740
FXUS62 KJAX 100722
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
322 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Near Record Heat Continues Across Most of Our Area through
  Saturday.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon and Early Evening
  Thunderstorms are Possible Today, Mainly for Locations South
  of Interstate 10.

- Heat Advisory Today for all of Northeast and North Central FL
  and Also the Coastal Counties in Southeast GA. Peak Heat Index
  Values of 105-112 for Most Locations. Major Heat Risk for
  Portions of Our Area Continues through Saturday.

- Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorm Coverage Gradually
  Increases this Weekend through Early Next Week. Locally Heavy
  Rainfall is Possible Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Near Record Heat Continues Area-Wide.

- Heat Advisory for Northeast and North Central FL and the
  Coastal Southeast GA Counties Today.

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon and Early Evening
Thunderstorms, Mainly Across Northeast and North Central FL.

Overnight surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1021
millibars) centered over the southwestern Atlantic, with this
feature extending its axis westward across the FL peninsula and
into the southeastern Gulf. Aloft...deep-layered Atlantic
ridging remains in control of our weather pattern, with a weak
shortwave trough moving slowly eastward across southeast AL and
southwestern GA on the northern periphery of the Atlantic ridge.
Meanwhile, a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) was
spinning westward across the Bahamas, with this feature moving
across the southern periphery of the deep-layered ridge. Latest
GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates
that seasonably moist conditions remain in place across
southeast GA, northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, and
across portions of north central and coastal northeast FL, where
PWATs were generally around 1.9 inches. The northern extent of
a Saharan Air Layer (SAL) has otherwise dropped PWATs to around
1.6 inches elsewhere across northeast and north central FL.
Mainly mid and high altitude debris cloud cover originating from
late afternoon and evening convection was drifting across
portions of our area, with fair skies otherwise in place.
Temperatures at 07Z ranged from the mid to upper 70s at most
inland locations to the lower 80s at coastal locations.
Dewpoints were generally 70-75.

Deep-layered ridging will lift slightly northward today as the
weak shortwave over the Deep South fills. Meanwhile, the
aforementioned TUTT feature will continue to spin slowly
westward across the Bahamas through tonight. This evolution of
the weather pattern will place the ridge axis directly across
our region, with prevailing low level southwesterly flow
advecting the northern extend of the SAL into southeast GA this
afternoon. Otherwise, a pocket of deeper moisture currently in
place from St. Augustine southward along the northeast FL coast
and also over eastern portions of the Ocala National Forest will
also shift slightly northward, and just enough moisture should
be in place across north central and portions of northeast FL
this afternoon to ignite isolated to widely scattered convection
along mesoscale boundaries such as the inland moving Atlantic
and Gulf sea breezes, as well as the St. Johns River and Lake
George breezes, with activity mainly developing for locations
south of Interstate 10. A few storms could briefly pulse and
become strong late this afternoon as mesoscale boundaries
collide, with strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph being the primary
threat, along with cloud to ground lightning strikes. Activity
should quickly diminish early this evening.

The bigger story will continue to be the heat, with a more
subsident air mass beneath the SAL allowing highs to soar to
near daily records (see "Climate" section below for details, as
most locations across our region top out between 95-100 degrees.
The increasingly subsident air mass will allow dewpoints to mix
down to the 60s across most of inland southeast GA and for
inland portions of northeast and north central FL. Dewpoints
will remain in the 70s at coastal locations and will again
increase to the upper 70s late this afternoon as the Atlantic
sea breeze pushes inland past the I-95 corridor. We left the
inherited Heat Advisory untouched, which includes all of
northeast and north central FL, as well as Camden and Glynn
Counties in coastal southeast GA. Heat indices will soar to the
108-112 degree range in the Heat Advisory area, and a few
coastal locations and possibly inland locations in northeast FL
could briefly nudge above the 113 degree threshold as the sea
breeze pushes inland later this afternoon. Confidence was too
low to try and pinpoint any areas that will reach Excessive Heat
Warning criteria (113 degrees and above) at this time.

Breezy conditions will develop at coastal locations late this
afternoon and will continue through early this evening as the
Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland. Otherwise, debris cloud cover
from any convection that manages to develop later this afternoon
will gradually thin out towards midnight, with low level
southwesterly flow keeping lows in the mid to upper 70s, except
around 80 at coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights During This Period:

- Heat Advisory potential for Saturday.

- Increased Storm Chances This Weekend, Especially Sunday.

Southerly flow brings in more moisture across the area, with
convective chances increasing Saturday primarily over Northeast
Florida where PWATs will rise into the 2-2.5" range. Dangerous
heat continues on Saturday, with highs reaching the mid to
upper 90s and max afternoon heat index values of 105-110
degrees. A Heat Advisory may be necessary for northeast Florida
and coastal Southeast Georgia.

