030
FXUS62 KJAX 280138
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
938 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 934 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Few widely scattered showers and T`storms are fading along highway
301 over northeast florida this evening, mostly focused over Marion
county along the Ocklawaha river between Ocala and Ocala National
Forest where localized 1-2 inch rainfall amounts have fallen.

For later this evening, have been monitoring model trends for the
development of a weak low across the waters after midnight. While
18Z GFS and the 12Z ECMWF indicated this weak low developing over
the NE FL waters placing scattered to numerous coastal showers
onto our coast late tonight, the trends from the HRRR have been
shifting the placement of heavier showers and the low itself
further eastward away from the coast with the bulk of heavier
showers over the offshore waters. Have maintained scattered shower
chances over night along the beaches and isolated chances to
along the I-95 corridor, but thus far the confidence in very low
for heavier rainfall amounts exceeding 2 inches from convergent
rain showers working onshore, but up to 1-2 inches are possible
from some showers managing to move onshore overnight into the
predawn hours of Thursday that could lead to ponding of water on
coastal community roadways. Otherwise, Lows will be in the upper
60s across inland SE GA and the low 70s along the SE GA coast into
inland NE FL with mid/upper 70s along the NE FL coast.

Thursday, onshore NE flow will push the Atlantic seabreeze well
inland during the afternoon with greatest showers and T`storm
coverage across NE FL FL where higher moisture will be along with
greater cloud cover compared to SE GA as the front to the south
crawls northward into north central FL by the afternoon. Mainly
locally heavy rainfall and frequent lighting are the expected
hazards, but an isolated T`storm may produce wind gusts to 40-50
mph. Highs will be in the upper 80s along the coast to low 90s
over inland NE FL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...through Tonight...

Per the latest analysis, surface high pressure is currently building
eastward across the Ohio River valley, positioning it to the
north of the area and setting up a northeasterly flow locally. A
very tight moisture gradient also resides across southern GA into
northern FL where precipitable water values increase from one inch
to nearly 2 inches along the Atlantic coast. Deeper moisture over
the coastal waters will be advected inland by the northeast flow
and by the Atlantic sea breeze. Convergence along the moisture
gradient and sea breeze will focus chances for isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms along the First Coast from Camden
county south to Flagler county this afternoon. Expect inland
progression with isolated showers and storms pushing toward the
I-75 corridor toward sunset but coverage should dwindle due to the
lingering drier air there.

This evening a weak circulation will attempt to organize along
the interface of the sea breeze remnants and a stalled frontal
zone that will slowly lift northward tonight as steering flow
veers southerly. Lift aloft and lingering instability should
result in scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm development
late this evening which may persist well into the overnight hours.

The confidence is low on precise location, there will be
potential for banding showers along coastal areas which may lead
to flooding issues during the overnight hours, especially at the
NE FL beaches. Among the hiRes guidance, the latest HREF run is
depicting around 30% probability of 3" and 50-70% probability of
1" between midnight and sunrise. A reasonable worst case would be
isolated pockets up to 4" of rain during the predawn hours, which
could occur anywhere from Flagler Beach north to Kingsland GA.
Given the lack of rainfall yesterday and the limited nature of the
convection today, the current thinking is to hold off on any
local Flash Flood Watches.

Otherwise, temps will build to the low 90s inland this afternoon and
stay in the upper 80s closer to the coast. With shallow moisture
being pushed farther inland by the sea breeze this afternoon the
overnight lows won`t be as cool as this morning but a few areas in
the interior of SE GA may dip into the upper 60s again tonight.
Elsewhere, lows will span the low/mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Frontal boundary across Central Florida will start to nudge
northward tonight and Thursday, but especially on Friday and
Friday Night which will set up a much more unsettled weekend. As
this process takes place, deeper moisture will start to fill into
most of the area Thursday and especially Friday, and combined with
several pieces of weak shortwave energy rotating around the base
of an upper trough just north of the region will increase
chances/coverage of convection through the rest of the work week.
The first shortwave impulse Thursday and Thursday Night may induce
a weak low to form offshore southeast GA on before quickly pulling
away to the northeast. This low is not expected to have any
tropical-like characteristics, though could help to induce some
coastal showers as well as additional lift/convergence for diurnal
convection, as well as some coastal/offshore showers into Thursday
Night.

