195
FXUS62 KJAX 281337
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
837 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Long-Duration Cold Weather Outbreak through the Weekend. Hard
Freezes Inland & Light Coastal Freezes Tonight. Additional Light
Freezes and Frost Possible Inland on Thurs & Fri Nights. Life-
threatening Wind Chills (Single Digits) Possible Sat Night & Early
Sun. Protect People, Pets, Plants, and Practice Safe Heating

- Gale Conditions this Weekend Atlantic Coastal Waters

- Saturday Snowfall Potential Decreasing. Probabilities for Minor
Impacts (Transportation) of 15-25% Across Southeast GA

&&

.UPDATE...
Cold conditions and a widespread freeze this morning and will
continue today with continental high pressure system situated
over the LA and srn MS area with a ridge axis to the north FL.
Some decent northwesterly flow just above the surface per
sounding (about 20-24 kt) with the parent high to the west.

The 12z JAX sounding showed a surface temp of 27 degrees and dewpoint
of 23 deg. Very dry air noted above the surface which suggests
we may get a bit drier air than forecast so have shaved off a
couple of degrees from the forecast dewpoints today which lower
min RH. Forecast highs on track for all zones 50s today. Otherwise,
minor adjustments for the sky with periods of mid to high
clouds passing over the area in association with a shortwave
trough. These clouds should still clear out tonight. Another
cold night and have tweaked forecast min temps down slightly
based on blend of guidance. Will be upgrading most if not all of
the freeze watch to a freeze warning for the update.

On the marine forecast, NW winds at 41008 show 16 kt and guidance
also shows potential 15-20 kt over area waters this morning. This
is reasonable given the wind on JAX 12z sounding had 24 kt at about
1000 ft. Thus, have extended the exercise caution headline until
11 AM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Cold and dry weather will prevail through today and tonight with
anomalously cold temps aloft. Relative to climate guidance has 850
temps around 3C, which is around the 10th percentile locally.

With the cold and slight northwesterly drainage breeze, current wind
chill were measuring at in the low to mid 20s, so elected to issue a
short-fused Cold Weather Advisory for the rest of the night. The
upper level shortwave will usher clouds in from the west which may
lead to some warming which may allow the cold weather advisory to be
ended earlier as apparent temps begin to rise. Otherwise, the Freeze
Warning will remain in effect through the rest of the morning with
temps climbing above freezing between 8-9AM.

For today, high pressure at the surface will be dominant while a
weak dry front pushes through this afternoon with the passing upper
shortwave. Mostly cloudy skies should begin to clear late in the
afternoon in the wake of the shortwave, leading to clear skies
tonight. This will set up another night of subfreezing temperatures
inland but unlike the last couple of nights, this will be a "light"
freeze. Light northwesterly drainage winds may keep frost from
becoming widespread tonight but certainly areas of frost are
certainly likely given the softening wind.

Temperatures will warm into the low/mid 50s this afternoon in SE GA
and into the mid/upper 50s in NE FL. Tonight, lows will fall to the
into the upper 20s inland and low/mid 30s closer to the coast. A
Freeze Watch remains in effect for tonight and is likely to be
bumped to a Warning later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure ridge will be overhead Thursday, then will build more
toward the northeast Thursday night into Friday morning. The region
will be in a progressive upper flow with weak disturbances moving
through bringing cloud cover. Temperatures will continue below
average through Thursday night, but will be near normal on Friday.

An area of low pressure will gather in the central Gulf Friday, and
track toward the local area. The low will move east across FL
peninsula Friday night bringing cloud cover and rain chances.
Temperatures will be below normal.

There is some question, as to whether the precipitation could
briefly mix with snow as area further develops off the coast late
Friday night. There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding this
potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The low is expected to strengthen and move off to the northeast
Saturday and Sunday. The chance for a light wintry mix extends into
Saturday, as the low pulls away, but this chance is fairly low.

The cold this period is expected to have the main impact. Highs will
largely be limited to the 40s over the weekend, with lows Saturday
night in the 17 to 22 range. A hard freeze is expected all the way
to the beaches. Due to the proximity of the developing low, winds
will also be elevated, pushing wind chills down into the single
digits across the forecast area.

It will be a little milder Sunday night, but still in the lower to
mid 20s.

High pressure ridging will build from the west Monday, and more
overhead on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain below normal Monday
and Tuesday, but not as cold as the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light NW
winds will increase back into the 8-10 knot range after 15Z. Light
to calm winds expected tonight. Much of the BKN high clouds are
expected to push out of the area by this afternoon or evening at the
latest.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure located to the northwest of the region will be the
prevailing weather feature through Friday, with a cool and dry air
mass persisting. A dry front will clip the waters this evening and
briefly elevate winds to Exercise Caution Levels through Thursday
morning. A Gulf low pressure system is expected to develop and cross
Florida and push into the local waters Saturday, then move off to
the northeast Sunday. As this low intensifies Saturday, Gale
conditions are likely to develop.

Rip Currents: A moderate to low risk today and Thursday. Surf
will lower from 2-4 feet today to 1-3 feet by Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Critically Low MinRH Values Area-Wide Today and Thursday, and
  again over the weekend
- Patchy low dispersions inland Thursday
- Patchy high dispersions Friday, with areas of high dispersions
  over the weekend

High pressure will prevail across area through Thursday night. An
area of low pressure will affect the region Friday night and
Saturday. Below normal temperatures will continue into next week,
although Fridays highs may touch seasonal averages.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
this morning or Tonight. Frost potential each night through Thursday
night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below:

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

Saturday, January 31:
JAX 40/1909
CRG 43/1977
GNV 47/1909
AMG 44/1948

Sunday, February 1:
JAX 42/1900
CRG 44/1980
GNV 41/1909
AMG 42/1980

Record Low Temperatures:

Sunday, February 1:
JAX 24/1977
CRG 29/1977
GNV 25/1977
AMG 22/1977

Monday, February 2:

JAX 23/1979
CRG 27/1980
GNV 25/1980
AMG 19/1951

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  28  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  55  34  53  41 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  57  31  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  57  36  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  58  30  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  58  29  62  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-
     023-024-030-031-035-038-120-132-136-137-140-220-225-232-
     236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-236-322-422-425-
     522.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     FLZ038-124-125-132-137-140-225-232-237-240-325-340-433-
     533-633.
GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Freeze Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for
     GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$