117
FXUS62 KJAX 211702
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
102 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Continued Hot  Heat Index 105-108 deg Today

- Stormy Today & Saturday. Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Afternoon
& into Evening. Hazards: Gusty Winds (40-60 mph), localized flooding,
& frequent lightning. Daily isolated to scattered afternoon & evening
storms Sunday - Thursday

- Moderate Afternoon Rip Current Risk Today

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Highlights through Tonight:

- Heat advisories in effect for portions of the area this afternoon

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening

Mid level shortwave aloft across inland SE GA just north of the
FL/GA border has triggered scattered showers and storms this morning
across Clinch/Echols/Hamilton counties. This feature will slowly
drift off to the E-NE this afternoon/evening and interact with sea
breeze and outflow boundaries to produce scattered to numerous
showers and storms, mainly from the I-10 corridor of NE FL northward
across all of SE GA. Cooler than normal temps aloft from -7C to -8C
at 500 mb will help to increase mid level lapse rates and expect
scattered strong to isolated severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60
mph along with heavy downpours and localized flood threat due to the
slow storm motion towards the E-NE around 10 mph or less. This
activity will then interact with southward moving frontal boundary
convection near the Altamaha River Basin and expect numerous to
widespread showers and storms later this evening into the early
overnight hours of inland SE GA near the Altamaha Basin that will
continue the heavy rainfall threat, although much of this local area
has been rain-free for several days, so mainly urban areas will have
the higher flood threat tonight.

As far as temps go this afternoon/evening, the mid level shortwave
and abundant clouds have lessened the coverage of heat advisory
conditions, but just enough pockets of Max Temps into the lower to
middle 90s will produce some heat indices of 105-109F, so will keep
current heat advisory in place for now. Low temps tonight should
drop into the lower/middle 70s inland, mostly due to rain cooled
temps for most locations, with upper 70s along the Atlantic Coastal
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period (Saturday and Sunday):

- Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms Saturday

- Localized Flooding Rain Risk Saturday

- Drier Sunday for Southeast GA

Unsettled weather continues Saturday with likely ongoing areas of
morning showers and isolated storms moving inland from the Gulf
coast region with the approach of the surface front under the
meandering mid level trough across the area aloft. Convection will
spread eastward across the area from the southwest through the day
along the surface front across southeast GA and along the sea
breezes across northeast Florida into the afternoon, with convection
ongoing into the evening along the surface front as it settles
southward toward northeast Florida. By Sunday, the surface front is
expected to be near the Fl-Ga state-line, trailed by a drier and
more stable northwest flow across southeast GA with less than 10%
chance of rain Sunday while enough moisture lingers south of the
front across northeast FL to continue isolated to scattered shower
and thunderstorm chances into the afternoon along a dominant west
coast sea breeze. Isolated strong to briefly severe storms will be
possible both Saturday and Sunday with cooler temperatures aloft and
some lift under weak PVA.

Heat indices will trend lower this weekend compared to earlier in
the week thanks to more clouds cover and storminess on Saturday and
then drier air filtering in across southeast GA Sunday. Saturday
highs will top out in the low to mid 90s and then Sunday highs warm
back into the upper 90s for southeast GA north of the front. Heat
index values will hover around 105 for most locations each day, but
there will be periods of 105-109 deg in cloud breaks especially
toward the coast. Confidence not high enough for prolonged enough
duration of heat advisory for Saturday at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period (Monday through Thursday):

- Hot and Drier Monday

- Storminess Returns Tuesday

The broader pattern will keep an initially drier northwesterly flow
across the region Monday limiting rain chances Monday to mainly
northeast Florida. Deeper moisture returns by Tuesday with
increasing rain chances as another mid level trough axis begins to
deepen down across the southeast region with a return of more
scattered afternoon and evening storms under a prevailing west coast
sea breeze regime as surface fronts nose southward across GA toward
the end of the week.

The hottest day will be Monday as a dry airmass heats up in to
the mid/upper 90s. Above normal temperatures are expected to
continue through the week with highs generally in the low 90s
Tuesday onward with heat index values generally below local heat
advisory criteria at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this afternoon
and evening in the 18Z-00Z time frame and will need to time out
PROB30 and TEMPO groups for gusty TSRA activity and MVFR CIGS and
potential IFR VSBYS. Timing will be earliest from 18-00Z for the NE
FL TAF sites and 20-02Z for SSI at this time. Convection should
start to fade after sunset (00Z) but may linger at SSI until the 04-
06Z time frame, then return to VFR conds at all TAF sites with low
chances of fog for Saturday morning/sunrise and will leave out for
now. Timing for showers/storms on Saturday should occur after the
current 18Z end time.

&&

.MARINE...


A frontal zone will extend across the Carolinas and into Georgia
this period, with a high pressure ridge to the southeast. Rounds of
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms can be
expected each day. Brief southerly wind surges are expected during
the late afternoon and evening hours, but are expected to remain
below Small Craft Exercise Caution levels through the period.

Rip Currents: Offshore winds will prevail throughout the morning
hours, along with low surf heights, during the next several days.
With the outgoing tide occurring later in the afternoon, the overall
risk will be low today and low to low end moderate this weekend as
an afternoon seabreeze brings light south to southeast winds to the
beaches. Surf/breakers will remain 1-2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Unsettled weather will continue through Saturday with waves of
showers and storms across the area with a front approaching today
and lingering across the area tomorrow. Isolated strong to severe
storms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evenings
capable of strong wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning. Prevailing southwest winds today and Saturday become more
northwest across southeast Georgia on Sunday as the front stalls
across northeast Florida. The drier northwest flow will bring lower
humidity and mostly dry weather to southeast Georgia Sunday with
minimum humidity between 35-40% while scattered to isolated
afternoon showers and storms impact northeast Florida where higher
moisture will continue. Hotter temperatures on Sunday will bring
higher dispersion to areas near the Altamaha River basin while
dispersion in the Good range prevails for most other locations.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures are possible at some of our designated
climate sites during the next few days:

Friday, August 21:
KJAX: 101/1900
KGNV: 99/1983
KAMG: 100/1980
KCRG: 99/2016

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  72  93  72 /  60  70  70  10
SSI  91  76  90  76 /  40  40  70  20
JAX  94  74  93  74 /  50  30  60  20
SGJ  93  75  93  74 /  30  20  40  10
GNV  93  73  91  73 /  30  10  60  20
OCF  93  73  91  73 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-220-225-232-233-
     236-237-322-325-333-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-152>154-
     162-163-165-166-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$