244
FXUS62 KJAX 152353
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
753 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf


- Heat Advisory Area-Wide Sunday. Daily Heat Advisories &
  Extreme Heat Warnings Likely throughout the Next Week

- Strong to Severe Storm Hazards on Sunday: Damaging Wind Gusts
  of 30-50 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, Heavy Downpours and
  Localized Flooding

- Isolated to Scattered Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Next Week

&&

.UPDATE...

The heat advisory and extreme heat headlines have ended this
evening. Weaker instability, sampled by the afternoon upper air,
has checked convection through out the day with very isolated
diurnal activity thus far. There remains potential for isolated
to scattered development north of Waycross in SE GA through
midnight as outflow from more robust convection to the north
continues southward into the region. Generally expecting
thunderstorms to be of the weaker variety this evening as they
attempt to develop. Elsewhere, a relatively hot (low 90s)
evening will gradually trend cooler with the setting sun then
fall to the middle 70s overnight tonight.

A ridge-splitting upper impulse will slowly move into the SE GA region
tomorrow (Sunday), generating stronger instability. This will
aid in more convective coverage Sunday afternoon and evening as
the Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland. Dry air aloft may still
act to cannibalize updrafts across portions of NE FL through the
day.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Sunday & Monday Afternoon/Evening

- Heat Index Values Near or Above Heat Advisory Each Day

A frontal boundary from out of the northwest will settle in over
southeast Georgia by Monday resulting in more inhibited convection
over southeast Georgia compared against Sunday and with higher
chances for storms occurring ahead of the boundary over northeast
Florida. Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the
northwest with moist air maintaining over northeast Florida south of
the frontal boundary and north of high pressure ridging crossing
over the southern Florida peninsula. High temperatures for the end
of the week will rise into the upper 90s and potentially reaching
upwards to 100 over portions of southeast Georgia. Overnight low
temperatures will drop down into the mid to upper 70s over inland
areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s for coastal areas and along
the St Johns River. Heat index values during this period will reach
upwards of 106 up to over 113, resulting in heat advisory and
extreme heat conditions into the beginning of next week.
.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Hazardous Heat Continues into Next Week, with Daily Heat
Headlines Possible

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and evening,
some which could become strong

Prevailing flow continue from out of the west and northwest through
the end of the week with the stalled frontal boundary acting to
inhibit convection over southeast Georgia through Wednesday, with
flow expected to become more southwesterly for the end of the week
as the frontal boundary disperses resulting in a more uniform
pattern of diurnal convection before the weekend with a potential
for strong to severe storms forming under the influence of upper
level instability nearer to the end of the period. High temperatures
will continue to be in the upper 90s through next week with heat
index values likely to reach heat advisory levels through at least
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...

VFR conditions will generally hold with winds trending light and
variable at or below 5 knots. Localized mist or ground fog may
develop at KVQQ or KGNV during the early hours Saturday.
Stronger instability will offer higher potential for TSRA
development, especially along the I-95 corridor during the
early evening. Vicinity mentions have been added to most TAF
sites but highest potential for TSRA (30-40%) will be at sites
along and north of I-10.

&&

.MARINE...

Atlantic high pressure will build westward across the Florida
peninsula today. Only isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop late this afternoon and evening, mainly for the
waters north of St. Augustine. The axis of Atlantic high pressure
will then shift southward on Sunday and Monday as a frontal boundary
pushes into the southeastern states, with this feature stalling just
north of the Georgia waters by midweek. Southwest to westerly winds
will prevail from Sunday through midweek, with evening wind surges
likely increasing speeds to Caution levels. Only isolated to widely
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected on Sunday
and Monday, with coverage potentially increasing towards midweek as
the frontal boundary approaches from the north.

Rip Currents: Low to very borderline moderate risk of rip currents
will continue this weekend into early next week, with mostly
offshore flow and surf/breakers into the 1-2 ft range with a sea
breeze pinned close to the beaches each day. Any increase in surf
for the mid to late week time frame will depend on the development
of any tropical waves in the Central Atlantic.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Heat Headlines In Effect Today
- Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Southeast Ga Monday

Hot conditions are expected to persist through the rest of the
weekend and into at least the start of next week, with heat
headlines likely to continue each day for most or all of the region.
This will come with a flow direction generally out of the southwest
to west through the next several days, as well as slightly lower
chances for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms, especially
over interior GA. Good mixing, especially outside of any showers or
storms, will result in mostly good dispersions, which could be high
over portions of inland GA late weekend.

Fog Potential: Significant fog developments are not expected,
however late-night or early-morning fog developments are expected to
be shallow and patchy, mainly occurring over areas that have
received locally heavy rainfall. Gusty and erratic winds are often
possible within and nearby any stronger showers or storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures are possible at some of our designated
climate sites during the next several days:

Saturday August 15:
KJAX: 99/1956
KGNV: 100/1918
KAMG: 99/1995
KCRG: 97/2011

Sunday, August 16:
KJAX: 97/1957
KGNV: 97/1918
KAMG: 100/1995
KCRG: 95/2022

Monday, August 17:
KJAX: 99/1954
KGNV: 97/1954
KAMG: 104/1995
KCRG: 97/2005

Tuesday, August 18:
KJAX: 98/1954
KGNV: 98/1954
KAMG: 105/1995
KCRG: 96/2023

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  95  76  96 /  20  30  20  20
SSI  78  95  79  96 /  10  40  30  20
JAX  76  94  76  95 /  10  30  30  40
SGJ  77  95  77  95 /  10  10  20  60
GNV  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  10  70
OCF  75  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$