556
FXUS62 KJAX 170443
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1243 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches through the
  weekend

- Small Craft Advisory Offshore through Friday Afternoon

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues through the Weekend. Main Impact
  Area: St. Johns River Basin from Downtown

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

High pressure ridge over the Carolinas will continue to build
southward today and will end up directly overhead of NE FL/SE GA
by tonight. This will continue mainly dry and seasonably cool
conditions across the region. The breezy onshore/NE flow today at
15G20-25 mph will quickly fade after sunset tonight and become
light east winds along the Atlantic Coast with near calm winds
developing over inland areas. Skies will remain mostly clear for
the most part except for some partly to mostly cloudy bands of
Strato-Cumulus clouds pushing off the Atlantic Waters and into
coastal NE FL counties at times, mainly south of JAX and across
the middle St. Johns River Basin area. Temps will warm into the
lower/middle 80s over inland areas this afternoon, while only
topping out in the upper 70s/near 80F along the Atlantic Coastal
Areas. Tonight will feature cooler than normal lows in the lower
to middle 50s inland and around 60F along the Atlantic Coastal
areas. Some patchy fog will be possible around sunrise, but
overall the airmass will remain too dry for any significant fog
formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Saturday, the mid/upper level pattern will feature deep ridging
from Quebec extending southward along the spine of the Appalachian
mountains. High pressure around 1020 mb will be over the region
centered near the Carolina coast with a dry airmass over the area
muting the ability for low level cumulus clouds and eliminating
any chances for a shower.

As mid/upper level ridging drifts onto the US east coast, surface
high pressure will shift east just off the coast of NC/SC/VA. Light
NE winds will veer easterly in the afternoon 10-15 mph at the
beaches, 8-12 mph over NE FL and 5-10 mph over SE GA thanks to
clockwise flow around this slowly departing high pressure. Highs
will be near normal inland in the low 80s to the upper 70s at the
coast due to onshore winds.

Saturday night will be cool with near to slightly below normal
lows in the mid/upper 50s inland and low/mid 60s along the coast.
Atlantic stratocumulus may move onto the NE FL coast overnight,
skies will likely remain mostly clear with potential for patchy
fog inland, but winds in the low levels too high for dense fog
potential.

Sunday, an upstream positively tilted trough will swing eastward
from the OH valley into the central Appalachian mountains/eastern
Great Lakes north of the region. While much of the energy with
this trough will be north of the area, a trail of shortwave energy
sliding through the area, weak convergence, and a ribbon of well
above average moisture levels will produce isolated showers mostly
over inland areas as the front goes through a weakening trend.
While low level moisture will increase ahead of the trough, enough
dry air lingering in the mid levels will likely remove potential
for isolated T`storms. Neither will this produce a wetting
rainfall for our area as any rainfall amounts will total under a
tenth of an inch. Highs will be above normal in the mid to upper
80s.

Sunday night, isolated showers moving across the SE GA coast into
NE FL will dwindle after midnight with lingering clouds as the
front moves through the area before sunrise Monday. Lows will be
near to slightly above normal in the upper 50s to low 60s inland
and mid to upper 60s at the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Monday, the cold front will exit to the southeast and high pressure
will briefly build in across the SE US states. Light NW winds will
turn about to northeasterly as the high shifts to the Carolina coast
by afternoon with a weak Atlantic seabreeze bringing easterly winds
to the coast under mostly sunny skies.

Tuesday, the high will weaken to the east as another cold front
approaches from the NW. Winds will turn southerly, but there will
not be enough moisture for any shower coverage.

Wednesday through Friday, high pressure will become reestablished
in the wake of a mid/upper level trough swinging into the NE states
where it will persist through the end of the week while dry,
subsident WNW flow remains over the region. In fact, appears the
airmass Thursday into Friday next week will bring the driest air
of the season as PWATS fall below 0.50 (25th percentile) inches
for most of the area.

Temperatures will begin the period with above normal highs into
the mid/upper 80s inland Monday and upper 80s inland to low/mid
80s at the coast Tuesday ahead of the dry cold front. Highs will
then cool to near normal mid to late week.

Lows will begin near normal in the upper 50s/low 60s inland and
mid 60s coast and then cool below normal through the end of the
week with potential upper 40s over inland SE GA by early Thursday
morning ranging to upper 50s/low 60s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conds through the period, except for the usual up and down fog
at VQQ during the early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Elevated seas offshore will maintain Small Craft Advisory
conditions through this afternoon. High pressure will then weaken
as it shifts southeastward towards our local waters on Saturday,
allowing winds and seas to diminish. A weakening cold front will
then approach our region on Sunday night, possibly developing a
few showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Southwesterly winds
will briefly strengthen ahead of this boundary, with winds
shifting to northerly in the wake of this frontal passage by early
Monday.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore flow today will continue to support
High Risk of rip currents today, with surf/breakers in the 4-6 ft
range along the NE FL Coast and 3-5 ft along the SE GA coast.
Onshore flow weakens over the weekend, but long period swells will
keep the rip current risk High along the NE FL coast with breakers
in the 3-5 ft range, with Moderate risk at the SE GA beaches over
the weekend with surf/breakers in the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1239 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Minor Tidal/Coastal flooding will continue around times of high
tide along the St. Johns River Basin, mainly south of JAX, and
along the NE FL Coastline, mainly in portions of the ICWW where
water remains trapped in the onshore flow. These conditions will
continue today in the breezy onshore flow, but may begin to
improve later in the weekend as the onshore flow weakens on
Saturday, then becomes southerly by Sunday. For now have kept the
current Coastal Flood Advisory intact, but have just extended
through Saturday afternoon, to allow for the higher morning tide
cycle on Saturday work its way southward through the St. Johns
River Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  76  63  77  65 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  80  57  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  79  62  79  64 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  84  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  84  56  82  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-132-
     137-138-325-333-633.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ470-
     472-474.

&&

$$