494
FXUS62 KJAX 081759
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
159 PM EDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Today Most Local Beaches. High Risk Wednesday
 All Local Beaches. Elevated Rip Current Risk through Thursday

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Tuesday to Sunday. Main
Hazards: Locally Heavy Rain, Lightning & Gusty Winds to 40 mph

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Highlights Through Tonight:

- Breezy onshore/easterly winds today

- Passing gusty showers & inland mainly afternoon storms

- High Risk for Rip Currents Southeast GA and most Northeast FL
  Beaches & Elevated Tides

High pressure to the north will shift to the NC/VA coast through
this afternoon and early evening as a coastal trough continues to
develop to the east. Still expecting showers to gradually increase
in coverage to more scattered coverage through the course of the
afternoon as moist low level onshore flow and lift due to the trough
and coastal convergence combine and produce some thin bands of
showers that will shift onshore the SE GA and NE FL coast inland WSW
to I-75. Strong heating will allow low level instability with CAPE
exceeding more than 2,000 J/kg of CAPE across Northeast FL south of
I-10 and near I-75. Breezy ENE flow will interact with a pinned Gulf
seabreeze along the nature coast and a lingering front near to just
south of north central FL, producing scattered thunderstorms
coverage from Gainesville to St Augustine southward into Marion
county.

Breezy winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph expected along the coast
into the St Johns river while further inland decreasing to 8-12 mph
with gusts to 20 mph. A mix of sun and clouds from the occasional
onshore moving coastal showers will limit highs to the mid 80s along
the coast, upper 80s along I-95, and the low 90s well inland near I-
75 and inland SE GA.

Tonight, showers will continue off and on along the SE GA coast with
scattered coastal showers moving onshore the immeidate Northeast FL
coast. Lows will fall to the low/mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to
near 80 along the coast. Winds will become easterly as the coastal
trough shifts to the SE GA coast and the high to the north moves to
the northeast off the VA/NC coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

The stalled front over central Florida will weaken and lift
northward, behind it, steering flow will shift southerly, bringing
in higher PWAT values above 2.0". The southeasterly winds will allow
the Atlantic sea breeze to push inland and interact with the Gulf
sea breeze further inland, with numerous showers and storms forecast
for Wednesday afternoons and evening. The stronger onshore surface
winds on Wednesday will bring in showers and isolated storms near
the coast, spreading inland throughout the day. Thursday, the Gulf
sea breeze will be able to dominate a little more, enhancing storm
potential closer to I-95 and the east coast. Both days there will be
an isolated strong storm threat with boundary collisions, gusty
winds as the primary hazard, but we will also continue to see the
heavy rainfall/localized flooding potential. Highs will generally be
in the mid to upper 80s along the Atlantic coast, and lower 90s
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances and Locally Heavy Rainfall Potential

Southwesterly flow strengthens Friday and Saturday ahead of an
incoming cold front from the north that is forecast to stall and
fizzle out over central Georgia this weekend. Precipitation chances
remain high (50-75%) over the region Friday and Saturday, again
prompting the isolated flooding risk as well. Storm chances trend
downward Sunday and Monday, with the highest coverage expected over
north central Florida both days. High temperatures will be the mid
to upper 80s along the Atlantic coast, and lower 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings are expected through the afternoon
hours and again tonight as a coastal trough to the east brings in
periodic showers onshore with chances for thunderstorms inland at
GNV. East northeast winds 12-15 knots will prevail at the coast and
JAX sites with gusts to 20-25 knots while less breezy inland 10-12
knots with gusts to near 20 knots. Have VCSH for all sites this
afternoon with some MVFR ceilings as times as the coastal showers
move onshore. Have PROB30 groups for TSRA now only at at GNV and SGJ
while PROB30 groups for SHRA in place through 23-24Z at all other
sites. A lull in showers is expected after 23Z inland, but enough
probability for SHRA and MVFR ceilings along the coast for portions
of the late overnight hours as winds become more easterly 5-10 knots
st the coast and trend light and variable inland under 5 knots.

Expect SHRA to prevail at SSI after 13Z Wednesday morning with VCSH
coverage elsewhere except further inland GNV as the coastal trough
moves onshore the Southeast Georgia coast before weakening later
Wednesday. Easterly winds will resume around 10 knots at the coast
and 5-8 knots inland.

&&

.MARINE...


A coastal trough developing today will persists through this evening
into Wednesday morning with waves of gusty showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Elevated winds and seas will bring Exercise caution
conditions to the waters north of St Augustine through this late
this evening. Winds will become easterly Wednesday morning and
gradually lessen as the trough begins to weaken by late Wednesday
Night as high pressure builds northeast of the region. The high will
then extend across the Florida peninsula Thursday with southerly
winds and a return of southwest winds Friday into the weekend with
the afternoon east coast sea breeze.

Rip Currents: Onshore ENE winds strengthen today with building
surf. With elevated ENE wind surge over the waters, the high rip
current risk includes southeast GA and northeast FL beaches
down the St. Johns county coast. Flagler county remains under a
Moderate rip current risk today. Surf heights increase to 2-4 ft
through the evening. High rip current risk likely for all local
beaches Wednesday due to persistent onshore flow and elevated
surf.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from thunderstorm outflow influence, there is no significant
fire weather forecasted at this time.

A stalled front over southern Florida will lift north through NE FL
and SE GA through Thursday. Easterly winds will be favored through
Wednesday, shift southerly Thursday, and then southwesterly by
Friday. There will be higher chances for rain and thunderstorms
inland through Thursday before the end-of-the-week wind shift
focuses scattered to numerous thunderstorms along and east of
Highway 301. Moderate to Good Dispersion is expected each day.

Fog Potential: Breezy to gusty outflow winds possible beneath and in
the vicinity of passing thunderstorms. Significant fog development
is not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Coastal water levels begin to increase this week with the approach
of the New Moon on Sept 11th and breezy onshore easterly winds late
Tonight through Wednesday, with the peak winds across the local
waters and coast this afternoon and early evening. Guidance and
observations show that water levels will be near and just above the
action stage through Wednesday both along the local Atlantic coast
and within the St. Johns River basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  72  91 /  10  60  20  60
SSI  79  87  78  89 /  60  60  30  50
JAX  75  89  75  91 /  40  40  10  70
SGJ  77  88  76  89 /  40  30  10  60
GNV  74  91  73  91 /  10  70  30  80
OCF  74  91  74  91 /  10  70  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-233-
     333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$