A more robust impulse swings southeastward across
Alabama/Mississippi on Friday and pivots eastward across south GA
through Saturday Morning. Depending on the exact timing of this
feature, it could interact with the usual diurnal sea breeze and
frontal zone to enhance shower/t`storm activity further on Friday,
especially across southeast GA. Early forecast soundings suggest
500mb temps around -7 to -8C and some weak shear as high as 20-25
knots, and therefore this will have to be monitored over the next
24-36 hours reference stronger storm potential, if all of the
ingredients come together. The front and shortwave may once again
continue chances for some showers and isolated t`storms overnight
Friday Night, especially closer the coast. Highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s will be expected inland Thursday, closer to the mid 80s
closer to the coast with northeasterly flow. After lows in the
upper 60s to mid 70s Friday Morning, max temps will be a bit lower
Friday with more cloud cover and convective coverage: mainly in
the mid to upper 80s area-wide with similar lows Saturday Morning
as compared to Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Active weather will continue through at least the weekend thanks
to the same frontal boundary remaining nearly stalled across the
area, wobbling slightly north and south through the weekend as
high pressure stays situated to the north/northeast. Periods of
showers and t`storms, enhanced diurnally, will be expected through
the weekend, which also could open up a higher potential for
locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding thanks to the "waves" of
showers and thunderstorms. The WEather Prediction Center (WPC)
does place the area under a marginal risk (1/5) for excessive
rainfall, which may change over the coming days pending the exact
position of the frontal zone. Long range guidance starts to
diverge a bit for the start of the next work week, though early
indications are generally for a downward trend in PoPs as the base
of the upper trough sinks further into the southeast states and
tries to pull in some drier air from the north/northwest. As of
now, looks as though northeast FL will have the highest coverage
for PoPs early next week as the frontal boundary sinks further
south and a ridge of high pressure tries to build in from the
north. Temperatures trend near to slightly below normal during
this more active period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

The 00Z TAF period will start with a few widely scattered T`storms
over northeast florida nearing the vicinity of GNV and VQQ through
02Z with northeasterly winds 5-10 knots. The northeast winds will
subside inland to variable under 5 knots while staying 5-10 knots
at the coast overnight. A weak low should develop just offshore
of the northeast Florida coast late tonight with more organized
coastal showers potentially coming onshore at SGJ and even CRG
after 06Z while MVFR low stratus possible inland at GNV and VQQ
from 09Z to 14Z.

Thursday, the cold front will work a little northward into north
central FL with onshore northeasterly flow 5-10 knots inland and
around 10 knots at the coast. More cloud cover expected south
of SSI into the northeast florida TAF sites, but should remain
VFR from late morning into early afternoon as cloud bases rise
from 2.5 kft to 3.5-4.0 kft. By 17Z, seabreeze on the Atlantic
side will work inland from SSI and SGJ and push well inland with
showers and isolated T`storm activity as it works inland and
encounters strong heating. Have PROB30 groups for the northeast
florida sites for MVFR visibility restrictions in stronger
T`storms as higher moisture will be nearer to the front slowly
working northward from central FL, timing 18-22Z near the coast
and 20-24Z inland at GNV as the seabreeze progress further inland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  89  68  85 /   0  20  10  30
SSI  76  86  76  85 /  20  30  10  40
JAX  73  89  73  88 /  20  50  10  60
SGJ  75  89  74  87 /  40  60  30  60
GNV  73  91  72  89 /  10  60  10  50
OCF  73  91  72  89 /  10  60  10  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$