119
FXUS62 KJAX 280406
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1206 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Dangerously Hot & Humid Weather Continues Through Mid-Week.
  Heat Advisories in Effect Today. Heat Indices up to 112
  Possible. Heat Advisories Likely for Wednesday

- Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Today, mainly
  across NE FL, south of the I-10 corridor

- Strong to Severe TStorms are Possible on Wed Afternoon & Evening

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights For Today and Tonight:

- Very Hot and Humid, Heat Advisory area-wide, Heat Indices 108-112F

- Scattered afternoon/evening storms, mainly NE FL, south of I-10

Very hot and humid weather pattern continues today, as slightly
drier air mass aloft with PWATs of 1.6 to 1.9 inches will support
only isolated to scattered storm activity this afternoon/evening.
Max temps into the upper 90s over inland areas, with a few near 100F
readings expected from the I-10 corridor northward across inland SE
GA, generally middle 90s expected along the Atlantic Coast as the
West to Southwest steering flow will only allow the East Coast sea
breeze to push inland to the I-95 corridor this afternoon. These
well above normal temps and low level humidity will produce another
afternoon with peak heat indices in the 108-112F range and Heat
Advisory headlines are already posted from 11am-8pm. A few peak heat
indices around 113F will be possible along the I-95 corridor from
Brunswick to JAX metro area, but not enough confidence to issue
Extreme Heat Warning at this time due to some lingering high clouds
today that could remove a few degrees for expected Max Temps. The W-
SW flow off the NE Gulf will inject enough moisture across NE FL,
mostly south of the I-10 corridor, to support scattered afternoon
and/or evening storms along both the Gulf and East coast sea breeze
fronts and a few strong storms with gusty winds to 40-50 mph and
heavy rainfall possible, but the warmer temps in the mid levels will
keep the overall severe threat fairly low. Only isolated storms
possible across SE GA, as sea breeze remains pinned to the Atlantic
Coast there. Any convection this evening across NE FL should end
shortly after sunset, with fair skies and very humid conditions with
above normal temps as SW winds remain elevated at 5-10 mph and low
temps will only fall into the upper 70s inland and lower 80s along
the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with strong to severe storms
possible

- A heat advisory may be needed Wednesday

A frontal boundary will extend across area through this period. The
boundary will be over SE GA Wednesday, and closer to the GA/FL line
Thursday. The combination of ample moisture, and frontal convergence
will lead to above average convective coverage. On Thursday, with
the front closer to the GA/FL line, drier air to its north will
result in lower chances over interior SE GA.

Temperatures will continue above seasonal levels this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

_ Daily rounds of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which
may become strong to severe

The frontal boundary will wave north and south over area, but will
mainly linger over southern GA this period. Due to ample moisture,
and frontal convergence above average precipitation chances
forecast. A wave will move east along the boundary Saturday night
into Sunday, further enhancing convective coverage.

Temperatures will be above normal Friday, then trend near to a
little below for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and storms will linger along low level trough across inland
NE FL during the early morning hours, which may impact the KGNV
terminal and will need to keep at least VCSH or VCTS through at
least 09Z. Otherwise VFR conds with light and variable winds
elsewhere. Rainfall chances below normal at most TAF sites this
afternoon, and likely only need to include VCSH at JAX/CRG/VQQ,
while best chances at SGJ/GNV and will continue to include PROB30
groups for MVFR conds in TSRA activity, mainly in the 17-23Z time
frame. Too dry for any mention of shower activity at SSI. VFR conds
return to all sites after sunset Tuesday evening with light SW winds
through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...


Prevailing southwesterly winds are forecast Today, with the
afternoon sea breeze potentially triggering isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms through this evening, mainly for the
northeast Florida waters. Another frontal boundary will sink into
the Deep South late this week, with this feature becoming stationary
during the weekend. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
well in advance of this front on Wednesday afternoon and evening
across our local waters.  Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
continue across the northeast Florida waters on Thursday and Friday,
with less coverage currently forecast for the Georgia waters. Waves
of showers and thunderstorms will then overspread all of our local
waters during the upcoming weekend. Outside of expected thunderstorm
activity, southwesterly winds will prevail and will strengthen ahead
of the approaching front beginning towards midweek, with Caution
conditions likely through the upcoming weekend and periods of Small
Craft Advisory conditions possible.

Rip Currents: Low to marginal moderate risk of rip currents is
expected today and Wednesday at Northeast FL and Southeast GA
beaches with surf/breakers of only 1-2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-Heat Indices in the advisory range for much of the area through
Wednesday.

-Patchy to areas of high daytime dispersions this week.

A frontal zone will be over or near the region through the week, and
into the weekend, producing above average chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during
the next several mornings. Afternoon heat indices in the advisory
range for much of the area through Wednesday. Daily thunderstorm
chances this week, with greatest chances beginning mid week. Gusty
and erratic winds can be expected in and near storms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures and record warm minimum
temperatures at our designated climate sites on Tuesday and
Wednesday:

July 28:
KJAX: 104/1872   80/1885
KGNV: 100/2025   77/2014
KAMG: 100/2006   78/2014
KCRG: 100/2025   80/2014

July 29:
KJAX: 101/2025   80/1877
KGNV: 100/2025   79/2025
KAMG: 99/2025    77/2017
KCRG: 101/2016   79/2017

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  99  78  98  74 /  10  10  40  30
SSI  94  81 100  79 /  10  10  60  40
JAX  99  79  99  76 /  20  10  60  60
SGJ  95  78  98  77 /  30  10  30  50
GNV  96  78  96  77 /  50  10  30  70
OCF  95  77  94  79 /  40  20  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
     422-425-433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
     364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$