787
FXUS62 KJAX 222358
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
758 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A cold front will begin to shift into SE GA this evening,
remaining across the area during the upcoming weekend. Showers
and storms are already moving across portions of NE FL and along
SE GA. Showers and storms are expected to continue to develop
during the afternoon to evening hours along the frontal boundary
in SE GA. With any shower or storm that do develop this
afternoon, heavy downpours are likely as there are PWATs in the 2"
to 2.25" range overhead. With a slow steering flow, most showers
and storms will be slow moving. This could cause for some
locations to measure a decent amount of rainfall amounts today. A
Flood Watch is in place this afternoon and through midnight
tonight for a good portion of SE GA as heavy downpours and slow
moving showers/storms will bring the risk for flooding along
urban and poor drainage locations.

With a weak westerly flow ahead of the cold front, the Gulf breeze
will continue to move inland through the afternoon hours, the
light flow is allowing the Atlantic sea breeze to push inland
towards the I-95 corridor and St. Johns River. Activity is already
developing along the mergers between the breezes and outflows
from earlier storms. The potential for some strong, possibly
severe level, storms will continue through the afternoon to
evening hours as more mergers between the different boundaries
are expected to continue. Main hazards for any strong to severe
storms that do develop will be downburst winds of 40-60 mph,
frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

Highs have already reached into the 90s for a few locations, but
developing showers and storms have brought most of the locations
back into the 80s. Overnight lows will reside in the 70s, with
warmer temps along coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A frontal boundary will lay out across the GA/FL line this period.
The combination of diurnal heating, ample moisture, and convergence
along the frontal zone will yield above average chances for
convection. The greatest precipitation chances will be during the
heat of the day, but with the boundary in the area, activity could
linger into the nights.

With the front stalled over the area, showers and storms may train
over the same areas, leading to the potential for heavy rainfall,
and localized flooding.

Temperatures will trend near seasonal averages this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Frontal boundary will remain stalled near the GA/FL line through
Monday night. The front is expected to move south across central FL
Tuesday, as high pressure builds to the northwest. The boundary will
sink a little further south Wednesday as it dissipates, and high
pressure builds to the north. The greatest precipitation chances
during the first half of this week, will be focused along and south
of the frontal boundary, as drier air will move in behind it. The
slow moving front will still be a focus for showers and storms, with
an increased potential for heavy rainfall.

High pressure will build to the northeast Thursday into Friday. An
inverted trough may develop along the local coast Thursday into
Friday. Moisture will increase Thursday and Friday, with
precipitation chances increasing from south to north. If the
coastal trough develops, higher chances can be expected over eastern
counties.

Highs in the lower 90s will be common Monday. For Monday night, the
location of the front will dictate how far the cooler and drier air
advects in. At this point, expecting lows in the low to mid 70s over
NE FL, and coastal SE GA, with upper 60s over interior SE GA. Highs
Tuesday will again reach the lower 90s. The cooler and drier airmass
will make it a little further south and east Tuesday night. Lows
across SE GA in the upper 60s will be common, except lower 70s
coast. Lower 70s will be common Tuesday night over NE FL, except mid
70s coast. For Wednesday through Friday, highs will trend near to a
little below average. Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will
be near normal south and east, and near to below further inland.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 751 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

The 00Z TAF period begins with VFR conditions as most of the Storm
activity has moved inland west of the TAF sites with lingering
showers over SGJ over the next couple of hours while showers are
reorganizing closer to a stalled frontal boundary over SSI with
isolated T`storms that may drift onshore through 03Z. After 06Z,
there will be MVFR ceilings and patchy fog developing inland
along and ahead of the front as it drifts very slowly towards the
FL and GA state line into early Saturday. Have posted some tempo
groups for MFR/IFR ceilings at JAX/VQQ/GNV after 07Z. Low ceilings
will return to MVFR around 2.0-2.5 kft after 13Z with light
southwest winds across the NE FL TAF sites and east northeast at
SSI along and north of the front.

Waves of showers and T`storms will develop due to extra lift from
the front as it sags south into NE FL with southwest winds 3-5
knots, then the Atlantic seabreeze will move onshore from 16-17Z
and through JAX and CRG between 18-20Z that will switch winds to
southeasterly 5-10 knots. Aided by the seabreeze moving inland
and interacting with storm outflows and the front, increasing
coverage of T`storms expected in the afternoon with the window
for stronger T`storms bringing MVFR ceilings/IFR visibility
restrictions from 18-24Z during peak heating and lingering into
the late afternoon due to the front over the area. Gusty and
erratic winds will also be possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Long period swells emanating from Hurricane Erin will keep
combined seas elevated through the weekend, especially offshore.
Small Craft should continue to Exercise Caution if venturing
offshore, where seas of 4-6 feet will persist through the weekend,
while seas near shore will range from 3-5 feet. Meanwhile, a
stationary frontal boundary over the Georgia waters will remain in
place through the weekend. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms
will impact our local waters from this afternoon through Monday
evening. The frontal boundary will then shift southward on
Tuesday, stalling across the Florida peninsula towards midweek,
resulting in a decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
for our area by Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas early next week will
subside slightly to 2-4 feet near shore and 3-5 feet offshore.

Rip Currents: Long period swells of 13-15 seconds will persist
through the weekend at area beaches. Breakers of 2-4 feet will
keep a high rip current risk in place today at all area beaches,
with this high risk continuing through Saturday for northeast FL
beaches. A higher end moderate risk is expected at the southeast
GA beaches on Saturday and at all area beaches on Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1139 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Light and variable transport winds and multi-layered cloud cover
in place across southeast GA today will generally yield poor
daytime dispersion values. Meanwhile, southwesterly surface and
transport winds for locations along and south of the Interstate 10
corridor will result in fair daytime dispersion values inland,
with poor values forecast for coastal locations. Similar
conditions will prevail across our area on Saturday. Southwesterly
transport winds will then become breezy by Sunday for locations
south of I-10, with westerly surface and transport winds forecast
elsewhere. Generally fair daytime dispersion values are forecast
on Sunday, with pockets of good values for locations south of I-10
possible. Rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to traverse our region through Monday before a
substantially drier air mass overspreads our region by Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1139 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Slow moving downpours developing over inland portions of southeast
GA late this morning will expand in coverage and intensity later
this afternoon, with activity likely extending into the evening
and overnight hours as a frontal boundary stalls over these
locations. Widespread 1-2 inch rainfall totals are forecast, with
localized totals in excess of 3 inches possible. Flood Watches
have been issued for most of southeast GA through midnight
tonight, with locations at urban and normally flood prone areas at
greatest risk from flash flooding later today and this evening due
to slow moving and possibly "training" downpours that repeatedly
impact the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center has placed
much of southeast GA within a "Slight" Risk (level 2 of 4) for
Excessive Rainfall today, with a "Marginal" Risk (level 1 of 4) in
place elsewhere, as localized flooding will be possible across
northeast and north central FL through this evening as well.
"Marginal" Risks will continue on Saturday and Sunday for our
area, as the stalling frontal boundary produces rounds of heavy
downpours and thunderstorms across our area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  86  71  88 /  70  90  30  60
SSI  76  86  74  88 /  80  80  60  70
JAX  74  89  73  90 /  60  80  40  80
SGJ  76  90  74  89 /  60  90  50  80
GNV  74  89  74  89 /  50  80  40  80
OCF  75  88  74  88 /  50  90  40  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

GA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-165-166-250-264.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$