141
FXUS62 KJAX 271140
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
740 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Local Beaches Today

- Minor Tidal Flooding for Atlantic beachfront locations and
  along the St Johns river basin

- Isolated Thunderstorm Activity Returns Mid to Late week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- High rip current risk and elevated surf at Atlantic beaches

- Minor flooding will continue along the St. Johns River Basin
during times of high tide through this evening

Dry air mass will remain in place with a westerly steering flow in
place in the low levels, while higher clouds will push in aloft.
Despite the filtered sunshine, expect Max temps to return closer to
normal levels in the middle 80s. Light and variable winds inland,
with an East Coast sea breeze development during the afternoon hours
pushing inland to the I-95/US-17 corridors, but not enough moisture
aloft for any shower activity. Cooler than normal overnight lows
will continue tonight in the dry air mass with lows in the mid/upper
50s inland SE GA, lower 60s inland NE FL and mid/upper 60s along the
Atlantic Coast. Some shallow, patchy dense fog possible around
sunrise across inland areas, but dense fog headlines are not
expected due to the dry air mass in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period (Monday through Tuesday night):

- Moderating temperatures, and slowly increasing moisture this period

A frontal zone will extend south across the southeastern US Monday
through Tuesday morning, then push to the south through Tuesday
night, as an area of high pressure builds to the north northeast.

Drier air will remain in place across area Monday, but moisture will
begin to increase across NE FL due to flow from the southwest.
Monday is forecast to be a dry with highs generally rising into the
upper 80s. A few spots could get to 90. On Monday night, the dry
weather will continue, with lows ranging from around 60 over inland
SE GA to the mid to upper 60s over NE FL, due to position of the
lingering front near the GA/FL line.

On Tuesday, the front will largely dissipates as it moves to the
south, and high pressure builds to the north northeast. Moisture
will begin to return as it wraps around the high, but dry weather is
expected to continue. Highs on Tuesday, will again be above average
with readings around 90, away from the immediate coast fairly
common.

Tuesday night will be a dry night, with the onshore flow and
increased lower level moisture keeping lows closer to seasonal
levels in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period (Wednesday through Saturday):

- Increasing chances for convection each day this period

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east northeast
Wednesday through Friday. This will result in a warm and moist
onshore flow. With this pattern, a gradual increase in precipitation
chances is expected with with scattered activity across area
Friday.

A low pressure area is expected to move toward the central Gulf
coast Saturday, with a frontal zone extending east across the area
from this feature. Due to continued moist onshore flow, and
convergence associated with this feature, precipitation chances
will be scattered to numerous.

Temperatures will trend above seasonal averages this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
VFR conds with light W winds becoming SSE later this afternoon in
the wake of the Atlantic sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...


Lingering elevated combined seas and swells from a departing storm
system will continue Small Craft Advisory headlines this morning
over the offshore Northeast Florida Coastal waters. Otherwise, high
pressure will shift over the region Today and Monday with prevailing
west to southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the afternoon
nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High pressure
will shift east of the waters midweek with southerly winds, turning
easterly in the afternoon over the nearshore waters from seabreeze
circulation. Increasing moisture will bring a return of scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters by midweek.

Rip Currents: Long period swells, and elevated surf heights up to 4
to 6 feet will continue high risk of rip currents today. Long period
swells will slowly subside early this week with a likely return to
Moderate Risk of Rip currents on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

     MINRH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT TODAY, MID 20S OVER SE GA
- Monday, And Around 30 Over Se Ga Tuesday
- Patchy Inland High Dispersions Wednesday And Thursday

A frontal zone extending from a low off the coast of the
northeastern US will be over area through Tuesday morning. High
pressure will then build to the northeast Tuesday afternoon. The
high will gradually become centered more toward the east
northeast Wednesday through Friday. Moisture will increase this
period, bringing more seasonal levels of precipitation chances
toward late week.

Fog Potential...Significant fog is not expected this morning.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical higher than normal tides will continue Today and will
continue Minor Flooding during times of high tide within the St.
Johns River Basin and have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory
through this evening.Water levels peak during high tide between 1.5
- 2 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) Today and may need to
be extended into Monday with the next forecast package.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record low temperatures are possible at a few of our designated
climate sites in northeast and north central FL during the weekend:

Sunday, September 27:
KJAX: 54/1940
KGNV: 53/1940
KCRG: 57/1982

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  84  66  86  68 /   0  10   0   0
JAX  86  62  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  84  63  87  69 /   0  10   0   0
GNV  86  61  89  65 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  87  60  90  67 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for FLZ124-138-233-
     333.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ125-
     132-137-225-325-633.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$