132
FXUS62 KJAX 161720
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1220 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Small Craft Conditions Offshore Today

- Extended Dry Spell through Next Week. Severe to Extreme Drought
  Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley. Drought
  expanded to expand next week. Be very cautious with outdoor
  flames check for local burning bans

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

This afternoon...Mostly sunny, warm and breezy with Max Temps
around 80F ahead of approaching frontal boundary from the North.
Sustained winds around 15 mph with peak wind gusts in the 25-30
mph range from the West.

Tonight...Dry frontal boundary pushes through SE GA this evening
and slows down and stalls across North Central FL late tonight
with decrease in winds after sunset. Min temps expected to fall
into the mid/upper 40s across inland SE GA behind the boundary,
while 50s are expected elsewhere as the frontal boundary slows
down. Main impact tonight will be dense fog potential ahead of the
slowing frontal boundary as low level moisture pools from the NE
Gulf and helps to set up another combo radiational/advective fog
event across inland NE FL, mainly south of the I-10 corridor after
midnight, which should progress Eastward from the I-75 corridor
near GNV/OCF to the St. Johns River Basin south of JAX, impacting
mainly Putnam/Flagler counties towards sunrise Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

A vigorous mid to upper level shortwave trough over the New England
coast will lift northeastward through Nova Scotia and shift a deep
mid to upper level trough into the western Atlantic waters off the
Mid Atlantic coast. This will drive a cold front extending from a
strong low pressure center over New Brunswick south of the area on
Monday with ridging aloft over the central US shifting eastward and
supporting surface high pressure from the NNW building north of the
area. While skies will be sunny, light northerly winds turning more
northeasterly will limit highs along the coast to the upper 60s to
low 70s while warming to the mid 70s over inland SE GA and the
upper 70s to near 80 over inland NE FL.

Monday night, high pressure to the north will move across the
central Appalachians into the Shenandoah Valley/Blue Ridge of
VA allowing winds locally overnight to remain light but turn
more east northeasterly. High level cirrus will stream eastward
over the area as jet stream winds increase aloft while the cold
front to the south stalls over central FL and just north of the
Bahamas.

Tuesday, the high will move just northeast of the region near the
NC outer Banks as ridging aloft shifts off the east coast with a
weak shortwave crossing the OH valley. Skies will become sunny as
jet stream winds lighten and become northwesterly and allow highs
to warm into the low 80s over inland NE FL, upper 70s over inland
SE GA, but cooler at the coast with low to mid 70s due to easterly
light winds from the Atlantic nearshore waters.

Tuesday night, low level ridging will be over the area as high
pressure extends from the east northeast. This will promote calm
winds overnight and under mostly clear skies will support inland
areas of fog. Lows will be near normal around 50F over inland SE GA,
low to mid 50s over inland NE FL and the upper 50s to low 60s
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

The long term period will feature mid to upper level ridging over
the region from the eastern Gulf. This pattern will support low
level ridging staying over the area through Friday with increased
500mb heights aloft supporting near record daily high temperatures
each afternoon. Weak winds under low level ridging parked over the
area will support areas of fog developing across inland NE FL, but
south of Waycross. A weak seabreeze will develop each afternoon
with east to southeast winds with southerly winds on Friday as
surface high pressure moves eastward into the Atlantic waters. A
marginal potential exists for sea fog Thursday into Friday as
dewpoints recover into the upper 60s from the St Johns river basin
to the coastal waters due to southerly low level flow and sea
surface temperatures will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.
Further increase in dewpoints upward would lend greater confidence
in sea fog development and further forecasts will help determine
this potential.

This weekend, the ridging pattern changes with the mid to upper
level ridging shifting east from the Bahamas to Bermuda and the
western Atlantic as a shortwave trough moving eastward into the
Southeast states. The GFS global model is currently faster with
this next trough progression while the ECMWF is much slower with
a deeper trough emerging towards the mid south from TX on Sunday.
With timing differences, am placing only isolated chances for
showers over inland SE GA for Saturday with silent pops for
Sunday as increasing moisture ahead of the trough and southwesterly
flow may kick off a few showers despite uncertainty in the timing
of the system associated surface cold front.

High temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s inland Wednesday
through Friday with upper 70s at the coast.  Highs will lower
slightly this weekend with low 80s inland and near 80 at the coast
as southwest flow warms the beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR with breezy West winds at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-24
knots through sunset (2230Z), then light west winds around 5 knots
with some increase in high clouds ahead of the frontal passage but
still remaining VFR conds for all TAF sites except for potential
MVFR VSBYS at GNV/VQQ after 06Z, with possible lower IFR conds at
GNV, but guidance suggests only low probs so have left out for
now. The cold frontal passage will take place at SSI around 06Z,
then 08-09Z at JAX/CRG/VQQ, and by 10Z at SGJ, while MVFR vsbys
remain possible at GNV until just after sunset with frontal
passage, wind shift and VFR conds developing by 13-14Z time frame.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Offshore winds will continue to pick up this afternoon ahead of
an approaching cold front that will weaken and slow as it reaches
the area waters late tonight and early Monday. The strongest winds
over the next few days will occur this afternoon with winds
around 20 knots over the outer waters and 10-15 knots closer to
the coast. Small Craft Advisories have been posted for offshore
waters from Saint Augustine northward through tonight. High
pressure will quickly build in from the north Monday and then move
to the northeast on Tuesday setting up a period of onshore flow.
By mid week, light winds will turn to the south and remain
southerly for several days as a frontal system organizes well to
the west.

Rip Currents: Offshore flow will continue a low risk of rips today
with surf/breakers of 1-2 feet. Low to marginal Moderate risk of
rips Monday and Tuesday with a small uptick in swells and
surf/breakers to around 2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Moisture levels will improve today with MinRH values staying above
critical levels this afternoon ahead of the approaching front, but
higher surface and transport winds will result in areas of high
dispersions for inland locations. The front will move south across
the area overnight with high pressure building to the north with
light northerly winds becoming northeasterly later in the afternoon.
Drier northerly flow inland will lead to critically low MinRH
values. Lighter winds and lower mixing heights will bring fair to
poor dispersions to the area Monday. Tuesday the high will move to
our northeast with light easterly winds turning southeasterly in
the afternoon over Southeast GA. However, minRH levels will
approach critical levels northwest of Waycross. Fair to poor
dispersions in the afternoon hours will repeat Tuesday. Midweek to
Friday, warm and dry conditions will prevail with low level
moisture recovery, but no rain expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1211 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                          WED 11/19  THU 11/20  FRI 11/21  SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)     84/1958    86/1988    84/1991    84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)     82/1984    86/1988    82/2004    81/1997
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)     90/1906    88/1906    86/1973    86/1906
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)     82/1942    83/1942    83/2011    83/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  47  73  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  57  69  56  73 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  54  75  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  75  59  78 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  55  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  56  80  53  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ470-472.

&&

$$