725
FXUS62 KJAX 250541
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1241 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Rip Currents at All Area Beaches Today

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible between 4 PM and Midnight

- Widespread Inland Hard Freezes likely Monday Night through
  Wednesday Night. Dangerous Wind Chills Expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

The widespread, significant weather system bringing winter
precip/impacts to much of the southern and eastern US will bring
its influence to out doorstep Today in the way of rain and
embedded thunderstorms along the associated cold front.

An organizing gulf low will deepen as it rides northeastward toward
the southern Appalachians this morning. This will induce a strong
southerly wind and strong warm advection. Mixing within the warm
sector will potentially raise temps into the low 80s across NE FL
despite mostly cloudy skies.

Though it will be breezy and occasionally gusty, the overcast cloud
cover will limit the potential for strong gusts (40+ mph) with the
southerly low level speed max that will edge across GA late this
afternoon. Winds will likely be strongest across portions of I-95
and north-central FL where the skies may scatter out during the
afternoon allowing stronger winds, up to 35 mph, to reach the
surface.

Timing of the frontal squall will be in our favor with it reaching
the Ocmulgee/Altamaha rivers late in the afternoon as the sun begins
to set, limiting available surface-based instability. Despite the
diminished instability, sufficient deep shear and strong forcing
along the front will continue the line of showers with embedded
thunderstorms southeastward through the evening until it slowly
exits offshore by daybreak Monday. The primary concern with the
embedded thunderstorms will be strong winds which could be 40-50 mph
with the stronger embedded cells.

After the warm prefrontal day this afternoon, with highs in the 70s
and into the lower 80s for portions of NE FL, tonight`s temps will
begin on the warm side but begin to fall as the onset of the arctic
airmass pushes into the region, dropping temps in SE GA from the 60s
at 2 AM to the low/mid 40s by sunrise Monday (in a span of 5 hours).

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

A few showers will likely linger over southeastern areas through mid
to late Monday Morning, but otherwise decreasing cloud cover and
drying out throughout the day on Monday as a breezy northwesterly
wind picks up across the region. Looking at a general 10-20G25-30mph
across the region during the daytime hours, except a bit higher near
the immediate coast. Strong cold air advection will likely keep
temps from rising very much during the daylight Monday, if at all,
and "max" temperatures may technically occur at midnight the night
before for some. However, daytime highs looking like the 50s to low
60s over southeast GA and 60s to low 70s over northeast FL.

Winds subside over the interior Monday Night, though will remain a
bit breezy overall, especially at the coast and St. Johns River
Basin area. Widespread freeze/hard freeze conditions will be
expected inland, with a light freeze likely all the way towards the
northeast FL coast as well. Temps tumble to the 20s to near 30
inland and low 30s near the coast and St. Johns River. A Freeze
Watch has been issued for Monday Night and Tuesday Morning, with
Cold Weather Advisory conditions also possible by Tuesday Morning
with wind chills in the teens to low 20s likely. This product will
likely be issued for much of the area later today or early Monday.

Cool and dry conditions continue through Tuesday and Tuesday Night
as high pressure weakens and remains generally to the north and
west of the region. Despite mostly sunny skies, highs on
Tuesday will only top out in the 40s to near 50 over southeast
GA and low to mid 50s over northeast FL. Some high clouds coming
in Tuesday Night might hinder radiational cooling a bit, though
still looking like a freeze and widespread frost will be likely
for most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Another arctic front moves through the region on Wednesday, which
will essentially reinforce high pressure ridging extending into our
region from the northwest/north through at least Thursday. Yet
another weak front will likely pass through around Thursday Night
and Friday before the potential for yet another potent front,
possibly accompanied by a deep south storm system, affects our area.
Guidance is still having a fairly hard time resolving the evolution
of this frontal system and possible surface low, though given the
antecedent dry conditions this week and ongoing drought, have leaned
towards the drier end for now. Temps trend below climo for the long
term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Widespread IFR to LIFR low stratus will continue through improvements
begin as warm front lifts through the NE FL terminals between 10-
13z. Stratus will hold on longer at KSSI, not reaching the terminal
until the early afternoon. Breezy southerly winds will develop
behind the warm front with gusts peaking during the afternoon hours,
possible up to 30 knots at times. A cold front will bring a weakening
line of showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms across the
region this evening and overnight. Anticipate another period of IFR
conditions to redevelop again after 00z tonight ahead of the front.

&&

.MARINE...

Northeasterly winds will relax and turn southerly as a warm
front lifts across the waters this morning. Strong winds
offshore will continue Small Craft Advisory conditions through
tonight. A strong cold front passage will bring a chance for
thunderstorms across the waters tonight through Monday morning.
Cold northwesterly winds will lead to another period of Small
Craft Conditions Monday afternoon that will occur across all
locals waters. Offshore winds will begin to decrease Tuesday and
Wednesday before strengthening again Wednesday night with a dry
cold frontal passage.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continue today as elevated
surf around 4-6 feet continues at local beaches. Offshore winds
behind the incoming cold front will lower risk as surf
decreases through Monday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Patchy High Dispersions Today
- Patchy High Dispersions Across Southeast Georgia Monday

Warm front is lifting north of the are this morning, with a very
mild day expected amidst a breezy southwesterly flow. Despite some
cloud cover across much of the area and especially southeast GA,
dispersions will be good to high in some areas due to the breezy and
gusty conditions, as a general 10-20G30-35mph will be expected
across the area. A broken line of showers with some embedded
t`storms will move into interior southeast GA late this evening,
with weakening expected as it progresses southeastward through
tonight. A few strong to severe storms will be possible over inland
GA this evening, with gusty winds up to 40-60mph the main threat.

Winds shift northwesterly tonight as a cold front moves through the
area, with increasingly cool and dry conditions expected throughout
Monday as well as good to marginally high dispersions. Cool and
dry conditions are then expected through mid next week as high
pressure will be in control.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of fog are expected
tonight across north central FL. Frost and freeze potential returns
early next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near Record Highs Today, January 25...

Below are records for climate sites and year in which they occurred.

Record High Temperatures:

January 25:
KJAX: 83/2023
KGNV: 85/1950
KCRG: 81/2024

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  40  51  21 /  30  80  10   0
SSI  69  48  61  27 /   0  70  20   0
JAX  81  51  64  25 /   0  60  20   0
SGJ  80  57  69  31 /   0  40  20   0
GNV  82  54  65  27 /   0  70  20   0
OCF  83  58  67  28 /   0  60  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
     422-425-433-522-533-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
     364.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ450-452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$