477
FXUS62 KJAX 311158
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
658 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Widespread Light Freeze Early This Morning. Freeze Warning for
  All of Southeast GA, Inland Northeast & North Central FL. Wind
  Chill Values Fall to 20-25 Early This Morning. Frost Advisory
  for Coastal Northeast FL.

- Light Freeze with Widespread Frost Likely at Inland Locations
  Late Tonight and Early Thursday Morning.

- Elevated Wildfire Danger at Inland Locations on Wednesday and
  Thursday Afternoons. Minimum Relative Humidity Values of
  20-25% and Westerly Winds of 10-15 mph on Both Days Inland.

- Small Craft Advisory Late Tonight and Early Thursday Morning
  for the Offshore Coastal Waters Adjacent to Southeast GA &
  Northeast FL.

- Isolated Thunderstorms & Beneficial Rainfall Expected Saturday
  and Saturday Night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Today...Cold high pressure will build into the Northern Gulf and
Northwest flow will continue to keep below normal temps in place
under Sunny skies, with highs in the lower/middle 50s SE GA and
mid/upper 50s NE FL. Surface winds will generally remain around
10 mph with gusts to around 15 mph at times through the
afternoon hours.

Tonight...High pressure ridge will build from the Gulf across
the Florida Peninsula just to the south of the local NE FL/SE
GA area. This will continue a West to Northwest cold flow and
expect another potential light freeze and/or widespread frost in
place for all inland locations with lows around 30F, while
lower to middle 30s are expected along the I-95 corridor east to
the Atlantic beaches. Frost and Freeze products will likely
need to be issued for most of SE GA and NE FL counties by the
day shift once the current Frost/Freeze warnings expire this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Mid/upper level troughing pattern over the eastern half of the
U.S. will begin to flatten as an embedded shortwave rotates
through the NE states to the New England coast. As flow over the
region becomes more zonal, this will shift weakening surface
high pressure over the central Gulf waters towards the FL
peninsula by late afternoon with westerly winds increasing to
10-15 mph as a cold front passes just east of the area as it
moves away from the SE coast. Skies will be sunny with cirrus
clouds arriving late and highs will rebound to near normal in
the low 60s over SE GA and the mid 60s over NE FL.

Thursday night, high level cirrus clouds will increase across
the area overnight as high pressure shifts over
central/southern FL. Lows will dip below normal in the mid 30s
inland with isolated low 30s north of I-10, upper 30s over
inland north central FL, and the low 40s along the coast.

Friday, zonal flow aloft prevails Friday downstream of a
southern stream shortwave impulse moving into the southern
plains. High pressure will move east across southern FL to the
northern Bahamas and local winds will become southwesterly as a
warm front lifts to our west from the Gulf coast to the TN
valley with increasing showers over the deep south. Increasing
mid and high level cloud cover will spread over the area, but
with cold air advection ending, highs will rise a few degrees
warmer than Thursday into the mid 60s over SE GA and upper 60s
over NE FL and around 70F over north central FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Saturday, southern stream shortwave trough will move through the
southeast states while northern stream energy dives
southeastward from Canada into the western Great Lakes
amplifying deep troughing east of the MS river. This will create
a wave of low pressure over the ArklaMiss region that will push
east across the deep south to the SC/GA coast through the day.
Southerly winds will veer to southwesterly above the surface
ahead of the low and moisture levels will increase above the
90th percentile to 1.3-1.5 inches and aid numerous showers
spreading northeastward from the Gulf coast over the Suwannee
River valley into SE GA by the afternoon hours. Isolated,
embedded T`storms will also develop with the heavier rounds of
showers in the afternoon, albeit mostly elevated. While strong
shear will be present over the area, low level instability
appears very limited to SW GA and Gulf coast in northern
FL/nature coast, so any strong to severe T`storm potential is
low at this time.

A round of showers and isolated T`storms will move across NE FL
Saturday evening with generally half inch to one inch totals,
with locally higher amounts up to 2 inches expected across the
area. Light showers will remain into the early morning hours
while light winds shift northwesterly under mostly cloudy skies
as a cold front sinks through the area behind the departing low.

Sunday, the cold front will sink south of the area by late
morning with winds becoming northerly as high pressure builds
in from the NW. Some low level moisture may hang back behind the
front over north central FL as a another wave of low pressure
forms along the front and treks ESE across central/southern FL
to the Bahamas, with drizzle lingering there and near the NE FL
coast.

Monday, high pressure will shift from the north to more to the
north northeast near the Delmarva peninsula with northeasterly
winds turning more easterly through the day. The onshore flow
will send Atlantic stratocumulus clouds across the coastal
waters as a weak coastal trough forms with some cloud cover
moving onto the first coast and into the southern St Johns river
basin, but showers are not expected.

Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will be over the region as a shortwave
impulse streaks eastward across the Great Lakes and the OH river
valley. Weak high pressure will shift from the deep south over
the area as a cold front approaches the region, but stays north
of the area. Light winds from the southwest will prevail with a
weak Atlantic seabreeze moving onshore in the afternoon.

Temperatures will begin around 5 degrees above normal Saturday,
cool to near normal Sunday and then trend above normal into
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. West-
northwesterly winds will remain sustained around 10 knots from
shortly after sunrise through around 21Z. Surface winds will
then shift to westerly towards 22Z, with speeds diminishing to
around 5 knots by 23Z and then continuing through 12Z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure building eastward from Texas will slowly
weaken as it pushes eastward across the Gulf tonight and
Thursday, becoming centered over south Florida by Friday. Gusty
northwesterly winds will continue through tonight with Small
Craft Advisory headlines in place for the offshore waters again
late tonight. Breezy westerly winds will prevail through early
Thursday evening before shifting to southwesterly while briefly
diminishing on Friday afternoon and evening. Weak low pressure
developing over the lower Mississippi Valley on Friday will
shift eastward across the southeastern states on Saturday,
moving offshore on Saturday night. This storm system will bring
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to our area on Saturday
and Saturday night, along with Small Craft Advisory conditions
for the offshore waters. Breezy northerly winds are forecast in
the wake of this storm system on Sunday and Sunday night.

Rip Currents: Southeast GA Beaches: Moderate Today, Low on
              Thursday
              Northeast FL Beaches: Low Today and Thursday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

West to northwesterly winds continue today, with cold and dry
air remaining over the region. The dry air will bring Min RH
values into the 20s area-wide again today. The driest air will
be over inland southeast Georgia with RH values in the lower
20s, a bit higher over northeast Florida where min RH values
will be in the mid to upper 20s. With winds 10-15 mph with
higher gusts up to 20-25 mph and ongoing drought, elevated fire
danger conditions expected over inland areas (both Southeast GA
and Northeast FL). Fair to good dispersions continue through
midweek. A gradual increase in low level moisture expected by
Friday. A low pressure system will bring a wetting rainfall to
the area Saturday into Saturday night. Dry conditions arrive by
midday Sunday into early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread frost and freeze
over inland locations early this morning with frost melting by
the late morning hours. Isolated thunderstorm potential
Saturday into Saturday evening, with locally heavier rainfall
amounts up to 1-2 inches. Fog not expected the next couple of
mornings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  31  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  54  38  63  42 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  56  33  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  56  36  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  56  33  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  57  32  65  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-
     023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-
     225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-
     533-633.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-232-236-
     237-240-322-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ125-138-233-
     325-333.
GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ470-472.

&&

$$