349
FXUS62 KJAX 130714
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
314 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Showers with Isolated to Widely Scattered T`Storms Today with
  Heavy Rainfall This Morning. Heavy Rainbands ending Late This
  Morning. Heaviest Localized Rainfall Totals of 1-3 inches
  This Morning Along the Southeast GA Coast and I-95 corridor
  north of Jacksonville

- Small Craft Advisories for All Local Waters through Late This
  Morning

- High Risk for Rip Currents at All Area Beaches through Wednesday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Localized Totals of 1-3" Possible through Late this Morning.

- Small Craft Advisories Through Late this morning for Our Local
Atlantic Waters.

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues Today at All Area Beaches.

A broad surface low pressure center is slowly pivoting eastward
across the NE Gulf waters to the west coast of the FL peninsula as a
mid/upper level shortwave crawls east across southern GA to the GA
coast, beginning to be pushed by an amplifying upstream trough
centered over northern MI southward across the Midwest states into
the OH valley. Very high moisture levels indicated by PWATs around
1.80 (noted from the evening 00Z Upper Air Sounding) and isentropic
lift from the the mid/upper trough is producing heavy convergent
rain showers with isolated T`storms along the coast just north
of Jacksonville to Kingsland, St Marys, Cumberland Island, Jekyll
Island to the Brunswick area where pockets of up to 3 to 5 inches
of rain has fallen overnight into early this morning.

Today, the mid/upper level trough will emerge into the Atlantic
coastal waters late this morning and exit to the east by this
afternoon. Another surface low will form near the southern NE FL
coastal waters and move east northeastward. Flow between the low and
weakening high pressure ridging from the Atlantic into the Carolinas
will bring breezy northeasterly winds 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph.

Coastal convergent bands will begin to wane late this morning and
partial sunshine through lifting low cloud cover will allow for
isolated to widely scattered T`storms as the Atlantic seabreeze
moves well inland in the onshore flow. The T`storms will be
battling dry air above 700mb (10,000 ft) as some drier air wraps
around the departing low and will move south to southwest with
locally heavy downpours, lightning and wind gusts to 40 mph
possible. Heaviest rainfall totals of up to 1-3 inches expected
through late morning with only spotty totals of a tenth of an
inch to a half inch later today where T`storms develop this
afternoon.

Highs today will be largely dictated by cloud cover with upper 70s
over a majority of the area along and north of I-10 and the low 80s
southward into north central FL.

Tonight, drier air and clearing skies expected as a dry cold
front approaches from the northwest. Lows will be in the upper
50s over inland SE GA and the low 60s over inland NE FL with mid
60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier conditions return on Thursday behind a dry cold front

Dry weather conditions will be in place through Thursday and Friday,
following the passage of the dry cold front, with initially clear
skies becoming more cloudy on Friday as high pressure moves further
off towards the east and prevailing flow over the forecast area
gradually shifts about to become more southerly by the end of the
period. High temperatures through the end of the week will rise into
the mid to upper 80s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 80s
for areas along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop
down into the 50s and lower 60s for inland areas on Thursday and
will warm into the lower to mid 60s on Friday with min temps
dropping to the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend.

A period of dry conditions through the weekend and into next week as
high pressure settles over the eastern sea board. A persistent
onshore flow could bring a few showers/storms along the Atlantic sea
breeze as it pushes inland, but not expecting the same coverage as
earlier in the week. Warmer temperatures are expect this period with
near normal temperatures during the end of the week with temperatures
in the 80s, with a few locations in the 90s over north central
FL. By the weekend, temperatures will rise to above normal as
most locations rise above the 90F mark, with coastal locations
in the 80s thanks to the onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

A slow moving upper low moving east across Southeast GA will bring
MVFR ceilings with tempo restrictions due to heavy rain showers and
embedded T`storms will continue through 10-12Z this morning with
locally lower LIFR ceilings at SSI.

Breezy east to northeast winds 10-15 knots continue at SSI/SGJ
through 10Z before decreasing to around 10 knots from the north
northeast with decreased winds away from the coast 5-10 knots from
the east northeast. Have PROB30 groups from 10-16Z for IFR level
ceilings for continued onshore moving showers as the system moves
east into the coastal waters by midday with lighter showers inland
at GNV and TEMPO restrictions there for IFR ceilings.

Ceilings will improve this afternoon to MVFR levels away from the
coast to scattered 2.5 kft and broken 4.0 kft, but remain overcast
at 2.0-3.0 kft at SSI and SGJ where VFR conditions will return by 00-
03Z with the system departing well to the east. Winds increase to
around 8-10 knots inland today from the northeast and around 10-12
knots along the coast, decreasing to near calm after 00Z this
evening with scattered ceilings 4.0-5.0 kft and scattered to broken
mid level clouds.

&&

.MARINE...

Frontal boundary will be south of the waters today as a wave of low
pressure moves into the coastal east central FL waters. High
pressure ridge axis extending from the Atlantic into the
Carolinas will weaken as the high departs east into the
Atlantic. Winds from the east today will decrease into the
afternoon and turn more northeasterly as the low moves east
northeastward into early this evening. Decreasing winds and seas
will end small craft advisory conditions nearshore this
afternoon and offshore by this evening. Numerous showers and
isolated T`storms over the waters will also diminish steadily
through the afternoon hours as the low exits to the east.

A dry cold front will approach the waters late tonight and exit
early Thursday morning with high pressure building in from the
northwest with breezy northwest winds nearing exercise caution
levels. The high will build to the north on Friday and then to the
east northeast this weekend with dry conditions and daily seabreeze
circulation increasing winds nearshore.

Rip Currents:

A high risk is in effect today for all area beaches for breezy
onshore winds and elevated surf heights of 4-6 feet at the northeast
FL beaches and 3-5 feet at the southeast GA beaches this morning.
Surf heights will diminish on Thursday, with a moderate risk
anticipated at the northeast FL beaches and possibly a low risk at
the southeast GA beaches as surf falls to around 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- High Dispersions Area-Wide Thursday

- Near Critical Daytime MinRH Values Thursday and Friday Over
  Inland Southeast Georgia

Northeast winds will continue into midweek as high pressure begins
to shift away from the area ahead of a dry cold front. With the
continuing onshore flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will push in towards
inland locations by this afternoon, with scattered to numerous
showers possible along the boundary. Winds shift to become more
northwesterly with the dry cold front tonight. Drier air will limit
any chances of showers or storms through the upcoming weekend.
Near critical daytime minRH values will develop on Thursday and
Friday afternoons for locations across inland SE GA. Elevated
mixing heights will also bring high dispersions area-wide on
Thursday afternoon.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Gusty and erratic winds expected in
and near thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  59  80  54 /  30  10   0   0
SSI  75  64  84  63 /  60   0   0   0
JAX  77  62  86  57 /  60  10   0   0
SGJ  78  66  87  64 /  60  10   0   0
GNV  81  62  86  57 /  40  10   0   0
OCF  82  64  86  61 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ472-
     474.

&&

$$