776
FXUS62 KJAX 291114
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
614 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Long-Duration Cold Weather Outbreak Continues through Early
  Next Week. Light Freeze & Frost for Inland Locations on
  Tonight. Life- Threatening Wind Chills Saturday Night & Early
  Sunday Morning. Lows in the Teens Possible Inland and Lower
  20s at Coastal Locations.

- Windy Coastal Conditions Saturday and Saturday Night. Gusts up to
40 MPH at NE FL Beaches. Gale Conditions Across Coastal Waters

- Saturday and Saturday Evening Snowfall Potential Decreasing.
Probabilities for Minor Impacts (Transportation) of 15-25% Across
Southeast GA

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak high pressure and increasing westerly flow in the low levels
will trend temperatures warmer today after the inland freeze this
morning. Highs will warm back to the 60s across most of inland NE FL
and the upper 50s across SE GA. Weak onshore flow will keep coastal
temperatures a bit cooler with highs stay in the mid 50s this
afternoon. There will be abundant sunshine to start the day but high
level moisture with a strengthening upper level jet will build a
thicker shield of cirrus through the afternoon and evening,
especially across SE GA. These clouds may keep temperatures from
cooling as quickly tonight limiting the extent of freezing
temperatures to inland areas of SE GA where a new Freeze Watch has
been issued. Elsewhere, freezing temperatures are less likely but
lows tonight should cool to the mid/upper 30s across NE FL and
support areas to widespread frost development by early Friday; a
Frost Advisory will likely be needed for much of inland NE FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
An area of weak low pressure will develop over the central Gulf
and move northeast across FL Friday. This low will develop
further and strengthen as it moves to the northeast of the area
Friday night into Saturday. As the low moves across FL, rain
showers will be possible from late in the day Friday, through
Saturday night. At this time, it looks like enough moisture will
wrap around the back side of the departing low to bring at
least a low chance of a light wintry mix Saturday into Saturday
night, with greatest chance over SE GA.

The low will continue to intensify as it moves away
to the northeast Saturday night.

With the flow from the southwest ahead of low Friday, highs will
rise to near seasonal levels. Friday night temperatures will be near
a little below average. Once the low moves away to the northeast,
colder air will wrap into region behind it. Highs on Saturday will
be well below normal, with readings falling into the 17 to 22 range
Saturday night. So, a hard freeze is expected all across
forecast area including the beach communities. With winds
elevated behind the low, wind chills Saturday night will drop
into the single digits, placing Saturday night solidly in the
Extreme Cold Warning range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The low will continue to pull away to the northeast Sunday, as high
pressure builds from the northwest.

The high will build overhead Monday and Tuesday. The high will
weaken and move off to the east Wednesday.

This will be a dry period.

Hazards this period will be focused on the cold airmass. Nightly
freezes are expected. Temperatures will be below average for most of
this period, with a recovery to near average for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

High clouds will fill the skies this afternoon but VFR conditions
will remain. Winds will shift northerly this morning and then
northeasterly to easterly behind a weak cold front brushing past the
area.

&&

.MARINE...

Elevated winds continue through the morning as a weak cold front
brushes across the waters. Winds will settle this afternoon as high
pressure becomes situated over the area through Friday night before
a powerful arctic front plunges across the waters Saturday. This
very strong front will bring strong winds and gusts across the
waters Saturday which will strengthen to gale-force Saturday night
as a low pressure organizes and deepens quickly off the coastal
Carolinas. There will be a low chance of a mix of rain and snow
showers across the waters Saturday night as moisture wraps around
the low and this may lead to occasional periods of low visibility.
High pressure will build from the west and over the waters during
the early and middle part of next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday and low-end
Moderate risk at NE FL beaches as surf continues to lower. NE FL
beaches will be at a Low Risk by Friday as surf heights diminish.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure ridging will prevail through Tonight. An area of
low pressure will gather over the central Gulf Friday, then move
across FL Friday night. The low will then strengthen and move
away to the northeast over the weekend. High pressure will
become the prevailing weather feature early next week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
this morning or Tonight. A dangerously cold airmass will settle
in over the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily records challenged by the arctic cold air outbreak are below:

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

Saturday, January 31:
JAX 40/1909
CRG 43/1977
GNV 47/1909
AMG 44/1948

Sunday, February 1:
JAX 42/1900
CRG 44/1980
GNV 41/1909
AMG 42/1980

Record Low Temperatures:

Sunday, February 1:
JAX 24/1977
CRG 29/1977
GNV 25/1977
AMG 22/1977

Monday, February 2:

JAX 23/1979
CRG 27/1980
GNV 25/1980
AMG 19/1951

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  30  60  33 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  54  42  59  41 /   0   0   0  20
JAX  59  37  65  39 /   0   0   0  20
SGJ  57  43  66  44 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  63  36  67  40 /   0   0   0  20
OCF  63  37  69  42 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-031-035-038-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-232-236-
     237-240-322-340-422-425-522-533-633.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ125-138-233-
     325-333-433.
GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
     Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for
     GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$