973
FXUS62 KJAX 020554
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1254 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding Continues for St Johns River through at
  least Tuesday night. Dangerous surf zone (Rip Currents and
  elevated surf) through midweek.

- Unsettled, wet weather continues through Tuesday. Localized
  heavy rain and minor flood potential this morning for north-
  central FL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Heavy rainfall and localized Minor Flooding possible for north-
central FL through sunrise

- Minor tidal flooding within the St Johns River basin continues

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

Steady rain and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue across
north-central FL zones through the early morning hours as the upper
shortwave closes off into a small closed upper low. Vorticity lobes
rotating around the developing low will eventually begin to drift
southwestward as it begins to retrograde after daybreak. Through
dawn it`s possible that an inch or two of rain may accumulate across
Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties. Without convective energy to
work with, the steady stratiform rain is unlikely to amount to
significant flood concerns through the rest of the night, though
minor urban flooding cannot be ruled out through the rest of the
early morning.

Shifting to today, the newly formed upper low will lose it`s
influence locally as it drifts back into the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile
the near surface convergence along the coastal trough will generate
bouts of shallow showers that will be push inland by persistent
breezy onshore flow, generally moving into the I-95 corridor and the
St Johns River basin. Though for many locations overcast conditions
and bouts of showers will continue today, there may be a bit more
filtered sunshine across inland portions of SE GA this afternoon as
subsidence increases in the wake of a departing shortwave. A bit
more sunshine will help afternoon temperatures to rise into the low
80s for some areas across SE GA while cloudier areas elsewhere only
warm to the mid/upper 70s.

Tonight, continued moist convergent flow will lead to additional
waves of scattered showers into the coastal zones through at least
midnight before tapering off. Temperatures will be very mild once
again for early November with readings generally in the mid/upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential midweek

- Slight Risk of Flooding NE FL Coast due to Excessive Rainfall Mon

Breezy onshore winds will become lessened by Wednesday as prevailing
flow shifts about to become more out of the south and then
southwest, ahead of an advancing cold front pressing in from out of
the west. Intensity of rainfall will decrease on Tuesday with
chances for showers and storms increasing on Wednesday as PWAT
values and instability ahead of the front crosses over the forecast
area. Coastal conditions are expected to improve through through the
period. Daily high temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will be in
the lower to mid 80s for inland areas and in the upper 70s near the
shoreline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the mid
60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s and lower 70s for areas
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone
  conditions.

- Drier conditions at end of the week and next weekend

Chances for showers and storms will diminish by the end of the week
and into the weekend as drier air and more stable conditions,
associated with the passage of the cold front, settle in over the
forecast area. Relatively mild winds and partly cloudy skies are
anticipated to be in place through Saturday and Sunday. High
temperatures will trend above average through the end of the week
with max and min temps trending to be nearer the seasonal average by
the beginning of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Steady stratiform rain showers will impact KGNV and KSGJ with MVFR
reductions in visibility through 12z. Whereas sites along and north
of I-10, including Jacksonville Metro airfields, are only expected
to experience vicinity showers with little visibility reduction if
any.

Unsettled weather will continue for area airfields today with
ceilings mostly VFR to MVFR through the period. Thunderstorm
potential remains on the low side but cannot be entirely ruled out
this afternoon at NE FL terminals. After 03z, shower activity will
dwindle and focus along the coast through the early morning hours
Tuesday. Winds will favor an east-northeasterly to northeasterly
direction this afternoon at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.
With a developing coastal trough tonight, winds will back toward a
NNE to NE after sunset with speed diminish to 5-10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...


Strong high pressure wedged along the coast will continue elevated
seas and small craft advisory conditions through at Tuesday. Though
winds will begin to decrease Tonight, lingering elevated seas will
remain through Tuesday night. High pressure will remain to the north
but with a weaker influence through the second half of the week
resulting in lighter winds and lowering seas. Bouts of showers and
heavy downpours will be possible through the middle of the upcoming
week, especially Today and Tuesday as coastal troughing develops. A
cold front will approach from the west Wednesday and pass across the
local waters Thursday night or Friday morning.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Dangerous surf zone conditions continue with a High rip current risk
at all area beaches through Monday and elevated to high surf for the
entire coast. The highest breakers, around 6-8 feet will be from
Ponte Vedra south through today. Improving surf zone conditions are
expected late this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weakening cold front settling southward will maintain breezy east
northeast winds through today, particularly along the coast, where
gusts up 25 to 30 mph are possible. Periods of showers will move
across the area, with coverage increasing late this afternoon and
evening, primarily occurring south of the Interstate 10 corridor.
Winds will gradually shift to the east early next week before
becoming southerly by midweek as wind speeds decrease.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not anticipated. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across
Northeast Florida from today.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Due to the persistent onshore wind, tidal levels within the St
Johns River basin and it`s tributaries have remained steady,
reaching minor flood levels at high tides over the last 24 hours.
This is likely to continue through Tuesday night before decreasing
Wednesday onward as winds diminish. Water levels are likely to
remain in the 1.5-2.0 feet MHHW (mean higher high water) range until
midweek. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the entire
middle and lower St Johns River zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  65  82  65 /  10  10  20   0
SSI  77  67  78  68 /  30  30  10   0
JAX  79  67  81  67 /  60  30  20   0
SGJ  77  70  79  70 /  70  40  30  10
GNV  81  68  83  68 /  50  20  40  10
OCF  81  69  84  69 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ038-125-
     132-137-225-325-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ138-233-
     333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154-
     166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$