678
FXUS62 KJAX 041751
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
151 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding this Weekend and Next Week.
  CoastalFlood Warning: Moderate Tidal Flood impacts within the
  St. Johns River Basin,

- Coastal Northeast FL & Intracoastal Waterway. Coastal Flood Advisory:
  Minor Tidal Flood impacts Coastal Southeast GA & Nassau Co.

- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions through Tuesday, then likely
  return Thursday and continue into Next Weekend. High Rip
  Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory

- Locally Heavy Rainfall & Flood Risk on Sunday and Monday. Waves
  of Heavy Downpours, Isolated Coastal Thunderstorms on Sunday
  and Monday. Localized Flood Risk at Coastal & Normally Flood
  Prone, Low-lying Locations

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

High pressure will remain centered to the northeast this period,
with ridging extending across the southeastern US. An inverted
trough will remain along the coastal waters. With this pattern, a
pinched gradient will be in place, resulting in a moist and gusty
onshore flow. The greatest chance for showers will be near the
coast, with this activity falling apart as it encounters drier air
further inland. A few coastal thunderstorms will also be possible.
Due to the enhanced gradient winds will be elevated and gusty Today,
especially near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Mean upper ridging will remain situated overhead to wrap up the
weekend. There will be a southeasterly shift in mid level flow as a
weak frontal feature aloft lifts northward. This will enhance deep
moisture and enhance potential for deeper, but still fast-moving,
convection Sunday afternoon. For context, mean PWATs from LREF
guidance indicates mean PWATs around 2" which is around the 80th
percentile for climo. With broken skies, diurnal heating will be
somewhat limited by cloudiness but anticipate enough for sufficient
instability. Some instability and a weak shortwave lifting north
should combine to force up a few thunderstorms along the I-75
corridor Sunday afternoon. Given the rich moisture, heavy rain rates
may lead to localized flood concerns in urban areas; however, storm
moitions around 20 mph should limit flood risk.

Anamolously high deep moisture stays in place Monday but upper flow
will weaken some but breezy onshore flow and coastal trough
convergence will keep chances for showers and isolated storms
through Monday as well. Surface pressure gradients don`t feature a
lot of change through the end of the weekend and remin tightly
packed, keeping breezy to gusty onshore winds going into the
upcoming work week.

Temperatures will be slighlty below normal due to the passing
showers, cloudiness and onshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A more progressive northern stream will send successive fronts
toward the area during the late part of next week. More confidence
in the arrival of the first front Thursday, bringing a renewed surge
of strong northeasterly onshore winds. This will exacerbate and
continue coastal hazards, including rip currents, coastal flooding,
dangerous maritime boating conditoins, and rough surf, into next
weekend. The typical nor`easter conditions are to be expected
Thursday and Friday. Though it`s a bit far out, the gradient
compression with the incoming front may be enough to push coastal
winds toward Wind Advisory level (gusts > 40 mph) on Thursdy/Friday.
We`ll assess the potential over the next few days.

There is a bit more uncertainty regarding the depth of the next
upper trough as it digs out of Canada next weekend. Clustered
guidance does lean bit toward a more amplified wave which would send
a stronger front our way next weekend, potentially sweeping out some
of the linger moisture resulting in drying and cooling conditions.
Until then, coastal troughing will keep a slight chance of showers
at the beaches next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The continued moist onshore flow will keep the potential for
showers in the forecast. Restrictions will be expected in showers
and stratus. Elevated winds will persist this period. The winds
will be gusty especially during the day time.

While the chance is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time, a
few brief thunderstorms are possible at coastal TAF sites this
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

The current pattern with high pressure centered to the northeast,
and a trough over the coastal waters will continue through early
next week. This will keep the elevated and gusty winds, along with
bands of showers in the forecast. A few thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly during the afternoons. The pattern changes briefly
mid week, as the high moves away, and a cold front moves through.
High pressure is expected to build to the north, with troughing
over the waters later next week, bringing a return to the elevated
conditions.

Rip Currents: High Risk through Tuesday

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

With very little change in pattern through Tuesday, have extended
coastal flood products into Tuesday afternoon. Conditions will
subside midweek, before another round of elevated onshore flow
arrives late in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  83  69  85 /  10  50  10  30
SSI  72  82  74  83 /  40  50  20  40
JAX  72  85  73  85 /  30  50  20  60
SGJ  74  85  74  84 /  40  60  40  60
GNV  70  87  72  86 /  10  50  20  60
OCF  72  86  74  86 /  10  50  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ125-132-137-
     138-225-233-325-333-633.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$