383
FXUS62 KJAX 220630
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
230 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Increased Marine & Coastal Hazards This Weekend and Early Next
  Week. Dangerous Surf Zone, High Risk for Rip Currents will
  continue. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Within Portions of
  the St. Johns River Basin and Atlantic coast south of St
  Augustine today through Friday.

- Strong Northeasterly Winds Develop Friday Night Along the I-95
  Corridor. Moderate Tidal and Coastal Flooding Likely During
  the Upcoming Weekend. Gale Conditions Possible for the Local
  Atlantic Waters. Dangerous/High Surf Zone Conditions with a
  High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches This Weekend and
  Monday

- Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible this Weekend for Coastal Northeast
  FL

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- High Risk for Rip Currents
- Minor coastal flooding portions of NE FL

Broad high pressure system anchored to the north and subsident
conditions will continue to allow for clear skies and little sensible
weather other than pleasant afternoons and cool mornings. Excellent
radiational cooling early this morning will allow the lows to fall
into the mid to upper 40s for the Suwannee Valley / inland southeast
GA, and the lower to mid 50s for north central FL, while persistent
onshore flow keeps temps in the upper 50s to around 60 closer to the
coast.

Northeast to east flow expected again today with breezy conditions
toward the coast. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80 inland
and mid 70s toward the coast. Similar overnight lows for Thursday
night/early Friday...generally in the upper 40s to around 50 from
Suwannee Valley northward, and lower to mid 50s north central
FL, and given some onshore flow at the coast around 60 degrees
there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- A high risk for rip currents continues

Strong high pressure will build to the north this period. An
inverted trough is expected to develop east of the area Friday
night. The pressure gradient over the area will increase steadily
through the period due to strengthening high, then the addition of
the inverted trough later in the period. As the gradient tightens
winds will pick up. With the position of the high, the winds will be
onshore, and the increase in speed will be most noticeable near the
coast.

It will be dry through Friday, then convergence associated with the
inverted trough will bring a chance for showers to mainly coastal
areas.

Temperatures will be below average through Friday. With the increase
in flow across the coastal waters Friday night, temperatures will be
closer to average, and above closer to the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal hazards expected due to strong onshore flow Saturday
through Monday
- Potential for localized flooding in heavy rain bands this weekend
mainly east of I95

Strong high pressure will remain centered to the north, with
inverted troughing to the east over the weekend. The high will
slowly weaken, as it sinks south closer to the region early next
week. This pattern will result in a gusty onshore flow. Coastal
hazards are expected over the weekend into early next week, such as
rip currents, high surf, beach erosion and minor coastal flooding.
Due to convergence from inverted trough mainly coastal showers are
expected Saturday through Monday. A few coastal thunderstorms will
be possible Saturday. Localized flooding due to heavy rainfall will
be possible over the weekend, mainly east of I95.

The high will continue to weaken as it becomes centered more toward
the northeast during the middle part of next week. While the flow
will continue to be onshore, it will be weaker, so winds will trend
lighter. The chance for coastal showers will also decrease toward
mid week.

High temperatures will be below average throughout this period. Lows

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions to prevail this TAF period with only a few cumulus
over northeast FL this afternoon. Light northerly or variable
sfc winds early this morning except for about NNE 10 kt at SGJ.
North- northeast winds should pick up 8-12 kt after 14z for all
TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...

Through the weekend, high pressure ridge located to the north of the
area will build while a trough of low pressure develops just south
of the Bahamas. This will continue to support hazardous marine
conditions across most of the area waters through tonight. As the
pressure gradient tightens further on Friday, strengthening
northeast winds and building seas are expected and will continue
into the weekend and early next week. Northeast winds to Gale force
may develop as early as Friday night and become likely for the
weekend into early next week. A surge of moisture this weekend will
also support elevated chances for moderate to heavy showers which
lasts from Saturday through Monday.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents continues much of this week
and weekend given the elevated surf conditions and onshore flow.
Elevated surf will continue to be a problem the next few days for
any swimmer entering the surf zone. Looking ahead, high surf
advisory looks probable for the weekend as northeast flow increases
with surf estimated to reach upwards of 7 to 10 feet by Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Inland Rh Values Fall To Around 30 Inland Today
- Inland Se Ga Rh Values Fall To Around 30 Inland Se Ga Friday
- Patchy High Dispersions Friday Through Sunday

High pressure to the north will gradually strengthen over the next
few days. An inverted trough will develop east of the area over the
weekend. Elevated onshore flow is expected through much of this next
week. Mainly coastal showers are forecast over the weekend,
which may be heavy, and produce localized flooding.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected the next few days. A few coastal thunderstorms are
possible Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Satilla River at Atkinson is slowly coming down and is now just
below 14 ft, and is forecast to reach 13 ft by Monday night
into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Recent observations show minor flooding still occurring from
Downtown Jacksonville upstream/southward to Satsuma. Peak water
levels have been from 1.6 to 1.9 ft MHHW in the past 24 hours, while
from Southbank/Main Street to Dames Point and Mayport peaked just
below 1.6 ft so just below minor at this time. The combination of
departures of 1 to 1.5 ft and latest PETSS guidance show water
levels pushing a little higher today through Friday and still in
minor category. Therefore, the advisory is being continued for the
current area.

Looking ahead to the weekend, another surge of northeast winds and
the full moon on Sunday/Monday Oct 25-26 will push water levels up
further, especially for the coast. Confidence is growing for
moderate tidal flooding (up to 2.5 ft MHHW) and coastal flood
watches/warnings may be needed. Some tidal stations may reach low-
end moderate flooding as early as the Saturday morning high tide,
but Sunday and Monday are when the best chances of moderate tidal
flooding would occur.

At the beaches, minor beach erosion will continue the next couple of
days especially at times of high tide due to the rough surf. As the
astronomical tides increase later this week and over the weekend,
the combination of the increased surf and water levels will lead to
higher beach erosion potential. This potential looks higher than the
prior northeast wind event on Oct 17th-18th.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  48  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  75  57  70  60 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  77  53  73  58 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  76  60  75  67 /   0   0   0  40
GNV  80  52  77  57 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  80  54  78  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for FLZ038-125-
     132-137-138-225-325-333-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Friday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Friday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ452-
     454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$