993
FXUS62 KJAX 282323
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
623 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Long-Duration Cold Weather Outbreak Continues through Early Next
Week. Hard Freezes Inland & Light Coastal Freezes Tonight. Light
Freeze & Frost for Inland Locations on Thursday Night. Protect
People, Pets, Plants, and Practice Safe Heating

- Record Cold & Dangerously Low Wind Chills Saturday Night & Early
Sunday Morning. Lows in the Teens Possible Inland and Lower 20s at
Coastal Locations. Windy Conditions Expected from Saturday Afternoon
through Sunday Morning. Life-threatening Wind Chills (Single Digits)
Possible Saturday Night & Early Sunday Morning

- Gale Conditions this Weekend for the Atlantic Coastal Waters

- Saturday and Saturday Evening Snowfall Potential Decreasing.
Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) of 15-25% Across
Southeast GA

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Rest of today into early this evening, shortwave trough will move
across parts of the forecast area and then southeast of the area
tonight. Highs expected to reach into the 50s this afternoon all
areas. Weak ridging aloft will move in late in the wake of this
system and anticipate clear skies across most areas. At the surface,
high pressure ridge will shift off to the northeast from the central
Gulf coast to the TN Valley resulting in low level flow flow to turn
from northwest to more northerly. Dry cold front will move off the
coasts of Carolinas but not have sensible weather affects to land
zones. The anticipate light winds tonight will set up another night
of subfreezing temperatures for most areas so a freeze warning
remains in effect. The exception will be from parts of eastern Duval
southward along the northeast FL coast to Flagler county where
drainage/northwest flow will keep the temps just above freezing
there. In more sheltered locations in these areas, areas to
widespread frost is likely with lows in the lower to mid 30s so
frost advisory is in effect as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Flow aloft will become zonal by Thursday afternoon, as our region
will be downstream of shortwave troughing that will be migrating
eastward across the Ozarks and the Tennessee Valley. Meanwhile,
surface high pressure will gradually weaken over our region and will
slide off the southeastern seaboard on Thursday night. Following
another frosty start to the day, fast zonal flow will spread thin
cirrus cloud cover will overspread our region by the early afternoon
hours, with thicker high altitude cloudiness expected by the late
afternoon and evening hours, especially across southeast GA.
Decreasing wind speeds and rising heights aloft will allow highs to
rebound to the lower 60s for inland locations south of Interstate
10, while highs elsewhere remain in the mid to upper 50s. Decoupling
winds and a lingering dry air mass will likely result in another
light freeze for inland southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley and for
inland locations along the I-10 corridor, where lows will fall to
the lower 30s. Areas to widespread frost are expected for inland
locations, where lows elsewhere will fall to the mid 30s, while a
light onshore breeze developing at coastal locations likely keeps
lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Deepening troughing over the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes
region will begin digging southward on Friday, with Arctic high
pressure diving southward from the Canadian Prairies into the
northern Plains states in the wake of this trough. This deepening
trough will initially induce weak cyclogenesis over the northeast
Gulf / Apalachee Bay on Friday afternoon. Cloud cover will thicken
and gradually lower on Friday afternoon and evening from west to
east, with a few showers possible for locations near the Suwannee /
Alapaha / Ocmulgee / upper Altamaha Rivers towards sunset.
Developing south to southwesterly low level flow will finally boost
highs to near late January climatology, with highs generally
climbing to the 60-65 degree range across southeast GA and the mid
to upper 60s for northeast and north central FL.

Deep troughing will keep digging southeastward through the Ozarks,
Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys on Friday night. Deepening southwesterly
flow downstream of this digging trough will allow for a modest surge
in moisture values from late Friday afternoon through around sunrise
on Saturday, allowing for widely scattered showers to progress
across northeast and north central FL on Friday night, with coverage
likely to be more isolated in nature across southeast GA, where
model soundings indicate that PWATS will remain below 0.75 inches.
Rainfall amounts are expected to remain below one quarter of an inch
at most locations. As weak surface low pressure crosses north
central FL and then emerges over the Atlantic waters towards
midnight, low level flow will become northwesterly, with cold air
advection late on Friday night dropping lows into the mid to upper
30s for inland southeast GA, with 40s expected elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Deep troughing positioned over the Tennessee Valley early on
Saturday morning will pivot across the Deep South on Saturday night
and Sunday, with 500 millibar heights (around 20,000 feet) falling
to around 525 dekameters, which is around 5 standard deviations
below normal for our area. This anomalously deep trough diving into
our region will result in rapid deepening of low pressure off the
North Carolina Outer Banks by Saturday night. Northwesterly winds
will strengthen across our region as low pressure rapidly deepens
(perhaps as low as 970 millibars by Sunday afternoon) off the
southeastern seaboard. The deep trough migrating across our region
will allow for precipitation to wrap around the west side of the
developing surface low, potentially sending enough moisture for snow
flurries over portions of southeast GA and along the I-95 corridor
by late Saturday afternoon and evening. The extent of available
moisture over our area remains in question, while accumulating
snowfall appears more likely closer to the developing winter storm
system over the coastal Carolinas and Delmarva region. We`ll
continue to watch the development of this "wrap-around" moisture
that could brush our area, with uncertainty remaining in the
potential bombogenesis to the northeast of our area.

Wind advisories will likely be needed for the I-95 corridor and
possibly for our entire area by Saturday afternoon as our local
pressure gradient rapidly tightens. Low and mid level cloud cover
will likely be slow to erode due to the "wrap-around" moisture
potentially infiltrating our area, keeping highs in the 40s for
southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, with lower 50s expected
elsewhere. Highs will likely occur during the late morning or early
afternoon hours, with temperatures falling through the 30s across
inland southeast GA and the 40s elsewhere during the afternoon
hours, with strong winds dropping wind chill values into the 20s
during the afternoon hours for inland southeast GA and the I-10
corridor by late afternoon and the 30s for locations south of I-10.

