832
FXUS62 KJAX 180406
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1206 AM EDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- High Risk Of Rip Currents through Tuesday

- Thunderstorms this Week - Mainly Afternoon & Evening. Tue & Wed:
Inland Storms. Thu-Sat: Better storm chances focus toward I-95
Corridor

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- High Risk for Rip Currents at local beaches early this week

Today: Drier air mass with PWAT`s around an inch or less will push
into the local area on the south side of high pressure ridge axis.
This will lead to much lower rainfall coverage with only isolated
showers and/or storms across inland areas this afternoon, mainly
along the I-75 corridor along with a lower severe storm threat as
well. Max temps will push into the lower 90s well inland, upper 80s
along the I-95 corridor and middle 80s at Atlantic beaches. Breezy
East to Southeast winds will continue to develop behind the inland
moving East coast sea breeze with sustained winds around 15 mph with
frequent gusts to 20-25 mph at times through the afternoon hours.
This wind regime will continue a high risk of rip currents at local
beaches.

Tonight: Very quick end to any isolated showers/storms over inland
areas this evening, but the long fetch of East winds over the
Atlantic will start to trigger some widely scattered showers and
isolated storms over the Atlantic waters offshore tonight, some of
which could push onshore during the overnight hours, but overall
rainfall chances remain 20-30% or less for land-based areas. The
increased low level moisture will help increase patchy fog chances
over inland areas of SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North
FL towards sunrise Tuesday morning. Min temps will be close to
normal values with lower/middle 60s inland SE GA and mid/upper 60s
inland NE FL and lower 70s along the Atlantic Coast in the onshore
flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
- Daily thunderstorms each afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze
pushes inland towards the I-75 corridor.

- Rip currents at area beaches will be a concern; High risk likely
into midweek.

Onshore flow persists through midweek as High pressure remains over
the Bermuda region. Chances of precipitation return on Tuesday and
Wednesday as moist air moves in from the Atlantic, bringing PWATs
upwards to 1.5" each afternoon. With the inland push of the Atlantic
sea breeze, activity will be focused over inland locations towards
the I-75 corridor each afternoon. The onshore flow will continue to
bring breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts up from 15mph to
20mph possible each afternoon. The persistent onshore winds will
continue the risk for Rip currents through midweek. Daytime highs
each afternoon will be in the lower 90s over inland locations prior
to the onset of any showers or storms, while coastal locations will
have highs in the mid 80s. During the overnight hours Lows will be
in the 70s at the coast, while inland areas gradually fall to the
mid/upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily afternoon thunderstorms; best coverage and strongest storms
expected along the sea breeze mergers

- Increasing chances of showers and storms this upcoming weekend.

A frontal boundary pushes towards the SE US after midweek, but is
currently expected to begin to slow and stall north of the area by
the end of the week. As such, Thursday will continue the pattern
from earlier in the week. Onshore flow from the Atlantic, with
inland showers and storms as the sea breeze pushes inland. Looking
towards the weekend, the influence of the stalling front could be
enough to push the high pressure eastward. Which would allow for
both the Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze to push inland during the
weekend. With PWATs expected in the 1.5" to 1.75" range by the
weekend, we could see higher chances and wider coverage of showers
and storms as the sea breezes push inland and meet towards central
locations of the area.

Warm temperatures are expected during the forecast period as highs
will sit in the lower to mid 90s across inland locations and in the
mid to upper 80s along the coast. Overnight Lows will be in the 70s
area-wide.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
VFR with mostly mid/high convective debris clouds early in the
period. Only patchy MVFR fog possible at VQQ, otherwise VFR through
sunrise at terminals. On Monday expect lower rainfall chances and
only VFR conds with increasing East winds to 10-14 knots with gusts
to 15-21 knots at times with the passage of the East Coast sea
breeze. VFR conds continue as winds slowly subside through the end
of the TAF period Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE...


The Bermuda ridge will dominate through the week with a ridge axis
extending just north of the local waters. This pattern will bring
persistent east to southeast winds, with local wind surges each
afternoon and evening trailing the inland progressing east coast sea
breeze. Morning and midday showers and isolated coastal storms will
shift inland by mid-afternoon with generally clearing skies across
the local waters late afternoon into the evening.

Rip Currents:

A high rip current risk continues for all local beaches early this
week due to persistent onshore winds. An elevated risk will continue
through the end of the week due to prevailing ESE winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy High Dispersions Into Midweek

The combination of deep mixing and sufficient southeasterly
transport winds will generate generally good to high dispersions
inland each afternoon heading into midweek. Patchy high dispersions
will be present over inland locations Today and Tuesday. Moisture
will continue to filter into the area, leading to MinRH not being of
particular concern this week, with slightly lower values inland
Today, however they will be above critical values. Moisture will
steadily increases each day, with thunderstorms possible each
afternoon and evening, mainly for inland northeast FL through
Thursday, then area-wide Friday through next weekend.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Isolated thunderstorms each day
Tuesday onward. Patchy fog possible early this morning and
Tuesday morning for inland locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  62  90  64 /  10   0  20   0
SSI  81  71  84  73 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  87  68  88  69 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  86  71  87  73 /  10  10  10   0
GNV  92  68  92  69 /  10  10  30   0
OCF  93  68  91  70 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154-
     166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$