Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
008 FXUS62 KJAX 141149 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 749 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Surface trough over the Atlantic Coastal waters offshore of NE FL/SE GA will continue to slowly drift southward Today and Tonight and the northerly steering flow this morning will shift towards the Northeast by this afternoon and tonight. With PWATs remaining close to 2 inches, and the shift in steering flow, expect the East Coast sea breeze to become more dominant and will press inland with scattered showers and storms along the I-95 corridor by mid- day, then becoming numerous to widespread as it presses westward across inland NE FL/SE GA through the afternoon hours with the main threat still heavy rainfall, but strong to isolated severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph will be possible in the most intense storms. Convection will weaken/fade after sunset as it presses west of the local area. Max temps and peak heat indices will be tricky once again, and will depend on the start of convection along the East Coast sea breeze, and expect peak heat indices in the 104-108F range and very close to heat advisory criteria, but will hold off once again with issuance due to the uncertainty of timing of afternoon convection, high rainfall chances and enough cloud cover to suppress peak heat indices below heat advisory levels. Max temps will range from around 90F at the Atlantic beaches, to lower 90s along the I-95 corridor, to the mid/upper 90s over inland NE FL/inland SE GA regions. Low temps tonight still generally in the middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80F for the Atlantic Coast/Beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Area of low pressure will slowly move west southwest across forecast area Tuesday morning, and into the northeastern Gulf in the afternoon. This area of low pressure will continue to track to the west Wednesday into Wednesday night, as high pressure builds to the east northeast. Precipitation chances will be greatest across NE FL this period, due to the location of the low track. A few strong afternoon and evening thunderstorms each afternoon, with localized flooding possible. Temperatures will be near to a little above average this period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 High pressure will be centered to the east of the region Thursday and Friday, which ridge stretching over forecast area. The east coast sea breeze will be active both days, so the best chance for convection will be inland. The high will move away to the east over the weekend, as a trough develops across the southeastern US. A moist flow from the southwest will yield above normal precipitation chances. Temperatures will be above average this period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 749 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 VFR with leftover convective debris clouds at all TAF sites this morning, then northeast winds will increase to 10-15 knots at coastal TAF sites of SSI/SGJ/CRG and 5-10 knots at inland TAF sites of JAX/VQQ/GNV. Showers will linger near SGJ for the next hour. Timing of showers and storms will be in the 16-20Z time frame at the coastal TAF sites of CRG/SSI/SGJ, but only in the vicinity, then shifting to 18-22Z time frame at JAX/VQQ and 19-23Z time frame at GNV, along with higher rainfall chances as the East coast sea breeze pushes inland, MVFR CIGS and possible IFR VSBYS with heavy rainfall chances. Rainfall chances fade after sunset (00Z) and will leave VFR conds with lingering clouds through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1248 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Troughing developing over the Gulf Stream waters this morning will shift slowly westward this afternoon, crossing our local waters tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will then increase in coverage on Tuesday and Wednesday as troughing shifts westward across the Florida peninsula and into the eastern Gulf, with low pressure potentially organizing later in the week near the northern Gulf coast. Prevailing northeasterly winds today will shift to southerly by late Tuesday as troughing shifts west of our local waters, with south-southeasterly winds briefly strengthening to Caution levels near shore on Wednesday afternoon. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through late in the week as southerly winds prevail. Rip Currents: Low to Moderate risk of rips with surf/breakers of 1-2 ft today and Tuesday as flow slowly becomes more onshore and increases towards the middle of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 73 94 73 / 70 50 60 10 SSI 89 78 88 78 / 40 20 40 10 JAX 94 75 92 75 / 50 30 70 10 SGJ 91 75 87 75 / 50 30 70 20 GNV 95 72 92 72 / 80 50 80 20 OCF 95 72 90 73 / 90 60 90 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$