492
FXUS62 KJAX 170440
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1240 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1238 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure ridge from the Western Atlantic builds westward
across the local area along with a southerly steering flow at the
surface. PWATs will fall below 2 inches, but still expect
seasonable scattered showers and storms along the East Coast sea
breeze as it moves inland and meets the Gulf Coast sea breeze
along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL late this afternoon, then
convection will zipper northward across inland SE GA through the
evening hours. These mergers will still provide for some locally
heavy rainfall and isolated strong/severe storms with gusty winds
to 40-60 mph. Convection should end by midnight across inland SE
GA and expect fair skies during the overnight hours with lows in
the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80F along the
Atlantic Coast. Max temps will remain at slightly above normal
levels with highs in the lower/middle 90s inland and around 90F
along the Atlantic Coast, these temps combined with dew points
generally in the middle 70s should push peak heat indices to
around 105F, still likely just below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1238 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

High pressure ridge to the east, will move more toward the southeast
Friday, as a trough of low pressure builds across the southeastern
US. A prevailing flow from the south is expected for Friday, with the
east coast sea breeze making it well inland, before intersecting
with the Gulf sea breeze in the afternoon. Therefore, the greatest
coverage for convection will be inland. Highs in the mid 90s and
lows in the mid 70s will be common for Friday into Friday night.

The high will continue to move away for the remainder of this
period, allowing the trough to dig closer to the southeastern coast.
The flow will prevail from the southwest Saturday, which will keep
precipitation chances more evenly spread across area, as the Gulf
sea breeze will move to near the east coast before colliding with
the east coast sea breeze.

Highs in the mid to upper 90s Saturday, and lows in the mid 70s
Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1238 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Trough of low pressure will remain along the southeastern US coast
Sunday into Monday.

The pattern for mid week, looks very similar to what just occurred,
with a low developing in the base of the trough over the coastal
waters, then moving west southwest across the forecast area.

Diurnal precipitation chances will increase each day this period,
with potential for the low tracking through next week elevating
chances later in the period.

Highs in the mid to upper 90s will be common Sunday and Monday, with
a few spots possibly reaching 100. With greater precipitation
coverage Tuesday and Wednesday, highs in the lower to mid 90s
forecast. Lows this period will be in the mid 70s. Local beaches may
hold in the upper 70s during the nights.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR conds through the morning hours as South winds remain elevated
enough to prevent any fog formation. Less moisture available along
the East Coast sea breeze and will leave out any mention of
rainfall chances this afternoon along the East Coast sea breeze at
SSI/SGJ/CRG, while chances high enough for VCTS at JAX, and
slightly higher to warrant PROB30 groups at VQQ and GNV, mainly in
the 20-24Z time frame for possible gusty winds and MVFR conds.
Convection ends by the end of the TAF period with VFR conds
expected after sunset for all TAF sites except for some VCSH
leftover at the GNV terminal until around 03Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A broad area of low pressure continues to shift westward across
the northern Gulf today while the Atlantic high pressure extends
across the local waters. The high will slide south and extend
across south Florida late Friday allowing weak offshore flow to
develop. Afternoon thunderstorm chances will be low through the
rest of the week and over the weekend but are expected to increase
over the waters next week as a trough shifts toward the area.

Rip Currents: A Moderate risk of rip currents is expected today
with S-SE winds around 15 knots and surf/breakers 2-3 ft and will
continue on Friday with a slight weakening of S-SE flow, but
surf/breakers will remain around 2 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  74  95  73 /  40  20  50  10
SSI  88  78  91  77 /  30  10  30   0
JAX  93  75  96  75 /  40  20  50   0
SGJ  90  76  92  75 /  40  20  30   0
GNV  93  74  96  74 /  60  30  50   0
OCF  93  73  94  75 /  70  50  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$