432
FXUS62 KJAX 071120
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
720 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at All Area Beaches Today

- Patchy Fog Possible Early on Monday & Tuesday Mornings Inland

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Early Evening

- Thunderstorms Possible Inland on Monday and Tuesday

- Increasing Chances for Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Late

- Afternoon Heat Index Values Rise to 100-105 on Fri & Sat

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Dry & Very Warm Conditions Continue
- Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches

Weak surface high pressure centered east of the region through
tonight will persist a rather light onshore southeasterly flow area-
wide. PWATs do start to increase from the west/northwest late this
evening and through tonight thanks to a shift in the flow aloft as
upper ridging starts to weaken/flatten, though this should not have
a significant impact on expected conditions today and tonight
outside of continuous high clouds and a very low chance (around 5-
10%) of an isolated shower over western portions of the CWA late
this evening and tonight. But otherwise, mostly dry and very
warm/hot conditions prevail today, with highs in the low to perhaps
mid 90s inland and upper 80s closer to the coast. Low temps also
continue to moderate, with upper 60s to mid 70s expected tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Mainly Afternoon and Evening Showers
and Thunderstorms, Mainly Across Inland Southeast GA.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at the Northeast FL Beaches.

Deep-layered ridging positioned over the northeast Gulf on Monday
morning will flatten during the afternoon and evening hours as a
shortwave trough progresses eastward across the Deep South. Moisture
levels will increase from northwest to southeast during the
afternoon and evening hours, with PWATS climbing above 2 inches
across inland southeast GA and for locations southward through the
Interstate 75 corridor in the Suwannee Valley and north central FL.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms should
develop at these locations as mesoscale boundaries collide within
this increasingly humid air mass, with activity potentially
extending into the evening and overnight hours, especially across
inland southeast GA. Thickening multi-layered cloud cover associated
with the approaching trough upstream should keep highs in the mid to
upper 80s for locations north and west of Waycross, GA, while
filtered sunshine elsewhere boosts highs to the low and mid 90s at
inland locations, while the afternoon sea breeze keeps coastal highs
in the upper 80s to around 90. Dewpoints should still mix down to
the 60s during the afternoon hours, keeping heat index values
generally below 100. Thickening multi-layered cloud cover should
overspread our region on Monday night, keeping inland lows in the
low to mid 70s, except mid to upper 70s at coastal locations.

High pressure building along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday in
the wake of a "backdoor" cold front that will dissipate over the
Carolinas will briefly wedge down the southeastern seaboard, shifting
low level flow to northeasterly and advecting a drier air mass
across northeast and north central FL, where PWATs will fall to
below 1.5 inches along the I-95 corridor during the afternoon hours.
Troughing aloft will weaken over our area, with leftover multi-
layered cloud cover keeping highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s,
except around 90 along the I-75 corridor. Isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms should remain confined to
interior southeast GA and perhaps northern portions of the Suwannee
Valley. Troughing should continue to shear out over the Deep South
on Tuesday night, with convection likely ending early in the evening
across inland southeast GA. Decreasing cloud cover may allow lows to
fall back to near 70 degrees at inland locations, ranging to the mid
70s at area beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Gradually Increasing Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms Late
in the Upcoming Week and Next Weekend.

- Summertime Humidity Returns, with Heat Index Values Climbing to
the 100-105 Degree Range Later this Week and Next Weekend.

High pressure will weaken by midweek as it shifts southward off the
southeastern seaboard, with ridging aloft over the U.S. eastern
seaboard setting up a return to the typically hot and humid June
weather pattern for our area. The unseasonably dry air mass that
advects into our area on Tuesday may linger into Wednesday along the
I-95 corridor, with isolated to widely scattered afternoon and
evening convection mainly confined to inland locations. Highs will
rebound into the lower 90s at most inland locations, with breezy
onshore winds developing in the wake of the inland moving Atlantic
sea breeze again keeping coastal highs in the mid to upper 80s. The
lingering dry air mass should again allow dewpoints to mix down into
the 60s at inland locations on Wednesday afternoon, keeping heat
index values below 100 degrees. Convection should dissipate early on
Wednesday evening at inland locations, with thinning debris cloud
cover overnight yielding lows in the lower 70s inland, with mid to
upper 70s forecast at coastal locations.

Deep-layered ridging will retrograde westward late this week,
allowing troughing to take shape over our region. Deep-layered flow
will likely become southerly, which will allow moisture levels to
increase from south to north, especially by Friday and Saturday.
Thursday will likely be a transition day, as PWATs climb to near 2
inches and a loose local pressure gradient allows the Atlantic and
Gulf coast sea breezes to develop by early afternoon and progress
inland. Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
should develop in this increasingly hot and humid air mass, favoring
inland locations, where mesoscale boundaries will collide late in
the afternoon and evening. Convection will become likely for inland
locations south of I-10 on Friday afternoon and evening, with these
likely POPs then expanding into portions of inland southeast GA by
Saturday, per long term model guidance blends.

The bigger story later this week and next weekend will be the return
of heat and humidity. Highs will soar to the low and mid 90s, with
heat index values peaking in the 100-105 degree range each
afternoon. Lows will only fall to the low to mid 70s inland and the
upper 70s at coastal locations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the majority of the forecast period.
Winds will peak around 10kts once again with a diurnal sea breeze
this afternoon and evening, especially by the coast and eastern
Duval terminals before easing after sunset tonight.

&&

.MARINE...


Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward
across our local waters through Monday, keeping unseasonably dry
weather in place. Breezy southeasterly winds will develop late this
afternoon across the near shore waters as the Atlantic sea breeze
pushes inland. Winds will shift to east-northeasterly on Tuesday as
another high pressure center along the Mid-Atlantic coast briefly
wedges down the southeastern seaboard. This high pressure center
will then weaken near Bermuda later this week, with gradually
increasing moisture levels developing scattered to numerous
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across our local
waters that will continue into next weekend.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk remains moderate at all area beaches
through the rest of the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Unseasonably Dry Weather Continues At Inland Locations Today
     LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FOR INLAND
- Southeast Georgia

An unseasonably dry air mass will remain in place at inland
locations today, where afternoon humidity values will fall to around
30 percent. Widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will be possible on Monday and Tuesday, mainly across
inland portions of southeast Georgia and along the Interstate 75
corridor. Otherwise, light surface and transport winds today will
likely yield poor daytime dispersion values across portions of
southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley. Strengthening easterly
surface and transport winds in the wake of the inland moving
Atlantic sea breeze will create fair to good daytime dispersion
values for portions of inland northeast and north central Florida.
Similar conditions will prevail on Monday, with elevated mixing
heights yielding good daytime dispersion values for inland northeast
and north central Florida, with fair values generally forecast
elsewhere. Surface and transport winds will shift to northeasterly
across our region on Tuesday, with persistent cloud cover likely
yielding poor to low daytime dispersion values across southeast
Georgia, while fair to good values prevail across northeast and
north central Florida. Chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will gradually increase from south to north later in
the upcoming week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog formation will be
possible at inland locations during the predawn and early morning
hours on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  88  71 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  87  74  88  77 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  92  70  93  74 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  88  72  90  75 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  93  68  94  73 /   0   0  20  20
OCF  93  70  95  74 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$