160
FXUS62 KJAX 281902
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
302 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Near Record Heat with Dangerous Heat Indices through
  Wednesday.

- Heat Advisories Continue Area-Wide through 8 PM this Evening,
  with Peak Heat Index Values of 108-112 Degrees this Afternoon.

- Only Isolated Thunderstorms Possible for Inland Locations
  South of I-10 through this Evening.
- Dangerously Hot & Humid Weather Continues through Wednesday. Heat
Advisories in Effect Area-Wide Today, with Heat Indices up to 112
Expected. Extreme Heat Watch & Heat Advisory Wed, Heat Indices of
110-115 Possible

- Isolated TStorms this Afternoon and Evening, Mostly South of
  I-10
- Extreme Heat Watches Issued for Wednesday for Locations South
  of Waycross in Southeast GA, Except for Portions of North
  Central FL. Heat Index Values in Excess of 113 Degrees are
  Possible on Wednesday Afternoon for these Locations.

- Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are Possible on Wednesday
  Afternoon and Evening. Damaging Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph,
  Frequent Lightning Strikes, and Localized Flooding Due to
  Heavy Downpours are Possible.

- Numerous Mainly Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms are
  Expected from Thursday through Monday. Daily Rounds of Heavy
  Downpours Could Result in Localized Flooding.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights For Today and Tonight:

- Near Record Heat with Dangerous Heat Indices through
  Wednesday.

- Heat Advisories Continue Area-Wide through 8 PM this Evening,
  with Peak Heat Index Values of 108-112 Degrees this
  Afternoon.

- Only Isolated Thunderstorms Possible for Inland Locations
  South of I-10 through this Evening.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts weakening high pressure (1014
millibars) positioned over western Gulf. Meanwhile, a surface
trough was positioned across north central FL. Otherwise, a cold
front was pushing southward through the Ohio Valley and the
Upper Midwest, with another high pressure center (1019
millibars) spilling southward from Canada into the Great Lakes
region in the wake of this front. Aloft..."heat wave" ridging
remains centered over the southern Rockies and the southern
Plains states, while troughing deepens from southeastern Canada
through New England and the Mid- Atlantic states. A leftover
mesoscale convective vortex (MCV)from overnight convection was
weakening near Lake George in north central FL. Hazy skies
remain in place across our region to the north of this feature,
compliments of high altitude smoke that was emanating from
numerous wildfires across the Pacific Northwest. Latest GOES-
East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that
PWATs across southeast GA were near late July climatology (1.8
-2 inches), while values were generally around or just 2 inches
across the rest of our area.

Despite abundant moisture in place across northeast and north
central FL, an unseasonably subsident air mass was limiting
cumulus cloud growth for locations along and north of the
Interstate 10 corridor. The inland moving Gulf sea breeze
boundary has developed a few brief showers over southern
portions of the Suwannee Valley and across north central FL, but
updrafts have been weak and short- lived thus far. Temperatures
at 19Z have soared to the mid to upper 90s at most inland
locations, while the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze has
lowered coastal temperatures across northeast FL to the upper
80s and lower 90s, with low to mid 90s prevailing for coastal
southeast GA. Dewpoints were generally in the 70s, with heat
index values values climbing to the 100-108 degree range.

Inland moving sea breezes will continue to battle the strongly
subsident air mass that will remain in place across our area.
Only isolated convection is expected this afternoon and evening,
mainly for inland locations south of Interstate 10, where
colliding sea, lake and river breezes could generate brief
showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. Hazy skies will
continue through the overnight period as northwesterly flow
deepens as troughing digs from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-
Atlantic states. This digging trough will drive an associated
cold front southward from the Ohio Valley through the Tennessee
Valley and the southern Appalachians by sunrise on Wednesday.
Our local pressure gradient will tighten somewhat ahead of this
approaching front, with a southwesterly breeze keeping lows in
the 75-80 degree range overnight, which will be near record warm
minimum temperatures for July 29th (see "Climate" section below
for details).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Area-wide Heat Advisory Wednesday, with Extreme Heat Watch
  for coastal SE GA, coastal and inland NE FL.

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with strong to severe
  storms possible Wednesday and Thursday.

A frontal boundary will shifts southward towards the area on
Wednesday. Ahead of the front, an unstable air mass with CAPE
values  from 2K to 3K J/kg over the area, will bring the
potential for numerous to widespread strong to severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon to early evening hours across
SE GA and NE FL. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has
highlighted most of the area either under a Marginal to Slight
Risk of Severe Storms for Wednesday afternoon, with the Slight
Risk extending from Alma, GA southwards towards the Suwannee
Valley Region and eastward towards St. Augustine, FL. With any
storms that do develop, the main hazards will likely be strong
downbursts with winds ranging from 40 to 60 mph. An abundant
amount of moisture aloft, we will likely also see heavy
downpours that will bring flooding potential. By Thursday, the
front will begin to stall near the FL/GA state line. Another day
of showers and storms as the front will focus most of the
activity south of its boundary across NE FL with On Thursday,
with lower chances over interior SE GA. Similar to Wednesday,
heavy downpours and strong downbursts will be possible for any
showers and storms that develop during the afternoon to evening
hours.

