Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
375 FXUS62 KJAX 291300 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 900 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Numerous Thunderstorms this Afternoon through this Evening. Main Area of Concern: Inland Locations Between U.S. Highway 301 and I-75. Stronger Storms Will Be Capable of Producing Localized Flooding, Wind Gusts of 40-50 mph, and Frequent Lightning Strikes. - Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches Today. - Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms through Monday. Widespread Additional Rainfall Totals of 1-3 Inches are Forecast, with Localized Higher Totals Possible. Daily Marginal Risk of Flooding, especially at Urban and Normally Flood-Prone, Low- Lying Areas. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - High chances of thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, with a few strong storms and localized flooding possible. Fairly complex set up today and tonight with unsettled weather. Generally weak ridging aloft over the southern most zones today while the north zones are affected by shortwave troughing and vort lobes passing through that area. A front will be over the Carolinas today and will shift slightly southward. A pre-frontal sfc troughing will be across our north zones this morning, oriented northwest to southeast. This broad zone of confluence / troughing will drift southwest today and then become diffuse tonight and dissipate. The combination of PWATS of around 2.1 inches, daytime heating, and the trough will lead to numerous showers and storms today. Given the very moist airmass (2+inch PWAT, mean low level mixing ratio of near 16g/kg, and warm cloud depth of 12-13 kft), there is certainly potential for 2-3 inch hourly amounts which will cause some minor flooding concerns, especially in any urbanized locations. By this evening, most of the convection will be inland near and west of Highway 301 where the best low level convergence looks to occur. Convection will be slow to dissipate, likely not totally ending overnight, but certainly should be on a weakening trend after midnight. Max temps today will lower over southeast GA (lower to mid 80s) given cloud cover there and earlier precip onset. For northeast FL, more in the mid to upper 80s, probably around 90 deg from Palatka westward into north central FL. Lows mild again tonight in the lower to mid 70s. Patchy fog will be possible this morning and again early Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Numerous to widespread thunderstorms continue through the weekend, with potential for localized gusty winds and minor flooding, mainly along the I-95 corridor. Deep moisture as well as a meandering frontal boundary accompanied by upper level frontal waves will persist a numerous to widespread shower and t`storm regime throughout the weekend. With the frontal boundary just to the north and east of the area Saturday, a light to modest southwesterly flow around 5-10 mph is expected to bring convection more dominated by the west coast sea breeze. Along with the highest coverage of showers and t`storms closer to the boundary north and east of about I-10, some enhancement along the I-95 corridor will be likely during Saturday Afternoon and evening as the boundary collides with the nearly pinned Atlantic breeze. Severe threat is once again low, though PWATs around 2 inches will continue torrential rainfall/minor flooding threat in addition to the "usual" gusty wind threat with stronger cells. Southwest flow will allow highs in the mid 80s to low 90s, despite more clouds than sunshine. Similar to recent nights, some showers and isolated t`storms will continue through at least the start of Saturday Night given the presence of the front, which will sink a bit further south throughout the night. Interior GA will have the highest chances for lingering rainfall. Sunday, the aforementioned frontal boundary will sink towards almost directly across the area, shifting flow generally out of the north to northeast. Though showers/t`storms will remain likely for the entirety of the area, the "axis" of more enhanced activity is expected to shift towards the I-75 corridor where the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland to collide with the Gulf Breeze. Similar to Saturday, heavy rainfall and minor flooding will be the primary concern once again, with some lingering activity also possible once again into Sunday Night. Highs Sunday will drop a bit thanks to the flow shift, with widespread 80s forecast. Some readings in the mid to upper 60s will invade interior GA for both Saturday and Sunday Nights as low to mid 70s persist elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Warmer with Less Storm Coverage by Tuesday. - Cooler, breezy & drier with inland storm Wednesday-Friday. Elevated rain chances continue Monday as the frontal zone lingers .over the local area while gradually settling southward. Models are trending toward a broad surface low developing along the boundary early Monday, which could enhance localized flooding risk