Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
581
FXUS62 KJAX 241030
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
630 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Extended Duration of Coastal and Marine Hazards. Coastal Flood
Warning with Moderate to Potentially Major Tidal and Coastal-
Flooding around Times of High Tide Along the Atlantic Coast
and Within the Intracoastal Waterway and the Entirety of the
St. Johns River Basin. Wind Advisory for the Atlantic Coastal
Counties this Afternoon & Tonight. Windy Conditions Continue
at Coastal Locations on Sunday and Monday. Gale Warning for
the Atlantic Waters Saturday Afternoon through Monday. High
Surf Advisory & High Risk for Rip Currents through most of
Next Week. Major Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide
through most of Next Week. Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible for
Coastal Northeast FL this Afternoon through Tonight
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights: Through Tonight
The local pressure gradient continues to tighten today as strong
high pressure centered over New England wedges down the eastern
seaboard and an area of low pressure develops northeast of the
Bahamas. This will develop and sharpen coastal troughing over the
nearshore Atlantic waters bringing gusty north-northeasterly winds.
A Wind Advisory is in effect for this afternoon into evening where
gusts could reach up to 40-45 mph along the SE GA and NE FL coasts.
Breezy conditions linger overnight with the continued tight pressure
gradient. Waves of scattered coastal showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms will shift onshore through the day mainly to coastal
NE FL and then into the St Johns River basin and Ocala National
Forest. A few convergent bands may form along the northeast FL coast
bringing heavier downpours and localized flooding. If these bands
coincide with this evening`s high tide cycle, this could exacerbate
the already significant tidal flooding expected. Shower activity
wanes overnight. Due to the strong north-northeast flow, high
temperatures will range from the low 70s along the SE GA coast to
the upper 70s further inland. Overnight lows will range from the mid
50s in SE GA to the upper 60s along the NE FL coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Coastal and Marine Hazards Peak on Sunday and Monday, with Coastal
Flood Warnings in Effect Along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal
Waterway and St. Johns River Basin. Moderate to Possibly Major Tidal
Flooding Will Continue Around Times of High Tide.
- Wind Advisory Conditions Likely to Continue at Coastal Locations.
- Gale Warnings Continue for the Atlantic Waters.
- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf
Advisories and a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents at All Area
Beaches. Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major
Beach Erosion.
- Locally Heavy Downpours Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night.
A highly amplified pattern will prevail aloft across the country
late this weekend and early next week, with deep troughing along the
U.S. eastern seaboard, ridging extending from the lower Mississippi
Valley northward to the Great Lakes states, while another deep
trough progresses northeastward from the Desert Southwest across the
Rockies. Strong surface high pressure positioned over the Mid-
Atlantic states on Sunday will continue to wedge down the
southeastern seaboard, while a sharp coastal trough keeps a tight
local pressure gradient in place across our area. This high pressure
center will then gradually weaken as it shifts southward across the
southeastern states on Sunday night and Monday, but lowering surface
pressures to the south of our region will still keep a relatively
tight local pressure gradient in place across our area on Monday.
Wind Advisory criteria may continue to be met for coastal locations,
where sustained speeds of 25-30 mph are forecast, with frequent
gusts of 35-45 mph possible through Monday afternoon.
Sharp coastal troughing will yield enough low level convergence to
occasionally drive bands of moderate showers that will be oriented
from northeast to southwest onshore across coastal northeast FL and
the I-95 corridor and portions of the St. Johns River basin on
Sunday and Sunday night. A few training bands of showers could
contain heavier downpours, which could create some flood concerns
during times of high tide at coastal locations. The threat for
heavier downpours along the northeast FL coast may diminish by
Monday as a drier air mass advects into inland southeast GA,
shifting deeper moisture values southward over the FL peninsula.
Low stratus cloud cover will persist across most of northeast FL and
coastal southeast GA on Sunday and Monday, where highs will mostly
remain in the lower or mid 70s. A drier air mass over interior
southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley and north central FL should allow
for breaks in the stratus and stratocumulus to develop during the
afternoon hours, allowing highs to climb to the mid and upper 70s.
Cloud cover and breezy conditions will keep lows in the mid to upper
60s for most of northeast and north central FL, while clearing skies
allow lows to fall to the mid and upper 50s for inland southeast GA
and the northern Suwannee Valley. A gradual loosening of our local
pressure gradient on Monday night will allow for winds to decouple
overnight across inland southeast GA and northern portions of the
Suwannee Valley, where fair skies will allow lows to fall into the
upper 40s and lower 50s. Lows elsewhere inland and along the
southeast GA coast will fall into the 50s, while breezy onshore
winds keep lows in the mid to upper 60s for most of coastal
northeast FL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:
- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Moderate Tidal Flooding
Likely Around Times of High Tide on Tuesday Along the Atlantic
Coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and St. Johns River Basin. Minor to
Moderate Tidal Flooding May Continue for Much of the Upcoming Week
Within the St. Johns River Basin.
- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Persist, with a High Risk for
Deadly Rip Currents and Significant Beach Erosion Possible at Area
Beaches throughout the Upcoming Week.
Cutoff troughing and lower surface pressures will likely meander
around the Bahamas before developing zonal flow finally pushes these
features northeastward and away from our region late in the week.
However, a reinforcing high pressure center building over New
England later on Tuesday will begin to wedge down the southeastern
seaboard on Wednesday, likely keeping gusty northeasterly winds in
place at coastal locations for the duration of the upcoming week as
coastal troughing remains situated over our local Atlantic waters.
This long duration wind event will maintain significant coastal and
marine impacts as high astronomical tides persist next week.