Temperatures on Wednesday will once again rise into mid to upper
90s across the area. In addition to the hot temperatures,
dewpoints in the 70s will bring Heat Index values at or above
Heat Advisory criteria, potentially into Extreme Heat Warning
levels. At this time we have issued another Heat Advisory for
all of SE GA and NE FL and an Extreme Heat Watch along the
coastal and inland locations of NE FL for Wednesday. Thursday, a
bit cooler with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
  which may become strong to severe.

The stalled boundary will remain near the FL/GA state line into
the weekend and begin to lift northward on Sunday. With an
abundant amount of moisture and frontal convergence, there will
continue to be a good coverage of convective development Friday
through Monday as strong to isolated severe storms will be
possible each afternoon. Temperatures will be above normal
Friday. With convective activity expected over the weekend and
into the upcoming week, temperatures will be cooler compared to
the past couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Only
isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
through around 03Z this evening, mainly for inland locations
south of I-10. Confidence in potential impacts remains too low
to indicate anything other than vicinity showers at GNV, with
dry weather expected through the TAF period elsewhere. South to
southwesterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots
at the inland terminals through around 15Z Wednesday, followed
by winds shifting to west-southwesterly and increasing to 10-15
knots and gusty by 16Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary has
pushed just inland from the coast, shifting surface winds to
southeasterly at 10-15 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal
terminals. Surface winds at the coastal terminals will shift to
southwesterly at 5-10 knots after 00Z, with winds shifting to
west- southwesterly around 10 knots by 15Z Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Prevailing southwesterly winds are forecast today, with only
isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible over the near shore
waters adjacent to northeast Florida. Wind speeds will increase
to Caution levels early this evening throughout our local
waters, with these stronger speeds continuing through around
sunrise on Wednesday. A frontal boundary will then sink into the
Deep South late this week, with this feature becoming
stationary during the weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible well in advance of this front on Wednesday
afternoon and evening, with stronger storms potentially
producing damaging wind gusts, waterspouts, frequent lightning
strikes, and torrential downpours. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will continue across the northeast Florida waters
on Thursday and Friday, with less coverage currently forecast
for the Georgia waters. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will
then overspread all of our local waters during the upcoming
weekend. Outside of expected thunderstorm activity,
southwesterly winds will prevail and will strengthen ahead of
the approaching front beginning towards midweek, with Caution
conditions likely through the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: Low-end moderate risk of rip currents is expected
through Wednesday at Northeast FL and Southeast GA beaches with
surf/breakers of only 1-2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

-Heat Indices in the Advisory to Extreme Heat Warning range for
 much of the area through Wednesday.

-Patchy to areas of high daytime dispersions this week.

-Isolated to Scattered Severe Storms Wednesday.

A frontal zone across the Tennessee Valley will move into
central Georgia on Wednesday and into southeast Georgia
Thursday morning and slowly lift northward on Friday through the
weekend. As the front moves into the region on Wednesday, it
will support increased chances of thunderstorms mid week. Gusty
and erratic winds can be expected in and near storms. Isolated
to scattered storms may be strong to severe Wednesday afternoon
and evening.

A hot airmass will continue the rest of today and on Wednesday
with  heat indices of 108 to 115. Heat advisories are in effect
for the forecast area and Wednesday, with a extreme heat watch
in effect for parts of the area Wednesday.

Given moderate transport wind speeds and elevated mixing
heights,  patchy to areas of high daytime dispersions are
expected today through Friday, especially along and north of the
I-10 corridor.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected
during  the next several mornings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures and record warm minimum
temperatures at our designated climate sites through Wednesday:

July 28:
KJAX: 104/1872   80/1885
KGNV: 100/2025   77/2014
KAMG: 100/2006   78/2014
KCRG: 100/2025   80/2014

July 29:
KJAX: 101/2025   80/1877
KGNV: 100/2025   79/2025
KAMG: 99/2025    77/2017
KCRG: 101/2016   79/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  98  74  95 /  10  30  40  30
SSI  81  99  79  94 /  10  70  40  40
JAX  77  98  77  95 /   0  60  60  60
SGJ  78  97  77  93 /  10  50  30  80
GNV  77  95  77  92 /   0  30  40  80
OCF  77  93  77  91 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-
     136-137-220-225-232-233-236-237-322-325-333-422-425-433-
     522-533-633.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ038-138-
     140-240-340.
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for GAZ153-154-162-163-165-166-264-350-364.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for GAZ132>136-
     149-151-152-250.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$