263
FXUS62 KJAX 052339
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
739 PM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Northeast FL Beaches this Weekend

- Daily Heat Index near 105 through the Weekend

- Daily Afternoon/Evening Thunderstorms Through Next Week.
Strong/Severe Storm Risk Sunday Evening Southeast GA. Localized
Flooding Rain Risk through Monday

- Patchy Inland Late Night & Early Morning Fog

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Highlights Through Tonight:

- A dry night is forecast, with a bit of inland fog

A cold front will slide south into central GA Tonight. Dry weather
with partly cloudy skies expected. Low level moisture could result
in a few patches of fog overnight inland. Lows Tonight in the mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period: (Sunday through Monday night)

- Localized Flooding Rain Threat

- Severe Storm Risk Southeast GA Late Sunday

Plenty of moisture will be present Sunday ahead of an incoming cold
front from the north. Diurnal storms will spark up in the early
afternoon area-wide, with the focus for strong to severe storms
being later in the day as the front inches closer to southeast
Georgia. Overall, looks mainly like a wind threat with any strong to
severe development, although there remains the concern for heavy
downpours causing localized flooding concerns for most of the area.
The best chance for the severe storms will be over southeast Georgia
from the early evening through just after midnight. The front will
reach the Florida/Georgia state border during the overnight hours,
keeping a scattered shower and storm threat through the night. The
west/southwest surface winds ahead of the front will help bring in
more humidly, and cause high temperatures to be in the lower to mid
90s.

The front will remain stalled through most of Monday near the state
border, later sinking south into central Florida Monday night. The
increased moisture and instability from the nearby lingering front
will prompt numerous showers and storms area-wide on Monday. Highest
storm chances will generally be in the afternoon and evening,
although we will see activity overnight and in the morning as well.
Temperatures north of the front where surface winds have shifted
northeasterly will be a little cooler, in the mid to upper 80s,
while most of inland northeast Florida sees highs in the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period: (Tuesday through Saturday)

- Breezy Onshore Winds Tuesday & Wednesday

- Daily Thunderstorms Chances

- Elevated Tidal Levels with Approach of Sept 11 New Moon

Stronger onshore flow develops Tuesday and Wednesday behind the cold
front passage, lowering temperatures overall and keeping high
precipitation chances, especially for inland locations. As we saw
this previous week, showers will move onshore in the morning, with a
few isolated storms possible as well, with coverage and intensity of
storms increasing as they move inland later in the afternoons. High
temperatures will be in the mid 80s to low 90s, cooler near the
coast.

Thursday and Friday, temperature rise back up to near or just above
normal, with overall lower precipitation chances compared to earlier
in the week. Southwesterly winds will bring showers and isolated
storms off the Gulf, reaching the I-75 corridor area in the morning,
coverage then spreading throughout the day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
A dry night is forecast with prevailing VFR conditions. Spotty
inland fog could cause restrictions at times overnight.

The morning is expected to be dry Sunday, but cumulus clouds will
develop by mid morning, which could produce restrictions.

Convective chances will increase early in the afternoon, with prob30
and tempo groups including in the TAFs to reflect when most
confident with activity occuring at the sites.

&&

.MARINE...


Weak high pressure remains to the south of the waters today while
a frontal boundary slowly moves into the southeast states Sunday
through Monday. The weak frontal passage is anticipated Monday night
as high pressure builds to the northeast of the forecast waters.
A brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions is
possible mainly over the Georgia waters Tuesday. The front
weakens mid- week as high pressure builds south of the region.
Another front approaches from the north early next weekend.

Rip Currents: Seas/surf look to stay near or below 2 ft into
Sunday. There is a mix of weak wind waves and small southeast
swells.  As such, rip current risk will remain in the low to
moderate range for the area beaches for rest of the weekend and
probably into into first half of Monday as well. Monday afternoon
into Tuesday will see increasing chance of rip current as flow turns
to prevailing onshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy Low Dispersions Northeast Florida Monday

West to southwest winds this weekend will bring a more dominant west
coast sea breeze across the area. Morning showers and isolated
storms will begin to move inland form the Gulf, with rainfall
expanding in coverage into the afternoon and early evening across
inland areas toward the Atlantic coast where the east coast sea
breeze will be near the Interstate 95 corridor to the coast. There
is a risk of stronger to severe storms Sunday early evening into
Sunday night across southeast Georgia as a front moves into the
area. The front is expected to linger across northeast Florida
Monday, which will create low daytime dispersion, more cloudiness
and bring elevated rain chances through the day. Winds will
transition to northeast along and north of the front Monday.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds will occur with thunderstorm
activity. Patchy inland morning fog each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Coastal water levels begin to increase next week with the approach
of the New Moon on Sept 11th and breezy onshore easterly winds late
Monday through Wednesday, with the peak winds across the local
waters and coast Tuesday. At this time, extended probabilistic
guidance keeps water levels below action stage late Tuesday through
Wednesday both along the local Atlantic coast and within the St.
Johns River basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  94  73  87 /  10  50  80  80
SSI  77  92  76  86 /  10  50  80  90
JAX  75  93  73  88 /  10  50  70  90
SGJ  75  92  74  88 /  10  50  70  90
GNV  73  92  73  89 /  10  40  40 100
OCF  74  92  74  90 /  10  30  50  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$