115
FXUS62 KJAX 112344
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
744 PM EDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Strong TStorms Tonight. Isolated Strong Storms Possible
from the I-10 Corridor northward across SE GA. Hazards: Wind Gusts of
40-50 mph, Frequent Lightning & Small Hail

- Small Craft Advisories the Waters North of St. Augustine Late
Tonight

- High Risk for Rip Currents at Area Beaches Tues through Wed

- Beneficial Rainfall and Isolated TStorms Tuesday through Wednesday,

- Mainly for Northeast & North Central FL. Strong Storms Possible for
Portions of Northeast & North Central FL

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered Thunderstorms Tonight. Strong to Isolated Severe
  Storms will Be Possible for Locations South of I-10. Main
  Thunderstorm Hazards: Strong Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent
  Lightning Strikes, and Hail.

- Strengthening Northeasterly Winds are Expected Across the Atlantic
Waters North of St. Augustine Late Tonight and Early Tuesday
Morning. Small Craft Advisories Will Begin After Midnight Tonight
for the Georgia Waters. High Risk for Rip Currentss Expected at Area
Beaches on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Beneficial Rainfall and Isolated Thunderstorms Expected to
Overspread Locations Along the I-10 Corridor After Midnight Tonight.

Afternoon surface analysis depicts a cold front draped from the
coastal Carolina region across southern GA and AL, with a weak wave
of low pressure developing along this boundary along the northern
Gulf coast. Meanwhile, strong high pressure (1028 millibars) was
building over the Great Lakes in the wake of this cold front.
Aloft...troughing was digging southeastward from the eastern Great
Lakes towards New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, with fast
zonal flow located south of this trough across the Deep South as
stout ridging remains in place over the Greater Antilles and the
Bahamas. A potent shortwave trough embedded within this zonal flow
pattern was traversing eastern Texas, with this feature sparking a
mesoscale convective system (MCS) from coastal Louisiana and
Mississippi southward through central portions of the Gulf. Latest
GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that
deeper moisture remains in place for locations south of Interstate
10, where PWATs were generally in the 1.75 - 2 inch range, while a
drier air mass was located over southeast GA, where PWAT values were
mostly in the 1.25 -1.5 inch range. Widely scattered convection was
developing where deeper moisture remains in place, with activity
mostly over Alachua and Putnam Counties moving slowly eastward.  A
shallower cumulus field was located within he drier air mass for
locations north of the Interstate 10 corridor, where temperatures at
19Z were generally in the 85-90 degree range, with dewpoints mostly
in the mid 60s. Inland temperatures across northeast and north
central FL were in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with dewpoints
generally in the 65-70 range. A pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary
was slowly pushing inland from the northeast FL beaches, where
dewpoints have climbed to the 70-75 range following the passage of
this boundary.

Scattered convection will continue to propagate slowly eastward this
afternoon through early this evening for locations along and south
of the I-10 corridor. Mesoscale boundary collisions occurring in
this warm, humid and unstable environment may cause storms to pulse
to strong or even briefly severe levels on an isolated basis,
especially later this afternoon along the I-95 corridor as
convection encounters the pinned, slow moving Atlantic sea breeze
boundary. Stronger storms over coastal northeast FL will be capable
of producing localized downburst winds of 40-60 mph, frequent
lightning strikes, heavy downpours, and hail. Activity should wane
during the mid to late evening hours before the aforementioned
potent shortwave trough approaches our region from the west.

Meanwhile, troughing progressing across New England and the Mid-
Atlantic states this evening will move offshore by late Tuesday
morning, with the front decelerating as its support aloft begins to
depart. The front should cross the FL/GA border towards midnight,
and the weak wave of low pressure to our west and the approaching
potent shortwave trough will result in strengthening isentropic lift
from west to east during the overnight and predawn hours. Our local
pressure gradient will also tighten along the southeast GA coast
late tonight as high pressure building towards the Mid-Atlantic
states wedges down the southeastern seaboard, likely creating a
surge of north to northeasterly winds before sunrise for coastal
southeast GA, with this wind surge then traveling down the northeast
FL coast around or after sunrise. Deeper moisture currently in
place south of the I-10 corridor will shift northward tonight, and
beneficial rainfall will develop during the overnight and predawn
hours, mainly along and north of I-10. A few elevated thunderstorms
will be possible towards sunrise as temperatures aloft cool with the
approach of the potent shortwave trough. Lows tonight will range
from the low/mid 60s for locations north of Waycross, with upper 60s
and lower 70s expected elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to numerous showers and isolated T`storms Tuesday  and
Tuesday Night Across Northeast and North Central FL.

- Breezy Northeasterly Winds on Tuesday and Tuesday Evening,  with
Hazardous Beach Conditions and Small Craft Advisories.

- Widely Scattered T`storms Wednesday along the Atlantic Seabreeze.

A lingering stream of shortwave energy will span from the Gulf coast
and across the FL peninsula on Tuesday after the passage of a
frontal boundary during the early hours of Tuesday morning. This
will allow for scattered to numerous, widespread at times, showers
for much of the day across the area, with most activity focused
along northeast FL and north central FL. With the passage of the
front, winds will primarily be onshore from the northeast-east as
high pressure builds along the eastern sea board. Winds from 15-20
mph, with gusts upwards to 30 mph, along coastal locations will be
likely. With the onshore flow in place, the Atlantic sea breeze is
expected to push inland meeting the Gulf breeze during the afternoon
hours, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing along the
mergers. With the coverage of showers and thunderstorms,
temperatures are expected to be relatively cooler than Monday.
Daytime highs are only expected to reach into the upper 70s along SE
GA locations and the I-10 corridor, with highs in the lower to mid
80s along the rest of NE FL. Activity will persist in the overnight
hours into Wednesday with coastal showers and storms lingering.
Overnight Lows in the the 60s areawide, with warmer temperatures
across NE FL.

