363
FXUS62 KJAX 200225
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
925 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Fog Possible Each Morning through Saturday. Areas Potentially
  Impacted Early Thursday: Inland Southeast GA & I-75 Corridor

- Near Record High Temperatures through Saturday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Early Next Week. Be very
cautious with outdoor fires  check for local burn bans. Severe to
Extreme Drought Expanding Across Inland Southeast GA & the

&&

.UPDATE...

Evening surface analysis depicts high pressure (1021 millibars)
centered along the FL panhandle coast. Meanwhile, a weak and nearly
stationary frontal boundary extends from the southern Plains
eastward across the Ozarks and the Tennessee Valley to the coastal
Carolina region. Aloft...stout ridging positioned over the Bay of
Campeche in the southwestern Gulf was extending its axis north-
northeastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and the
southeastern states. Otherwise, longwave troughing remains situated
over the western third of the nation, with a potent shortwave trough
slowly traversing the Desert Southwest. Latest GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a seasonably dry air
mass remains in place locally, with PWAT values generally around 1
inch across southeast GA and around 0.75 inches elsewhere. Mostly
thin, high altitude cirrus cloud cover continues to spill overtop of
the ridge across the lower Mississippi Valley and the southeastern
states. Temperatures and dewpoints at 02Z ranged from the mid 50s to
the lower 60s at most locations.

High pressure positioned to the west of our area will slowly migrate
east-southeastward overnight and Thursday. Meanwhile, thin cirrus
cloud cover will continue to migrate across our area overnight and
will tend to shift offshore towards sunrise on Thursday. Fog and low
stratus cloud cover should develop as the higher cirrus exits our
area from northwest to southeast during the predawn hours, with the
potential for areas of locally dense fog to develop around sunrise
across inland southeast GA and along the Interstate 75 corridor in
the Suwannee Valley and north central FL. Short-term, high
resolution guidance does suggest that this fog and low stratus could
extend to the U.S. Highway 301 corridor in southeast GA by sunrise,
with impacts to the I-95 corridor possible, especially for locations
north of downtown Jacksonville. Lows overnight will uniformly fall
to the 50s throughout our area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at
least 08Z Thursday. Confidence on low stratus and fog development
remains rather low during the predawn and early morning hours on
Thursday, with restrictions potentially remaining confined to the
west of the regional terminals, with a high altitude cirrus shield
potentially lingering through around sunrise across our area that
may prevent significant fog formation overnight. With this scenario
and uncertainty in mind, we indicated only a brief period of MVFR
visibilities around sunrise at VQQ and GNV for the 00Z TAF issuance,
with VFR conditions elsewhere. Confidence in this solution should
increase for the 06Z TAF issuance as trends in shorter term guidance
come into focus. VFR conditions should then prevail before 15Z
Thursday. Light southwest to southerly winds at the SSI and SGJ
coastal terminals overnight will shift to westerly towards 11Z and
then northwesterly by 15Z, with sustained speeds increasing to
around 5 knots. Light northwesterly surface winds will develop by
14Z elsewhere, followed by winds shifting to northerly around 5
knots by 17. Surface winds will shift to an onshore direction by
18Z, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots through the afternoon
hours.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure centered over the Florida panhandle will weaken while
shifting slowly southeastward over the Florida peninsula by Friday
afternoon and Saturday. A weakening and mostly dry frontal boundary
will then push southward through the Georgia waters on Saturday
night, with this boundary pushing across the northeast FL waters on
Sunday morning. High pressure will build east-southeastward from the
Upper Midwest on Sunday night towards the Mid-Atlantic states by
early Tuesday, with breezy onshore winds developing across our local
waters from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. A stronger
cold front may then push eastward across the southeastern states
next Wednesday and Wednesday night, with southerly winds expected to
develop ahead of this front beginning on Tuesday.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Thursday
              NE FL Moderate Thursday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry, warm weather and increasing humidity trends continue amid
the ongoing drought through the weekend, though no significant
fire weather "watch outs" are expected over the next few days.
Our main concern will be morning fog, which could be locally
dense, and poor afternoon dispersions due to minimal surface and
transport winds. Breezy southwesterly winds will start to
increase with gusts up to 15 mph on Friday as a weak cold front
slowly approaches from the northwest. That front will pass
through Saturday night and Sunday with minimal showers if any at
all.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$