Arctic high pressure spilling southward through the Plains states on
Saturday will gradually weaken as it builds eastward along the
northern Gulf coast by Sunday afternoon. A very tight local pressure
gradient and strong cold air advection will drive Arctic air and
dangerously cold weather into our area as skies clear from northwest
to southeast on Saturday night. Wind Advisories will likely remain
in place along the I-95 corridor throughout the night, with frequent
40-45 mph gusts possible at coastal locations. Extreme Cold Watches
will likely be required for our entire area on Saturday night, as
lows likely fall below daily records for February 1st. Actual air
temperatures will fall to the upper teens for inland locations along
and north of I-10, with low and mid 20s forecast elsewhere. Breezy
conditions inland and windy conditions for locations along and east
of I-95 will drive wind chill values down to the single digits area-
wide and perhaps near zero across inland southeast GA towards
sunrise on Sunday.

Strong low pressure will accelerate northeastward off the U.S.
eastern seaboard on Sunday afternoon and evening as gradually
weakening Arctic high pressure builds eastward along the northern
Gulf coast. Breezy northwesterly winds will continue on Sunday, and
cold air advection will counter sunny skies, with highs only
climbing to the 40-45 degree range for most locations. Wind chills
will remain in the 30s throughout the afternoon hours, possibly not
climbing above freezing all day in southeast GA and coastal
northeast FL. Weakening Arctic high pressure will then migrate east-
southeastward on Sunday night, settling over the FL peninsula
towards sunrise. This will allow our local pressure gradient to
loosen, and winds at inland locations will likely diminish
overnight, resulting in a long duration hard freeze that will likely
extend all the way to coastal locations. Long-term model blends
currently indicate that lows will fall to the 20-25 degree range at
most locations by sunrise on Monday, with widespread frost likely
inland and a light offshore breeze at coastal locations likely
dropping wind chills back into the teens.

Anomalously deep troughing will lift northeastward and away from our
region early next week. Dry northwesterly flow on Monday and Monday
night will turn northerly by Tuesday as another high surface ridge
builds over the Tennessee Valley. Slowly rising heights aloft will
allow temperatures to gradually rebound early next week, with highs
mostly in the 50-55 degree range on Monday and 55-60 by Tuesday.
Decoupling winds at inland locations and a lingering very dry air
mass will likely allow for another long duration, potentially hard
freeze on Monday night and early Tuesday morning inland, with a
light freeze extending to coastal locations. Temperatures should
remain above freezing by Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning
for coastal locations, with a light freeze appearing likely for
inland locations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light to
calm winds will continue through tonight and then building to about
5 to 10 knots sustained from out of the northeast on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure will continue to shift to the north tonight and then
northeast of the area by Thursday. A dry cold front will move off
the coast of the Carolinas tonight and result in briefly elevated
winds to Exercise Caution Levels through Thursday morning. A Gulf
low pressure system is then expected to develop in the Gulf on
Friday, and cross Florida and push into the local waters Saturday,
then move off to the northeast Sunday. As this low intensifies
Saturday, Gale conditions are likely to develop. The strong
northwest to north winds are forecast to subside by late Monday as
high pressure builds into the region.

Rip Currents: A moderate to low risk today and Thursday. Surf
will lower from near 2-3 feet today, to 1-2 feet by Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Critically Low Humidity Inland this Afternoon and Thursday
- Marginally Low Daytime Dispersion Values Inland on Thursday
- High Daytime Dispersion Values Area-Wide this Weekend
- Elevated Nighttime Dispersion Values Area-Wide Saturday Night

Breezy northwesterly transport winds will continue to funnel a cold
and dry air mass into our region, resulting in near critically low
humidity values at most inland locations this afternoon and again on
Thursday afternoon. Transport winds will shift to northerly while
gradually weakening on Thursday, with low mixing heights yielding
poor to marginally low daytime dispersion values, especially at
inland locations. Transport winds will shift from easterly early on
Friday morning to southwesterly by the afternoon hours, with
gradually increasing speeds and mixing heights creating fair to good
daytime dispersion values at most locations.

Chances for showers will increase on Friday night, followed by
strengthening northwesterly surface and transport winds on Saturday,
especially during the afternoon hours. These strong winds will yield
very high daytime dispersion values by Saturday afternoon. Strong
and gusty northwesterly surface and transport winds on Saturday
night will yield very high nighttime dispersion values area-wide,
and speeds will only gradually diminish by Sunday afternoon, with
high daytime dispersion values continuing. An Arctic air mass will
filter into our region on Saturday night, with critically low
humidity values expected at inland locations on Sunday afternoon.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Widespread frost is expected area-
wide tonight and early Thursday morning, followed by areas to
widespread frost at inland locations late Thursday night and early
Friday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below:

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

Saturday, January 31:
JAX 40/1909
CRG 43/1977
GNV 47/1909
AMG 44/1948

Sunday, February 1:
JAX 42/1900
CRG 44/1980
GNV 41/1909
AMG 42/1980

Record Low Temperatures:

Sunday, February 1:
JAX 24/1977
CRG 29/1977
GNV 25/1977
AMG 22/1977

Monday, February 2:

JAX 23/1979
CRG 27/1980
GNV 25/1980
AMG 19/1951

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  27  55  30  60 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  32  54  42  60 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  29  59  35  65 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  34  57  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  28  62  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  27  63  35  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-136-220-236-322-422-
     425-522.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ038-124-
     132-137-140-225-232-237-240-340-533-633.
     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for FLZ125-138-
     233-325-333-433.
GA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Thursday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$