227
FXUS62 KJAX 271129
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
729 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues at the Northeast Florida Beaches.
Moderate Risk at Southeast GA Beaches

- Scattered Thunderstorms Inland Late This Afternoon and
  Evening. Main Hazard Area: Inland Locations Along U.S. 301

- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms Beginning on Thursday. Heavy
Rainfall and Localized Flooding will be a Concern. Widespread 2-4
Rainfall Totals Forecast through Tuesday

- Hot and Humid - Daily Heat Index 95- 105F through Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening, with a few strong
storms possible
- High Risk of Rip Currents NE FL beaches

High pressure will be centered to the east this afternoon and
evening. The flow around this high Today will be from the south. The
east coast sea breeze will move further inland during the afternoon.
Convection is expected to initiate on the sea breeze, with this
activity slowly moving west. The high will become centered more
toward the southeast Tonight. This pattern change will lead to more
of a flow from the southwest, allowing Gulf moisture to push into
area. This will keep precipitation chances well inland going through
the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms Overspread Our Region from
South to North Beginning on Thursday.

- Strong storm potential on Thursday afternoon along the I-95
corridor.

- Heat index 95-105 degrees for portions of our area during the
afternoon hours on Thursday and Friday.

Showers and storms capable of producing heavy rainfall will develop
on Thursday and Friday as moist air is drawn in from out of the
gulf, raising PWAT levels upwards of 2.0 to 2.5 inches as high
pressure ridging withdraws to the east. Heavy downpours associated
with stronger and slower moving storms will be capable of causing
localized flooding. High temperatures through the end of the week
will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s with Heat Index values in
the upper 90s and even reaching over 100 degrees in some areas.
Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 60s over
inland southeast Georgia and in the lower 70s for northeast Florida
and for areas along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
- Waves of Showers and Thunderstorms Expected to Continue, with
Beneficial Rainfall Totals Forecast Area-Wide.

- Clouds and Cooler Temperatures Expected Early Next Week.

Bouts of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through
Saturday and Sunday as prevailing flow over the region shifts to
become more westerly as a frontal boundary to the north is
anticipated to stall in the vicinity of Georgia. Pattern will
continue on into Monday and Tuesday with convective activity and
rains likely to strengthen in conjunction with upper level
instability crossing over the forecast area.  Temperatures are
expected to dip to be near and slightly below the seasonal average
through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
A brief restriction in stratus will be possible this morning, but
the greatest chance for restrictions will occur this afternoon, once
the sea breeze moves in, helping to initiate convection. Have
highlighted the time range with the best chance for storms with a
tempo period this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...


Bermuda high pressure will be dominant again through Thursday night.
An incoming cold front will push the high pressure southward through
the end of the week as front itself stall just north of the waters
until Sunday. Breezy south southeasterly winds will increase again
to Exercise Caution levels which will keep thunderstorm activity
inland. By Thursday and through the weekend, offshore flow will set
up, pinning the Atlantic sea breeze near the coast and increasing
chances for afternoon thunderstorms across the area waters. A wet
pattern continues this weekend into next week as weak low pressure
moves along a stalled front to the north. As the low moves away
early next week, a surge of northeasterly winds may push into the
local waters bringing a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions.

Rip Currents:

One more day of breezy south-southeasterly winds and breakers
elevated to around 3-5 feet will result in a High Risk of Rip
Currents for northeast FL beaches. Slightly lower surf 2-4 feet for
the southeast GA beaches will keep risk at Moderate levels today.
Offshore flow will begin to decrease risk Thursday and through the
Weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A breezy southeasterly wind continues today ahead of the sea breezes
this afternoon. The Gulf breeze will make it farther inland today,
reaching I-75 early this evening, between 5-6 PM. Meanwhile, the
Atlantic sea breeze will be slowed by increasing southwesterly
transport winds, reaching the I-95 corridor around 3-4 PM. The two
sea breezes will merge near the US 301 corridor where scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop. Anticipate showers
and isolated storms to continue into the late evening and overnight
into the early morning hours Thursday. Breezy winds are expected
with the easterly sea breeze, with gusts around 15-20 mph.
Widespread waves of downpours are forecast area-wide from Friday
through the weekend, which may be followed by a late season cool
front early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
into early next week, but patchy morning fog will be possible in
areas where heavy rain fell during the previous afternoon. Erratic
winds are expected during periods of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  69  86  69 /  60  30  50  30
SSI  88  75  89  74 /  40  40  60  40
JAX  92  73  91  72 /  60  40  70  40
SGJ  90  74  90  73 /  40  40  70  40
GNV  92  72  88  71 /  30  40  80  30
OCF  90  73  87  72 /  40  50  80  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$