187
FXUS62 KJAX 010615
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
215 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

MVFR ceilings will prevail at SGJ through the period, with
occasional moderate to heavy showers potentially resulting in
brief periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities. A TEMPO group for MVFR
visibilities was used overnight through the predawn hours on
Monday at SGJ, with a PROB30 group for IFR visibilities during the
morning and early afternoon hours. Confidence was too low for
anything other than vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County
terminals, while dry conditions will likely continue at GNV and
SSI. Occasional MVFR ceilings of 2,000 - 3,000 feet will continue
at the northeast FL terminals, while VFR ceilings above 3,000 feet
prevail at SSI until around 00Z Tuesday, when ceilings may then
lower to around 3,000 feet. Strong northeasterly surface winds
will continue at SGJ, with sustained speeds around 20 knots with
frequent gusts around 30 knots through 00Z Tuesday. Sustained
surface speeds of 10-15 knots at CRG and SSI and around 10 knots
at the inland terminals overnight will increase to around 15 knots
and gusty towards 14Z. Surface speeds will then diminish to 5-10
knots at the inland terminals and 10-15 knots at the coastal
terminals after 02Z Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Northeast surge of winds will continue to work its way southward
through this afternoon and evening, pushing the frontal boundary
south of the region into Central Florida, while high pressure
nudges southward down the SE US coastline. This will continue to
set up convergent bands of locally heavy rainfall along the
Atlantic Coastal counties and I-95 corridor from metro JAX
southward through St. Johns/Flagler counties, so far still
counting on these to be transient enough to lessen any widespread
Flooding issues and will hold off on Flood Watch for now, but with
2-4 inch rainfall amounts possible over the next 48-72 hours with
isolated higher amounts around 6 inches, this may be required if
the NE surge of winds does not push the low level convergence
bulls-eye further down the NE FL coastline. Breezy conditions have
already developed for all areas with sustained winds around 15 mph
with gusts around 25 mph, while windy conditions are expected
closer to the immediate Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin
with sustained winds of 20-25 mph with peak winds of 30-40 mph
expected, but still remaining just below Wind Advisory criteria.
Diurnal heating into the lower/middle 80s over inland areas should
still be enough to trigger scattered showers and isolated storms
over inland NE FL where enough deep moisture still remains with
PWATs in the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range. Convection over inland areas
will fade after sunset, leaving just numerous showers and
embedded/isolated storms continue over the Atlantic Coastal waters
and into the NE FL coastal counties with occasional convergent
rain bands from time to time from JAX southward along the entire
NE FL coastline. Further inland partial clearing and slightly
drier airmass will support low temps down into the middle 60s
across inland SE GA and upper 60s/lower 70s across inland NE FL
and generally middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. While
some low level stratus is expected at times over inland areas, the
elevated NE winds inland at 5-10 mph will reduce the chance of fog
formation, while breezy winds at 15-20G30 mph will continue along
the entire NE FL/SE GA coastline through the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

High pressure will build down the east coast of the US Monday, as
the frontal zone sinks toward southern FL. A weak inverted trough
will be along the coast, resulting in enhanced winds at area
beaches. Drier air will keep interior SE GA dry, with highest
precipitation chances over coastal NE FL. This pattern will
persist through Tuesday night. While the greatest chance for
precipitation will be during the heating of the day, the moist
onshore flow could keep chances going through the night,
especially at the coast.

Temperatures will trend below normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

As the high builds more toward the north northeast Wednesday, the
frontal zone will lift back north across the area. As the front
moves back into area, moisture will increase, resulting in higher
precipitation chances.

The high will move further away to the northeast Wednesday night
into Thursday, as the frontal zone largely dissipates. With the
front not as much of a factor, Thursday is expected to be a little
drier day.

High pressure will be to the northeast Friday. A weak cold front
will move southeast into area over the weekend. Precipitation
chances from Friday through Sunday are expected to range from
isolated to scattered.

Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

High pressure to the north of the region will wedge down the
southeastern seaboard through tonight, continuing a surge of
northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters.
Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through early
Tuesday. Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact
our local waters through midweek. Northeasterly winds will begin
to gradually weaken late Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for seas
to gradually subside. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
then decrease later this week as prevailing winds shift to
westerly ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts.

Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will continue Monday and
Tuesday in the Northeast flow pattern with surf/breakers reaching
into the 4-6 ft range at times, but at this time still expected to
remain below high surf advisory criteria of 7 feet. Minor to
locally Moderate beach erosion can be expected at times of high
tide, but coastal flooding is not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Will continue to monitor heavy rainfall potential along the I-95
corridor and Atlantic Coastal Counties of NE FL through the entire
Labor Day weekend and the possibility of Flood Watch issuance as
still expecting 2-4 inch rainfall totals over the next 2 to 3 days
in this corridor with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches
possible.

Middle St. Johns River Basin south of JAX to Palatka vicinity will
continue to run at elevated/Action stage water levels as the
Northeast flow pattern traps some of the higher water levels in
the basin. Minor flooding will be possible in the Putnam county
areas if this pattern lingers into the Monday/Tuesday time frame
with water levels reaching 1.5 ft above MHHW, but too early to
issue any Coastal Flood Advisory products at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  62  86  65 /   0   0  10   0
SSI  82  72  83  73 /  20  10  30  10
JAX  84  72  86  72 /  30  10  50  20
SGJ  84  75  85  74 /  60  30  60  30
GNV  86  69  88  70 /  40  10  40  20
OCF  86  72  88  72 /  50  10  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

     Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ125-138-233-
     333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452-
     454-470-472-474.

&&

$$