975
FXUS62 KJAX 302342
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
742 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend.
  Coastal Flood Warning: Moderate Flooding along the upper St.
  Johns River. Coastal Flood Advisory: Minor flooding along the
  Atlantic Coast and lower St Johns River High Surf Advisory at
  Northeast FL Beaches; Elevated through the weekend. High Rip
  Current Risk at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend.
  Small Craft Advisories for the Atlantic Waters continue.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Heavy
Rainfall Possible across portions of NE FL south of I-10.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights:

- Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns
River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue, especially at
Northeast FL Beaches

Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will
shift eastward toward the mid-Atlantic region later tonight. This
will maintain ENE winds across the area though slightly weaker than
yesterday. Occasional coastal showers will develop in the convergent
ENE flow and shift onshore through the day mainly to the NE FL coast
and St Johns river basin. Accumulations are expected to be light.
Daytime highs will range from the mid/upper 70s along the coast to
the low 80s further inland. A backdoor cold front will start to
approach from the north as the surface high pressure wedges down the
eastern seaboard to gradually increase NE winds. Lows tonight will
range from the 60s over SE GA and inland FL to the low 70s closer to
the St. Johns River and NE FL coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal flooding and surf hazards continue through the weekend.

- Heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms for portions of NE FL
on Sunday

Breezy northeasterly flow continues through the weekend as wind
speeds from 15 to 20 mph and gusts of 25 to 30 mph, higher speeds
near the coast, with onshore flow strengthening on Saturday
afternoon with an approaching frontal boundary. Coastal showers are
once will continue Saturday, with the areal coverage of showers
expanding northward across coastal NE FL and SE GA, with some some
showers expected to push a bit more inland than the past couple of
days.

By Sunday, both the chances and areal coverage of showers increase
with most locations with scattered chances of showers, with higher
chances near the coast and north central FL locations. Additionally,
some thunderstorm development will be possible by the afternoon
hours primarily over NE FL. With these showers, there could be
periods of heavy rainfall, which could be an issue if training
showers develop.

Temperatures will cool through the weekend with daytime highs in the
lower 80s across inland locations, while coastal locations will sit
in the mid to upper 70s, sparse spots in the lower 80s. By Sunday,
daytime temperatures will be a bit cooler behind the cold front and
increase in cloud cover with daytime highs topping out in the mid
70s, with some locations across north central FL reaching into the
lower 80s.

The persistent onshore flow will continue to keep the potential for
coastal hazards through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential returns midweek.

- Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone
conditions.

By the start of the upcoming week, showers will continue to push
towards coastal locations with a few moving towards inland locations
during the afternoon hours. As northeasterly flow persists during
the upcoming week, we will continue to expect coastal showers into
midweek. A midweek frontal boundary looks to push into the area as
its associated low pressure system swings across the SE US. This
could bring the next chance for convective activity as a line of
thunderstorms moves into the area past midweek during the Wednesday
to Thursday time frame.

Temperatures in the mid 70s will warm into the lower 80s by midweek
ahead of the next frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Mostly MVFR ceilings persist across the area this evening, though
some improvements are expected overnight tonight in this regard as a
"back door" cold front quickly approaches from the north. Most
guidance is overall in good agreement that this front will help to
scatter out some of the lower clouds across the area. Main point of
uncertainty will be at inland areas, as some higher resolution
guidance does suggest low stratus lingering/developing at terminals
such as VQQ and GNV, and therefore kept at least scattered MVFR
ceilings for now overnight at this sites. Otherwise, the front will
reinforce onshore flow once again during the day on Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure over area waters will shift southward while
weakening slightly today. Another strong high pressure center
building southeastward from the Upper Midwest today will reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday, with this feature wedging down the
southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. Although a
slight lull in winds and seas is expected through tonight, the surge
will return hazards across the coastal waters once again for the
weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward
across the Florida peninsula this weekend may generate numerous
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across
our local waters.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories remain in effect for
the northeast FL beaches through tonight, where breakers of 5 to 6
feet will prevail. Breakers of 3 to 5 feet will prevail at the
southeast GA beaches today. These elevated, rough surf conditions
will maintain a high risk of deadly rip currents at all area beaches
through the upcoming weekend, and additional beach erosion is likely
to occur around times of high tide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     AREAS OF ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
- Through The Weekend

Coastal showers will continue to be pushed onshore through the
overnight hours Tonight. Shower chances will increase during the
upcoming weekend, with thunderstorms chances during the afternoon
hours on Sunday, primarily along coastal and inland NE FL. Chances
remain during the start of the upcoming week, higher chances along
the coast and towards the I-95 corridor. Northeasterly onshore flow
will continue to breezy to gusty conditions across the area, with
higher speeds along coastal locations. This will allow for nighttime
dispersions to remain elevated through the weekend and the start of
the upcoming week along the coast.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Weaker NE flow and relatively lower astronomical tides is allowing
for sites to dip into Minor and Action flood stage along the coast,
ICW and portions of the St Johns River today. Coastal Flood Warnings
have all been downgraded to Advisories except for eastern Putnam for
areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate
flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide
cycles. ENE winds increase again this weekend maintaining reverse
flow in the St Johns river and continuing beach erosion along the
Atlantic coast. Flood levels may rise back into moderate Sunday into
early next week along the St Johns river.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  80  63  76 /  10  10  10  20
SSI  66  76  65  74 /  20  50  40  50
JAX  67  79  66  76 /  20  40  30  50
SGJ  70  79  70  77 /  30  30  30  50
GNV  68  83  69  79 /  10  10  20  50
OCF  69  84  70  80 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124-
     125-132-138-225-233-325-333-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ137.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Sunday for
     AMZ450-452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$