510
FXUS62 KJAX 151154
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
754 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 754 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 16Z. Showers and thunderstorms will begin developing after
16Z along sea breeze boundaries that will progress inland during
the afternoon hours, with the Gulf coast sea breeze being dominant
and faster moving, possibly bringing impacts to the GNV terminal
as early as 18Z. Thunderstorms should then impact the Duval County
terminals and SGJ late this afternoon, with activity likely not
arriving at SSI until after 21Z. Colliding mesoscale boundaries
along the I-95 corridor late this afternoon may allow convection
to continue through around 02Z, especially at SSI. TEMPO groups
were used at each terminal this afternoon through early this
evening, with brief wind gusts up to 30 knots and IFR conditions
possible within heavier storms. We will attempt to narrow the
focus of thunderstorm activity at the regional terminals for the
18Z TAF package. VFR conditions should then prevail after 03Z,
with periods of IFR visibilities likely during the predawn hours
at VQQ. Southerly surface winds will increase to 5-10 knots
towards 14Z, followed by shifting surface winds as sea breezes
progress inland and thunderstorms develop this afternoon.
Southeasterly surface winds should increase to 10-15 knots at the
SSI and SGJ coastal terminals after 16Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Mid and high level clouds still persist south of a line from near
Gainesville to St Augustine into north central and central FL for
a few more hours early this morning where late evening showers and
T`storms persisted past midnight over west central FL. Patchy,
shallow ground fog is possible in a few locations. Temperatures
in the low to mid 70s will hold through sunrise.

Deep layer ridging will extend from the Atlantic into central and
southern FL and the adjacent Gulf waters with a slight nudge to
the north as a weak trough lifts from the central Appalachians
to the Mid Atlantic. This will allow for southwest flow aloft to
become more west southwesterly in the mid levels during the day.
This will push the Gulf seabreeze in early with showers and a
few T`storms shifting across north central FL into the NE FL coast
by midday and kicking off scattered to numerous T`storms along
the Atlantic seabreeze confined near the east coast. Conditions
in place will again support isolated strong T`storms to form
that will produce wind gusts 40-50 mph, frequent lightning, and
heavy rainfall rates with locally heavy rainfall amounts of up
to 2-4 inches potentially east of highway 301. This is supported
by HREF neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 3 inches of rain
up to 30 percent along the coastal counties. T`storms will wane
as they shift into the Atlantic waters by midnight with mid and
high level clouds slowly clearing after midnight. Light southwest
winds 5-10 mph will turn south to southeasterly at the beaches
this afternoon.

Daytime highs will be in the low 90s with peak heat indices up to
100-105 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s away from
the coast and mid 70s at the coast and near the St Johns river.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Low to mid level ridge will slowly work northward into the area on
Monday and mean deep layer flow will remain south to southwest at
about 10 kt. PWATs remain healthy around 1.75 to 2 inches. NBM
guidance shows numerous to widespread showers and storms. Given
the influence of the mid level ridge and some drying noted in the
mid levels, will lean toward scattered to numerous showers and
storms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Initial activity will
likely form along the I-75 corridor. Peak heating and progression
of the west coast sea breeze, and the later forming east coast
sea breeze should be helpful for additional convective development.
A few stronger storms are possible with heavy rainfall and gusty
winds. Some of the stronger storms will be in the late afternoon
over the eastern zones where the airmass will already be primed
with instability. Mon night, isolated to scattered convection
should dissipate gradually through the evening hours.

Tuesday, mid level ridge will be across north central FL and guidance
has been fairly consistent showing mid level drying working in
and some subsidence aloft. This should lead to lower rain chances
so will have POPs capped at 30-50 percent. It is possible this may
even be a little generous. With sfc ridge closer to the area and
weaker southwest flow, the area of best convergence will shift a
little further inland toward Highway 301 as the east sea breeze
inland progression will be improved. Tuesday night, mainly
isolated convection in the evening before dissipating overnight.

Highs will be trending a little higher Monday to Tuesday with
lower to mid 90s anticipated by Tuesday. Max heat indices likely
up to near 100-105. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

High pressure ridge at the sfc and aloft will be located across
northern and central FL Wed and Thu with flow from the south and
southwest. PWATs remain near or below average and temps at 500 mb
will be above average. The subsidence from the ridge and lower
moisture in the mid levels will result in near or below average
rain chances both days.

A mid level trough will drop into the region by Thursday night
into Friday with an associated cool front moving into central GA.
A pre-frontal trough will pivot southward into the forecast area.
A slight cooling of temps aloft and an increase in deep moisture
will help boost rain chances Friday and Saturday, with the weak
trough likely laying over or near the forecast area on Saturday.
For now, will cap POPs at about 50-60 percent given the uncertainty
at this time range on moisture availability and mesoscale features.

Max temps expected in the lower to mid 90s, with lows in the
lower to mid 70s or slightly above average this period. Heat index
values may rise a bit further after Wed, with values of up to
around 107 on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Bermuda high pressure will be centered to the east into next week,
keeping winds generally out of the south. Each day, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the coast and nearshore waters before drifting eastward over the
offshore waters by early evening. Seas will be 2-3 feet nearshore
and 3-4 feet today into Monday and then resume to 2-3 feet across
the waters for much of next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents are in effect today
and Monday for all area beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  72  91  73 /  50  20  50  20
SSI  90  75  90  76 /  50  40  50  20
JAX  93  73  93  74 /  70  30  60  20
SGJ  91  74  92  74 /  70  20  60  20
GNV  93  72  93  73 /  70  20  60  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  70  20  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$