predawn hours, mainly along and north of I-10. A few elevated
thunderstorms will be possible towards sunrise as temperatures
aloft cool with the approach of the potent shortwave trough.
Lows tonight will range from the low/mid 60s for locations north
of Waycross, with upper 60s and lower 70s expected elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to numerous showers and isolated T`storms Tuesday and
  Tuesday Night Across Northeast and North Central FL.

- Breezy Northeasterly Winds on Tuesday and Tuesday Evening, with
  Hazardous Beach Conditions and Small Craft Advisories.

- Widely Scattered T`storms Wednesday along the Atlantic Seabreeze.

A lingering stream of shortwave energy will span from the Gulf
coast and across the FL peninsula on Tuesday after the passage
of a frontal boundary during the early hours of Tuesday
morning. This will allow for scattered to numerous, widespread
at times, showers for much of the day across the area, with most
activity focused along northeast FL and north central FL. With
the passage of the front, winds will primarily be onshore from
the northeast-east as high pressure builds along the eastern sea
board. Winds from 15-20 mph, with gusts upwards to 30 mph,
along coastal locations will be likely. With the onshore flow in
place, the Atlantic sea breeze is expected to push inland
meeting the Gulf breeze during the afternoon hours, with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along the
mergers. With the coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
temperatures are expected to be relatively cooler than Monday.
Daytime highs are only expected to reach into the upper 70s
along SE GA locations and the I-10 corridor, with highs in the
lower to mid 80s along the rest of NE FL. Activity will persist
in the overnight hours into Wednesday with coastal showers and
storms lingering. Overnight Lows in the the 60s areawide, with
warmer temperatures across NE FL.

By Wednesday, high pressure along the eastern seaboard will
begin to weaken and push offshore ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary from the northwest. Continuing easterly onshore
flow will again allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to push
onshore and bring chances of showers and storms as the sea
breeze pushes inland with activity dwindling by the evening
hours. Daytime highs will trend higher than Tuesday, with
temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. By the evening hours winds
will steadily shift from the southeast towards the southwest-
west by Thursday morning ahead of the next cold front. Lows will
again be in the 60s areawide Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

- Dry Conditions late this week into the Weekend.

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend.

A period of dry conditions return during the back half of this
week and through the weekend as a cold front pushes into the
area on Thursday. Behind the front, high pressure builds over
the region and remain overhead over the upcoming weekend. There
could be a few showers/storms along the sea breezes, but not
expecting the same coverage as earlier in the week. Near normal
temperatures during the end of the week with temperatures in the
80s, with a few locations in the 90s over north central FL. By
the weekend, temperatures will rise to above normal as most
locations rise above the 90F mark, with coastal locations in the
80s thanks to the onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue developing near the
northeast FL terminals through around 01Z. Confidence was only high
enough to indicate vicinity thunderstorm coverage at this time, but
please check for amendments as the afternoon and evening progresses.
Outside of potential impacts during heavier downpours, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail at the regional terminals through
at least 07Z. A surge of northeasterly winds is expected to arrive
at SSI after 07Z, where surface speeds will become sustained at 10-
15 knots, with frequent gusts of around 20 knots expected through
the rest of the TAF period. Lowering ceilings and increasing chances
for rainfall will accompany this wind surge as it settles southward
across the Duval County terminals after 09Z, with IFR conditions
overspreading SSI, JAX, CRG, and VQQ before 11Z. Strengthening north-
northeasterly surface winds and lowering ceilings will arrive at SGJ
and GNV after 12Z, with IFR conditions expected by 14Z. Periods of
locally heavy downpours will be possible after 10Z at the regional
terminals, and PROB30 groups for IFR visibilities have been inserted
throughout the morning hours on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will cross the waters adjacent to southeast Georgia
late this evening and then the northeast Florida waters during the
early to mid-morning hours on Tuesday morning. A few strong
thunderstorms could impact the near shore waters late this afternoon
and evening, with frequent lightning strikes and briefly gusty winds
possible. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will then
overspread our local waters on Tuesday morning, with periods of
heavier downpours possible through Tuesday night. Meanwhile, high
pressure building over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states in
the wake of this frontal passage will send a surge of northeasterly
winds down the southeastern seaboard overnight tonight through
Tuesday morning, with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing
initially across the Georgia waters after midnight and then
expanding to the waters from St. Augustine northward early on
Tuesday morning. Showers and embedded thunderstorms, along with
Small Craft Advisory conditions, will continue through late Tuesday
night across our local waters. Showers may linger through Wednesday
before another high pressure center builds southward from the Great
Lakes states late this week, signaling a drying trend that will
continue across our local waters through the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents:

A lower end moderate risk will continue through Monday evening
at  area beaches, with surf heights generally around 2 feet or
less expected. A high risk is forecast at area beaches on
Tuesday, as northeasterly winds strengthen to 20-25 mph towards
sunrise at the southeast GA beaches, with this northeasterly
wind surge likely arriving at the northeast FL beaches during
the early to mid-morning hours. Surf heights will build to 2-3
feet on Tuesday at the southeast GA beaches and 3-4 feet at the
northeast FL beaches. These surf heights will persist into
Wednesday, keeping an elevated risk in place at all area
beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- High Afternoon Dispersions Thursday

- NEAR CRITICAL MINRH VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER Inland
  Southeast Georgia

Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop Today and
into Tonight as a cold front pushes through the area. Higher
chances of showers develop on Tuesday primarily over northeast
Florida. Winds will primarily be from the northeast-east on
Tuesday, with stronger winds along the coast. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are likely along the sea breeze mergers
during the afternoon hours. Activity will begin to lessen by
Tuesday evening, with coastal showers/storms continuing. By
Wednesday isolated showers/storms are again expected along the
Atlantic seabreezes over the US-17 and I-95 corridors. Dry cold
front moves through Thursday, high pressure will build overhead
Friday and Saturday.

Dispersions will be in the good range on Tuesday despite breezy
winds due to low cloud cover, but increase Wednesday from higher
mixing heights. Drier airmass arriving on Thursday and
increasing transport winds ahead of and behind the dry cold
front will create widespread high afternoon dispersions. MinRH
values will fall to near critical levels Thursday and Friday
over inland Southeast Georgia.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Gusty and erratic winds
expected in and near thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  77  60  83 /  40  30  20  40
SSI  69  76  69  80 /  40  60  40  40
JAX  70  77  66  83 /  50  80  40  70
SGJ  72  81  69  83 /  60  80  50  70
GNV  70  82  65  86 /  60  90  20  50
OCF  70  84  67  86 /  30  80  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through late
     Tuesday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through late
     Tuesday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-
     470.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ452-
     472.

&&

$$