395
FXUS62 KJAX 222129
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
429 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Possible Late Tonight & Early Sunday Morning. Potential
Highest Impact Area: I-75 Corridor

- Near Record Warmth Continues Inland through Wednesday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious
with outdoor fires  check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme
Drought Expanding Across Inland Southeast GA & the

&&

.UPDATE...
Early update to account for continued scattered to isolated pre-
frontal shower activity moving eastward across southeast GA and the
northern Suwannee River Valley. Drier air that mixed own across the
St. Johns River basin will continue to limit southward extend of
rainfall potential to mainly areas near and north of the I-10
corridor overnight as the front settles southward. Isolated
thunderstorm risk was introduced for inland SE GA and the Suwannee
River Valley this evening where surface based instability nosed
upward through the day with CAPEs 500-1000 J/kg under relatively
cool mid level temperatures. South of the front tonight as it
settles across northeast Florida, Gulf stratus and fog will
increase after midnight and expanded inland toward the Highway 301
corridor through daybreak. Best potential for localized fog with
visibility < 1 mile at times will be across the Suwannee River Valley
where winds will be weaker, while elevated winds near and trialing
the front will keep dense fog risk minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will be in place for Sunday and Monday as dry air
associated with the stalling frontal boundary settles in over the
forecast area and high pressure ridging extends over the region from
out of the west.  High temperatures for the end of the week and into
the beginning of next will be in the lower to mid 80s and upper 70s.
Overnight low temperatures will be in the 50s over inland areas and
in the lower 60s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strong cold front will move into the region from out of the north
on Wednesday and into Thursday, bringing showers and possible
embedded thunderstorms on Wednesday. Drier weather will settle over
the forecast area following the passage of the frontal boundary with
northerly winds through the end of the forecast period. Above
average temperatures through midweek will drop to be near and below
normal for the latter half of the week as cold air settles in over
the forecast area. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday may
challenge preexisting daily records.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Fog has fully dissipated this morning, leaving VFR conditions that
will be expected through at least this evening. Winds will be a bit
breezy ahead of an approaching front, mainly in the 10-12 knot range
before easing after sunset. Low stratus and fog development will be
expected across most of the area overnight tonight, with the
greatest chance for high impacts being at GNV and VQQ. At least MVFR
ceilings will be expected area-wide, though potential certainly
exists for IFR and even LIFR conditions, mainly for ceilings as
winds will be slightly stronger than previous nights as the front
moves through. A brief SHRA cannot be ruled out at any airfield
tonight, though overall this front is expected to be a dry passage.

&&

.MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure ridge will sink south of the area today. A weakening
and mostly dry frontal boundary will then push southward through the
coastal waters tonight into Sunday morning. High pressure will build
eastward on Sunday towards the Mid-Atlantic states by Monday
afternoon, with breezy onshore winds developing across our local
waters from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. A stronger
cold front will then push eastward across the southeastern states on
Wednesday into Thursday, with southerly winds expected to develop
ahead of this front beginning on Tuesday evening.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Sunday
              NE FL Low Sunday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...

Breezy southwesterly winds will spread across the entire area today
as a mostly dry frontal boundary pushes southeastward into and
through the region tonight into Sunday. This will lead to good
daytime dispersions area-wide and an increase in low level moisture.
Unfortunately, this frontal passage will lack any much needed
rainfall for the area suffering from severe/extreme drought
conditions. Northeasterly winds behind the front Sunday will trend
easterly by Monday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Patchy to areas of fog are likely
this morning. Dense fog will be focused along the I-75 corridor this
morning. Patchy inland fog will remain possible across NE FL both
Sunday and Monday mornings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                          SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)     84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)     81/1997
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)     86/1906
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)     83/2011

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  59  79  51  77 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  63  77  60  73 /  30   0   0   0
JAX  63  82  56  78 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  64  80  61  78 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  65  83  57  82 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  63  82  58  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$