603
FXUS62 KJAX 222307
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
607 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Monday: Fire Weather Watch south of US-82 in SE GA (includes
  all of NE FL)

- Cold Blast Returns Tonight with Nightly Freezes through Wed
Morning. Tonight: Dangerous Wind Chills in the low 20s Areawide +
Freeze Warning North of I-10. Monday Night: Freeze Watch &
dangerously low wind chills. Tuesday Night: Light Inland Freeze &
Frost Warning through Monday Afternoon

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEATHER CONCERNS PERIOD:

    - Breezy to Gusty Winds through the Afternoon (Wind Advisory)
    - Red Flag (Critical Fire Weather) Today
    - Freeze for SE GA & inland NE FL north of I-10 Tonight
    - Dangerously low wind chill values area-wide Tonight

A powerful arctic cold front, being driven by a low pressure system
that is currently deepening rapidly along the eastern seaboard, has
almost exited the region as of the noon hour. Well to the northwest
of the deepening low, a strong arctic high pressure will begin to
translate southward out of Canada resulting in an intensifying
pressure gradient locally.

That tightly packed gradient will result in persistent breezy-to-
strong winds through the rest of the afternoon and overnight. The
strongest winds are expected through the rest of the afternoon as
low level winds continue to respond to the bomb cyclone to the
northeast. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for wind gusts 40-45
mph through the early evening hours. Anticipate gusts continuing
overnight but should lessen to the 20-25 mph range.

Combine the prevailing northwesterly winds and gusts expected
tonight with the incoming arctic chill, it`ll feel like the low 20s
and upper teens across SE GA and the lower 20s across NE FL late
tonight and Monday morning. This has prompted the issuance of a Cold
Weather Advisory for tonight in addition to the current Freeze
Warning for inland areas north of I-10. Within the freeze warning
area, low temperatures will be in the upper 20s and low 30s while
mid 30s are expected else where across NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Nightly Freezes & Cold Wind Chills Mon/Tue Mornings

- Wildfire Danger

- Inland Frost Tue Night/Wed Morning

Dry weather with below normal temperatures this period and nightly
freezes.

After a morning freeze and cold wind chills in the 20s Monday
morning, highs will only warm into the upper 40s across SE GA to the
50s across NE FL about 15-20 degrees below average highs for this
time of year. Gusty NNW winds continue Monday with peak gusts of 25-
35 mph, just below wind advisory threshold, as latest REFS-CONUS
model runs has gust potential of 40 mph or more less than 5% for all
areas. Winds weaken into Monday evening as the surface high builds
eastward across the Gulf Coast region. There is high confidence of a
widespread freeze Monday night into Tuesday morning with hard freeze
(temps near 25 degC) inland and a light freeze at the coast, and the
Freeze Watch for this period remains in place. With lows near 25
deg, a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for portions of inland
northeast FL early Tuesday morning. Less wind Tuesday as the high
builds over the area with highs warming into the 50s to near 60, but
still below average. The ridge builds across south FL Tuesday night,
with a brief, light inland freeze possible and areas of frost more
favorable across portions of northeast FL where cloud cover will be
thinner compared to southeast GA. Confidence in a freeze is not as
high Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with cloud cover and
increasing SW boundary layer winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights:

- Warming Trend Begins Wednesday

- Needed Rain Chances Return Late Thursday and continue into Weekend
with Isolated Thunderstorm Potential

Surface ridge across south FL will bring the best chance of morning
fog across northeast FL Thursday morning with an approaching front
from the west increasing shower chances across southeast GA by
Thursday afternoon. Pre-frontal showers and isolated thunderstorms
could impact southeast GA as early as Thursday night, but are more
likely Friday as the front moves southward across the area under
weakening upper level dynamics. Although shear will be present, weak
mid level lapse rates and limited CAPE favor a low risk of severe
storms during this time frame. As upper level forcing lifts
northeast of the region Friday, the surface front begins to stall
across the FL peninsula into the weekend as a short-wave mid level
trough develops across the western Gulf and tracks eastward.
Depending on where the front stalls, this scenario could bring MUCH
needed stratiform rain to portions of the local area. There is also
the risk of more thunderstorm coverage, possibly strong next weekend
as the Gulf short wave trough becomes absorbed into a stronger long
wave eastern CONUS trough into the weekend. There is high confidence
of no freezes during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions and gusty northwesterly winds continue through the
TAF period. Gusts near 30kts will begin to decrease near 20 kts by
8pm.

&&

.MARINE...

Frequent gusts to gale force will continue through Monday
afternoon between a strong surface low pressure well northeast
of the region and high pressure to the west. Winds and seas
begin to subside Monday night into Tuesday as the surface high
builds eastward across the Gulf Coast states. The high will
extend across south Florida Wednesday as the next front
approaches from the west into Thursday. A low chance of
thunderstorms returns by Friday as the front slowly shifts south
across the local waters, likely stalling across the Florida
peninsula into the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for the northeast
Florida and southeast Georgia beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY FROM WAYCROSS
- Southward

- High Daytime Dispersion Values Today, Monday, And Wednesday

     ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES AND POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY
- Tonight

A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon for all of northeast
and north central Florida and for portions of southeast Georgia.
Despite some beneficial rainfall last night for areas north of
Waycross, elsewhere the amounts did not reach levels that would
significantly lower the potential to negate the ongoing Red Flag
Warning or the Fire Weather Watch Monday.

A cold, dry arctic airmass plunging southward through the region
this afternoon will result in critically low humidity this afternoon
between 2-6 PM as sustained winds hold around 15 to 20 mph with
gusts peaking around 30-40 mph. Winds will decrease but remain
elevated overnight resulting elevated overnight dispersion and poor
recoveries. On Monday, critically strong winds, low humidity, and
drought stricken fuels will yield a second day of Red Flag
Conditions from the Okefenokee NWR southward through northeast FL.

Winds will relax Tuesday as high pressure develops across FL, but a
long-duration period of low humidity is expected before humidity
trends high Wednesday onward.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: A light freeze is expected tonight
for inland locations north of I-10. Expect widespread freezing
temperatures Monday night. Widespread frost and a possible light
freeze are forecast on Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  30  48  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  33  50  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  32  53  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  35  54  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  33  55  27  59 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  34  55  26  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for FLZ021-023-
     024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
     232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-
     633.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for FLZ021-
     023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-
     225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-
     533-633.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-
     132-136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-
     340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-
     136>138-140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-
     422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
     FLZ023-024-120-220-322.
GA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for GAZ151-152-
     162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Monday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening for GAZ151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-
     364.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Monday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
     474.

&&

$$