162
FXUS62 KJAX 291826
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
226 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerously Hot & Humid Weather Continues Today. Extreme Heat
Warning & Heat Advisory Today, Heat Indices: 110-115

- Strong to Severe Thunderstorms on This Afternoon and Evening.
Damaging Wind Gusts up to 50-70 mph, Frequent Lightning Strikes, and

- Localized Flooding Due to Heavy Downpours Possible

- Numerous Mainly Afternoon & Evening TStorms through Monday. Daily
Rounds of Heavy Downpours Could Result in Localized Flooding

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights For Today and Tonight:

- Near Record Heat with Dangerous Heat Indices of 108-115F Today and
Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are now in effect.

- Scattered Severe Storms late this afternoon through tonight with
damaging winds of 50-70 mph possible along with heavy downpours and
localized flooding

Extremely high temperatures building in over the region today
followed by storms and showers building in from out of the north
ahead of an advancing frontal boundary. Front is expected to stall
in the vicinity of southern Georgia and northeast Florida with a
moist primarily easterly prevailing flow settling over the forecast
area. Showers and storms will develop from west to east today with a
potential for stronger storms to become severe and being capable of
producing destructive winds, frequent lightning, and potential
localized flooding for areas affected by extended periods of
rainfall. Lingering convection may continue through the night and on
into Thursday morning, with the majority of overnight storm
developments occurring south of the I-10 corridor. High temperatures
today will reach up into the mid to upper 90s for much of the
forecast area with overnight low temperatures dropping into the mid
70s for inland areas and into the upper 70s along the coast. Heat
index values will rise upwards into the 110 to 115 range this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Severe
Storms Possible

- Near Heat Advisory conditions Thursday for Northeast FL & the
Coast

By Thursday, the cold front will be draped across SE GA, with the
majority of showers and storms south across NE FL, with limited
chances over SE GA as drier air filters in behind the boundary.
Convective activity may begin to develop during the morning to
afternoon hours for portions of north central FL, with further
development by the afternoon to evening hours closer to stalled
boundary over SE GA. Heavy downpours and strong downbursts will
again be possible with any showers and storms that develop as there
will still be a good amount of moisture aloft south the stalled
boundary. SPC currently has a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms for
locations along the boundary in SE GA and south of the boundary
across NE FL. With the boundary shifting a bit north along the
Altamaha River, a similar pattern will be in place once again on
Friday with coverage of numerous and widespread showers and storms
once again mainly over NE FL, with isolated strong to severe
downbursts possible.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler on Thursday and Friday, but still
will still rise into the lower to mid 90s. While it is close, Heat
Index values currently aren`t hitting Heat Advisory criteria on
Thursday, will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory for Thursday at
this time and will reassess with the next package.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Rounds of Mainly Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms,
Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible

The pattern looks to remain active for the upcoming weekend and
likely into next week as well, as a frontal zone lingers just north
of the region and energy from another upper trough affects the
southeastern states. This regime as well as abundant moisture each
day will support at least numerous showers and t`storms daily,
as well as strong downburst and heavy rainfall potential.
Temperatures overall trend near to slightly below normal during
the long term period given the more active convective pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Storms will build through the afternoon and through tonight.
Sites near and north of I-10 will be mostly cleared from convection
by around 05z-07z with a potential for vicinity developments for GNV
and SGJ overnight and into Thursday morning. Primarily westerly and
southwesterly winds through the afternoon with wind speeds of about
10-15 knots and gusts of 20 knots will become more diminished
overnight and then redevelop from out of the west by around 14z-16z
with speeds approaching 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...


Active weather pattern develops today with a surge of southwest
winds to Small Craft Exercise Caution levels which will continue
through tonight. A frontal boundary will then sink into the Deep
South late this week, with this feature becoming stationary during
the weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible well in
advance of this front this afternoon and evening, with stronger
storms potentially producing damaging wind gusts, waterspouts,
frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will continue across the northeast Florida
waters on Thursday and Friday, with less coverage currently forecast
for the Georgia waters. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will then
overspread all of our local waters during the upcoming weekend.
Outside of expected thunderstorm activity, southwesterly winds will
prevail with Caution conditions likely through the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents: Low to marginal moderate risk of rip currents is
expected through the end of the week at NE FL and SE GA beaches with
surf/breakers of only 1-2 feet due to the offshore flow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy High Daytime Dispersions Inland Through Thursday

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Severe Storms Possible Rest of
Week

A frontal boundary will remain over SE GA through Tonight, with
showers and thunderstorms expected to persist into the evening
hours. An active pattern looks to persist into this weekend as
another frontal boundary approaches the region, with daily showers
and storms over the area. Mixing of slightly drier air over interior
southeast GA through Friday will drop minRH values to around 35-40%,
but above any critical thresholds. Patchy high dispersions will be
possible on Thursday over southeast GA.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during
the next several mornings. As mentioned above, isolated to widely
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the
rest of today. Gusts up to 40-60 mph will be possible in these
storms as well as erratic winds in/nearby any storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures and record warm minimum
temperatures at our designated climate sites on Wednesday:

July 29:
KJAX: 101/2025   80/1877
KGNV: 100/2025   79/2025
KAMG: 99/2025    77/2017
KCRG: 101/2016   79/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  96  73  95 /  30  10  20  30
SSI  78  96  77  93 /  50  30  60  50
JAX  76  95  73  93 /  60  70  60  80
SGJ  76  93  74  91 /  50  50  40  80
GNV  75  92  73  91 /  70  60  50  80
OCF  76  91  75  91 /  70  70  40  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-
     023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-137-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-322-325-333-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038-138-140-
     240-340.
GA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ153-
     154-162-163-165-166-264-350-364.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-
     151-152-250.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$