Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
312 FXUS62 KJAX 261719 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 119 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Hot & Humid Weather Continues Today: Heat Index 104-108. Heat Advisories Possible Early Next Week for Portions of Our Area - Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening TStorms Today & Monday. Strong Storms, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Locally Heavy Downpours Possible. Mainly along the I-95 and US-301 Highway Corridors between 3pm-9pm - Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Tues & Wed && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Strong Storms and Locally Heavy Downpours This Afternoon and Early Evening from I-95 to US Highway 301 Corridors - Still Hot and Humid with Heat Indices of 104-108F this afternoon Earlier start to convection overall today thanks to overall more moisture in place, with PWATs at the 12Z JAX sounding near 2.3 inches and analyses showing widespread 2+ inch values overall. This is despite a rather weak wedge of lower PWATs drifting southward across northeast FL as of 1630Z, with forecast soundings this afternoon and evening also showing pockets of drier air lingering aloft. This is likely the reason that hi-res guidance has backed off a bit with respect to convective coverage today, though still expecting overall numerous coverage across the area through the evening hours as a frontal boundary to our north continues to nudge southward through tonight. The combination of the usual sea breeze boundaries and added lift/dynamics with the front has resulted in the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) placing the entirety of the region in a marginal (level 1/5) risk for isolated severe cells today, with downbursts up to 50- 60 mph being the main hazard potential and perhaps some smaller hail as temps aloft are not considerably cold. The presence of some drier air pockets may also enhance downburst potential, especially across northeast FL. High temps will peak in the mid 90s for most this afternoon and evening, with earlier convection and cloud cover keeping areas from reaching heat advisory criteria, as heat indices peak "only" in the 103-107 range. Convection will overall wane after sunset tonight, though any lingering boundaries as well as the frontal boundary being positioned just north of southeast GA counties will likely keep some localized activity going through around 10pm to midnight. Otherwise warm and mild tonight with some lingering debris clouds as temps only drop into the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: -Below normal afternoon thunderstorm coverage, but any storms that develop could become strong. -Heat Advisories will likely be needed Monday and Tuesday afternoons. A broad upper level ridge centered to our south, combined with a trough passing to the north, will maintain weak steering flow through Tuesday. This persistent pattern, along with gradually decreasing moisture levels aloft, sets the stage for intensifying heat as shower and thunderstorm coverage diminishes daily. With limited large scale weather systems to trigger storms, sea breeze interactions will be the primary driver for afternoon activity. While overall thunderstorm coverage will be lower than normal, intense daytime heating and unstable air will support a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Monday`s activity will focus on northeast Florida and coastal southeast Georgia, while Tuesday sees a significant decrease in storm chances, with the primary focus shifting to north central Florida. One potential wildcard in the overnight forecast is the development of an upstream mesoscale convective system (MCS) over the Tennessee Valley or southern Appalachians. With northwesterly flow aloft, there is a low but non zero potential for an MCS to propagate southeast into portions of the forecast area Monday or Tuesday night. Most guidance weakens or dissipates upstream convection before it reaches our area, with the bulk of activity remaining north of the Altamaha River. However, the 12z HRRR hints at a scenario Monday evening where convection survives long enough to push south of the Altamaha River into the Georgia Gold Coast, warranting continued monitoring. Otherwise, confidence remains high in a dry overnight period, with the NBM maintaining near zero PoPs after 00z. High heat indices remain the primary concern. High temperatures will climb into the mid 90s on Monday, reaching the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday, with localized inland areas in southeast Georgia potentially touching 100F. Peak heat index values between 108 to 115F are expected each afternoon, particularly across inland northeast Florida. Consequently, Heat Advisories are highly probable for both days. Winds will remain light, shifting from west northwest on Monday morning to northerly or northeasterly behind the afternoon sea breeze. By Tuesday, light southwesterly flow will precede a cold front approaching southeast Georgia. Convection will diminish shortly after sunset each evening, with overnight lows offering little relief as they settle in the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: -Above normal afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage each day, with a few strong storms possible. -Heat Advisories likely needed Wednesday. A frontal boundary is forecast to settle near the Georgia and Florida border on Wednesday and remain nearly stationary through the end of the week. This stalled boundary will act as a focal point, interacting with deep tropical moisture and strong daytime heating to trigger widespread afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day. Storm coverage is expected to be numerous, particularly near and south of this boundary, marking a transition to a much more active weather pattern. Although shear is expected to remain weak, high instability will facilitate the development of strong to severe storms. The primary hazards with these storms will include damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours. Wednesday is expected to be the peak of the heat wave, with inland highs reaching the upper 90s to near 100F and heat indices potentially ranging from 107 to 115F. Increased cloud cover and storm activity may slightly temper temperatures from Thursday through Saturday, with highs returning to the lower to mid 90s. Even so, heat indices will regularly reach 105 to 110F, while warm overnight lows provide little relief from the high humidity and heat stress. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Convection beginning to initiate as of 1710Z, but currently not affecting any sites for now. Continued to leave VCTS as well as TEMPO groups for all terminals starting at 18Z as convection continues to gradually fire. Will continue to modify these groups accordingly throughout the afternoon and evening. Expecting areas of convection to linger through about 02-03Z, likely ending latest south and east of Duval terminals. No other significant operational concerns outside of any TSRA with winds around 6-9 knots and diurnal clouds at VFR range. No significant concerns tonight as well before SHRA and TSRA are likely to begin affecting area airfields towards the very end of the forecast period, with PROB30 groups likely to be added for tonight`s forecast update. && .MARINE... A nearly stationary frontal boundary over the Carolinas will drift south towards the Georgia waters through tonight, pushing the axis of Atlantic high pressure southward. The front will stall and essentially dissipate just north of area waters Monday, keeping a prevailing offshore wind flow through early next week, with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected across our local waters each day. A few stronger storms will be possible during the late afternoon hours, with briefly strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and torrential downpours. Another front will approach the waters by the middle of next week with offshore southwest winds increasing to near advisory levels. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Monday at Northeast FL and Southeast GA beaches due to afternoon sea breeze and surf/breakers around 2 feet or so. && .FIRE WEATHER... -Heat Advisories may be needed Monday through Wednesday. -Patchy high daytime dispersions rest of this afternoon, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The region will be between high pressure to the south and a boundary to the north through Tuesday. A frontal boundary will move into the region and stall Wednesday through the end of next week. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Heat Advisories may be needed Monday through Wednesday afternoons. Daily thunderstorm potential picks up midweek through the end of the week next week, which may become strong. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in and near storms. && .CLIMATE... Daily record high temperatures at our designated climate sites for early this week: July 28: KGNV: 100/2025 KAMG: 100/2006 KCRG: 100/2025 July 29: KJAX: 101/2025 KAMG: 99/9999 KCRG: 101/2016 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 74 96 75 / 50 40 10 0 SSI 94 77 93 79 / 60 40 20 0 JAX 96 75 95 76 / 60 50 40 0 SGJ 94 76 93 76 / 80 60 40 0 GNV 96 76 95 76 / 70 50 60 10 OCF 95 77 95 77 / 60 40 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$