262
FXUS62 KJAX 090550
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1250 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense Fog Possible Across the Suwannee Valley and North Central
  FL Late Tonight and Early Sunday Morning.

- Isolated Strong Thunderstorms Sunday Afternoon and Evening.

- Small Craft Advisories Sunday Night through Tuesday. Gale
  Warnings Possible on Monday Night.

- Elevated Fire Danger Inland on Monday and Tuesday.

- Wind Chill Values of 20-25 Degrees Early on Tuesday Morning

- Freezes Likely at Inland Locations Early on Tuesday & Wednesday
  Mornings. Widespread Frost Likely Late Tuesday Night & Early
  Wednesday Morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Low status ceilings are currently overspreading the regional
terminals, with IFR to LIFR ceilings expected to prevail through
around 14Z/15Z on Sunday morning. Southwesterly surface winds
sustained at 5-10 knots overnight and Sunday morning will make the
visibility forecast less confident, but MVFR visibilities should
prevail after 09Z, with periods of IFR visibilities possible
during the predawn and early morning hours. Ceilings should
gradually lift after 13Z, with MVFR conditions expected by 16Z and
then VFR conditions prevailing at the regional terminals by 18Z.
Showers and a few stronger thunderstorms are expected to develop
across southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley on Sunday afternoon,
with this activity potentially approaching SSI after 20Z.
Confidence was only high enough to indicate vicinity shower
coverage at the regional terminals through the afternoon and early
evening hours, with a PROB30 group maintained at SSI for
thunderstorms with briefly gusty winds and MVFR visibilities
through around 00Z. A majority of the shower activity will likely
occur in the 00Z-06Z time frame at the northeast FL terminals.
Surface winds will increase shortly after the noon hour on Sunday,
with sustained speeds of 10-15 knots expected after 17Z.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Mostly clear skies across the area at this time with weak surface
troughing oriented southwest to northeast over inland areas and a
surface ridge axis noted over southern parts of FL. Deep layer flow
is west- southwest with best PWAT values of about 1.6 inches across
the southern zones where there is some low level confluence. Models
suggest with the adequate moisture that a few showers or a storm
are possible in these southern areas later tonight given that we
still have about 1500 ML CAPE values this evening and the flow is
favorably southwest keeping some moisture in place from the Gulf.
Otherwise, guidance is still in good agreement that fog and stratus
will be the main impact weather later tonight so have not strayed
from that forecast, with areas/potentially widespread dense fog
for a good part of the forecast area. We still can`t rule out the
need for a dense fog advisory later tonight. For the update
though, some slight adjustments to the min temps and basically
just tweaks for the POPs over the far south zones, with Marion
county most favored for any precip tonight. Also made some slight
adjustments to the POPS for Sunday with the latest guidance
showing at least 20-30 percent chances late in the afternoon and
into the early evening ahead of strong cold front advancing into
the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1143 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Shortwave energy aloft and low level trough axis will continue to
push through SE GA with scattered showers and isolated storms
through the early to mid afternoon hours with heavy downpours,
small hail and gusty winds possible. Further south across NE FL
this energy aloft is weaker, with less moisture available, but
still expect widely scattered showers and possibly an isolated
storm as this feature pushes across NE FL and interacts with a
weak East coast sea breeze later this afternoon through early this
evening. Light SW flow off the NE Gulf tonight will lead to
widespread fog development along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL
around midnight, some of which could be rather dense with
visibility down around 1/4 mile during the overnight hours and
Dense Fog Advisories may be required for this region, but also for
points to the NE across the rest of NE FL and into SE GA as the
low level flow is just strong enough to advect this low level
stratus and dense fog all the way to the NE FL/SE GA coastline by
sunrise Sunday morning and expect this fog to linger a bit before
lifting a few hours after sunrise. The SW flow and low level
moisture will keep overnight temps above normal and only falling
into the lower/middle 60s area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1143 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected on Sunday ahead of
an advancing cold front pressing in from out of the northwest,
with a marginal chance for storms to become severe. Conditions
will clear on Monday as high pressure settles in over the forecast
area with gusty northwesterly winds building through the day and
then becoming more diminished over inland areas overnight.
Temperatures will drop sharply by Monday as cold air settles over
the forecast area with daily high temps dropping from out of the
80s on Sunday into the 50s and lower 60s for the start of next
week. Overnight low temperatures will similarly drop down from out
of the 40s and lower 50s down into the upper 20s and lower to mid
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1143 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Potential for overnight and early morning frost/freeze conditions
to continue through Wednesday. High pressure conditions will
dominate through the period with mostly clear skies, dry weather,
and mild winds. High pressure will gradually move off to the east
as a weak frontal boundary dips down into the region from out of
the north by around midweek, continuing the pattern of dry
weather. Temperatures will experience a warming trend through the
week with initially below average temperatures rising to be near
and slightly above average by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1143 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Southwesterly winds will gradually increase through Sunday ahead
of a strong cold front that will be entering the southeastern U.S.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this
afternoon and evening. This strong front will cross our local
waters during the overnight hours on Sunday night, with Small
Craft Advisory conditions overspreading our local waters during
the evening hours as westerly winds strengthen and then shift to
northwesterly after midnight. Strong high pressure building into
the southeastern states on Monday will result in occasional Gale
Force wind gusts on Monday night, when Gale Warnings may be
necessary. High pressure will shift eastward and will become
centered directly over our local waters by midweek, allowing for
winds and seas to gradually diminish.

Rip Currents: Low to Moderate Risk of Rip Currents will continue
through the weekend in the offshore flow, along with surf/breakers
around 2 feet or so. This trend will continue early next week as
offshore flow increases behind the strong cold frontal passage and
keeps surf/breakers around 2 feet or less through most of next
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 257 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

November 9:
KJAX: 88/1986
KCRG: 85/2018
KGNV: 88/1986
KAMG: 87/1986

Record low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday:

November 11:
KJAX: 35/1977
KCRG: 37/1991
KGNV: 31/1943
KAMG: 27/1943

November 12:
KJAX: 31/2011
KCRG: 35/2011
KGNV: 30/2011
KAMG: 27/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  41  53  25 /  30  40   0   0
SSI  81  46  58  31 /  30  40   0   0
JAX  85  47  59  29 /  20  30   0   0
SGJ  83  51  62  34 /  30  10   0   0
GNV  85  49  60  29 /  20  20   0   0
OCF  83  51  61  30 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday
     for AMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$