055
FXUS62 KJAX 021147
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
747 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 736 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Another day of breezy onshore flow and passing coastal showers
mainly across northeast Florida counties, but wind gusts will be
weaker compared to yesterday with a weaker pressure gradient over
the area between surface low pressure east of southeast Florida
and high pressure north of the region. Peak gusts will near 30 mph
along the coast to 20 mph well inland. Coastal showers will
mainly impact NE FL zones this morning, with showers and isolated
thunderstorm potential shifting inland across NE FL into the
afternoon with diurnal heating and the sea breezes. Temperatures
will trend warmer with more sunshine compared to yesterday, with
maxes in the lower 80s coast to mid/upper 80s well inland, with
most locations still below average for highs today.

The main weather hazards today continue at coastal locations due
to frequent, deadly rip currents were a High Risk of Rip Currents
continues, as well as rough surf with breakers up to 6 ft especially
for the beaches near and south of Talbot Island.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A tight local pressure gradient will persist today, as low
pressure off the FL Atlantic coast moves only slowly northeastward
and strong high pressure continues to wedge down the southeastern
seaboard. Coastal troughing will continue to generate marine
stratocumulus clouds and bands of moderate to briefly heavy
showers that will occasionally move onshore, mainly for the
coastal St. Johns and Flagler Counties, where moisture levels will
remain closer to early September climatology. Otherwise, periods
of high altitude cirroform clouds will continue to stream across
our area as the aforementioned reinforcing shortwave trough dives
towards the southeastern states. Filtered sunshine and an
unseasonably dry air mass will allow highs to climb to the upper
80s to around 90 for locations west of the U.S. Highway 301
corridor this afternoon. Breezy onshore winds and mostly cloudy
skies will keep highs in the low to mid 80s along the I-95
corridor and at coastal locations today.

Low pressure will continue moving slowly northeastward and further
offshore tonight as high pressure weakens off coastal New England.
This weather pattern will allow the unseasonably dry air mass to
advect southeastward across the rest of our area overnight, which
should shut off coastal shower generation along the northeast FL
coast after midnight. Fair skies and decoupling winds will allow
inland lows to fall to the 60s, while a light onshore breeze keeps
coastal lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

The frontal boundary over south FL will begin to lift midweek as
high pressure north of the area will begin to shift away towards
the NE. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will
mainly be along north-central FL and coastal FL and GA, as
northeasterly flow will continue to bring moist marine air
onshore. Winds along the coast will begin to wane and shift to be
from the east as the high pressure shifts towards the NE on
Thursday. Dry air over SE GA will continue to bring isolated
chances of any showers and storms on Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday, slightly warmer temperatures with inland locations in
upper 80s to lower 90s, coastal locations in the mid 80s. By
Thursday, highs in the lower 90s for most inland locations while
coastal locations will remain in the upper 80s as onshore flow
continues to bring in cooler marine air.

Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s for inland SE GA
and NE FL. Coastal locations and north-central FL will see
slightly warmer lows, generally in the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

A cold front approaches the area from the northwest by the end of the
week and reach the FL/GA state line over the weekend. Isolated chances
of precipitation will once again be along the coastal locations of
NE FL and SE GA for much of the weekend. By Monday, an influx of
moisture from the Atlantic will increase the chances of
precipitation for most of NE FL and locations east of Waycross, GA
and towards coastal SE GA.

A warm up is expected this weekend as temperatures will rise to
the lower to mid 90s, trending a little above seasonal averages.
With the warmer temperatures, heat index values will also trend
upward with some locations possibly reaching past the century mark
during the upcoming weekend. By the start of the next week,
temperatures will cool down a bit as cool marine air moves inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Breezy NE winds increase this morning with sustained winds 12-15
kts at the coast with gusts 20-25 kts while inland speeds at GNV
will near 10-12 kts with gusts near 20 kts. Prevailing MVFR
ceilings were advertised at SGJ through the day, with TEMPO MVFR
due to passing showers at SSI, CRG and JAX over the next few
hours. Into the afternoon, shower/isolated storm potential shifts
inland toward GNV where VCSH was introduced at 18z. Rainfall and
wind magnitudes tapper off after sunset this evening, with multi-
layered cloudiness also thinning. The greater potential for
passing MVFR ceilings will be at SGJ through 06z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Low pressure centered off the east central FL coast will move
slowly northeastward today and tonight as strong high pressure
over New England continues to wedge down the southeastern
seaboard. Gusty northeasterly winds and elevated seas will
continue today, keeping Small Craft Advisories in place throughout
our local waters. Seas of 6-7 feet today will subside to Caution
levels of 4-6 feet tonight. Persistent coastal troughing over our
near shore waters will continue to generate bands of showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms through midweek. Northeasterly winds
will gradually weaken tonight and Wednesday, allowing for seas to
slowly subside below Caution levels. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will then decrease on Thursday and Friday as low
pressure offshore weakens and a series of frontal boundaries
stalls to the northwest of our local waters.

Rip Currents: Gusty northeasterly winds will continue today,
creating breakers of 5-6 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 4-5
feet at the southeast GA beaches. These values are just below High
Surf Advisory criteria. A high risk of dangerous rip currents
will continue today at all area beaches. Northeasterly winds will
gradually subside tonight and Wednesday, allowing breaker heights
to fall to the 4-5 foot range at the northeast FL beaches and 3-4
feet at the southeast GA beaches. A high risk will likely continue
for the northeast FL beaches, with a higher end moderate risk
expected for the southeast GA beaches. Moderate risks are then
forecast at all area beaches on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Water levels rose into minor flood levels during the Monday evening
and overnight high tides within portions of the St. Johns River
basin to the south of downtown Jacksonville, as well as within the
Intracoastal Waterway (ICCW) in coastal portions of Flagler and
St. Johns Counties. Persistent northeasterly winds will continue
to create trapped tides at these locations, resulting in minor
flooding around times of high tide through late this week. A
Coastal Flood Advisory has thus been issued, mainly for nuisance
type flooding around times of high tide. Water levels may rise
towards minor flood levels during times of high tide in downtown
Jacksonville later this week and during the weekend as the
upcoming full "Harvest" moon on Sunday, September 7th increases
the astronomical component to the already elevated water levels
from the current ongoing local nor`easter. Latest guidance
indicates that water levels will generally rise between 1.5 - 2
feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) around times of high tide
from this week through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  62  88  66 /  10   0  10   0
SSI  83  70  85  74 /  30  10  20  10
JAX  85  69  88  70 /  50  10  40  10
SGJ  84  75  87  73 /  60  20  40  20
GNV  88  69  91  69 /  40  10  30  10
OCF  88  69  90  71 /  40  10  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-132-
     137-138-233-333-633.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452-
     454-470-472-474.

&&

$$