985
FXUS62 KJAX 071843
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
243 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally Heavy Rain This Afternoon. Flooding Rainfall Risk
  Mainly Across Northeast FL and coastal Southeast GA.
  Scattered to Numerous Showers and Storms this Afternoon &
  Evening. Main Impacts: Locally Heavy Rainfall, Lightning, Wind
  Gusts around 40 mph

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Rest of Today & Tuesday

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Tuesday to Sunday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Highlights Through Tonight:

- Localized Flash Flood Risk for NE FL, including Suwannee
Valley and North Central FL

There`s no shortage of available moisture (precipitable water
around 2.15-2.3") to fuel heavy showers and thunderstorms
through this afternoon across NE FL, particularly as outflow and
onshore flow interact with a frontal zone stalled near the I-10
corridor. While diurnal heating has destabilized the SE GA
zones north of the stalled front, the drier aloft will reduce
the overall storm coverage and intensity, particularly across
the inland zones north of US Highway 82. Stronger convection and
numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected on the
south side of the boundary in NE FL.

Though soils are not "saturated", soggy grounds persist in localized
areas across NE FL due to the accumulated rain over the last 3 days.
This will heighten concerns of localized flash flooding and
scattered instances of minor flooding through the afternoon.
Additionally, gusty winds up to 40 mph are possible with some of the
stronger updrafts this afternoon. Generally, anticipate the ongoing
scattered convection to push west of I-95 and then progress
southwestward with numerous showers and thunderstorms developing
toward the I-75 corridor and into north-central FL by 4-6 PM. There
will be a break initially this evening but an inverted coastal
trough, forming over the adjacent coastal waters, will bring a
chance for coastal showers and isolated storms overnight.

Showers and cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cooler side
today with highs broadly reaching the upper 80s with some inland
locations reaching around 90 today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Localized Flooding Rain Threat

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

The front remains stalled across central Florida Tuesday and
Wednesday, slowly dissipating. A stronger onshore breeze develops
Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping coastal high temperatures a
little `cooler` in  the mid to upper 80s, while inland highs reach
the low 90s. Overall, numerous showers and storms are forecast both
afternoons/evenings inland, with morning showers and isolated storms
moving onshore, spreading inland throughout the day. PWATs remain
around 2.0" so the localized flood threat from heavy rainfall will
continue during this period, we also may see some isolated strong
storm development over inland locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

Precipitation chances remain pretty high (near 60%) Thursday and
Friday, decreasing slightly this weekend. South/southwest winds will
rise temperatures back up to above normal in the lower to mid 90s
through the weekend, with highest storm chances over north central
Florida. An isolated flooding rainfall threat returns for Thursday
and Friday, with the Weather Prediction Center having the entire
area under a `Marginal` risk of excessive rainfall both days.
Another front will approach the area from the north at the end of
this week, at this time it appears to stall over central Georgia
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

There is a possibility that additional convection may develop across
Jax Metro terminals again this afternoon though confidence has
lowered enough to remove TEMPO/PROB30 groups for the afternoon
period. TSRA development remains likely (70% chance) at KGNV this
afternoon between 19z-22z with storm motion to the southwest
thereafter. Tonight, coastal showers may reach KCRG/KSSI/KSGJ while
terminals inland are less likely to be impacted by the overnight
showers. Northeasterly flow should keep stratus from developing at
IFR levels but still a 15-30% chance of MVFR ceilings around day
break Tuesday. Northeasterly winds prevail through the period around
10 knots at the coast and 5-10 knots inland. Increasing ENE winds
are expected on Tuesday with gusts up to 20 knots at the coast.

&&

.MARINE...

A front stalls across north Florida today then shifts south of the
waters tonight into Tuesday as high pressure strengthens to the
northeast. A brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions
is possible mainly over the Georgia waters overnight tonight and
into Tuesday as a coastal trough develops offshore, then elevated
combined seas may bring Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions to
the outer waters on Wednesday as the coastal trough weakens. High
pressure builds east of the local waters Thursday then extends
across the Florida peninsula Friday into the weekend with a return
of westerly winds and the afternoon east coast sea breeze.

Onshore flow will lead to a moderate risk today. As onshore flow
strengthens and surf builds with breakers up to 3-4 ft on Tuesday, a
High Risk of Rip Currents will develop along the southeast GA
beaches. High Risk may expand to all beaches by Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front is expected to shift southward into central Florida
tonight, and stalling there through Thursday. Increased rain and
storm chances are forecast each day, with onshore winds bringing
morning coastal showers that will spread inland throughout the day
and increase in coverage. There remains potential for locally heavy
downpours through mid-week. Overall, dispersion will be fair to good
Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds will shift to southerly/southwesterly
Thursday through the weekend.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds will occur with thunderstorm
activity. Patchy inland morning fog possible each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Coastal water levels begin to increase next week with the approach
of the New Moon on Sept 11th and breezy onshore easterly winds late
Tonight through Wednesday, with the peak winds across the local
waters and coast Tuesday. At this time, extended probabilistic
guidance keeps water levels below action stage late Tuesday through
Wednesday both along the local Atlantic coast and within the St.
Johns River basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  90 /  20  60  20  60
SSI  78  87  78  87 /  50  60  50  50
JAX  74  89  75  89 /  40  60  50  60
SGJ  76  86  77  88 /  30  40  30  50
GNV  73  90  73  90 /  20  70  20  70
OCF  73  90  74  91 /  30  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through late
     Tuesday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$