133
FXUS62 KJAX 140709
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
309 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Similar to yesterday morning, mid and high level clouds along the
east coast are dispersing northeastward this morning with
isolated showers and T`storms lingering across north central and
central FL where low level convergence along a weak trough
continues to feed a few T`storms. This activity will end during
the next couple of hours. Patchy, shallow ground fog is possible
where locally heavy rainfall amounts occurred yesterday, but no
significant fog is expected. Near to slightly above average
temperatures in the low to mid 70s will persist through sunrise.

As Bermuda ridge axis sinks south of the area today, a more SW
flow pattern will bring in some shortwave energy aloft ahead of
weak troughing over the lower and mid MS valley. This extra energy
when combined with well above seasonal PWATS 1.8-2.2 inches will
help spur more overall coverage of showers and T`storms compared
to yesterday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms by late morning
to midday will become more numerous this afternoon east of highway
301 into coastal counties as the Atlantic seabreeze slowly shifts
from the coast to I-95. Isolated strong T`storms may bring gusty
downburst winds of 40-50 mph where storm outflows and seabreezes
collisions occur, but otherwise locally heavy rainfall rates of
2-4 inches per hour could bring locally high rainfall totals due
to slow SW T`storm motion. T`storms will conglomerate along the
coast by late afternoon into sunset and wane as they shift into
the Atlantic waters by midnight with mid and high level clouds
slowly clearing after midnight. Light southwest winds 5-10 mph
will turn south to southeasterly at the beaches this afternoon.

Daytime highs will be a notch higher than yesterday with values
in the low 90s for most areas with around 90 to upper 80s over
inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley where more clouds will
persist from late morning onward to low 90s with peak heat indices
in the low 100s. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s away from
the coast and mid 70s at the coast and near the St Johns river.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Surface high pressure ridge will be across central FL on Sunday
and will then drift ever so slightly northward through Monday.
Deep layer flow will be southwest both days about 8-12 knots,
with elevated moisture values on Sunday with PWATS about 1.8 to
2 inches, and dropping slightly by Monday.

Sunday, fairly typical pattern and would expect to see convection
develop along the west coast sea breeze and low level convergent
lines over the southwest and west zones in the mid to late morning
hours. Convection should continue to blossom into the afternoon
and early evening as it moves toward the east coast. A concentration
of convection appears likely over the eastern zones as the southwest
flow meets up with the east coast sea breeze and timed with peak
heating. Isolated to scattered convection in the evening will
dissipate overnight with loss of heating, with movement of
activity to the east-northeast.

Monday, with slightly lower moisture values and mid level ridging
building, some lower POPs are warranted over what the NBM suggests,
and closer to the MOS guidance, which shows 20-30 percent. Will
go with a blend of NBM and the lower guidance to result in chance
to likely POPs (about 40-60 percent). Convection should become
scattered and isolated while diminishing Monday night with lack
of any other forcing and loss of heating.

Highs will be above normal in the lower 90s, with lows in the
lower to mid 70s. Heat indices will top out around 100-105 each
day, mainly inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Surface high pressure ridge will build further northward into the
area Tuesday through early Thursday while temps aloft warm and
drier mid level air filters into the region. This should result in
subsidence and lower rain chances (to about 30-50 percent at
best), but also warmer sfc temps. By late Thursday into Friday, a
modest mid level trough moves into the southeast states and the
sfc high will move further south. A weak cool front may move into
central GA by then. This will likely result in some uptick in
rain chances again so advertised up to 50-60 percent by Friday.
Could see some stronger storms by Friday given better forcing
aloft and cooler mid level temps.

Advertised highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The 06Z TAF period will begin with ceilings that are VFR levels
as leftover mid and high clouds slide north and east into the
Atlantic through sunrise. Shallow fog at VQQ will bring prevailing
IFR restrictions with tempo restriction to VLIFR at times 07-11Z.

Light south to southwesterly winds 5-10 knots will resume a few hours
after sunrise later today expected as Bermuda ridge axis sinks into
central FL with some energy aloft supporting more numerous showers
and thunderstorms developing by midday to early afternoon with
highest storm chances from 20-24Z as the Gulf seabreeze presses
well inland and merges with a more pinned Atlantic seabreeze that
will turn winds south to southeasterly 6-10 knots after 18Z at CRG
and JAX and by 16Z at SSI and SGJ. Thunderstorms will bring tempo
restrictions for MVFR ceilings and visibility in heavier storms
with gusty winds to 25 knots, but could potentially be a bit
higher locally. Storms will abate after 00Z with lingering mid and
high level clouds through the end of the period tonight with
light southerly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Bermuda high pressure will be centered to the east through this
weekend, and into next week, keeping winds generally out of the
south. Each day, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop over the coast and nearshore waters before
drifting eastward over the offshore waters by early evening. Seas
will be 2-3 feet nearshore and 3-4 feet through the weekend and
then resume to 2-3 feet across the waters into early next week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents are in effect today
and Sunday for all area beaches through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  72  91  73 /  60  20  50  20
SSI  89  75  89  76 /  70  40  60  40
JAX  92  73  92  74 /  70  40  60  20
SGJ  91  74  91  74 /  70  30  60  30
GNV  93  73  93  73 /  60  30  70  20
OCF  92  73  92  73 /  70  30  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$