149
FXUS62 KJAX 251745
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
145 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Nor`easter Conditions through Saturday. Life-
  threatening Rip Currents and Surf Zone Conditions. Minor Tidal
  Flooding Today and Saturday for the Atlantic Coast. Elevated
  tides in the St Johns River through the Weekend. Minor Beach
  Erosion Possible through Saturday. Small Craft Advisories
  through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

-Potential for coastal flooding around times of high tide along the
Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River Basin

-Elevated onshore winds and dangerous rip current/surf conditions

Gusty northeasterly winds continue to be on a downward trend through
today, but we still expect wind gusts around 20-25 mph along the
east coast and St. Johns River Basin. Heavy cloud cover this morning
and dry, northerly steering flow is keeping high temperatures in the
70s to low 80s today, with pleasant dewpoints in the 50s to 60s.
Tonight, low temperatures will fall into the low 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Minor Tidal Flooding Likely within the St. Johns River Basin.

- High Risk of Rip Currents this weekend

- Much Cooler and Drier Conditions Expected

Winds will begin to relax over the weekend as the sharp gradient in
response to the strong Nor`easter low pressure system begins to
relax locally as weak high pressure develops over the region. A
strong and very dry northwesterly aloft will bringing wall-to-wall
sunshine through Saturday. Though winds slacken, lingering onshore
breeziness and elevated surf will continue a high risk of strong rip
currents through the weekend. Cannot rule out continue minor tidal
flooding along the banks of the St Johns river through the weekend
due to lingering effects of the reverse flow event.

A stable airmass remains in place through Sunday, though increasing
moisture and shortwave rounding the base of the broad upper trough
will spread bouts of cirrus overhead.

After a few pleasantly cool fall-like days, temperatures will begin
to rebound back toward low 80s Saturday and then the mid 80s for
highs on Sunday. As winds relax, low temperatures will fall into the
mid 50s under clear skies but then warm Sunday as warming
southwesterly flow develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Minor Tidal Flooding potentially lingering within the St Johns
river through early next week.

- Return to warmer temperatures and increasing rain chances during
the mid to late week period.

Initially dry weather conditions will be in place on Monday with
chances for showers and storms gradually increasing mid to late week
as high pressure ridging from out of the east adjusts the prevailing
flow to become more southerly, resulting in the drier air over the
region being gradually replaced by more moist maritime air from out
of the south by the latter part of the week. Temperatures will
experience a warning trend through the week, rising to be above the
seasonal average by the end of the period with max temps rising into
the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.MARINE...

Low pressure strengthening to the northeast today will track
further to the north through the end of the weekend as high
pressure builds southward from the eastern Great Lakes into the
southeast states. The gradient between high pressure and a front
to the south trailing the low to the northeast will keep
elevated winds and seas over the area waters through tonight
before slowly diminishing Saturday into Saturday night,
resulting in enhanced northeasterly winds and waves lasting
through Tonight. Small Craft conditions for the offshore waters
will continue through Saturday evening. These conditions ease
Saturday night into Sunday as high pressure weakens and the low
pressure area lifts further away from the area.

Rip Currents: There will be several days of strong and dangerous rip
currents with an elevated risk through the upcoming weekend.
Additionally, elevated north northeasterly winds will continue to
produce breakers up to 5-9 feet through this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Over the weekend a dry airmass will push across the area and lower
afternoon humidity to at least 30% for several inland districts
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Gusty northerly surface and transport
winds will continue Today area-wide, with decreasing cloud cover and
rising mixing heights yielding good daytime dispersion values.
Surface and transport winds will then shift to northeasterly on
Saturday, with breezy conditions persisting at coastal locations.
Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast area-wide. Winds
will become light and turn westerly through Sunday. Warming
temperatures and rising humidity levels are expected through next
week with winds favoring the diurnal Atlantic sea breeze regime.

Fog Potential...Significant fog formation unlikely the next several
days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Astronomical tides will continue rising through the start of the
weekend due to the upcoming Full "Harvest" Moon that occurs on
Saturday. Breezy north-northeasterly onshore winds along coastal
locations will persist through this evening and combine with these
increasing astronomical tides to create minor coastal flooding along
the Atlantic coast. Water levels have already peaked during high
tide between 1.5 - 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) from
Thursday evening`s and Friday morning`s high tides and are forecast
to peak again near 2 feet MHHW for the upcoming high tide cycles
this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  82  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  62  81  61  84 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  59  81  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  65  81  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  59  83  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  61  85  58  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ125-132-
     137-225-325-633.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
     FLZ138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Saturday night for GAZ154-
     166.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ452-454-
     470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$