110
FXUS62 KJAX 160541
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1241 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dense fog this morning mainly along I-75 corridor but may push
  toward I-95 corridor by sunrise. Low visibility of 1/2 mile or
  less will be possible.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions offshore through the evening for
  breezy westerly winds.

- Extended Dry Spell through Next Week. Severe to Extreme Drought
  Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley. Drought
  expanded to expand next week. Be very cautious with outdoor
  flames check for local burning bans.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

Southwesterly breezes started to increase this evening as a
strong low pressure system, crossing New England, pushed its
attendant cold front into the southeastern US. This wind response
will lead to a steady westerly breeze which should push Gulf
moisture into the Suwannee Valley over the next few hours. Fog
development will be in favorable this morning as an advective
dense fog event takes shape across the Suwannee Valley. However,
fog and low stratus may push clear across NE FL, reaching the
Atlantic coast around daybreak. There`s a chance that Dense Fog
will develop by 2-3 AM across the Suwannee Valley and may spread
east toward the St Johns River. That said, Dense Fog Advisories
may be needed to highlight the low visibility concerns. Given the
breeze westerly flow, any fog that materialized should lift
quickly with visibility improving after sunrise and fog
dissipating between 8-9 AM.

Breezy westerly winds with gusts up to 25 mph are expected today,
peaking in the afternoon as the front make it`s approach from the
north. Decent mixing will help push temps to a warm 80 degrees
today areawide.

For tonight, the front will slowly pass through the region late
this evening with partly to mostly cloudy skies but unfortunately
no rain. Moisture ahead of the front may pool across north-central
FL early Monday morning, leading to another potential fog risk
across the southern zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)

High pressure conditions will dominate the weather pattern for the
beginning of the week with dry weather, mostly clear skies, and
cooler temperatures expected as the frontal boundary stalls over
Georgia and northeast Florida before beginning to recede on
Tuesday. High temperatures will range between the 70s and lower
80s for the beginning of the week with overnight low temperatures
cooling down into the 40s and 50s, with temps rising slightly by
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)

Dry weather conditions will continue through the end of the week
with a potential for showers overnight Friday add into Saturday
over inland areas as high formerly building over the region moves
off to the east, establishing a more southwesterly flow, and
instability ahead of an advancing frontal boundary pushes towards
the forecast area. Temperatures will trend above average through
the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Lower confidence in terminal forecasts along the I-95 corridor in
NE FL this morning. Kept a more optimistic forecast with VFR
conditions and a westerly breeze. However, there is a chance that
a LIFR low stratus layer that`s beginning to develop to the west
is advected eastward by the westerly winds. The more aggressive
and pessimistic forecast would push low stratus and fog in the Jax
Metro terminals by 10z-11z, requiring a forecast amendment. If a
more extensive low stratus does develop, it should lift and
scatter by 14z with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter as
westerly winds increase. Peak gusts will be around 20-25 knots
during the afternoon and wane early this evening.


&&

.MARINE...

Offshore winds will continue to pick up today ahead of an
approaching cold front that will weaken and slow as it reaches the
area waters late tonight and early Monday. The strongest winds
over the next few days will occur today with winds around 20-25
knots over the outer waters and 10-15 knots closer to the coast.
Small Craft Advisories have been posted for offshore waters from
Saint Augustine northward for today`s breezy winds. High pressure
will quickly build in from the north Monday and then move to the
northeast on Tuesday setting up a period of onshore flow. By mid
week, light winds will turn to the south and remain southerly for
several days as a frontal system organizes well to the west.

RIP CURRENTS: offshore flow will keep surf low and rip current
risk low today. A low-end Moderate risk is expected Monday into
Tuesday as onshore flow develops.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moisture levels will improve today with rising humidity briefly
ahead of the approaching front, but higher transport winds will
result in areas of high dispersion today for inland locations.
Critically low humidity values return north of I-10 on Monday for
inland locations. Moisture will gradually improve through the
week keeping humidity above critical levels, although no
precipitation is in the forecast this week, likely further
worsening drought conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  47  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  77  55  69  56 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  80  54  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  79  59  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  80  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  79  57  80  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ470-472.

&&

$$