A drier air mass that will overspread our area on Monday night and
Tuesday will be replaced by another surge of Atlantic moisture
towards midweek as coastal troughing sharpens and low level
convergence strengthens, which should advect showers occasionally
onshore for the balance of the work week. Gusty onshore winds will
keep highs mostly in the lower 70s along the I-95 corridor, with mid
to upper 70s prevailing inland. The lingering dry air mass on
Tuesday night should allow inland lows to fall to the upper 40s
across inland southeast GA, with 50s elsewhere inland, while 60s
prevail at coastal locations. Lows will then generally fall to the
55-60 range on Wednesday and Thursday nights, while 60s continue at
coastal locations.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions early this morning which will downgrade to
MVFR area-wide by this afternoon after 15-18Z as local Nor`Easter
conditions develop, which will include increasing NE winds to 15 to
25 knots with gusts to 30 to 35 knots at times, highest as the
Atlantic Coastal terminals of CRG/SGJ. MVFR CIGS will predominate
with periods of lower MVFR VSBYS in SHRA activity moving onshore and
mostly impacting CRG/SGJ with lesser chances at other inland
terminals and will need to include at least PROB30 for the SHRA
activity pushing onshore. TSRA chances still remain at 10 percent or
less, so will likely keep out of the forecast for now. Strong NE
winds will continue through the TAF period at Atlantic Coastal sites
but will weaken at inland TAF sites of GNV/VQQ after sunset tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
A combination of strong high pressure developing to the north, and
an area of low pressure to the southeast will result in a tight
pressure gradient over area waters this weekend into early next
week. Wind gusts increase to gale force this afternoon into evening
and are expected to continue into Monday. The high will weaken to
the north next week but winds and waves will remain elevated.
Rip Currents / High Surf: Breakers will build to the 6-7 foot range
today at the northeast FL beaches and 4-5 foot range at the
southeast GA beaches, with a high risk of deadly rip currents
continuing at all area beaches. High Surf Advisories have been
issued through Monday for our entire Atlantic coastline, and surf
will likely peak from Sunday through Monday, when breakers reach the
8-10 foot range at the northeast FL beaches and 6-8 feet at the
southeast GA beaches. High surf conditions may continue for the rest
of the upcoming work week at the northeast FL beaches, and a high
risk of deadly rip currents will persist at all area beaches, where
major beach erosion is likely to occur during this extended duration
onshore wind event.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
- Marginally High Dispersion Values Inland This Afternoon
ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
- During The Next Several Days
Showers will begin to move onshore along the northeast Florida coast
early on Saturday morning, followed by waves of showers throughout
the weekend and into Monday along the I-95 corridor in northeast
Florida, with activity occasionally extending to coastal southeast
Georgia and for inland locations east of U.S. Highway 301 in
northeast and north central Florida. Locally heavy downpours will be
possible this weekend along the I-95 corridor in northeast Florida.
Otherwise, dry weather will prevail across inland southeast Georgia
and the Suwannee Valley during the next several days. Breezy
northerly surface and transport winds early this morning will shift
to northeasterly by the mid-morning hours, with strengthening
surface and transport winds area-wide this afternoon. These
strengthening winds will create marginally high daytime dispersion
values across the Okefenokee Swamp and northern portions of the
Suwannee Valley this afternoon, with good values forecast elsewhere.
Gusty northeasterly surface and transport winds will continue
through Sunday night, creating elevated nighttime dispersion values
at most locations this weekend. Northeasterly surface and transport
winds will gradually diminish on Monday and Tuesday across inland
southeast Georgia and the northern Suwannee Valley, while breezy to
windy conditions continue elsewhere, yielding fair to good daytime
dispersion values. Elevated nighttime dispersion values will
continue at coastal locations for much of next week.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected during the next several days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Minor flooding will continue along lower portions of the Satilla
River during the weekend, with water levels forecast to fall below
flood stage by Sunday night or Monday near the gauge at Atkinson.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures from predicted values continue to increase as the
highest astronomical tides of the year arrive. We expect water
levels to reach minor to moderate flood levels during the morning
high tide cycle today along the Atlantic Coast and within the
Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River basin, with values
generally 1.5 - 2.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW).
Strengthening north-northeasterly winds today will combine with the
increasingly high astronomical tides to yield water levels reaching
moderate flood levels during the evening high tide tonight, with
water levels generally climbing to 2-3 feet above MHHW, which has
prompted the issuance of Coastal Flood Warnings along the Atlantic
Coast and within the Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River
basin. Peak water levels will likely coincide with the upcoming full
moon on Sunday/Monday Oct 25-26, and confidence continues to grow
with respect to peak water levels of 2.5-3.5 feet above MHHW during
the Sunday and Monday high tide cycles. Northeast winds will only
gradually decrease through the week, but high astronomical tides
with the lunar perigee on October 28th will maintain minor to
moderate tidal flooding from Tuesday onward, with higher
probabilities for moderate flooding continuing within the St. Johns
River Basin.
As the astronomical tide levels increase, the combination of the
building surf and water levels will lead to significant beach
erosion potential. This potential looks higher than the prior
northeast wind event around Oct 17th-18th, and the long duration of
this event could produce major erosion during each high tide cycle
for much of the upcoming week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 75 54 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 72 61 72 62 / 10 10 10 10
JAX 73 63 73 64 / 30 30 20 20
SGJ 75 68 75 68 / 70 60 60 60
GNV 77 64 78 64 / 10 10 10 10
OCF 79 64 79 65 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ038-125-132-
137-325-633.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-
124-125-138-233-333-433-533.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-
138-233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
FLZ124-138-225-233-333.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
Monday for FLZ124-138-225-233-333.
GA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-
166.
High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
GAZ154-166.
High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
Monday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ450-452-470-
472.
Gale Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-
470-472.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ454-
474.
Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for
AMZ454-474.
&&
$$