especially toward the coast north of a low center & along the surface front where convergence would be greatest. By Tuesday, models are in good agreement shifting the front south of the local forecast area with much drier air (PWAT falling below 1 inch) under drier NW steering flow which will bring lower rain chances and enable temperatures to warm back toward climo values. Wednesday through Friday, a much drier pattern unfolds with below normal PWAT and onshore, easterly flow as surface high pressure builds north of the region Tuesday with breezy onshore flow, then the ridge settles south and east building offshore of the southeast Atlantic sea board into late next week. Looking drier with pleasant, near to below average temperatures with highs in the 80s and mild lows in the 60s to 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... IFR ceilings at SSI are expected to lift to low MVFR by 15Z. VFR .conditions are expected to prevail elsewhere through around 18Z, with periods of MVFR ceilings around 2,000 feet possible after 14Z. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop initially near the SSI terminal after 15Z, with activity then expected to develop along the Atlantic sea breeze boundary near the Duval County terminals and SGJ after 17Z. Convection developing along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary should then encounter convection developing along the inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze during the late afternoon hours, with this activity likely impacting the GNV terminal towards or after 20Z. TEMPO groups for brief wind gusts up to 30 knots and IFR conditions during heavier downpours were used at each terminal. Convection is currently expected to dissipate at SSI towards 21Z, the Duval County terminals and SGJ towards 23Z, and at GNV towards 02Z. After a brief period of VFR to MVFR conditions, IFR conditions due to fog and low stratus clouds are expected to develop at VQQ after 03Z Saturday, at SSI towards 07Z, and at GNV towards 09Z. Confidence was too low to currently indicate ceiling and visibility restrictions at SGJ, CRG, and JAX during the predawn hours on Saturday at this time. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary will be nearly stationary just north of the area waters today and tonight and then lift further northeast of the area on Saturday. A wet pattern is expected to continue today through Saturday with a couple of stronger storms with gusty winds possible. The cold front will move back south into the Georgia waters late Saturday night and likely into the northeast Florida waters on Sunday. Winds may reach caution levels on Sunday due to the cold front moving into the area. The front will remain nearly stationary or drift southward early next week. In general, the unsettled weather pattern will continue to persist into early next week. Rip Currents: With general wind forecasts will be fairly weak today through Saturday, and seas at area buoys are 3 ft or less. Still lingering wind-sea swells about 8 or 9 seconds, and surf of averaging about 2 ft, possibly 3 ft at the most. Most of the energy from the east-southeast direction so longshore current will be toward the north. All in all, a low-end moderate risk Friday, and may trend a little lower on Saturday given offshore flow and model guidance showing lower seas/surf. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy Low Daytime Dispersions Over Inland Southeast GA Today. - Patchy High Daytime Dispersions Saturday. Unsettled conditions featuring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend, as a frontal boundary approaches the area before meandering to our north and east. Much needed heavy rainfall will accompany thunderstorms, with gusty winds also possible in stronger storms. Outside of any storms, light flow will allow a sea breeze to push inland today, though a more southwest flow Saturday will keep this breeze near the Atlantic coast. A moderate "surge" of onshore winds will come on Sunday as high pressure tries to push towards the area. Dispersions will be poor to fair north and east today with patchy low dispersions possible thanks to plenty of cloud cover and widespread rain/t`storms. Further south and west closer to I-75, fair to good are expected thanks to better mixing/transport winds. Good to patchy high dispersions will then be expected Saturday before onshore flow limits to a poor to fair range Sunday and into Monday. Shower/t`storm chances persist albeit lower heading into next week as some drier air tries to filter in. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected into early next week, but patchy morning fog will be possible in areas where heavy rain fell during the previous afternoon. Erratic winds and heavy downpours are expected during periods of thunderstorms over the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 70 85 68 / 80 70 80 70 SSI 84 74 88 73 / 70 60 80 80 JAX 86 72 90 72 / 70 40 90 70 SGJ 87 73 90 73 / 60 30 90 60 GNV 90 72 88 72 / 70 60 70 40 OCF 89 73 87 74 / 70 50 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$