839
FXUS62 KJAX 170630
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
230 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Mean 500 mb ridge will be off the east coast of the FL peninsula
initially and will shift slowly to the northeast through tonight.
Sfc high pressure ridge will remain over the central FL area.
This will maintain the deep south and southwest flow over the
region through tonight near 10 kt. The mean flow is a bit more
southerly today compared to past days, which will likely allow the
east coast sea breeze to push further inland. So, with PWATs of
close to 2 inches again and the daytime heating, scattered
convection is expected to form once again mainly for the inland
zones. Temps aloft at 500 mb will be near average at about -7C and
may warm slightly tonight as strong subsidence and warming aloft
move as the mid level ridge moves in overhead. Main threats will
be locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong gusty
winds.

Tonight, isolated to scattered evening showers and storms will be
focused over inland areas from about I-75 to I-95 for northeast
FL, and from U.S. 1 to I-95 for southeast GA. Still could be a
strong storm or two in the 6 PM-9 PM time frame, similar to past
evenings. Convection should dissipate by about midnight. Based
HREF guidance, included some patchy fog over the west zones toward
the early morning hours where some low stratus is also expected.

For temps, highs in the lower to mid 90s expected and lows in the
lower to mid 70s. Max heat indices of about 100-106 expected today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

As deep layer ridging over the FL peninsula centers to the east
of the the SE US coast, drier air will be over the area with near
normal moisture levels about 1.50-1.8 inches. Underneath the ridge,
the associated surface high ridge axis will stretch across NE FL
from the Atlantic waters and promote southerly flow aloft. This
pattern will allow both the Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes to move
inland and merge near highway 301 Wednesday, but allow the Gulf
seabreeze to progress further on Thursday as a trough approaches
from the northwest and brings more southwest flow over the area.
Still expect scattered showers and T`storms developing in the
afternoon each day given aforementioned drier air involved.

Daytime highs will be in the mid 90s for most areas and low 90s
at the beaches due to an increase in heights with the lifting
ridge just to the east. Overnight lows will be a little above
normal in the mid 70s along the coast and low to mid 70s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Friday, a progressive mid/upper level trough north of the region
will move eastward off the Eastern seaboard with an associated
surface cold front dragging southward from the southern Appalachians
into the coastal plains of the Carolinas. On Saturday, the mid/upper
level trough axis will exit into the Atlantic and remove support
from the front, causing it to stall and slowly dissipate near the
Altamaha river basin as high pressure moves from the OH and TN
valley into the central and southern Appalachians. This pattern
will support numerous showers and T`storms as moisture pools along
and ahead of the front as it slows and stalls over southern GA.

By the end of the weekend and into early next week, ridging aloft
will build over the OH valley into the Mid Atlantic states, with
surface high pressure reforming east the Southeast US coast and
promoting easterly flow over the area. This will allow for a great
reduction in pops with isolated T`storms confined to areas well
inland.

Temperatures will begin the period above normal with highs in
the mid 90s away from the coast and low 90s at the beaches
and slightly lower into the low to mid 90s inland this weekend.
Lows will be near to slightly above normal in the low to
mid 70s inland and mid 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

VFR expected through the morning with possible MVFR vsby occurring
at VQQ soon. Light southwest winds near 5-10 kt expected by mid
morning with transition to the southeast in the aftn for the
coastal TAFs with the Atlantic sea breeze. Generally scattered
convection this afternoon and early evening so have PROB30 groups
for storms with details and refinement expected later as
confidence increases on t-storm affects at the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The Atlantic ridge axis will remain across the FL peninsula the
rest of the week with prevailing flow from the south and
southwest each morning and shifting to more south and southeast in
the aftn with the sea breeze circulation. Winds may reach up to
small craft exercise caution criteria in the evening hours for
mainly offshore waters. The ridge will lift up into the region
over the weekend with a lighter wind flow anticipated. Overall,
lower rain chances over area waters through Thursday, and then
increasing Fri into the weekend as a weak front enters the southeast
states and moisture increases again. Seas mainly in the 2-4 ft
range with short period wind waves and some long period swells
showing mainly 8-10 seconds, and weak energy at 14-15 seconds.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents indicated again in the
surf zone outlook, with surf of about 2+ ft and a moderately
strong longshore current flowing northward. This is likely again
on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  72  93  73 /  20  10  20  10
SSI  90  76  90  77 /  30  20  20  10
JAX  94  74  94  74 /  40  20  40  10
SGJ  92  75  92  75 /  40  10  20  10
GNV  94  73  95  73 /  50  20  40  10
OCF  94  73  94  73 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$