585
FXUS62 KJAX 281752
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
152 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal Flood Warnings Remain in Effect through Thursday Night
  along the coast, the Intracoastal Waterway, and the entirety
  of the St. Johns River basin.

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend.
  Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal Flooding within the St.
  Johns River Basin Continues into the Upcoming Weekend. High
  Surf Advisory through Thursday Night at the Northeast FL
  Beaches. High Risk for Rip Currents at all Area Beaches
  through the Upcoming Weekend. Major Beach Erosion around Times
  of High Tide through Friday. Small Craft Advisory for the
  Atlantic Waters through at least Friday. Gusty Northeasterly
  Winds Continue at Coastal Locations through Friday.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Coastal Flood Warnings Remain in Effect along the coast, the
  Intracoastal Waterway, and the Entirety of the St. Johns River
  basin.

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue. High Surf Advisory
  through Thursday Night at the Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk
  for Rip Currents at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming
  Weekend. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through
  Friday. Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic Waters through
  at least Friday. Gusty Northeasterly Winds Continue at Coastal
  Locations through Friday.

A dry airmass remains over the area with current GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery depicting PWATs from 0.75 to 1.0
inches across SE GA and 1.0 to 1.35 inches across NE FL. Not
expecting much in the way of showers aside from offshore showers
shifting towards coastal locations south of the JAX metro due to
the persistent breezy to gusty northeasterly onshore flow. With
the flow, streaks of lower stratus and stratocumulus clouds
continue to push onshore over NE FL locations. Otherwise,
daytime highs expected in the mid 70s to lower 80s with the
cooler temperatures along the coast thanks to the onshore flow.
By the evening hours, isolated to scattered showers are expected
to continue to push towards the coast of NE FL. Overnight Lows
in the lower to mid 60s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley
Region, while mid 60s to lower 70s across the rest of NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period: Thursday through Friday night

- Coastal hazards continue

Weakening high pressure will be centered to the north northeast
Thursday, as an inverted trough moves west across southern FL. The
gradient between these features will continue to provide elevated
flow across area waters. With the flow from the northeast, inland
areas will have less wind than closer to the coast. Convergence
associated with gradient between features will be strongest near the
NE FL coast, resulting in showers. Temperatures will be near
seasonal levels near the coast, but above average further inland
Thursday. The northeast flow will provide a wide range in
temperatures Thursday night, with lows over inland SE GA in the
upper 50s, and upper 60s over much of NE FL.

Another high will build to the northwest Friday, then north Friday
night, as weak inverted troughs move through the onshore flow. A few
showers will be expected across coastal NE FL due to the weak
troughs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period: Saturday through Wednesday

- High risk of rip currents continues

High pressure to the north, will move away toward the northeast on
Sunday, as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf.

This low will track across the area Sunday night, then to the north
northeast Monday through Tuesday.

The region will be between high pressure ridging to the northeast
and an area of low pressure to the west northwest.

Rain chances will increase Saturday night through Sunday in response
to this low. Lower shower chances are then expected for Monday
through Wednesday.

High temperatures will be near or little below seasonal average this
period. Lows will trend above average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
MVFR ceilings continue to filter across northeast FL terminals. Few
showers streaming in from offshore, keeping VCSH for CRG and SGJ.
North-northeasterly winds will remain close to or above 25 knots for
most TAF sites this afternoon. Winds expected to ease up during the
overnight hours over inland sites. Some showers possible near the
coast. Winds pick up once again around 12Z/13Z, with higher winds
along the coast by 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...


Strong high pressure situated over New England will continue to
wedge down the southeastern seaboard as it slowly shifts offshore
this afternoon. Meanwhile, weak low pressure situated near southeast
Florida will meander through Thursday before dissipating on Thursday
night and Friday. These two features will create gusty northeasterly
winds through Friday, keeping Small Craft Advisory conditions in
place throughout our local waters. Coastal troughing situated over
our near shore waters will remain in place through Saturday, with
this feature generating scattered to numerous showers this afternoon
for the waters from around St. Augustine southward, with this
activity then overspreading most of our local waters tonight.
Periods of isolated to widely scattered showers will then be
possible from Thursday through Sunday morning. Another strong high
pressure center building southeastward from New England and the Mid-
Atlantic states this weekend will result in breezy easterly winds
across our local waters, with another round of Small Craft Advisory
conditions possible as seas build. A disturbance aloft moving across
our area on Sunday and Monday may generate numerous showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories remain in
effect for the northeast FL beaches through Thursday night, where
breakers of 6 to 9 feet will prevail. Breakers of 3 to 6 feet will
prevail at the southeast GA beaches through Thursday. These
elevated, rough surf conditions will maintain a high risk of deadly
rip currents at all area beaches through the upcoming weekend, and
major beach erosion is likely to occur around times of high tide
during this extended duration onshore wind event.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated flow will continue between high pressure to the north and
an inverted trough to the north through Thursday. Another high will
build to the northwest then north Friday through Saturday. An area
of low pressure will track northeast across the area Sunday into
Monday. This low will then move to the northeast of area Tuesday.

The greatest chance for rain, along with thunderstorms, this period
will be over the weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Northeasterly winds will remain breezy to windy and will combine
with high astronomical tides due to today`s lunar perigee to
maintain moderate tidal flooding through Thursday along our local
Atlantic coast and within the Intracoastal Waterway (ICWW) and the
entirety of the St. Johns River basin. Water levels will generally
reach 2-3 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of
high tide through Thursday. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect
for coastal locations of southeast GA and northeast FL, in addition
to within the ICWW and St. Johns River basin through Thursday night.
Moderate tidal flooding may linger into the upcoming weekend within
the St. Johns River basin, with minor flooding potential continuing
around times of high tide along the Atlantic coast and within the
St. Johns River The long duration of this strong onshore wind event
will likely produce major beach erosion during each high tide cycle
through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  81  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  65  75  64  75 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  66  78  66  78 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  70  77  69  78 /  50  50  20  30
GNV  66  81  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  68  83  68  84 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-124-125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$