941
FXUS62 KJAX 311819
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
219 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue this Weekend. Moderate
  Tidal Flooding Continues Along the St Johns River in Putnam.
  Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Elsewhere Along the St Johns
  River in NE FL

- Atlantic Coast and ICWW Today. High Risk for Rip Currents with
  High Surf at the beach south of St Augustine into Flagler
  Beach. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Sunday. Breezy
  Gusts at the Beaches Today and Sunday (around 30-35 mph)

- Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for NE FL Coast. Isolated
  Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Rainfall
  amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 for Northeast FL

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues within the St
  Johns River basin

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

Scattered showers will spread onshore today, first along the coast
of SE GA early this afternoon ahead of a slowly sinking cold front.
As the front sinks to the FL/GA state line, the showers, driven by
coastal convergence, increasing moisture levels, and lift from the
front will shift southward to the Jacksonville visitant and the
I- 10 corridor by the mid to late afternoon hours with a few
brief showers even drifting into the NE FL coast southward to
Flagler Beach and Palm Coast areas. Overall rainfall amounts
will be under a tenth of an inch, a bit higher at the immediate
SE GA coast. High pressure will wedge down the southeast coast
north of the front with NE winds increasing to 15-20 mph and
gusting to around 30 mph along the coast and 10-15 mph gusting
to 25 mph inland.

The elevated onshore flow will make for dangerous rip currents
at the beaches that will be dangerous for swimmers through this
evening and overnight

With plentiful cloud cover, highs will be in the upper 70s along the
coast and low 80s over the interior of NE FL west of the St Johns
river and inland Flagler and St Johns counties to near 80 over
inland SE GA.

All Hallows Eve, the sun will set (perhaps never to rise again) and
winds will quell inland to a gentile 5-10 mph while staying higher
along the coast 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Scattered showers along
I-10 will spread into the remainder of NE FL after the midnight hour
along with gloomy cloud cover overnight. Low temperatures will
be cooler over the interior of SE GA into the mid 60s with more
humidity and northeast flow providing for upper 60s along I-10
of NE FL and the lows along the NE FL coast. No frightful fog is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Slight Risk of Flooding NE FL Coast due to Excessive Rainfall Sun-
  Mon

Breezy ENE winds continue across the area as strong high pressure
over the mid-Atlantic wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rain
chances increase Sunday into Monday as a diffused stationary front
remains draped across central FL and an upper shortwave trough
gradually closes off the SW FL coast. Abundant moisture (PWATs 1.7-
2.0"), strong ascent and frictional convergence will lead to rounds
of showers capable of producing heavy rainfall moving through NE FL
and SE GA, mainly late Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly for NE FL south of
the I-10 corridor where the best lift will be. WPC has placed the I-
95 corridor of NE FL in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for
both Sunday and Monday where convergent bands could develop and
train over coastal areas. Rainfall amounts have trended downward
with this cycle but a few places could see 2-3 inches. Wet and
overcast conditions will keep temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s
during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential returns next week.

- Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone
  conditions.

Upper low over south FL on Tuesday weakens and gets absorbed by an
approaching longwave trough digging into the SE US mid-week next
week. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary over south FL lifts
northward as a warm front on Wednesday then a cold front moves
through the SE US Thursday into Friday. Scattered showers with
embedded thunderstorms are anticipated each day across the region
with ample moisture and lift. Onshore flow will shift to SSW toward
the end of the week with the passing cold front bringing relief to
the coastal hazards especially in the St. Johns river. Temperatures
will trend slightly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
The 18Z TAF period will begin with showers intermittent at SSI with
prevailing VFR ceilings scattered 2.5-3.5 kft and broken mid to high
level clouds overhead. Winds are increasing to 15 knots gusting to
25 knots at JAX and SSI and will spread to CRG and SGJ over the next
hour or so while inland sites increase to 12-14 knots inland gusting
between 20-25 knots this afternoon. Showers will be scattered in
coverage near the Duval county Terminals and along the NE FL coast
while chances too low near GNV through tonight.

Overcast high level clouds will lower to overcast mid level clouds
this evening. Keeping only VCSH at SSI this evening after 00Z as the
front weakens as it sinks into Northeast FL. However, inverted
troughing developing over the waters will redevelop showers late
tonight and have included a PROB30 group after 06Z for MVFR
ceilings and visibility restrictions from coastal showers moving
onshore. Winds will diminish some along the coast after 00Z to
10-12 knots and gusting to 20 knots with just under 10 knots
inland overnight. Low stratus developing inland should mainly
stay west of the TAF sites.

Sunday, showers will gradually increase in coverage across the area
a disturbance aloft arrives from the west with easterly winds
becoming breezy 10-15 knots and gusts to around 20 knots.

&&

.MARINE...


A strong high pressure ridge will build southward across area waters
today behind a weakening cold front. This ridging will then wedge
down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. A
slight surge in northeasterly winds today will return hazards across
the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary
frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida
peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local
waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region
towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the
northwest.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all
area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow
arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7
feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once
again this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT..

A weakening cold front sinking southward will lead to breezy east-
northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast
with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Waves of showers will move through
the area today and increase in coverage Sunday into Monday. Isolated
afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily for areas south
of I-10 corridor. Despite breezy surface and transport winds,
overcast skies will keep mixing heights low and maintain fair to
good daytime dispersions. However, lingering breezy winds along the
coast will lead to high nighttime dispersions tonight and Sunday
night. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly
by midweek as speeds diminish.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible
across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for minor coastal
flooding limited primarily within the St Johns river through the
remainder of the weekend. The exception is eastern Putnam county
where a Coastal Flood Warning continues at this time for areas along
the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage
are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds
increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the
St Johns river.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  76  63  79 /  10  20  20  20
SSI  65  76  65  75 /  40  30  50  60
JAX  67  78  66  77 /  30  60  60  60
SGJ  71  78  68  76 /  10  40  60  70
GNV  69  80  66  81 /  20  30  50  50
OCF  70  80  67  81 /  20  30  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ038-125-
     132-225-325-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ137.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday
     for FLZ138-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$