Sunday, deep southwest flow and an approaching front from the
north will prompt numerous showers and storms across the area,
especially near the east coast where the Atlantic and Gulf sea
breezes meet. The Weather Prediction Center has southeast
Georgia and coastal Northeast Florida under a `Marginal` risk of
Excessive Rainfall. With higher cloud cover and storm coverage,
temperatures will finally drop to near normal, with max heat
indices staying below Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Main Highlights During This Period:

- Unsettled Pattern Early to Mid Week.

- Not as hot Monday through Wednesday.

Storm chances remain high through Tuesday as the front sinks
into Georgia Sunday night into Monday, then reaches the area
on Tuesday and dissipates through mid-week. Several days of
numerous heavy showers and storms will pose a threat to
localized flooding, most of the area is under a `Marginal` risk
of Excessive Rainfall on Monday. The generally westerly surface
flow will keep highest storm chances and strong storm potential
closer to I-95 where the sea breezes interact. Temperatures drop
further Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the mid 80s to mid
90s.

Wednesday onward, scattered storms forecast area-wide for the
afternoons and evenings, with near seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 17Z. Only isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop near the northeast FL
terminals after 17Z, with confidence high enough to include a
PROB30 group for brief wind gusts up to 30 knots and MVFR
visibilities during heavier downpours at GNV after 21Z through
around 01Z Saturday. Confidence remains too low elsewhere at the
Duval County terminals and SGJ to maintain vicinity shower or
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. VFR
conditions should then prevail at the regional terminals after
02Z Saturday, with MVFR visibilities possibly developing towards
the end of the TAF period at VQQ. Southwesterly surface winds
will remain sustained around 5 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal
terminals overnight. West- southwesterly surface winds are
expected to develop by 13Z elsewhere, with speeds at the
regional terminals increasing to 5-10 knots by 15Z. The inland
moving Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze boundaries will shift
surface winds to southeasterly and southerly at the coastal
terminals by 19Z, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots. Outside
of developing convection, surface winds at GNV will shift to
south-southwesterly around 10 knots towards 21Z. South to
southwesterly surface winds will then diminish to around 5 knots
or less at the inland terminals by 03Z, while speeds remain in
the 5-10 knot range at the coastal terminals through around 06Z
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward
across the Florida peninsula through Saturday morning, with this
weather pattern maintaining a prevailing southwesterly wind
flow during the overnight and morning hours, with southeast and
southerly winds then surging to Caution levels during the late
afternoon and evening hours as the Atlantic sea breeze shifts
inland through Saturday. Only isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across the near shore waters this afternoon, mainly
from around St. Augustine southward. Troughing will then develop
over the southeastern states by late Saturday and Sunday, with
prevailing westerly winds forecast and increasing chances for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially by Sunday and
Monday. A frontal boundary will then sink into the southeastern
states early next week, with this feature likely stalling over
the southeast Georgia waters by Tuesday before weakening towards
midweek. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast on
Tuesday across our local waters, with coverage then expected to
gradually decrease by Wednesday and especially Thursday.

Rip Currents:

Southeast to southerly winds strengthening late this afternoon
will create a lower end moderate risk at all area beaches
today, with surf increasing to 2-3 feet towards sunset at the
northeast FL beaches, while surf only increases to 1-2 feet at
the southeast GA beaches. A lower end moderate risk may develop
again at the northeast FL beaches late on Saturday afternoon as
onshore winds strengthen, but a low risk appears likely at the
southeast GA beaches due to low surf heights. Prevailing
offshore winds on Sunday and Monday should yield a low risk at
area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Areas Of High Dispersions Friday And Saturday North of I-10.

- Heat Advisory In Effect Today.

High pressure ridge will prevailing just south of the area
through Saturday. Drier than normal conditions are forecast
through Saturday before rain chances begin to increase late
weekend and into early next week as a frontal boundary
approaches from the north. Above average temperatures and
dangerous maximum afternoon heat index values expected through
Saturday. Southwesterly surface winds continue through Saturday,
with areas of high afternoon dispersion along and north of
I-10. Despite drier air in place, minRH will remain above
critical values, in the 35 to 45% range away from the coast.
Heavy rain potential Sunday through Tuesday.

Fog Potential and other remarks: Significant fog potential is
not expected through Friday night. Erratic wind gusts possible
in and near thunderstorms, and at times, at a distance due to
outflows.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites
for Friday and Saturday, July 10th-11th.

July 10th:

KJAX: 102/1879
KGNV: 99/1914
KAMG: 99/1980
KCRG: 99/2016

July 11th:

KJAX: 104/1879
KGNV: 100/1900
KAMG: 100/1980
KCRG: 99/1998

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  76  98  76 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  99  81  98  80 /  10  10  20  20
JAX 100  77  99  77 /  10  10  50  40
SGJ  97  79  96  77 /  10  20  40  30
GNV  98  74  97  75 /  30  20  50  20
OCF  99  74  96  77 /  20  30  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
     422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ153-154-165-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$