Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
635
FXUS62 KJAX 260738
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
338 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Extended Duration of Coastal and Marine Hazards Continues this
Week. A Coastal Flood Warning has been Extended through
Tuesday Morning Along the Southeast GA Coast and through
Wednesday Night for Coastal Northeast FL, the Intracoastal
Waterway and the St. Johns River Basin. Moderate to Locally
Major Flooding around Times of High Tide is Forecast Today,
with Minor to Moderate Flooding then Continuing for the Rest
of this Work Week.
- Gale Warning for the Atlantic Waters through Early this
Afternoon for the Atlantic Waters North of St. Augustine. Gale
Warning Extended through Tonight for the Atlantic Waters from
St. Augustine Southward.
- High Surf Advisory Extended through Early Wednesday Morning
Along the Atlantic Coast. A High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents
Continues at All Area Beaches this Week. Major Beach Erosion
will be Possible around Times of High Tide this Week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights: Through Tonight
- Moderate to Locally Major Coastal/Tidal Flooding Atlantic
Coast, Intracoastal Waterway and the St. Johns River Basin.
- Windy Conditions Prevail along the Atlantic Coast and I-95
Corridor.
Surface high pressure over the mid-Atlantic will gradually
weaken today allowing the sharp coastal troughing over the
area to slightly relax. Breezy NNE winds are still expected with
wind gusts of 25-35 mph. A few spots along the coast may reach
40 mph this afternoon but not enough to warrant continuing the
Wind Advisory. A seasonably dry air mass (PWATs < 1 in) in place
across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley advects southward later
today, which will shift shower activity to mainly south of St
Augustine. Showers that shift onshore are anticipated to be
light and shouldn`t exacerbate the significant tidal flooding
during high tide cycles. Below seasonable highs continue with
highs in the low 70s along the SE GA coast to the upper 70s/low
80s further inland. A gradual loosening of our local pressure
gradient tonight will allow for winds to decouple overnight
across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, where fair
skies will allow lows to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s with
onshore winds keeping lows in the 60s for the coast and north-
central FL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Coastal Flood
Warnings Remaining in Effect along the Northeast FL Atlantic
Coast, Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River Basin.
Moderate Tidal Flooding Will Continue Around Times of High
Tide for these Locations.
- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf
Advisories Continuing on Tuesday. A High Risk for Deadly Rip
Currents will Persist at All Area Beaches. Pounding Surf
During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major Beach Erosion.
A stagnant weather pattern aloft is expected to continue through
midweek, as a cutoff trough remains situated near the Bahamas,
while ridging builds across the southeastern states. This ridge
will direct a shortwave trough northeastward from the southern
Plains on Tuesday morning towards the eastern Great Lakes by
Wednesday evening. Meanwhile, a slowly weakening surface high
pressure center centered over the Southern Appalachians will
shift southward over the southeastern states, followed by a
reinforcing and strengthening high pressure center building
southeastward from Ontario and Quebec towards the eastern Great
Lakes and New England. Otherwise, sharp coastal troughing will
remain situated over our local Atlantic waters, keeping a tight
local pressure gradient in place across our area.
Breezy northeasterly winds will continue on Tuesday, with this
flow advecting marine stratocumulus inland from the Atlantic
waters across most of northeast and north central FL. These
breezy onshore winds will generate enough low level convergence
to create isolated to widely scattered showers over the Atlantic
waters that will advect onshore along the northeast FL coast,
with a few showers moving inland across southern portions of the
St. Johns River basin. Cloud cover and breezy onshore winds
will keep highs in the mid to upper 70s for locations along and
east of I-95. A seasonably dry air mass over southeast GA and
the Suwannee Valley will allow for mostly sunny skies, and
rising heights aloft will boost highs to the lower 80s for
inland locations west of I-95. Our local pressure gradient will
begin tightening on Tuesday night as strong high pressure begins
to wedge down the southeastern seaboard once again. Lows will
fall into the 50s for inland southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley, with 60s expected elsewhere.
High pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard and a
sharpening trough extending from the Bahamas westward across
south FL will tighten our local pressure gradient on
Wednesday. There may be just enough moisture to combine with the
strengthening low level convergence to advect isolated to widely
scattered showers onshore from the Atlantic waters, mainly
across St. Johns and Flagler Counties. Gusty northeasterly winds
will keep highs mostly in the mid to upper 70s for locations
along and east of the I-95 corridor on Wednesday, with lower 80s
prevailing inland. Breezy onshore winds will keep coastal lows
on Wednesday night in the upper 60s and lower 70s, while a
lighter breeze inland keeps lows in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Moderate Tidal
Flooding Likely During Times of High Tide Within the St.
