374
FXUS62 KJAX 272240
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
640 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerously Hot & Humid Weather Continues Through Mid-Week. Heat
Advisories in Effect Today and Tuesday. Heat Indices up to 112
Possible. Heat Advisories Likely and Extreme Heat Watches Possible
for Wed

- Widely Scattered TStorms this Afternoon and Evening. Isolated
Strong/Severe Storms Expected this Afternoon/Evening. Brief Gusty
Winds, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Heavy Downpours Possible

- Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Tuesday

- Strong to Severe TStorms are Possible on Wed Afternoon & Evening

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Main Highlights For Tonight:

- Thunderstorm potential to continue into the overnight

A few thunderstorms will possible through around 2 AM Tonight, as an
upper wave moves southeast across the area. A few strong storms will
still be possible this evening.

Lows in the upper 70s along the coast, and mid 70s inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Reduced Thunderstorm Coverage Tuesday, Higher Storm Chances Return
Wednesday
- Potential for Isolated Strong to Severe Storms, Especially
Wednesday
- Heat Advisory Tuesday, Likely Needed Wednesday As Well

A cool front will drop southward throughout Tuesday and into Tuesday
Night, stalling over southeast GA for Wednesday and likely beyond as
well. Guidance is in good agreement with respect to some drier air
remaining in place aloft on Tuesday as seen on forecast soundings,
which will overall reduce convective chances, especially for
southeast GA. Therefore highest PoPs (generally in the 30-40% range)
will be found south of I-10 in northeast FL. Given the pockets of
drier air, localized stronger downbursts will be possible,
especially where the best lift from the east coast sea breeze and/or
mergers/boundary collisions occur. Though some drier air will allow
afternoon dew points to mix down slightly below normal for this time
of year, widespread high temperatures in the 90s to near 100 has
already prompted a Heat Advisory area-wide Tuesday, with forecast
heat indices generally in the 107-112 range. It is also worth noting
that Tuesday Night is expected to be quite mild as well, with
widespread upper 70s forecast and some areas possibly not dropping
below 80F. Along with near record high max temps, some climate sites
may also flirt with record high min temps Wednesday Morning.

The above mentioned front will drop even further south on Wednesday
as some energy from a mid/upper trough also drops southward with it.
These factors combined with the return of more robust moisture will
result in more numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms
across the area, some of which could be strong to isolated severe.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already highlighted much of
our area in a marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe storms, which
will likely be adjusted over the next 24-36 hours. Along with very
heavy downpours and flooding potential as PWATs exceed 2 inches,
strong downbursts up to 40-60mph are forecast to be the other
primary hazard as temps aloft look to be on the warmer side for any
hail development. More updates to be narrowed down through Tuesday.
Wednesday will be another very hot one prior to the onset of any
convection as well, with Heat Advisories being likely once again
with widespread high temps in the upper 90s and forecast heat
indices around 108-113F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

_ Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which
may become strong to severe

The above mentioned front looks to remain nearly stationary across
southeast GA late in the week as some shortwave energy aloft also
continues to come in waves at times as an upper trough slowly moves
east into the Atlantic. The front will start to lift back northward
a bit this upcoming weekend in response. This pattern will persist
higher chances for showers and t`storms for much of the long term
period. This setup will likely come with continuing chances for
strong to isolated severe storms given abundant moisture/lift and
some upper support. A more active pattern will drop temperatures
closer to normal for this period overall.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
The potential for isolated storms will continue through around 06z,
then dry weather is forecast for much of the overnight into Tuesday
morning. Convection is expected Tuesday afternoon, but coverage will
be below average.

Prob30 groups have been included for this evening, and again Tuesday
afternoon for locations and times when storms are most favorable.

&&

.MARINE...


A slow moving frontal boundary approaching the Georgia waters will
stall tonight and will dissipate on Tuesday. Light northwest to
northerly winds will prevail across our local waters today, with
only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly across the
northeast Florida waters. Winds will become onshore over the near
shore waters towards noon, followed by southerly winds briefly
surging throughout our local waters this evening, with speeds
generally remaining below Caution levels. Light prevailing westerly
winds are forecast on Tuesday, with the afternoon sea breeze
potentially triggering isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday evening, mainly for the northeast
Florida waters.

Another frontal boundary will sink into the Deep South late this
week, with this feature becoming stationary during the weekend.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible well in advance of
this front on Wednesday afternoon and evening across our local
waters.  Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across
the northeast Florida waters on Thursday and Friday, with less
coverage currently forecast for the Georgia waters. Waves of showers
and thunderstorms will then overspread all of our local waters
during the upcoming weekend. Outside of expected thunderstorm
activity, southwesterly winds will prevail and will strengthen ahead
of the approaching front beginning towards midweek, with Caution
conditions likely through the upcoming weekend and periods of Small
Craft Advisory conditions possible.

Rip Currents: A low end moderate risk of rip currents is expected
today and Tuesday at Northeast FL and Southeast GA beaches due to an
afternoon sea breeze and surf/breakers of 1-2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-Heat Indices in the advisory range for much of the area Today
through Wednesday.

-Patchy high daytime dispersions this week.

Some drier air will have impacts to shower and thunderstorm chances
both today and Tuesday, ahead of a frontal boundary that will drop
southward Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Through Tuesday, areas south of
I-10 in northeast FL will have the highest chances for these showers
and storms. Outside of these chances, hot and humid conditions will
be expected with heat advisories for almost all counties today, and
for the entirety of the area Tuesday. Good dispersions are also
forecast for all but the immediate coast through mid week, with some
patchy high dispersions possible north of about I-10 by Wednesday.
Chances for showers and storms also increase by Wednesday as the
same frontal boundary stalls over southeast GA.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during
the next several mornings. Heat Advisories are in effect for this
afternoon as well as Tuesday afternoon, and may be needed Wednesday
as well. Daily thunderstorm chances this week, with greatest chances
beginning mid week. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in and
near storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  99  78  98 /  30   0   0  50
SSI  79  99  82  99 /  10  10   0  70
JAX  77  98  79  98 /  30  20   0  70
SGJ  78  96  79  97 /  20  30  10  50
GNV  78  97  79  95 /  30  30  10  40
OCF  78  95  79  94 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136-220-225-232-233-236-322-
     325-333-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ021-023-
     024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
     232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
     633.
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>154-
     162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ132>136-
     149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$