790
FXUS62 KJAX 281833
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
233 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding for NE FL Atlantic beachfront and the
  St. Johns River basin through this evening

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at local beaches

- Isolated Thunderstorm Activity Returns Mid to Late Week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Moderate rip current risk at Atlantic beaches

- Minor flooding will continue along the St. Johns River Basin
  during times of high tide through this evening

A weak stalled frontal boundary remains draped over the FL/GA border
providing a moisture gradient with PWATs around 0.8-1.1" north and
around 1.2-1.7" south of the boundary. The slight increase in
moisture combined with diurnal heating could trigger a brief shower
along the Gulf sea breeze as it shifts inland mainly for Marion
county. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail today. Highs today will be
above seasonable in the the upper 80s to around 90 with mid 80s
along the immediate Atlantic coast. Near seasonable lows tonight in
the 60s inland to the low 70s along the coast and St Johns river. A
slight increase in low level moisture will allow for some shallow,
patchy dense fog to develop around sunrise across inland SE GA and
NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Moderating temperatures, and slowly increasing moisture this period

- Scattered showers midweek over North Central FL

The stationary front draped across the local area will begin to
clear as its associated Low pressure over the Gulf of Maine shifts
further north. High pressure over the Atlantic will begin to shift
further north bringing southeasterly winds on Tuesday, then becoming
easterly by Wednesday as gusts of around 15 to 20 mph will possible
during the afternoon hours along the coast. With the switch to
onshore flow, moisture levels will steadily increase during this
period, with the highest PWATs over north central FL and coastal
locations of NE FL by Wednesday afternoon. There is a chance for
some showers and storms on Tuesday, a bit stronger onshore flow on
Wednesday, will bring relatively higher chances of showers and
storms across north central FL return by the afternoon hours.

Daytime highs during this period will primarily be in the upper 80s
to lower 90s on Tuesday. A bit `cooler` temperatures on Wednesday as
the onshore flow increases, with lower to mid 80s along the coast
and along the St. Johns River, upper 80s to lower 90s for inland
locations west of the I-95 corridor. Overnight hours will have
temperatures in the upper 60s across inland locations and the lower
70s along the coast. Some patchy fog will be possible during the
overnight hours, primarily for inland locations as near calm winds
and clear skies be present.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period (Thursday through Sunday):

- Potential for strong storms with heavy rainfall increases this
period

Thursday and Friday, mid/upper level ridging just off the SE US
coast remains as a closed mid level shortwave trough over the
southern/central plains moves eastward on Thursday and then opens up
and merges with a broad northern trough over the Midwest/Great
Lakes. This pattern will keep high pressure NE of the area bringing
a moist ESE onshore flow to the area as a surface low well to the
west moves ENE from northern TX to the Ozarks Plateau through the
day Friday. A weak warm front forming along the Gulf coast will
extend eastward into the area. This front will become a focus for
increasing coverage of showers with numerous shower coverage Friday
for much of the area. Warming high temperatures will increase
instability and along with the return of a very moist airmass (PWATs
over 2.00 inches, over the 90th percentile for early Oct) and lift
along the front and inland moving Atlantic seabreeze will support
increasing thunderstorm coverage with scattered thunderstorms for
much of the area on Friday. Most of the storms will be more of the
pulse nature due to weak shear the end of the week over the area.
Rainfall amounts Thursday through Friday will be overall a tenth to
a quarter of an inch with isolated higher totals around an inch.

Saturday, ridging aloft northeast of the region will extend SSW to
the northern Bahamas while strong shortwave trough diving SE from
Manitoba into the northern plains pushes shortwave energy through
the mid south and southern Appalachian mountains. This will cause
the surface low to move eastward through the TN Valley Saturday to
our north. A Gulf coast warm front will lift north of the area with
numerous showers over SE GA and less coverage over NE FL due to less
instability closer to the ridge axis aloft.

Sunday, the surface low near the Carolina coast will lift away to
the NE with an extending cold front approaching SE GA. The front
will move through SE GA towards the FL/GA state line and nearly
stall across NE FL on Monday as a wave of low pressure develops to
the west along the central Gulf coast and moves towards the area.
This pattern will bring numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms, through there is potential for higher rain chances
depending on the strength and timing of the wave of low pressure
moving in from the west through the area with high end potential
rainfall of 2-3 inches.

Temperatures will begin above normal with low 90s inland and near
normal along the coast in the mid to upper 80s. High temperatures
will trend to near normal by the end of the weekend into Monday with
highs in the mid to upper 80s due to more clouds and rain.
Low Temperatures will remain above normal in the low 70s inland and
the mid to upper 70s at the coast with below normal lows arriving
Monday night over inland SE GA as the cold front sinks southward
towards north central FL into early Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions with generally light and variable winds continue
through the period. Light SW winds become SSE later this afternoon
in the wake of the Atlantic sea breeze shifting inland. Patchy fog
will be possible for GNV/VQQ around 08-12Z. Have TEMPOs for lower
VSBYs.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure will shift over the region early this week with
prevailing west to southwest winds, turning southeasterly in the
afternoon nearshore from the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. High
pressure will shift east of the waters midweek with southerly winds,
turning easterly in the afternoon over the nearshore waters from
seabreeze circulation. Increasing moisture will bring a return of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters by late
in the week.

Rip Currents: Long period swells and elevated surf heights continue
to subside down into the 2-3 ft range today and expect a solid
Moderate Risk of Rip currents through Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Patchy High Daytime Dispersions Inland Thursday
- Patchy Low Daytime Dispersions Saturday Through Monday

The overall flow will steadily shift from the west-northwest to be
from the east-southeast by midweek as high pressure shifts northeast
of the region. This will allow for the dry air over the area to be
steadily replaced with moist air from the Atlantic. With the return
of moisture over the area, chances of showers and storms increase by
midweek with highest chances over north central FL as scattered
showers and isolated storms will be possible Tuesday through
Thursday. By the end of the week, the coverage of scattered to
numerous showers and isolated storms expands to include most of the
area, with higher chances across northeast FL. Decent dispersions
for much of the week, with some Patchy High dispersions on Thursday.

Fog Potential...Patchy fog over inland locations Tonight and
Tuesday Night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Astronomical higher than normal tides will continue into this
evening with Minor Flooding occurring during times of high tide
within the St. Johns River Basin and along the NE FL Atlantic
coast/ICWW. Water levels peak during high tide between 1.5 - 2 feet
above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) through this evening. Lingering
influence of this past weekend`s full moon and long period swells
will continue peak water levels rising  1.5 - 2 feet through Monday
Evening over Duval county portions of the St Johns river and
tributaries and also over the Northeast FL coast and Intracoastal
waters from Mayport southward to Flagler County.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  90  68  89 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  72  85  74  84 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  68  88  71  86 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  70  86  72  84 /   0  20  10  10
GNV  68  88  69  88 /   0  20   0  30
OCF  68  89  69  89 /   0  20  10  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ125-138-
     225-233-325-333.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ132-
     137-633.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$