Johns River Basin. Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding Will
Continue Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the Intracoastal
Waterway.
- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Persist, with a High Risk
for Deadly Rip Currents and Significant Beach Erosion
Continuing at Area Beaches.
Ridging aloft will remain in place across our area late this
week, with this feature then flattening during the upcoming
weekend as a another shortwave trough progresses north-
northeastward from the southern Plains towards the Great Lakes
states. Meanwhile, high pressure will weaken as it shifts off
the New England and Mid- Atlantic seaboards, with coastal
troughing remaining situated over our near shore waters. This
coastal trough will combine with veering low and mid level flow
to occasionally advect widely scattered showers onshore from the
Atlantic waters, mainly for locations along and east of the
I-95 corridor in northeast FL. Although multi- layered cloud
cover will continue across our region during this time frame,
rising heights aloft late this week and warm air advection on
the heels of east and southeasterly low level flow will boost
highs to the low and mid 80s each afternoon at inland locations.
Breezy onshore winds will keep coastal highs in the mid to
upper 70s. Lows will generally fall to the lower or mid 60s
inland, with coastal lows remaining in the upper 60s to around
70.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Gusty NNE winds continue through the TAF period with sustained
winds 10-20 kts and gusts 18-30 kts. Highest gusts will be in
the afternoon for SSI/SGJ. MVFR CIGs will linger over the TAF
sites in the early morning. CIGS lift to VFR for JAX and SSI as
the orientation of lower CIGS shifts south. A few showers may
pass by SGJ this morning but the bulk of the activity should
remain south of the local TAF sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong high pressure over the mid-Atlantic and an area of low
pressure in the western Atlantic will continue a tight pressure
gradient over area waters today into early next week. Frequent
gusts to gale force are expected to continue through this
evening. Rounds of showers will continue to move over the
coastal waters through tonight. The high will weaken slowly to
the north this week but winds and waves will remain elevated
above headline levels the entire week.
Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories have been
extended through Tuesday night for our entire Atlantic
coastline, with surf peaking today as breakers reach the 8-10 ft
range at the northeast FL beaches and 6-8 feet for the
southeast GA beaches. High surf conditions will likely continue
for the northeast FL beaches through at least Thursday. A high
risk of deadly rip currents will continue at all area beaches
during the next week, where major beach erosion is likely to
occur around times of high tide during this extended duration
onshore wind and coastal flooding event.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AT COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
Isolated to widely scattered showers will continue to
occasionally move onshore along the northeast Florida coast
this week, with a few showers moving inland past the Interstate
95 corridor to around U.S. Highway 301. Otherwise, dry weather
will continue during the next several days for southeast Georgia
and the Suwannee Valley. A drier air mass moving across inland
southeast Georgia may drop humidity values to near critical
thresholds for locations north of Waycross on Tuesday afternoon.
Strong northeasterly surface and transport winds will continue
along the northeast Florida coastal counties today, with
breezy conditions elsewhere yielding good daytime dispersion
values area-wide. Breezy surface and transport winds during the
overnight hours will result in elevated nighttime dispersion
values for locations along and east of I-95 each night through
at least Thursday. Breezy northeasterly transport winds on
Tuesday will create fair to good daytime dispersion values, with
a slight increase in speeds on Wednesday yielding good daytime
dispersion values area-wide.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog
formation is not expected during the next several days.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong north-northeasterly winds will continue to combine with
the highest astronomical tides of the year (Hunter`s moon) to
yield moderate tidal flooding today around times of high tide,
with a few spots possibly touching reaching major flooding. Peak
water levels are anticipated to be 2.5 to 3.5 feet above Mean
Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of high tide today, with
water levels then generally reaching 2-3 feet above MHHW from
tonight through at least Wednesday night. Northeast winds will
remain breezy on Tuesday and will likely increase again on
Wednesday and Thursday, with high astronomical tides due to the
lunar perigee maintaining moderate tidal flooding this week
within the St. Johns River basin, with minor to moderate
flooding continuing during times of high tide along the Atlantic
coast.
As astronomical tide levels increase, the combination of the
high surf and water levels will create significant beach
erosion at area beaches. The long duration of this strong
onshore wind event will likely produce major beach erosion
during each high tide cycle through at least Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 76 50 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 72 59 75 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 74 59 78 62 / 0 0 10 0
SGJ 75 67 79 69 / 20 10 30 0
GNV 78 60 82 62 / 0 0 10 0
OCF 79 61 82 64 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-124-
125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Wednesday night for GAZ154-
166.
High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450-452-470-
472.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
Thursday for AMZ450-452-470-472.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ454-474.
&&
$$