048
FXUS62 KJAX 280405
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1205 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding for Atlantic beachfront locations and St.
  Johns River Basin

- Isolated Thunderstorm Activity Returns Mid to Late Week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Moderate rip current risk at Atlantic beaches

- Minor flooding will continue along the St. Johns River Basin
during times of high tide through this evening

Dry west to northwest steering flow this morning becomes southwest
this afternoon into tonight which will lead to a slight increase in
moisture with PWATs reaching into the 1.2 to 1.5 inch range across
NE FL, but remaining around 1 inch across SE GA. This combined with
diurnal heating and inland moving sea breezes across inland NE FL
may trigger a brief late day shower along the I-75 corridor near
GNV/OCF but otherwise expect dry conditions to continue under mostly
clear to partly sunny skies. Max temps will rebound to above normal
levels with highs in the upper 80s/near 90F inland and lower/middle
80s along the Atlantic Coast behind the East Coast sea breeze. Not
as cool tonight with lows in the lower 60s inland SE GA and
mid/upper 60s inland NE FL and around 70F along the Atlantic Coast.
A slight increase in low level moisture allowing for some shallow,
patchy dense fog to develop around sunrise across inland SE GA and
the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period (Tuesday through Wednesday night):

- Moderating temperatures, and slowly increasing moisture this period

Surface high pressure will be centered to the northeast of the
region this period, yielding a warm and moist onshore flow. As
moisture increases, precipitation chances will slowly increase from
Tuesday into Wednesday from south to north.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period (Thursday through Sunday):

- Potential for strong storms with heavy rainfall increases this
period

High pressure will remain centered to the northeast through Friday
continuing the moist onshore flow, with precipitation chances
from day to day, with temperatures remaining above average.

An inverted trough, or perhaps a low center is expected to develop
over the central Gulf coast over the weekend, with a frontal
boundary extending east from it, across the local area. Continued
onshore flow, coupled with frontal convergence will yield above
average precipitation chances through the weekend, with
temperatures running near to a little below average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions with light and variable winds through the period.
Patchy MVFR fog will be possible between 08-11Z at VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure will shift over the region early this week with
prevailing west to southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the
afternoon nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High
pressure will shift east of the waters midweek with southerly winds,
turning easterly in the afternoon over the nearshore waters from
seabreeze circulation. Increasing moisture will bring a return of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters by late
in the week.

Rip Currents: Long period swells and elevated surf heights continue
to subside down into the 2-3 ft range today and expect a solid
Moderate Risk of Rip currents through Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Minrh Percentages In The 20S North Of I10 Today
- Patchy High Daytime Dispersions Inland Thursday
- Patchy Low Daytime Dispersions Saturday Through Monday

High pressure will be northeast of the region through Friday,
leading to a prolonged period of onshore flow, and increasing
chances for mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. An area of low
pressure may form near the central Gulf toward the weekend,
stretching a frontal zone east across the local area. This boundary
would enhance chances for convection over the weekend.

Fog Potential...Patchy fog Suwannee valley this morning, with patchy
fog across inland areas Tonight.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical higher than normal tides will continue into this
evening with Minor Flooding occurring during times of high tide
within the St. Johns River Basin and along the NE FL Atlantic
coast/ICWW. Water levels peak during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet
above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) through this evening and have
extended the Coastal Flood Advisory through this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  61  90  67 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  85  71  84  74 /  10  10   0  10
JAX  90  67  89  69 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  88  69  87  72 /  10  10  20   0
GNV  89  67  88  68 /  20  10  30   0
OCF  89  68  90  70 /  20  10  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$