By Wednesday, high pressure along the eastern seaboard will begin to
weaken and push offshore ahead of an approaching frontal boundary
from the northwest. Continuing easterly onshore flow will again
allow for the Atlantic sea breeze to push onshore and bring chances
of showers and storms as the sea breeze pushes inland with activity
dwindling by the evening hours. Daytime highs will trend higher than
Tuesday, with temperatures in the lower to mid 80s. By the evening
hours winds will steadily shift from the southeast towards the
southwest-west by Thursday morning ahead of the next cold front.
Lows will again be in the 60s areawide Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
- Dry Conditions late this week into the Weekend.

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend.

A period of dry conditions return during the back half of this week
and through the weekend as a cold front pushes into the area on
Thursday. Behind the front, high pressure builds over the region and
remain overhead over the upcoming weekend. There could be a few
showers/storms along the sea breezes, but not expecting the same
coverage as earlier in the week. Near normal temperatures during the
end of the week with temperatures in the 80s, with a few locations
in the 90s over north central FL. By the weekend, temperatures will
rise to above normal as most locations rise above the 90F mark, with
coastal locations in the 80s thanks to the onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
A surge of northeasterly winds is expected to arrive at SSI after
07Z, where surface speeds will become sustained at 10-15 knots, with
frequent gusts of around 20 knots expected through the rest of the
TAF period. Initially VFR conditions will give way to lowering
ceilings and increasing chances for rainfall accompanying the wind
surge as it settles southward across the Duval County terminals
after 09Z, with IFR conditions overspreading SSI, JAX, CRG, and VQQ
before 11Z. Strengthening north-northeasterly surface winds and
lowering ceilings will arrive at SGJ and GNV after 12Z, with IFR
conditions expected by 14Z. Periods of locally heavy downpours will
be possible after 10Z at the regional terminals, and PROB30 groups
for IFR visibilities have been inserted throughout the morning and
into the afternoon hours on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...


A cold front will cross the waters adjacent to southeast Georgia
late this evening and then the northeast Florida waters during the
early to mid-morning hours on Tuesday morning. A few strong
thunderstorms could impact the near shore waters late this afternoon
and evening, with frequent lightning strikes and briefly gusty winds
possible. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will then
overspread our local waters on Tuesday morning, with periods of
heavier downpours possible through Tuesday night. Meanwhile, high
pressure building over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states in
the wake of this frontal passage will send a surge of northeasterly
winds down the southeastern seaboard overnight tonight through
Tuesday morning, with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing
initially across the Georgia waters after midnight and then
expanding to the waters from St. Augustine northward early on
Tuesday morning. Showers and embedded thunderstorms, along with
Small Craft Advisory conditions, will continue through late Tuesday
night across our local waters. Showers may linger through Wednesday
before another high pressure center builds southward from the Great
Lakes states late this week, signaling a drying trend that will
continue across our local waters through the upcoming weekend.

Rip Currents:

A lower end moderate risk will continue through Monday evening at
area beaches, with surf heights generally around 2 feet or less
expected. A high risk is forecast at area beaches on Tuesday, as
northeasterly winds strengthen to 20-25 mph towards sunrise at the
southeast GA beaches, with this northeasterly wind surge likely
arriving at the northeast FL beaches during the early to mid-morning
hours. Surf heights will build to 2-3 feet on Tuesday at the
southeast GA beaches and 3-4 feet at the northeast FL beaches. These
surf heights will persist into Wednesday, keeping an elevated risk
in place at all area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- High Afternoon Dispersions Thursday
     NEAR CRITICAL MINRH VALUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER
- Inland Southeast Georgia


Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop Today and into
Tonight as a cold front pushes through the area. Higher chances of
showers develop on Tuesday primarily over northeast Florida. Winds
will primarily be from the northeast-east on Tuesday, with stronger
winds along the coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
likely along the sea breeze mergers during the afternoon hours.
Activity will begin to lessen by Tuesday evening, with coastal
showers/storms continuing. By Wednesday isolated showers/storms are
again expected along the Atlantic seabreezes over the US-17 and I-95
corridors. Dry cold front moves through Thursday, high pressure will
build overhead Friday and Saturday.

Dispersions will be in the good range on Tuesday despite breezy
winds due to low cloud cover, but increase Wednesday from higher
mixing heights. Drier airmass arriving on Thursday and increasing
transport winds ahead of and behind the dry cold front will create
widespread high afternoon dispersions. MinRH values will fall to
near critical levels Thursday and Friday over inland Southeast
Georgia.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Gusty and erratic winds expected in
and near thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  77  60  83 /  40  30  20  40
SSI  69  76  69  80 /  60  60  40  40
JAX  70  77  66  83 /  70  80  40  70
SGJ  72  81  69  83 /  80  80  50  70
GNV  70  82  65  86 /  70  90  20  50
OCF  70  84  67  86 /  30  80  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through late
     Tuesday night for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through late
     Tuesday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-
     470.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ452-
     472.

&&

$$